The good news Byrd, Johnson, Gilmore are expected to be back, Jackson and Spiller are expected to be healthy. The bad news, the Bengals are coming off a huge upset win over the Patriots where they shut Tom Brady out of the end zone for the first time in 52 games. Thad Lewis is probably not going to intimidate them.
Quarterback:
Andy Dalton has struggled this season, he’s having a hard time finding AJ Green in the red zone and he’s getting awfully comfortable checking down to his two TE’s, who combined have caught more balls than the all pro. With pressure and solid LBer awareness Dalton could throw 2-3 INT’s in this one. Thad Lewis is getting his second NFL start, he’s going to be called upon to use his legs to create a breakdown in coverage and to pass just enough to open up the run game. = Bengals
Andy Dalton: 114/175, 65%, 1215 yards, 5TD’s/ 5INT’s
Thad Lewis: NA
Running back:
The production that Dalton lacks in the red zone has largely been picked up by Giovani Bernard and BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who have combined for 5 TD’s. Green-Ellis is a force on 3rd down picking up 17 first downs this season. Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller are going to be called upon to win this game for the Bills, it can be assumed that each back will touch the ball close to 20x (they avg 13/15 carries per game). It should also be noted that Fred Jackson is 4th in the league with 21 first downs, behind only Jamaal Charles & Arian Foster 23, and LeSean McCoy 27. Jackson also has about 30 less carries. = Bills
Fred Jackson: 65/309, 4.8ypc, 4 TD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 45/209, 2.9ypc, 3TD
Wide Receivers/Tight ends:
Bengals receivers are led by AJ Green and rookie TE Tyler Eifert. Green has been held in check all season with only one 100 yard game to date, and he hasn’t found the endzone in two weeks. Eifert and TE Jermaine Gresham will line up at TE but Gresham is becoming more of a WR as his run blocking is a glaring weakness. Robert Woods has emerged as Buffalo’s top receiver, he’s been facing top flight defensive backs and still finding space, the more attention he gets the more Stevie Johnson will emerge. As a whole I think I like the Bills unit better, it’s hard to discount what AJ Greens brings, but outside of Green Cincy’s depth is too inconsistent. = Bills
Robert Woods: 16/265, 2TD’s
AJ Green: 31/361, 3TD’s
Stevie Johnson: 20/254, 2 TD’s
Tyler Eifert: 17/212, 0 TD’s
Oline:
Dalton has hasn’t thrown a TD in 2 weeks (3 turnovers). Against Cleveland the running game averaged less than 3YPC. Against the Patriots they allowed 4 sacks and 8 hurries. Outside of Colin Brown, the Bills Oline has played very well to this point. With Legursky coming back and competing for the LG job I suspect we will see some improvement there as well. = Bills
Dline/LBers:
The Bengals are ranked 10th against the run allowing just under 100 yards per game. They have 13 sacks (14t), 14 tackles for a loss and 5 forced fumble (4 FREC). The Bengals are strong on 3rd down ranked 7th. In comparison, the Bills rank 22nd against the run, which is surprising considering they held McGahee to 2.8YPC and Rice to 3.4YPC. The Bills have sacked the opposing QB 18x (3rd), 15 tackles for a loss, and 3 forced fumbles (2FREC). The Bills are 21st against third down, and on third and long in particular they need to improve. = Tie
Geno Atkins: 9 Tackles, 3.5 sacks
Carlos Dunlap: 21 Tackles, 3 sacks, 1FF
Mario Williams: 15 tackles, 7.5 sacks
Marcell Dareus: 24 tackles, 3 sacks
Defensive backs:
The trio of Terrence Newman, Pacman Jones and Leon Hall is among the leagues best (although Hall is coming back from injury). Crocker and Nelson are mediocre safeties and certainly the weakness in this secondary. The Bills secondary will look very different this week, Byrd and Gilmore are expected to play although I don’t know how much, McKelvin should see regular snaps as well but there’s too much uncertainty, this one goes to Cincy. = Bengals
Coaching:
Marvin Lewis is the second longest tenured coach in the NFL. Since 2003 he is 1-5 against the Bills. 1-5!? I have not done my homework, but I would be willing to be there isn’t a team with a worse record against the Bills during the last ten years. The Buffalo Bills are the second most penalized team in the NFL, they are the worst in penalty yardage. The Bills have a chance in this game, but they need to limit the penalties. = Bengals
Marvin Lewis: 82-82-1 (2011 vs BUF 23-20W)
Doug Marrone: 2-3