Falcons @ Bills (TOR) Preview
Do not sleep on the Atlanta Falcons. The team has underwhelmed this year, but they’re still led by a very good quarterback and IMO a great head coach. They’re going to play young guys, but they’re not quitting on the season, I’m will to bet 95% of Atlantas locker room feels they’re going to beat the Bills, and it’s games like this Marrone needs to keep his team in check and make sure we execute and dominate an inferior opponent.
Quarterback:
Matt Ryan is catching a lot of flack for his 2013 campaign but when consider he’s been without Steven Jackson, Julio Jones and (a healthy) Roddy White for a majority of the season, he’s actually been pretty good. He’s thrown 443 passes this year, just two behind Peyton Manning, and he’s completing 67%. Ryan is still getting the job done, it’s his defense and running game that are killing the Falcons. = Falcons
Matt Ryan: 297/443 for 3,160 yards, 67%, 18TD/12INT, QBR 89.9
EJ Manuel: 127/217 for 1,385 yards, %*%, 8TD/4INT, QBR 82.1
Running back:
I am expecting CJ and Fred to go off in this game. I believe both backs will see close to 20 carries, and with this Falcons defense one missed tackle can result in huge gains. Steven Jackson is coming off his best game since he’s been back from his hamstring injury, rushing for 63 and a TD against the Saints last week. His return has basically removed Jacquizz Rodgers from the running gam. But much like many of the backs the Bills have faced (and neutralized) this year, Rodgers is a threat in the passing game with 41 receptions on the year. = Bills
Fred Jackson: 141/591 yards, 4.2YPC, 6TD
CJ Spiller: 123/507 yards, 41.ypc, 1TD
Jacquizz Rodgers: 79/280 yards, 3.5 ypc, 2TD
Steven Jackson: 74/255 yards, 3.4 ypc, 1TD
Wide Receivers/Tight ends:
Harry Douglas is quietly having a career year, every time he’s been called upon to fill in Atlanta he steps up. He’s not explosive like Julio Jones, but he will go over the middle and he’s sure handed. He’s Ryan’s go-to receiver right now, but a match-up against Gilmore could be scary for Douglas, Gilmore is one of the most physical corners in the game, and Douglas 180lb frame is going to have a hard time against him. At 32 Roddy White seems to have aged 5 years this season, his best game in 2013 boasted 4 catches for 45 yards. With Woods and Johnson back I give this one to the Bills. = Bills
Steve Johnson: 41 471 yards, 3TD
Marquise Goodwin: 16/261 yards, 3TD
Harry Douglas: 60/833 yards, 2TD
Tony Gonzalez: 58/611, 4TD
Oline:
it comes to pass protection the Falcons are very good. As I mentioned earlier Ryan has the 4th most attempts in the league, he’s been sacked only 24x, that’s the 4th best ratio at 5%. The Falcons run blocking is about equal to Buffalo with one exception, the Power Run formations, they’re worst at what their back does best, ranking 24th to the Bills 10th. = Falcons
Dline/LBers:
This is where the wheels start to fall off for the Falcons. The avg. QBR against them is 106.7 (32nd) they have only gotten to the QB 22x (29th), and they allow 4.6 yards per carry (26th). EJ Manuel should have plenty of time to make his reads, and ball control can keep Matt Ryan off the field. Don’t be surprised if you see less hurry-up offense this week. = Bills
The Legend: 112 tackles, 2 sacks, 4INT, 1FF, 1FREC
Kyle Williams: 48 tackles, 7 sacks, 1FF, 1FREC
Paul Worrilow: 80 tackles
Joplo Bartu: 57 tackles, 3.5 sacks
Defensive backs:
Let’s face it if QB’s are averaging a 106.5 QBR against you the secondary is going to taking most of that blame. I like rookie Desmond Trufant but that’s where it ends for Atlanta’s secondary. I predicted the Bills secondary would bounce back last week and I expect them to come away with at least 2 take-aways this week. = Bills
Jairus Byrd: 19 tackles, 1sack, 3INT
Leodis McKelvin: 35 Tackles, 11 PD (I think he gets his first INT this week)
Desmond Trufant: 52 tackles, 13PD, 1INT
William Moore: 61 tackles, 1sack, 1INT, 1FF
I fully expect Atlanta to try and win this one with their running game. They have yet to get it going this year, but Mike Smith has to know that he’s going to lose the matchup in the secondary, Atlanta is too weak at receiver and corner to try and make this a shoot-out. Buffalo will try and manage the clock avoid mistakes and look for their ball carriers to make plays. I’m not sure the Falcons have anyone to match-up with Flash either so he’s a player to watch Sunday.