The Best Chance to Win Now...

[Yasgur's Farm]

"The best chance to win now."

Here's my complaint about this statement... It gives no weight to success in future seasons.

For the sake of argument... Let's say KH gives us the best chance to win. Therefore we can project (again for the sake of argument) 2 more victories in 2006 than if JPL starts... So we win 7 games instead of 5.

How many more games could we have won this year if JPL had been allowed to take his lumps in 2005?

How many more games could we win in 2007 if JPL continues his experience gathering in 2006?

How many more games would the Bills win over the next 5 years if JPL starts over KH?

The philosophy of "the best chance to win now" is fine for a contender... But it only stunts the growth, and sacrafices the future of a team trying to drag itself out of the bottom 10.

Players such as EMo, Milloy, Campbell, Adams and some of the others coming toward the end of their careers only compounded the problem. Nothing against them... But they couldn't afford to invest in the future.

I don't hate KH... I simply want to get started on climbing out of this hole. Start JPL!

[BuffaloBillsStampede]

I think JP gives us our best chance to win this year as well as more to come. If you watch his interviews he looks much more comfortable this year, and just seems like he now knows what it takes to be a leader, and a winner. Kelly Holcomb knows all that too, but I don't think he has the ability to use it like JP does.

[Don't Panic]

Theoretically, if JP has a decent year this year, he could lead us to the playoffs next year. He needs to get the snaps ASAP... that's the bottom line. Anyone, at this point, who pulls for Holcomb is either related to him or is so desperate for a couple more wins that they will forgo the long-term for the now.

[Jan Reimers]

Under the "better chance to win now" philosophy, many great QBs - including Elway, Young, Aikman and Manning - either would never have gotten to play, or their careers would have been seriously stunted.

[LifetimeBillsFan]

I think that the players on the team who complained the most about JP last season thought that the team was a contender and they were upset because they felt that with a veteran QB they could make a run at the playoffs. I think that attitude was based on how they had finished up the previous season and on what they were being led to believe by the team's management and coaches.

While I can understand how they might have felt that way, I think that there are two things wrong with how they dealt with the situation: 1.) for them the goal was to make the playoffs, not to win a Super Bowl and while K.Holcomb or D.Bledsoe may have had a better chance of leading them to a playoff berth, neither could take them to a Super Bowl, which a properly developed young QB, like JP, would have a better chance of doing; and 2.) even if JP was not ready to start or lead them to a playoff berth at the beginning of the season, if every one of the vets had supported him and they had all played up to their potential, if the team was indeed a contender, they could have still made the playoffs (Chicago did with K.Orton!) and, by the end of the season, JP would have been much better prepared to take them on a playoff run.

The fact is that, by refusing to support the young QB, the vets ruined any chance that the team had of making the playoffs. And, if the team really was a contender at the beginning of the season, as they maintained, it certainly wasn't a contender anymore after the vets began to quit on their teammates and coaches. Either way you look at it those players proved themselves wrong about being a contender as the season progressed.

And, in the process, they also damaged the future of the team--which they obviously weren't concerned about--by not allowing the coaching staff to see if they could properly develop JP Losman over the course of the season. Depending on what happens with Losman from here on out, they may have set the Bills franchise back 2-5 years as a result.

If you look at what Orton did with Chicago last season and what has happened with Eli Manning with the NY Giants, you can see what might have been if Losman had been given similar support and opportunities. If you look, you will see that, for as much as he struggled, Losman out-performed Orton last season and Eli Manning's numbers in the second half of last season were not that much better than JP's were--so it's not like those two QBs are all that much more talented or that much better than JP at this stage--yet both Chicago and the Giants made it to the playoffs and the Bills did not. We probably would not be discussing who the Bills' starting QB will be this season if Losman had gotten similar support and a similar performance from his teammates and coaches last season. But, unfortunately, that's not what happened and now JP is going to have to show the new regime at OBD that he is capable of being their starting QB at some point this season and beyond.

[Mr. Pink]

Under the "better chance to win now" philosophy, many great QBs - including Elway, Young, Aikman and Manning - either would never have gotten to play, or their careers would have been seriously stunted.


This isn't completely true.

Elway wasn't the full-time starter as a rookie. Steve Deberg played in 10 games in Elways rookie season of 83.

Steve Young started in 86 as the Bucs starter then didn't become the full-time starter for the 9ers until 1992.

Aikman only played in 11 games as a rookie, then 15, then 12 before starting a full season.

Peyton Manning fits your statement, HOWEVER, he was the first overall pick in the draft. So of course he is going to be taking every snap, because he has to.

[Jan Reimers]

This isn't completely true.

Elway wasn't the full-time starter as a rookie. Steve Deberg played in 10 games in Elways rookie season of 83.

Steve Young started in 86 as the Bucs starter then didn't become the full-time starter for the 9ers until 1992.

Aikman only played in 11 games as a rookie, then 15, then 12 before starting a full season.

Peyton Manning fits your statement, HOWEVER, he was the first overall pick in the draft. So of course he is going to be taking every snap, because he has to.
You kind of neglect the fact that Elway played (and I believe started) 22 games his first 2 seasons, and every game his 3rd season, even though he stunk early in his career; that Aikman played (and started?) 26 games his first 2 years, even though he was terrible; and Manning played from day 1, even though he was awful early on. And Young WAS stunted in his career.

JP has started only 8 games entering his 3rd year - far fewer than Elway, Aikman and Manning - so you have just affirmed my general point, i.e., that if you don't "bite the bullet," but continue to delay a young QB's development based on the "better chance to win now" theory, you'll never give the young player a chance to develop.

[John Doe]

Learning from the bench did not seem to stunt Carson Palmer.

[HHURRICANE]

I think that the players on the team who complained the most about JP last season thought that the team was a contender and they were upset because they felt that with a veteran QB they could make a run at the playoffs. I think that attitude was based on how they had finished up the previous season and on what they were being led to believe by the team's management and coaches.

Good point. Obviously we weren't that good a team last year and MM didn't have the respect of the players. I believe Jauron is a "no nonsense" guy and listening to players that have played for him he will have command of this team. If he goes with JP and we execute a more suitable gameplan I believe that JP will get a fair shake this year. No matter how you feel about the QB situation giving JP a fair shot to prove he is or isn't the future makes sense!!

[Jan Reimers]

Learning from the bench did not seem to stunt Carson Palmer.
I don't remember Palmer, in his 3rd season, battling the mediocre Jon Kitna for the starting job.

In fact, I think Palmer was handed the starting job for good in his second season, even though Kitna had played pretty well the previous year - and better than Holcomb played for us last season.

[feelthepain]

I think some players need to learn from the bench, it didn't hurt Brady or Young. Just because JP is on the bech doesn't mean he won't be the future for the Bills, it may just be he needs to grasp patience, he has the physical skills to play the position. I just think he needs to learn the mental aspect of the game. Thats what I think his weakness is.

[Jan Reimers]

I think some players need to learn from the bench, it didn't hurt Brady or Young. Just because JP is on the bech doesn't mean he won't be the future for the Bills, it may just be he needs to grasp patience, he has the physical skills to play the position. I just think he needs to learn the mental aspect of the game. Thats what I think his weakness is.
You can certainly learn some things from the bench, and JP has had a couple of years where he has spent about 3/4 of his time on the pines. In his 3rd year, if he's really going to put things together and develop into a starting QB, he needs to play. That's the best way to learn, and there is really no substitute for it.

[John Doe]

I don't remember Palmer, in his 3rd season, battling the mediocre Jon Kitna for the starting job.

In fact, I think Palmer was handed the starting job for good in his second season, even though Kitna had played pretty well the previous year - and better than Holcomb played for us last season.

I have posted this before:

The story I heard on TV this last season was Phil Simms relating a conversation that he had with Lewis. He said that Palmer clearly out-performed Kitna in training camp and pre-season. Lewis said it was so obvious that it was a no-brainer.

There was competition and Palmer won.
Palmer was not "handed" the job - he earned it on the practice field.
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[Jan Reimers]

I have posted this before:

Palmer was not "handed" the job - he earned it on the practice field.
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Just proves that Lewis is a lot smarter than Mularkey, which isn't saying much. Lewis simply knew how to sell his choice to the media, the fans and the team.

[ParanoidAndroid]

I think JP needs a little work on his leadership skills as well as his mental game. Those are both things that come with experience, to which I believe he is finally earning his right.

[TigerJ]

One problem is that we can't really know that Holcomb gives Buffalo the best chance to win. "Well he won more games last season," is the stock answer. I don't buy the notion that last season is a better predictor of what Holcomb and Losman are capable of than what they do in training camp this season. It's a different supporting cast, different offensive system, different coaches. Losman has had time to reflect on last season and how he was received by the team, and on his play. He may have matured a great deal over the last 6-7 months. Given his superior athletic ability, it's not a huge stretch to think that he can give the team a better chance to win right now.

[Philagape]

If winning is a factor, then Holcomb shouldn't even be an option. If he starts, then it will be up to the rest of the team to win games. Holcomb can protect a lead, but he won't win any for you. Only JP has the upside to actually make a positive difference in the outcome of games.