Note: I forked this so we could start a clean thread on this specific topic.
"Your point is that Belichick and Levy have had some success prior to being head coaches."
That is pretty much my point save for two minor things....the debate was about second stints as head coaches (maybe that is what you meant) and I would take it one step further and say they had more than "some" success.
BB is/was regarded as a defensive genius. He destoyed us in SB 25 when no other team could stop us. Except for one year, his defenses at NYG were constantly in the top 5/10 (3,4,8,16,5,2). As HC of Cleveland the defenses improved every single year from 20th to reach 9th, until the final year when the team was in the throes of Modell's death grip and moved the team. As DC of the Jets, his defenses were in the top 10 for points allowed during his three years there. So it goes without saying that when he signed up with NE, there was a pretty good chance that he would do well. Granted not all coordinators make the transition successfully, but at least they knew he could create championship defenses.
Levy's case is a little less obvious given he was never a coordinator and his only non-HC experience in the NFL was as a special/kicking teams coach. But his great success as HC in the CFL (HC of the Montreal Alouettes for five seasons and took them to three CFL Grey Cup appearances and two championships) shows he had something under the hood to make him ultimately be a successful coach.
As for Dick's history....
As DC in Jax, the defenses ranked 19th, 15th, 24th and 25th.
As HC in Chicago they ranked 30th, 16th, 13th, 25th and 12th.
As DC In Detroit they ranked 20th.
Not once were his defenses in the top 10 and defense is supposedly his claim to fame. That's one of the primary misconceptions I think people need to realize IMO.
Second, in that special season (2001) the teams they kept to 12.7 (13) or below were (using points scored as the metric, which some would equate to offensive effectiveness):
Vikings: #24 in points scored, 5-11 record
Atlanta: #23 in points scored, 7-9 record
Cards: #20 in points scored, 7-9 record
Cincy: #31 in points scored, 6-10 record
Vikings: #24 in points scored, 5-11 record
Lions: #26 in points scored, 2-14 record
Bucs: #15 in points scored (although 25th overall off ranking), 9-7 record
Lions: #26 in points scored, 2-14 record
Jags: #22 in points scored, 6-10 record
So, that is 9 games against losing teams (except tampa) who had an average points scored ranking of #23.4. Not to mention the Browns scored 21 on them and they were #25 in points scored with an overall off ranking of 30.
So one season of shutting down poor offenses is not nearly enough to convince me of his defensive prowess. Not to mention 2001 was his "glory year" and after looking at who he beat, it loses alot of it's luster now IMO.
In any case, I'm not saying he *can't* be a good HC with 100% certainty. Nobody can. I also am not discounting your points why you have optimism. But from my perspective, there is very little reason at this point in time for me to feel good about him as HC. His actions to date have not impressed me - examples being the way the team has looked undisciplined this late in the season, and the way he took this long to name JP the starter. Of course those are subjective assessments, but in conjunction with the objective data I listed above, there is a much higher probability he will fail than succeed. Again, just my opinion.
Originally posted by John Doe
That is pretty much my point save for two minor things....the debate was about second stints as head coaches (maybe that is what you meant) and I would take it one step further and say they had more than "some" success.
BB is/was regarded as a defensive genius. He destoyed us in SB 25 when no other team could stop us. Except for one year, his defenses at NYG were constantly in the top 5/10 (3,4,8,16,5,2). As HC of Cleveland the defenses improved every single year from 20th to reach 9th, until the final year when the team was in the throes of Modell's death grip and moved the team. As DC of the Jets, his defenses were in the top 10 for points allowed during his three years there. So it goes without saying that when he signed up with NE, there was a pretty good chance that he would do well. Granted not all coordinators make the transition successfully, but at least they knew he could create championship defenses.
Levy's case is a little less obvious given he was never a coordinator and his only non-HC experience in the NFL was as a special/kicking teams coach. But his great success as HC in the CFL (HC of the Montreal Alouettes for five seasons and took them to three CFL Grey Cup appearances and two championships) shows he had something under the hood to make him ultimately be a successful coach.
As for Dick's history....
As DC in Jax, the defenses ranked 19th, 15th, 24th and 25th.
As HC in Chicago they ranked 30th, 16th, 13th, 25th and 12th.
As DC In Detroit they ranked 20th.
Not once were his defenses in the top 10 and defense is supposedly his claim to fame. That's one of the primary misconceptions I think people need to realize IMO.
Second, in that special season (2001) the teams they kept to 12.7 (13) or below were (using points scored as the metric, which some would equate to offensive effectiveness):
Vikings: #24 in points scored, 5-11 record
Atlanta: #23 in points scored, 7-9 record
Cards: #20 in points scored, 7-9 record
Cincy: #31 in points scored, 6-10 record
Vikings: #24 in points scored, 5-11 record
Lions: #26 in points scored, 2-14 record
Bucs: #15 in points scored (although 25th overall off ranking), 9-7 record
Lions: #26 in points scored, 2-14 record
Jags: #22 in points scored, 6-10 record
So, that is 9 games against losing teams (except tampa) who had an average points scored ranking of #23.4. Not to mention the Browns scored 21 on them and they were #25 in points scored with an overall off ranking of 30.
So one season of shutting down poor offenses is not nearly enough to convince me of his defensive prowess. Not to mention 2001 was his "glory year" and after looking at who he beat, it loses alot of it's luster now IMO.
In any case, I'm not saying he *can't* be a good HC with 100% certainty. Nobody can. I also am not discounting your points why you have optimism. But from my perspective, there is very little reason at this point in time for me to feel good about him as HC. His actions to date have not impressed me - examples being the way the team has looked undisciplined this late in the season, and the way he took this long to name JP the starter. Of course those are subjective assessments, but in conjunction with the objective data I listed above, there is a much higher probability he will fail than succeed. Again, just my opinion.
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