Forked Thread: Will Dick be a good HC?

[Mr. Cynical]

Note: I forked this so we could start a clean thread on this specific topic.

The question posed is whether there is any reason to be optimistic about Jauron in the context of previous accomplishments and in comparison to coaches that were relatively unsuccessful in their first stints as NFL head coaches.

Your point is that Belichick and Levy have had some success prior to being head coaches.

Dick Jauron was a successful coach in the NFL for 10 years before he became a head coach, and he was hired as a coordinator again after his first head coaching stint. You don’t survive for that long in the NFL without doing something right. He may not have had the success of Belichick, but he did not have the all stars that Belichick had either, including arguably the greatest defensive player of all time. And he did not have the advantage of having Bill Parcells as his head coach either.

I feel that his 13-3 “coach of the year” season deserves consideration as well. Any coach can have losing seasons due to injury, poor talent, and a having GM that does not fully support the personnel needs expressed by the coach. Jauron experienced all of this during his tenure at Chicago. Pulling off a 13-3 season is special, and all the breaks did not go his way that season (they lost their #1 wide receiver in week 5). It gives some indication that future success can be attained, just as Belichick’s good seasons with the Browns gave that sign and Levy’s CFL seasons foretold.

As for Levy’s success as a CFL coach, it is interesting to note that he did not have conflicts with higher-ups over personnel decisions, since he was in charge of that duty as well. I believe that the GM and the head coach have to be on the same page in order for the coach to succeed. From all appearances, Jauron and Levy are in synch as far as the player acquisitions and general coaching philosophy is concerned.

Outside of that, I like the way that he has handled the job with the Bills so far and I like his selection of assistant coaches.

"Your point is that Belichick and Levy have had some success prior to being head coaches."

That is pretty much my point save for two minor things....the debate was about second stints as head coaches (maybe that is what you meant) and I would take it one step further and say they had more than "some" success.

BB is/was regarded as a defensive genius. He destoyed us in SB 25 when no other team could stop us. Except for one year, his defenses at NYG were constantly in the top 5/10 (3,4,8,16,5,2). As HC of Cleveland the defenses improved every single year from 20th to reach 9th, until the final year when the team was in the throes of Modell's death grip and moved the team. As DC of the Jets, his defenses were in the top 10 for points allowed during his three years there. So it goes without saying that when he signed up with NE, there was a pretty good chance that he would do well. Granted not all coordinators make the transition successfully, but at least they knew he could create championship defenses.

Levy's case is a little less obvious given he was never a coordinator and his only non-HC experience in the NFL was as a special/kicking teams coach. But his great success as HC in the CFL (HC of the Montreal Alouettes for five seasons and took them to three CFL Grey Cup appearances and two championships) shows he had something under the hood to make him ultimately be a successful coach.

As for Dick's history....

As DC in Jax, the defenses ranked 19th, 15th, 24th and 25th.
As HC in Chicago they ranked 30th, 16th, 13th, 25th and 12th.
As DC In Detroit they ranked 20th.

Not once were his defenses in the top 10 and defense is supposedly his claim to fame. That's one of the primary misconceptions I think people need to realize IMO.

Second, in that special season (2001) the teams they kept to 12.7 (13) or below were (using points scored as the metric, which some would equate to offensive effectiveness):

Vikings: #24 in points scored, 5-11 record
Atlanta: #23 in points scored, 7-9 record
Cards: #20 in points scored, 7-9 record
Cincy: #31 in points scored, 6-10 record
Vikings: #24 in points scored, 5-11 record
Lions: #26 in points scored, 2-14 record
Bucs: #15 in points scored (although 25th overall off ranking), 9-7 record
Lions: #26 in points scored, 2-14 record
Jags: #22 in points scored, 6-10 record

So, that is 9 games against losing teams (except tampa) who had an average points scored ranking of #23.4. Not to mention the Browns scored 21 on them and they were #25 in points scored with an overall off ranking of 30.

So one season of shutting down poor offenses is not nearly enough to convince me of his defensive prowess. Not to mention 2001 was his "glory year" and after looking at who he beat, it loses alot of it's luster now IMO.

In any case, I'm not saying he *can't* be a good HC with 100% certainty. Nobody can. I also am not discounting your points why you have optimism. But from my perspective, there is very little reason at this point in time for me to feel good about him as HC. His actions to date have not impressed me - examples being the way the team has looked undisciplined this late in the season, and the way he took this long to name JP the starter. Of course those are subjective assessments, but in conjunction with the objective data I listed above, there is a much higher probability he will fail than succeed. Again, just my opinion.

[Ebenezer]

Re: Forked Thread: Will Dick be a good HC?

truthfully?? he has spent 22 years in the NFL doing yoman's work with poor teams. Being a position coach is a whole different animal than being a head coach. Even on piss-poor teams there can be good or even excellent ass't coaches. Being a HC in this day in age is a huge difference from the 70s. Today, a HC is a manager. He sets philosophy, coordinates the schedule and makes sure things get done. Yes, he has to have football knowledge because in crunch time he may have to make some pretty damn important decisions but for the most part a lot of what a head coach does could be handled by a very organized business manager. Since he has only had one stint as a HC and with a team that never game him much talent I would say that nobody has a clue how well he will do as a Head Coach. Another key to a good HC is bringing in good ass't coaches. GW and MM had a lot of problems doing this.

I think there is more pressure on Levy and Modrak to bring in good players and get the team going that way. IF they bring in junk then nobody would succeed as HC.

[Mr. Cynical]

Re: Forked Thread: Will Dick be a good HC?

I completely agree with alot of what you said about what makes a good HC. That being said, I still say that Dick hasn't shown anything in his past or to date with the Bills to show me that he has the capabilities you mentioned. Granted it's hard to know without the benefit of the regular season under way and seeing how he handles things and how the team is performing (not only W-L but attitudes, discipline, etc)

However, as I mentioned, IMO the current state of the team and the way he has handled a few issues already (JP), in conjunction with all the historical data listed above, tells me he is not a very good or strong leader. Time will tell....

[Dozerdog]

Re: Forked Thread: Will Dick be a good HC?

He's shown me he can produce a 13-3 season with a team that had no QB talent.


No reason why that can't happen again.

[ICE74129]

Re: Forked Thread: Will Dick be a good HC?

He's shown me he can produce a 13-3 season with a team that had no QB talent.


No reason why that can't happen again.

That was the exception not the norm. Did you see that team? How many wins by pure luck on fluke turnovers etc?

I think the best thing he can do is let the coordinators run the show and he administrate them. I feel that is our best chance for success under Jauron.

[justasportsfan]

Re: Forked Thread: Will Dick be a good HC?

That was the exception not the norm. Did you see that team? How many wins by pure luck on fluke turnovers etc?

I think the best thing he can do is let the coordinators run the show and he administrate them. I feel that is our best chance for success under Jauron.

Ah, the "if you take away his longest run "argument.

[Mr. Cynical]

Re: Forked Thread: Will Dick be a good HC?

There's no reason it *can't* happen again, but IMO plenty of reasons it won't, as stated above.

[John Doe]

Re: Forked Thread: Will Dick be a good HC?

There's no reason it *can't* happen again, but IMO plenty of reasons it won't, as stated above.

Your arguments imply that it should not happen at all.

13-3 did happen.

[Historian]

Re: Forked Thread: Will Dick be a good HC?

He's going to do well here.

Really well.

[BidsJr]

Re: Forked Thread: Will Dick be a good HC?

A good executive is not a good executive because they execute the tasks of the people that they appoint below them. THey are good executives because of good judgement as too whom the people are that they appoint in those jobs. Most coaches and executives will make mistakes. That is why most fail. Intelligence and experiance are the things that help poeple grow and learn from mistakes. Dick has both.

Now whether that has equated in excellent hires below him remains to be seen. But that is going to be what determins his success as a head coach for the Bills, not what his defense was ranked for the Bears. That doesn't mean jack.

So far I am pleased with his decision to keep April.

Excited about the design of our offense, haven't seen this type of playbook since the K-Gun.

The D remains to be seen. But the Cover 2 seems to fit our players, and Fewell came from teh #1 ranked D last year. (or close to it)

IMHO I really like his demeanor on the field. Reminds me very much of Kirk Ferentz. Is calm, and that is exactly what JP needs.

[OpIv37]

Re: Forked Thread: Will Dick be a good HC?

He's shown me he can produce a 13-3 season with a team that had no QB talent.


No reason why that can't happen again.

he's also shown 4 losing seasons out of 5 tries.

No reason why that can't happen again.

The exception is not the rule.

[Dozerdog]

Re: Forked Thread: Will Dick be a good HC?

he's also shown 4 losing seasons out of 5 tries.

No reason why that can't happen again.

The exception is not the rule.

And yet again... it all boils down to one's outlook.

Optomistic homers look on the bright side, negative nancys are always going to find gloom and doom.


Same old ****, different day

[OpIv37]

Re: Forked Thread: Will Dick be a good HC?

And yet again... it all boils down to one's outlook.

Optomistic homers look on the bright side, negative nancys are always going to find gloom and doom.


Same old ****, different day

tell me why one winning season carries more weight than 4 losing ones in your eyes. It has nothing to do with outlook- it's illogical.

[justasportsfan]

Re: Forked Thread: Will Dick be a good HC?

tell me why one winning season carries more weight than 4 losing ones in your eyes. It has nothing to do with outlook- it's illogical.

one does not carry more wieght than the other. Both can happen. That's more logical.

[Mr. Cynical]

Re: Forked Thread: Will Dick be a good HC?

Your arguments imply that it should not happen at all.

13-3 did happen.

Correct. It could happen again, but my arguments imply it probably won't happen again. One season (with 8 of the 13 wins against losing teams, btw) is not a trend that supports a high probability for future success. As Op said, it was the lone exception to the rule, not the other way around.