Kerr
09-19-2006, 08:35 PM
Bills, not Dolphins, turning heads early
<table class="bdy" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="770"><tbody><tr valign="top"><td width="10">
</td><td width="440">This year the AFC East was supposed to be a real battle.
The Patriots were not going to waltz away with the title the way they had the past three seasons. A true challenger would emerge, and they would start by dominating a division rival last Sunday. Little did we know that the supposedly rebuilding Buffalo Bills, rather than the much-hyped Miami Dolphins, would emerge as a potential challenger to New England.
The Bills made a series of off-season moves that turned the team into an easy punch line. They hired 81-year-old Marv Levy as their general manager. They hired Dick Jauron as their head coach despite a career record of 36-49. They reached for safety Donte Whitner with the eighth pick on the draft. In doing so, they passed on Matt Leinart and decided to proceed with the disappointing J.P. Losman. Coming off a 5-11 season, this looked like a team that would be battling for the first overall pick, not a playoff spot.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, finished last year with six consecutive wins to finish 9-7. They imported Pro Bowl quarterback Daunte Culpepper to replace Gus Frerotte. Ricky Williams' continued drug problems freed the Dolphins from that potential headache. With the well-respected Nick Saban leading the way and an easy schedule, the playoffs seemed a foregone conclusion.
The first problem for the Dolphins is that, despite a solid record, they were only an average team a year ago. Based on Football Outsiders' DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) metrics -- click here for a longer explanation of DVOA (http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/4911164) -- the Dolphins were the 13th best team in the league (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2005.php) and ninth in the AFC. The offense ranked 21st in DVOA (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff2005.php). The six-game run to end the season only included one impressive victory, a win at San Diego. Expecting a jump to Super Bowl contender was asking for a major improvement.
More importantly, placing all their eggs in Daunte Culpepper's basket less than a year since a massive knee injury appears to be a short-term mistake. Quite simply, on a day when Ronnie Brown played well and the defense was solid if unspectacular, Culpepper thwarted the Dolphins' chances to beat a supposedly inferior opponent.
Correlation does not equal causation, but it is often good enough for radio talk show hosts and Internet pundits. Culpepper had one of the great seasons of all-time in 2004. Last year, Culpepper played a couple of terrible early season games before being injured. Brad Johnson took over, and the Vikings were a much better team. Johnson mostly feasted on inferior defenses, and -- more importantly -- the Vikings' own defense improved radically.
The media is coming around. :up:
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5982100
</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table class="bdy" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="770"><tbody><tr valign="top"><td width="10">
</td><td width="440">This year the AFC East was supposed to be a real battle.
The Patriots were not going to waltz away with the title the way they had the past three seasons. A true challenger would emerge, and they would start by dominating a division rival last Sunday. Little did we know that the supposedly rebuilding Buffalo Bills, rather than the much-hyped Miami Dolphins, would emerge as a potential challenger to New England.
The Bills made a series of off-season moves that turned the team into an easy punch line. They hired 81-year-old Marv Levy as their general manager. They hired Dick Jauron as their head coach despite a career record of 36-49. They reached for safety Donte Whitner with the eighth pick on the draft. In doing so, they passed on Matt Leinart and decided to proceed with the disappointing J.P. Losman. Coming off a 5-11 season, this looked like a team that would be battling for the first overall pick, not a playoff spot.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, finished last year with six consecutive wins to finish 9-7. They imported Pro Bowl quarterback Daunte Culpepper to replace Gus Frerotte. Ricky Williams' continued drug problems freed the Dolphins from that potential headache. With the well-respected Nick Saban leading the way and an easy schedule, the playoffs seemed a foregone conclusion.
The first problem for the Dolphins is that, despite a solid record, they were only an average team a year ago. Based on Football Outsiders' DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) metrics -- click here for a longer explanation of DVOA (http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/4911164) -- the Dolphins were the 13th best team in the league (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2005.php) and ninth in the AFC. The offense ranked 21st in DVOA (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff2005.php). The six-game run to end the season only included one impressive victory, a win at San Diego. Expecting a jump to Super Bowl contender was asking for a major improvement.
More importantly, placing all their eggs in Daunte Culpepper's basket less than a year since a massive knee injury appears to be a short-term mistake. Quite simply, on a day when Ronnie Brown played well and the defense was solid if unspectacular, Culpepper thwarted the Dolphins' chances to beat a supposedly inferior opponent.
Correlation does not equal causation, but it is often good enough for radio talk show hosts and Internet pundits. Culpepper had one of the great seasons of all-time in 2004. Last year, Culpepper played a couple of terrible early season games before being injured. Brad Johnson took over, and the Vikings were a much better team. Johnson mostly feasted on inferior defenses, and -- more importantly -- the Vikings' own defense improved radically.
The media is coming around. :up:
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5982100
</td></tr></tbody></table>