NE39..

[mybills]

Do you think Graham & Wilson will play this week? They're both questionable (with tough injuries), and both important to your team.

[Ickybaluky]

Re: NE39..

I believe both will be ready to play.

Graham is a very underrated part of the Pats offense. His blocking is a big part of both their run game and protection schemes, and he has ability to catch the ball and run with it afterwards. If he missed the game it would mean more playing time for David Thomas, which would probably hurt the running game more than the passing game.

Wilson, if he dresses, may not end up playing as much. He has missed the last couple games, and Artrell Hawkins has done a very good job in his absense. It wouldn't surprise me if Hawkins has passed him as the starter permanently, with Wilson playing in nickle and dime packages.

Wilson has talent and very good coverage skills for a S, but last year he had a down year, and his problems continued in the first couple games of this season. He has missed tackes and been out of position on some big plays the Patriots surrendered. Since Hawkins has been in there, those big plays have disappeared, mainly because he doesn't get out of position and has made the tackles. It wouldn't surprise me if Wilson ends up playing more CB than S in the future, which may actually be more of his natural position.

The Pats main injury of note is to backup C/G Russ Hochstein, their top reserve OL for their inside positions (C/G). He has missed practice all week (the only player missing all of practice). It wouldn't surprise me if the Pats activated C/OG Billy Yates off the PS for the game (they have an open roster spot right now). Yates is a guy they have been developing since last year, and he shows some promise. The Pats have signed him to their PS, but think highly enough of him that they are paying him the full NFL salary for a player of his experience ($425K) to keep him from signing with another team.

[mybills]

Re: NE39..

I haven't seen enough games to know that about Wilson, but I had seen some talent from him in some games before. I guess I assumed he was still a key player.

[Typ0]

Re: NE39..

the pats would beat us even if they were the lions.

[Typ0]

Re: NE39..

you know...when the PATS win this week they will have all but locked up the division and a playoff spot unless the JESTS can catch them. They are going to be motivated this week.

[mybills]

Re: NE39..

quit sniffing NE's butt, Typ0. It's embarrassing me as a Bills fan.

[Ickybaluky]

Re: NE39..

I haven't seen enough games to know that about Wilson, but I had seen some talent from him in some games before. I guess I assumed he was still a key player.

He is still important, and may not lose his job yet. However, he has been a part of some big plays surrendered early on. That was a problem last year, and it was blamed on Rodney Harrison being out and Wilson playing back there with inexperienced players. Late in the year, Hawkins was converted to S and helped the defense improve in terms of not surrendering big plays.

Wilson does have ability, and has shown the cover skills to play CB in the past. He was drafted as a CB, but was shifted to S out of necessity as a rookie when the Patriots released Lawyer Milloy right before the start of the season. He played well there, teamed with Harrison, during their 2003 and 2004 Super Bowl runs.

Last year, after Harrison was injured in week 3, the Pats suffered a bunch of coverage issues that resulted in big plays because guys weren't lined up and playing the scheme right. Wilson was a part of that, not ready to take a leadership role in the secondary because Rodney always handled that.

This year, Rodney has returned, but his problems continued in the first few games. Granted, Harrison isn't the same player he was pre-injury (he did have a very good game against the Dolphins), but Wilson has been the one missing tackles. However, the last couple game they have used Harrison and Hawkins in tandem, and their experience has really helped the secondary gel. Guys are getting lined up and playing the scheme correctly, mainly because with 22 years of NFL experience at S it is hard to fool them. Based on that, I wouldn't be surprised if Wilson's playing time is curtailed.

Wilson does have value, though it may be more as a CB now.

[Ickybaluky]

Re: NE39..

the pats would beat us even if they were the lions.

I disagree, this is hardly a pushover game. Buffalo has played very well at home, for one. For instance, as much maligned as their run defense is, they are only surrendering 68.5 yards rushing per game at home.

Buffalo is a team that isn't built to play from behind, because their offense struggles scoring points. When they get a lead, they can run the ball more and it takes pressure off their defense. Their defensive speed becomes more of an advantage because teams are forced to play catchup.

Buffalo's troubles come when the fall behind. Then teams can pound them up front with the running game and their offense becomes one-dimensional.

The team that gets the early lead has a big advantage in this game. I think it will be important to score points early on.

[kernowboy]

Re: NE39..

I'm glad to see someone giving Graham the credit he is due. He is underrated.

I wonder however that having drafted Mills and Thomas and having Watson as well, whether the Pats will try to resign him. Having had the franchise on their kicker, are they able to franchise Graham now? I think if the Pats let him hit the market as he current will do as a Free Agent, he'll be gone, hopefully to us

[Typ0]

Re: NE39..

I disagree, this is hardly a pushover game. Buffalo has played very well at home, for one. For instance, as much maligned as their run defense is, they are only surrendering 68.5 yards rushing per game at home.

Buffalo is a team that isn't built to play from behind, because their offense struggles scoring points. When they get a lead, they can run the ball more and it takes pressure off their defense. Their defensive speed becomes more of an advantage because teams are forced to play catchup.

Buffalo's troubles come when the fall behind. Then teams can pound them up front with the running game and their offense becomes one-dimensional.

The team that gets the early lead has a big advantage in this game. I think it will be important to score points early on.

I think 85% of the PATs practice time this week is going to be spent on trying to beat our kicking game and you win by 30.

[Ickybaluky]

Re: NE39..

I'm glad to see someone giving Graham the credit he is due. He is underrated.

I wonder however that having drafted Mills and Thomas and having Watson as well, whether the Pats will try to resign him. Having had the franchise on their kicker, are they able to franchise Graham now? I think if the Pats let him hit the market as he current will do as a Free Agent, he'll be gone, hopefully to us

They have been negotiating with Graham, but he would like to test the FA market. He is a guy they would like to bring back. Belichick thinks highly of him, comparing his blocking ability to Mark Bavaro.

If he does go to FA, the Pats will be competitive in trying to re-sign him. If a team wows him with an offer, they may let him go. It wouldn't surprise me if he ended up with Denver. He fits their scheme well (he would probably fill the role Stephen Alexander currently fills), and he is from that area. He went to college at Colorado and his father played for the Broncos.

The Pats do have the franchise tag and may use it with either Graham or Samuel, who is emerging as a good CB. Obviously, the franchise tag for a TE is a lot cheaper than that of a S. I think the Pats would like to bring back both guys, but they aren't going to pay beyond what they think is market value. They are negotiating with Samuels agent, but Graham seems content to test the market and there haven't been much done there (at least, that is what is reported).

One thing that hurts Graham's value a little is he is banged up a lot. He has suffered shoulder injuries several times. He has never played a full season, and has already been banged up this year. He also hasn't displayed great hands, and has never caught a lot of passes (although part of that is scheme, since he is called to pass block a lot when the Pats go max-protect).

On the plus side, he is a real physical player, a very hard worker, has a team-first attitude and is considered a high-character lockerroom guy. When he catches the ball, he does a great job running after the catch. He is a bull of a runner, tough to bring down.

[kernowboy]

Re: NE39..

I just think he'd be an upgrade over Royal, and a better character option that Stevens. There is Reggie Kelly but he's again a blocker. I think we should have made a bigger play for Aaron's brother, Matt. There is always Zach Miller, Greg Olsen or Joe Newton in the draft but I don't really want to go with a high pick here if we can avoid it.

Would the Pats make a hard run at retaining him considering their quality depth? Money spent here cannot go elsewhere and I think they'll want to look at WR, and LB

[mybills]

Re: NE39..

I disagree, this is hardly a pushover game. Buffalo has played very well at home, for one. For instance, as much maligned as their run defense is, they are only surrendering 68.5 yards rushing per game at home.

Buffalo is a team that isn't built to play from behind, because their offense struggles scoring points. When they get a lead, they can run the ball more and it takes pressure off their defense. Their defensive speed becomes more of an advantage because teams are forced to play catchup.

Buffalo's troubles come when the fall behind. Then teams can pound them up front with the running game and their offense becomes one-dimensional.

The team that gets the early lead has a big advantage in this game. I think it will be important to score points early on.

Thank you for this sane post!
Although, I'm expecting us to have trouble opening holes for Willis.

[Mr. Cynical]

Re: NE39..

I believe both will be ready to play.

Graham is a very underrated part of the Pats offense. His blocking is a big part of both their run game and protection schemes, and he has ability to catch the ball and run with it afterwards. If he missed the game it would mean more playing time for David Thomas, which would probably hurt the running game more than the passing game.

Wilson, if he dresses, may not end up playing as much. He has missed the last couple games, and Artrell Hawkins has done a very good job in his absense. It wouldn't surprise me if Hawkins has passed him as the starter permanently, with Wilson playing in nickle and dime packages.

Wilson has talent and very good coverage skills for a S, but last year he had a down year, and his problems continued in the first couple games of this season. He has missed tackes and been out of position on some big plays the Patriots surrendered. Since Hawkins has been in there, those big plays have disappeared, mainly because he doesn't get out of position and has made the tackles. It wouldn't surprise me if Wilson ends up playing more CB than S in the future, which may actually be more of his natural position.

The Pats main injury of note is to backup C/G Russ Hochstein, their top reserve OL for their inside positions (C/G). He has missed practice all week (the only player missing all of practice). It wouldn't surprise me if the Pats activated C/OG Billy Yates off the PS for the game (they have an open roster spot right now). Yates is a guy they have been developing since last year, and he shows some promise. The Pats have signed him to their PS, but think highly enough of him that they are paying him the full NFL salary for a player of his experience ($425K) to keep him from signing with another team.

What's your take on Gabriel? Do you think he steps up this week?

[Ickybaluky]

Re: NE39..

What's your take on Gabriel? Do you think he steps up this week?

I think Gabriel has emerged as their best WR right now, which says as much about the Pats WR corps as about Gabriel. Gabriel has probably further along than any other outside WR and will play the most, usually lining up on the strong side of the formation (Z WR). That usually is the side Terrance McGee lines up on.

The X WR (weak side, where Deion Branch usually played) has been split between Caldwell and Brown, but Brown has been playing there less. I think they are settling into using Brown in the slot more (Y WR), and Chad Jackson and Jabar Gaffney will rotate in with Caldwell at the X.

If that is true, and it seems to be the way it is shaking out, Gabriel will run some deep routes. I think if the Pats are able to throw downfield this week it will be Gabriel running the pattern, with the TE running a seam route to tie up the S.

So, I could see him hitting a big play, which should help his yardage numbers. He will probably catch about 4-6 balls. If he hits a big play or two he will have good yardage as well. Moving forward, I see him as a real similar player to David Givens in terms of his fit in the offense, although he is more comfortable running vertical.

Chad Jackson is the wild card. He is by far their most talented WR, but he missed so much time he was way behind. If he has used the bye week to improve the coaches confidence in him you will see him play a lot more, but I think he will see more time at the X (basically taking Deion Branch's place).