Trade down in the draft!! [Archive] - BillsZone.com

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kernowboy

10-24-2006, 01:47 AM

It looks like coming up to this years draft, if things remain as they have been going this season, we will be at a similar spot in the draft to last year

One or two of those who remain in the Losman camp want a first round pick of Joe Thomas, the big Badgers LT who carries a similar grade to D'Brickshaw Ferguson.

A large proportion have called for the latest nice shiny QB to come out of college including Brady Quinn, Troy Smith or Brian Brohm followed by a OL pick in the second though I have also seen some suggestions of a LB in the 2nd.

I have had a one point called for a LB in the first, and an OT in the 2nd but the Offensive play have told me here is where the focus on the first two rounds must be.

I have even seen those call for a WR.

What I suggest may seem radical but bare with me and I hope you can see the reasons behind.

1) We need a franchise LT. Whoever we have at a QB will continue to be panicked into poor decisions until we control the offensive line of scrimage. I have seen a Jason Peters switch being advocated, but it has been said that Peters has been kept on the right as he has shown a lack of concentration at times, which would be unrecoverable from against the speed rushers coming from the position at LT. Free agency looks very poor at the moment. The isn't an LT who wouldn't be massively over paid or could do a franchise job.
Whilst there are those who call for a low round pick here, most franchises have a 1st or 2nd round pick here. The big exception is the Broncos but Lepsis is a very light, and exceptional player
2) We only have 6 picks and numerous gaps. We want to change two starting OL players, we may need to change two LBs or risk overpaying for two veterans who may be on the downside of their careers, we arguably need to upgrade at No2 WR, and need to get at least veteran assistance at CB and FS, to help bring Youboty and Simpson along. Despite the cap increasing, it still exists.
There are options at DB and WR in Free Agency.
3) No8 is quite a difficult position. There does tend to be 6-7 elite picks and then there is always a chance that we'll over pay.
4) The recovering of the side into a playoff team will likely take this draft, the next free agency and the 2008 draft. At the moment 2007 free agency does look patchy and on both the lines very poor with only Eric Steinbach carrying a worthwhile upside on the offense and Dwight Feeney on the defence. It could be argued that our problem on the defensive line is not the ends but the middle and whilst a great signing, Feeney will only assist but not solve the principle problem. Plus cost huge amounts.

I therefore thoroughly recommend we considering trading down. We have a number of lists speculating about who will go before where we might pick, but equally interesting should be the needs below of teams who may want to move up.

1) Our number one need remains a franchise LT. Any QB we go for needs to have some sort of protection. The following players carry a Round 1 grade and include Thomas, Sam Baker (if he declares) Levi Brown, Jake Long (if he declares) Justin Blaylock (more of a guard/RT) and Doug Free. Those with a Day1 grade include, Mike Otto, Joe Staley, Arron Sears and Ryan Harris.

2) Outside of the current top3 at Quarterback there is Drew Stanton, Kavin Kolb, Trent Edwards, and Chris Leak. There is no guarantee that these picks won't be the next Akili Smith or Ryan Leaf. Equally they could be the next franchise QB. At the very least we get
i) Proper competition for JP Losman.
ii) A decent backup who is better than merely just emergency use and Craig Nall will only ever be a backup and mop up star.
iii) Future trade value. Our pick or JP have future trade value even if it might be on Day2, Nall has zero

3) We still have lots of gaps outside of LT including LB and probably would need a Day1 pick here if only for depth if one of the starters TKO or Fletcher go

Consider the following:

Trading down with the Bucs
Is Gradowski the QB of the future? It may well be the Bucs will want to move up for one of the big 3. We could trade down with them to the low teens, still get a quality franchise LT like Baker, Brown or Long and get an extra Round3 pick

Trading down with the Cowboys
They have Drew backed up by Tony Romo. JJ will be looking at possibly dealing with this issue. We can trade down to the high teens, still grab any one of the three tackles above and would get an extra Round2 pick and maybe something on Day2 as well

Trading down with either the Ravens or the Rams
How much do McNair or Bulger have left in the tank? Will the Ravens rehab Boller? If we drop to the 20s we can still grab Doug Free, the last of the Round1 stud LTs who I for one would be happy with, get an extra Round3 and also a Round 1 or Round 2 in 2008

Unless Branch, Oram or Bryant come out, the tackles coming out this year are merely undersized, adequate and will be overpaid for. Unless there is a surprise Day2 guy, we are kind of stuck in the middle of the DL.

But I for one think a draft for us needs to give our team for a long term future, and not leap at the latest shinny college kid. A Ferrari would be nice but not terribly useful if you really need an SUV and can get a Corvette in Round2. Who may turn out to be a Porsche or a Ferrari himself. I'd like the draft to go

2007
R1. Franchise LT
R2. possible QB
R3. LB
extra Day 1 pick - OL

2008
R1. DT or WR
R2. WR or DT
extra top 2 round pick - flexibilty to move around
R3. BPA

Whilst of course the above can all be turned on its head, by the change of fortune that any of the other 31 teams may suffer or enjoy, or by the change in the Free Agency market caused by cuts and cap issues, this is how I see things going into the Bye Week.

It would just be nice to see the Bills maximise the value of the draft, not see others maximise it at our expense. Consider all the great picks that have also been made by teams who trade down.

Ron Burgundy

10-24-2006, 02:57 AM

Sure, sounds great! Except we don't know where we pick, or which free agents will be available, or who is entering the draft or staying in school, or if anyone is willing to trade down, or what kind of injuries are going to pop up between now and then, or where these kids will be ranked and who will be drafted by whom, or what kind of holes we can cover or that we lose in free agency. But you should definitely thoroughly recommend we trade down...it just seems so obvious now.

Night Train

10-24-2006, 05:29 AM

Good post, although I don't think QB Drew Stanton is outside of anyones Top 3.

Our Top Priorities, IMO, are OT, OG, MLB and DT ( in any order ) . Playing good D and running the ball is the first thing you strive for, when rebuilding.

We have drafted heavily in the skill positions the last few years and need more size in the trenches. Plus the dynamic/big MLB is a crying need, with Fletcher leaving with the expiration of his contract.

Jan Reimers

10-24-2006, 05:58 AM

There are still 9 games to be played. It is obvious that we need help on both the O and D lines, and that we will probably let Clements walk, but beyond that lie many unknowns.

I still think it is premature to write off JP; Spikes continues to recover from his injury, and may or may not get close to where he once was; McGee may be in a slump, or may simply not be the CB everyone thought he was; we have no idea of what Fletcher might demand; Everett may or not be the pass catching TE we thought we drafted; etc.

In other words, we have certain glaring weaknesses, but also a lot of young players who still may develop, and some veterans who may or may not be back. We also have the Free Agency signing period before the draft. It thus seems a little early to try to predict next year's draft.

LtFinFan66

10-24-2006, 06:00 AM

Bucs do have Simms still lets not forget

Night Train

10-24-2006, 06:08 AM

Bucs do have Simms still lets not forget

I'd never want him.

He's always played small ball in big games, dating back to college.

If JP doesn't work out, use Nall as a caretaker until the next young QB is drafted or aquired.

Teams want a young QB with an actual upside and a spleen.

LtFinFan66

10-24-2006, 06:09 AM

I didn 't mean you would want him....just meant the Bucs may not be looking to trade up for a QB

TacklingDummy

10-24-2006, 07:25 AM

1) Our number one need remains a franchise LT. Any QB we go for needs to have some sort of protection. The following players carry a Round 1 grade and include Thomas, Sam Baker (if he declares) Levi Brown, Jake Long (if he declares) Justin Blaylock (more of a guard/RT) and Doug Free. Those with a Day1 grade include, Mike Otto, Joe Staley, Arron Sears and Ryan Harris.[/B]

2) Outside of the current top3 at Quarterback there is Drew Stanton, Kavin Kolb, Trent Edwards, and Chris Leak. There is no guarantee that these picks won't be the next Akili Smith or Ryan Leaf..[/B]

And there's no guarantee that Thomas, Baker, Brown, Long, Blaylock, and Free are not the next Mike Williams.

I agree on trading down if the Bills are not picking a QB/WR. If they have a top 5 pick and they pick a QB/WR and the pick turns out to be a bust I wouldn't complain too much. If they waste a top 10 pick on a O-linemen and the guy turns out to be the next Mike Williams, I would be pissed off more.

ICE74129

10-24-2006, 07:29 AM

NO! DO NOT TRADE DOWN!!! Stay where you are or move UP to get a top stud at LT. I am sick of this ****. Every ****ing year its 'QB this, WR or CB that' or its 'move down' **** that ****. Get a god damn stud at LT and lets end over a ****ing decade of futility on our OL!

HHURRICANE

10-24-2006, 08:21 AM

Okay let me make this easy for anyone that wants to win now instead of 5 years from now.

1) Drafting OL's are as risky as drafting QB's. People with short memories probably don't remember Mike Williams. Robert Gallery has been awesome in Oakland as well. OL's need to be filled through FA and later rounds.

2) You draft DE's and LB's early. These type of players have quicker learning and development curves and can be contributors from day one.

3) Considering that the last 5 of 6 drafts have been spent on skill positions maybe we can waste a 2nd day pick on a WR to repace Andre Davis. that would be it in this draft.

We need to upgrade and replace the Denney/Kelsay experiment. We need to replace Tim Anderson, Fletcher, and Spikes. That's alot of Draft picks on just those players.

ICE74129

10-24-2006, 08:31 AM

Gunzlingr

10-24-2006, 08:59 AM

ICE74129

10-24-2006, 09:12 AM

Mandarich.Thats one. We need a stud LT and the draft is the only way to get one.

We don't have scott Pioli doing our scouting...we have tom modrak. You really trust him to find a stud LT outside of round one? I know I don't.

kernowboy

10-24-2006, 09:22 AM

What I saying is that we will likely be in the first half of the draft. And therefore trading down becomes an option.

There are more quality OL linemen at tackle in this years draft than in many a previous year. LT is our No1 need. If we cannot protect the Qb there seems little point in changing them.

However the difference between say Thomas and say Free, is not a thousand miles let alone a million. Thomas can be our LT for the next 10 years but so can Free. Like a number of guys have said there are no guarantees but for every failure you can highlight a glowing success so its an irrelevant comparison. It comes down to judgement but also to luck.

We must maximise the value of our high draft pick to acquire extra picks to have on Day 1 to fill impending needs elsewhere like at LB for example.

the problem on our DL starts in the middle not on the sides. Schobel is very good, Denney and Kelsay are serviceable, Hargrove has potential. This years DTs unless Branch, Oram or Bryant come out, are all at about 300lbs or under, much as we currently have. Picking one of these guys early is not maximising the value of the pick. Only if one of the 3 juniors come do we use a Day1 pick.

That is why I am suggesting maximising the value of the draft and seeing if we can get a extra high pick in 2008. Our own Round 1 pick in 2008 will I am optimistic to say be lower, around 17-24 so an extra pick will allow us to move up and pick the best WR, or DT or DE.

On the free agency side we can begin to speculate who will be available as they are scheduled to be UFA. I expect the Steinbach's or Freeney's or Briggs to be franchised or have the transition tag but we can begin to speculate on who we know will be available and how hard a side will try to resign them. For example, Daniel Graham is an UFA but so is the CB Samuel. They both can't be franchised and how much of an effort will the Pats make for the TE with three others on the roster?

I, for one, think Marv will not look again in Free Agency at quantity over quality. I hope we can sign one or two top names especially if a younger LB or a quality DT become available, but I believe that the better teams are still built through the draft and I hope Marv goes down this route.

GFLuNEEDit

10-24-2006, 09:34 AM

They should have traded down last year.

I dont care that they started these two first rounders. These two players dont seem like value for where they were taken.

It might be too early to say this but I think this draft will go down as a botch job.

Just because these two end up playing doesnt mean the Bills got the value they should have gotten.

kernowboy

10-24-2006, 10:08 AM

They should have traded down last year.

I dont care that they started these first two rounders these two players dont seem like value for where they were taken.

It might be too early to say this but I think this draft will go down as a botch job.

Just because these two end up playing doesnt mean the Bills got the value they should have gotten.

Agreed

I know everyone thinks the big misses were Cutler and Leinart but the monster miss was Haloti Ngata.

Because people looking forward would see that unless Juniors came out the next big mobile DTs weren't available until 2008

We could have Manning at safety or Colledge at LT in the 2nd and then Butler at OT or Anthony Smith at S in the third.

Ngata was a huge miss

Tatonka

10-24-2006, 10:30 AM

looks like the need for a stud left tackle just went away.. peters is our new stud left tackle.

Tatonka

10-24-2006, 10:31 AM

now assuming pennington can play..

we need stud guards.. two of them.

damn i wish we had nick mangold playing guard for us righ tnow.

kernowboy

10-24-2006, 10:33 AM

looks like the need for a stud left tackle just went away.. peters is our new stud left tackle.

Assuming Peters can play like a stud at LT?

I'm always a little concerned about someone coming in doing well initially and then have the wheels fall off.

5ths the charm

10-24-2006, 11:00 AM

Why not trade down to get the best available OT before pick 23, that gives you a quality Tackle that will be ready by mid 2007 or earlier depending on athleticism.
Select a quality QB or CB in the second.
Take the extra pick (likely a third or third and sixth if low enough) and get a DT that deosn't make lots of tackles but from a team that doesn't have success running up the middle by other teams, that's what we need, force everything outside, where speed matters.
With the other third get a LB or CB, then back fill with LB's, CB's and WR's but only those with great hands, not neccessarily speed. We have speed, just no one to catch the ball. Let go the desire to get TE's, DE's, RB's or Safeties.

GFLuNEEDit

10-24-2006, 11:10 AM

Agreed

I know everyone thinks the big misses were Cutler and Leinart but the monster miss was Haloti Ngata.

Because people looking forward would see that unless Juniors came out the next big mobile DTs weren't available until 2008

We could have Manning at safety or Colledge at LT in the 2nd and then Butler at OT or Anthony Smith at S in the third.

Ngata was a huge miss

The two players they picked up look like utility players.

They just don't strike me as impact players you take that high.

Even if Losman was to have a breakthrough, Cutler was the pick.

There is no set back having two QBs. If Cutler and Losman were both to come through you would end up getting more than a first rounder in a trade for one of them.

There is just no logic to passing up on a QB with that kind of promise when you aren't sure where you stand.