Great Article On Losman

[Romes]

http://www.wgr550.com/column.php?id=0385

I feel this article really puts things into perspective. I agree with 100%

the main point is that even though we'd love to come to some conclusions about Losman and we'd love to think we know right now what we have. the truth is that we have to sit through some more painful Sunday's before we'll know anything about the guy we currently have under center.

[shelby]

What a difference three straight losses make. Forget that two of which came against NFL defensive "geniuses" in Lovie Smith and Bill Belichick. Forget that he beat the Dolphins and Vikings, or that a porous run defense ruined a potential upset of New England on opening day. Even forget that Losman almost commandeered a two-touchdown comeback against the Jets, stopped by a 90-second hurricane with under two minutes to play.

People say they want to see improvement. Well, so far this year, Losman's completion percentage has gone from 49.6 to 61.9, he's almost equalled his 2005 yardage output (1340-1314). His yards per attempt is up nearly a yard, and his QB rating — whatever that means — is 15 points higher. And, technically, his record is better. (2005, 2-7; 2006, 2-5).

All in two less games (but he does have an accent. Curses!)

Has he regressed in the last three games? Certainly. A lot. But as stated before, two of three were against the No. 2 and 4 defenses in the NFL, with his own defense giving hand-outs as often as the Salvation Army.

Now I'm not saying JP Losman is the answer. Go back and read that again. Now, again. Are we clear?

I'm also not saying he isn't the answer, because before the season I was one of the many who demanded a full year out of him. I hate the sacks, but I love the 30-second scrambles that end in a completion. I hate the picks, but I love the 100-yard passes (I'm really not loving Andre Davis right now, by the way).

It took Drew Brees 28 starts to look great. Jake Delhomme needed 22, and fumbled 15 times his first full year as a starter. Matt Hasselbeck? 29 starts after appearing in 32 games as Brett Favre's back-up (Favre, coincidentally, regressed after a break-out first year to toss 24 picks his second season. Should've played Ty Detmer, or brought back Don Majkowski, huh)?

Thanks for posting this...i agree completely.

[Typ0]

http://www.wgr550.com/column.php?id=0385

I feel this article really puts things into perspective. I agree with 100%

the main point is that even though we'd love to come to some conclusions about Losman and we'd love to think we know right now what we have. the truth is that we have to sit through some more painful Sunday's before we'll know anything about the guy we currently have under center.

since we already know sundays are going to be painfull why bother?

[Saratoga Slim]

Yup. Give him through the end of the season, and he'll be in the same ballpark of starts that it took Delhomme, Elway and the other QBs mentioned in the story to show that they were going to be something special.

What the hell, its not like we have a choice anyway. Our only options are to be patient, or be pissed. Being pissed doesn't make the games any more fun to watch, so might as well sit back and let the kid play for nine more weeks. When the season's done, we can take stock.

[Mitchy moo]

Our only options are to be patient, or be pissed. Being pissed doesn't make the games any more fun to watch, so might as well grin and bear it for 9 more weeks.

or both

[Romes]

since we already know sundays are going to be painfull why bother?

Because there is always the hope that it'll turn around.

if there isn't then I see no point in watching.

[shelby]

Because there is always the hope that it'll turn around.

if there isn't then I see no point in watching.
Unless you're a sucker for self-inflicted punishment.




:ontome:

[Mr. Miyagi]

:bf1: Great article! Hit the nail on the head!

[Romes]

Unless you're a sucker for self-inflicted punishment.




:ontome:

...or that. :spank:

[justasportsfan]

my sentiments exactly. great find. :up:

[PECKERWOOD]

:bf1: Great article! Hit the nail on the head!
Who hit Nall on the head?

[Devin]

That was a great read, writer made some great points.

[Mr. Miyagi]

Who hit Nall on the head?
Tonya Harding

[Tatonka]

:up:

[scott51]

I agree! I would hate to see the Bills bench JP, release him at the end of the season, get signed by the Dolphins, throw for 400 yards and take the Phins to the Superbowl!

[Jan Reimers]

Great article. I couldn't have said it better, and God knows I've tried.

[PECKERWOOD]

GFLuneedIT, will come and destroy this thread in... 5...4...3...2..1

[shelby]

Who hit Nall on the head?
:laughing:

[GFLuNEEDit]

Yeah but who is Nick Mendola .
His opinion doesnt carry anymore weight than than anyone here.

The inclination is to attempt to point to quarterbacks that supposedly were slow to develop.

For every QB that statistically didnt look like much in his first x starts and still stuck there are 20 on the scrap heap.

The key word in that is statistically, everyone of the QBs Mendola mentions showed signs that Losman isnt showing.

So if you want to say that Losman has about a 1 in 20 shot of making it, I can agree with that.

WRG....that's another story... the two hosts in the morning are morons . I dont think the two of them put together have 100 points in IQ .They sound like they are 14 years old.

The Bulldog is probably the most level headed of the group.

[PECKERWOOD]

hahahaha, right on time.

[GFLuNEEDit]

Intellect is always on time.

[Jan Reimers]

For every QB that statistically didnt look like much in his first x starts and still stuck there are 20 on the scrap heap.

The key word in that is statistically, everyone of the QBs Mendola mentions showed signs that Losman isnt showing.

So if you want to say that Losman has about a 1 in 20 shot of making it, I can agree with that.


Playing QB in the NFL is one of the most difficult things in all of sports to do, and especially to do well. The guys who came in and were good right away are few and far between. Many, in fact, struggled mightily over more starts than JP has had before they made it. But those are just my empirical observations.

But you, as a statistician, have obviously identified the variables that are indicative of success - the ones that you claim JP isn't showing - and have done some correlations, or regression modeling, or quantitative analyses over a broad range of QBs, that show he has a one in twenty chance of succeeding.

Good for you. Now the rest of us can relax.

[X-Era]

Yeah but who is Nick Mendola .
His opinion doesnt carry anymore weight than than anyone here.

The inclination is to attempt to point to quarterbacks that supposedly were slow to develop.

For every QB that statistically didnt look like much in his first x starts and still stuck there are 20 on the scrap heap.

The key word in that is statistically, everyone of the QBs Mendola mentions showed signs that Losman isnt showing.

So if you want to say that Losman has about a 1 in 20 shot of making it, I can agree with that.

WRG....that's another story... the two hosts in the morning are morons . I dont think the two of them put together have 100 points in IQ .They sound like they are 14 years old.

The Bulldog is probably the most level headed of the group.


ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!

I got more entertainment from reading a pro's fiction than yours.

[jmb1099]

Intellect is always on time.
:roflmao:

[GFLuNEEDit]

But you, as a statistician, have obviously identified the variables that are indicative of success - the ones that you claim JP isn't showing - and have done some correlations, or regression modeling, or quantitative analyses over a broad range of QBs, that show he has a one in twenty chance of succeeding
No I didnt say that .

I said that they are attempting to dig up some sort of obscure correlations.

I'm going by what I am seeing on the field.

Like what I saw in Detroit as just one example

[shelby]

What about what you saw in Miami, Minnesota, and the Jets game?
Was his performance there a fluke?

[Philagape]

What about what you saw in Miami, Minnesota, and the Jets game?
Was his performance there a fluke?

And at New England.

He still has more good games than bad ones.

[Saratoga Slim]

Yeah but who is Nick Mendola .
His opinion doesnt carry anymore weight than than anyone here.

The inclination is to attempt to point to quarterbacks that supposedly were slow to develop.

For every QB that statistically didnt look like much in his first x starts and still stuck there are 20 on the scrap heap.

The key word in that is statistically, everyone of the QBs Mendola mentions showed signs that Losman isnt showing.



Well yes, you're probably right that there's more young QBs that didn't make it after struggling early than those who did. I don't know what "signs" you're alleging that all those other struggling-QB-eventually-succeeded guys were showing that JP supposedly isn't. That might be a generalization worth explaining.

But the bottom line is who cares who Nick Mendola is. The point is that he articulated a strong case for why there's no reason to sit Losman now. We don't have a better option, so do we mope around and assume that b/c JP got outplayed by Tom Brady last week, he's never going to be worth a damn? Or does it make more sense to keep him in there and hope he's a late bloomer.

If you're wondering, that's a rhetorical question. The bed is made, might as well sleep in it.

[HHURRICANE]

Did anyone expect him to have 7 perfect games?! The Bears and Pats games were going to be struggles before he stepped on the field. He did blow an opportunity against the Lions and that was regrettable.

There are 9 games left. He has only 2 ways to go. So he needs to pick one.

[FullHouse]

There are 9 games left. He has only 2 ways to go. So he needs to pick one.<!-- / message -->

[Wraith]

Yeah but who is Nick Mendola .
His opinion doesnt carry anymore weight than than anyone here.

The inclination is to attempt to point to quarterbacks that supposedly were slow to develop.

For every QB that statistically didnt look like much in his first x starts and still stuck there are 20 on the scrap heap.

The key word in that is statistically, everyone of the QBs Mendola mentions showed signs that Losman isnt showing.

So if you want to say that Losman has about a 1 in 20 shot of making it, I can agree with that.

WRG....that's another story... the two hosts in the morning are morons . I dont think the two of them put together have 100 points in IQ .They sound like they are 14 years old.

The Bulldog is probably the most level headed of the group.


Oh wise one, please present your "statistics" to verify the differences between Losman and the quarterbacks Mendola cited. Show us all how those quarterbacks are statistically different from Losman. Specifically. This should be good.

On a lighter note, I went to college with Nick Mendola at UB (where I got my degree in applied statistics ;-) ). He was a sports writer for the school paper then. Very knowledgable. Basically a rabid Bills fan with writing ability. Also amazingly funny. I believe one the members here, Jim Byrne (JimBuktu or something, also a sports writer who's work has been cited here before) worked with him on that staff.

[jmb1099]

[quote=GFLuNEEDit]Yeah but who is Nick Mendola .
Maybe the follow up question to this is who are you? Personally I think you're ftp with another account.

[mybills]

Intellect is always on time.
Actually, you posted two minutes later.

[Kerr]

Good article.