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ChiliConCarnage offers the following analysis of JP... http://boards.buffalobills.com/forum...294&Quote=True
Enjoy. (To JP bashers... Please save yourself the embarassment).
Enjoy. (To JP bashers... Please save yourself the embarassment).
Well I promised Clarkus I’d have this article ready asap, so I put a rush on it. Here’s to you.
WARNING: This post is long. Like seriously, unreasonably long. Get a coffee before you start.
I have been writing analytical articles involving the defense and offense of the Buffalo Bills. If you need background on me or the opinions I have, my first article, entitled “Analysis From That Guy You’ve Never Heard Of” can be read here.
:
My second post, a post titled “OMG LOSSSMAN SUXXX!!!!1!!!1!!!”, regarding offense, can be reached by accessing the following link:
This post will focus specifically on JP Losman. There is an article in the works on the coaching staff, but it, like the Death Star, is not fully operational. This article will break down Losman in many regards, and attempt to perhaps offer different angles on what has become a very tired argument.
Well let’s get into it, shall we?
STATISTICS
212 Attempts
130 Completions
61.3 Completion %
1415 Passing Yards
6.67 Yards per Attempt
7 Touchdowns
6 Interceptions
80.2 Rating
Let me be the first to say that statistics lie. Depending on the ability of the person manipulating them, they can tell you feasibly anything. For example:
Drew Bledsoe only had one season when his passer rating was above 80 when he was with the Bills. It was 2002, when a half of a season of explosive offense convinced many that Tom Donahoe was a genius. In 2003 and 2004, Bledsoe’s rating was 73.0 and 76.6, respectively.
We ran Bledsoe out of town on a rail. So looking at passer rating, Losman should be getting less flak, right? Especially considering Bledsoe had been starting for NINE seasons before coming to the Bills, and Losman has started ONE year before this year, and only 8 games of 2005 were starts.
Matt Leinart, who some thought should have been taken by the Bills with the 8th pick in last year’s draft, has a rating of 66.9 with one of the better receiving cores in the league.
Alex Smith, whom many consider to be the most improved player in the league, has a QB rating of 79.7
Byron Leftwich, whom some on the boards are clamoring for as Losman’s replacement in the off-season, has a rating of 79.0.
Everyone is saying Mike Vick is “finally getting it” as a QB. His rating is 79.0 as well.
Jake Delhomme, who most would consider a solid starter with a tremendous supporting cast and arguably the best receiver in the league in Steve Smith, has a rating of 80.3, a mere tenth of a percentage point higher than Losman’s.
But wait, watch my hands. I’ve got an ace up my sleeve. I can manipulate these very same stats to mean something entirely different.
A QB with better ratings than Losman and a far better track record was benched this year for poor play in favor of a rookie. His name? Kurt Warner. Warner made enough mistakes to be benched by coach Dennis Green, and his rating is still 81.9, a solid 1.7 points higher than Losman’s. By the way, he’s also a Super Bowl winner and two-time league MVP. So if HE gets benched for 81.9, shouldn’t Losman get benched for 80.2?
“Well, Chili, the rating system is flawed. You can’t use it as a viable comparison.”
Ok, I’ll bite. How about the max yardage efficiency statistic, yards per attempt (YPA)?
Losman’s is 6.67. Remember Jake Delhomme, with one of the greatest deep threats in football? His is 6.41. The “most improved player in football” Alex Smith’s, who was a #1 overall pick in the draft, has a YPA of 6.66. When looked at this way. Losman’s numbers don’t seem too bad.
But wait, here I go. Chad Pennington, who has quite possibly the weakest arm in football, has a YPA of 7.15. Kurt Warner got benched with a 7.45 YPA. Philip Rivers, who plays in a mostly horizontal attack and was criticized coming out of college for his awkward throwing motion and lack of arm strength, has a YPA of 7.34. How about Daunte Culpepper, who we were all making fun of because of his ineptness against the Bills this season? His YPA (before being benched for Joey Harrington) was 6.93. Looking at it from this angle, Losman looks pretty bad.
Stats lie. Using them, you can make someone look as good or as bad as you want, so I thought I’d throw them out there to remove all statistical arguments right off the bat.
FILM STUDY
I am an avid film buff. I love to watch tape on players.
LOTS of tape.
It’s the only way I know to really know who a player is, underneath the numbers. So I watch tape of Losman.
LOTS of tape.
Here’s some observations:
STANCE
Losman stands in the pocket more like javelin thrower, as opposed to Bledsoe, who stood like a baseball pitcher. Losman carries the ball up high, by his ear, as much as he can. This tends to allow his release to gain speed when compared to a Drew Bledsoe or a Byron Leftwich (who, as a side note might have the slowest release I’ve ever seen. He doesn’t throw, he winds up.). It also has a tendency to put a very horizontal motion on his throws, which means when he wants to loft a ball (say, a 30 yard fly with man coverage?), he needs to bring it down before he brings it up. We saw a great example of this with the deep throw to Lee in the Green Bay game. Because of the extra time this maneuver requires, it means his short- to intermediate- releases are faster, but his deep throws are slower. It’s a fair trade-off, but something to note.
EYES
Losman telegraphs. We all know this. But do you know why?
“it’s BEECAUS he suxx fool!!”
Swing and a miss.
Losman wants to make a play. He wants to throw into that window barely bigger than the ball. He wants to make people go “holy crap what a throw”. Problem is, he concentrates on that throw for too long before he decides he wants to make it. He keeps waiting for the perfect time for the perfect throw, but sometimes you have to make a “good” throw at a “good” time, and he doesn’t want to do it. This can really get out of hand for JP. In the Jets game, he stared down a wide open flat route by Willis, and threw the ball too high. He wanted to make a play, but he just made me sick.
This is correctable. Does it get corrected? With time, it can be. Which brings me to:
ATTITUDE
Losman wants to be perfect. He knows he will never be. But he wants to be. Know who else is like that? Peyton Manning.
“OMG you just sed JP = PAYTONE!! U SUK!”
Read that again. I said they share ONE of the same qualities that you want to have in your QB. The strive for perfection.
That being said, Losman has never been very good with the media. He’s brash and easily insulted, and seems annoyed every time someone talks to him. QBs inevitably become the face of the franchise, and nobody wants that as their face.
SCHEME
The idea of “scheme” can be broken down into two parts: How the scheme fits Losman and how Losman fits the scheme. No they’re not the same thing. Allow me to explain.
The first question is does the scheme Losman is in suit his abilities?
Kinda.
Fairchild wants to run a vertical offense with a strong-armed QB with overall decent accuracy on his deep ball. Sounds good so far.
How about a QB who has a tendency to telegraph his throws? Starting to not sound so good. By simple laws of physics, it’s deep ball QBs who need to be able to look off safeties, because the ball will be in the air longer, allowing a defender more time to close if the QBs eyes are not right.
How about a QB who holds the ball too long? Uh oh. Holding the ball too long on a drag route in ok, as your angle just gets slightly skewed. Holding the ball too long on a deep post = broken play.
Suddenly Losman’s flaws become a little bit bigger of a deal. Now not only are they flaws, but they’re contradictory to the system he’s in.
The second question is how does Losman work in the system he’s in?
Not well, is the answer. He hasn’t adjusted as much as you’d like to this offense, hasn’t learned his hot routes and hasn’t learned to rear defenses as quickly as he should.
Wait. One thing though.
He’s been in this system for 8 games.
Philip Rivers has sat 2 years and learned the same system, then went in and played in that same system. Losman hasn’t had the luxury of time.
SO…
So what do I think of Losman? I think you give him the rest of the year, and see how his learning curve is looking. You need to evaluate at that time, and at that time only, how he will be.
That being said, if he turns the ball over another 11 times in the second half of the season, he’s toast. You need to protect the ball in this league, plain and simple.
Ok now it’s time I preemptively respond to posters.
Losman fanboi: wut r u talking about? We have bad OLINE & receptionists!
Me: Yes we do have a poor o-line and average receivers. That being said, good QBs adjust to those situations (see Brady, Tom). Losman has not.
Nall fanboi: We need to see wut NALL has b-for the seeson ends!!
Me: Dick Jauron and staff, as well as Mike Sherman and staff, have seen what Nall has to offer. Will he be the next Hasselbeck or Delhomme? It’s not outside the realm of possibility, but chances are slim. Add that to the fact that Losman has started 8 games in the current offensive system, and has shown marked improvement (both statistically and on film) since last year throughout, means we need to stick with him longer.
Thanks for reading, and I hope I make some people think.
WARNING: This post is long. Like seriously, unreasonably long. Get a coffee before you start.
I have been writing analytical articles involving the defense and offense of the Buffalo Bills. If you need background on me or the opinions I have, my first article, entitled “Analysis From That Guy You’ve Never Heard Of” can be read here.
:
My second post, a post titled “OMG LOSSSMAN SUXXX!!!!1!!!1!!!”, regarding offense, can be reached by accessing the following link:
This post will focus specifically on JP Losman. There is an article in the works on the coaching staff, but it, like the Death Star, is not fully operational. This article will break down Losman in many regards, and attempt to perhaps offer different angles on what has become a very tired argument.
Well let’s get into it, shall we?
STATISTICS
212 Attempts
130 Completions
61.3 Completion %
1415 Passing Yards
6.67 Yards per Attempt
7 Touchdowns
6 Interceptions
80.2 Rating
Let me be the first to say that statistics lie. Depending on the ability of the person manipulating them, they can tell you feasibly anything. For example:
Drew Bledsoe only had one season when his passer rating was above 80 when he was with the Bills. It was 2002, when a half of a season of explosive offense convinced many that Tom Donahoe was a genius. In 2003 and 2004, Bledsoe’s rating was 73.0 and 76.6, respectively.
We ran Bledsoe out of town on a rail. So looking at passer rating, Losman should be getting less flak, right? Especially considering Bledsoe had been starting for NINE seasons before coming to the Bills, and Losman has started ONE year before this year, and only 8 games of 2005 were starts.
Matt Leinart, who some thought should have been taken by the Bills with the 8th pick in last year’s draft, has a rating of 66.9 with one of the better receiving cores in the league.
Alex Smith, whom many consider to be the most improved player in the league, has a QB rating of 79.7
Byron Leftwich, whom some on the boards are clamoring for as Losman’s replacement in the off-season, has a rating of 79.0.
Everyone is saying Mike Vick is “finally getting it” as a QB. His rating is 79.0 as well.
Jake Delhomme, who most would consider a solid starter with a tremendous supporting cast and arguably the best receiver in the league in Steve Smith, has a rating of 80.3, a mere tenth of a percentage point higher than Losman’s.
But wait, watch my hands. I’ve got an ace up my sleeve. I can manipulate these very same stats to mean something entirely different.
A QB with better ratings than Losman and a far better track record was benched this year for poor play in favor of a rookie. His name? Kurt Warner. Warner made enough mistakes to be benched by coach Dennis Green, and his rating is still 81.9, a solid 1.7 points higher than Losman’s. By the way, he’s also a Super Bowl winner and two-time league MVP. So if HE gets benched for 81.9, shouldn’t Losman get benched for 80.2?
“Well, Chili, the rating system is flawed. You can’t use it as a viable comparison.”
Ok, I’ll bite. How about the max yardage efficiency statistic, yards per attempt (YPA)?
Losman’s is 6.67. Remember Jake Delhomme, with one of the greatest deep threats in football? His is 6.41. The “most improved player in football” Alex Smith’s, who was a #1 overall pick in the draft, has a YPA of 6.66. When looked at this way. Losman’s numbers don’t seem too bad.
But wait, here I go. Chad Pennington, who has quite possibly the weakest arm in football, has a YPA of 7.15. Kurt Warner got benched with a 7.45 YPA. Philip Rivers, who plays in a mostly horizontal attack and was criticized coming out of college for his awkward throwing motion and lack of arm strength, has a YPA of 7.34. How about Daunte Culpepper, who we were all making fun of because of his ineptness against the Bills this season? His YPA (before being benched for Joey Harrington) was 6.93. Looking at it from this angle, Losman looks pretty bad.
Stats lie. Using them, you can make someone look as good or as bad as you want, so I thought I’d throw them out there to remove all statistical arguments right off the bat.
FILM STUDY
I am an avid film buff. I love to watch tape on players.
LOTS of tape.
It’s the only way I know to really know who a player is, underneath the numbers. So I watch tape of Losman.
LOTS of tape.
Here’s some observations:
STANCE
Losman stands in the pocket more like javelin thrower, as opposed to Bledsoe, who stood like a baseball pitcher. Losman carries the ball up high, by his ear, as much as he can. This tends to allow his release to gain speed when compared to a Drew Bledsoe or a Byron Leftwich (who, as a side note might have the slowest release I’ve ever seen. He doesn’t throw, he winds up.). It also has a tendency to put a very horizontal motion on his throws, which means when he wants to loft a ball (say, a 30 yard fly with man coverage?), he needs to bring it down before he brings it up. We saw a great example of this with the deep throw to Lee in the Green Bay game. Because of the extra time this maneuver requires, it means his short- to intermediate- releases are faster, but his deep throws are slower. It’s a fair trade-off, but something to note.
EYES
Losman telegraphs. We all know this. But do you know why?
“it’s BEECAUS he suxx fool!!”
Swing and a miss.
Losman wants to make a play. He wants to throw into that window barely bigger than the ball. He wants to make people go “holy crap what a throw”. Problem is, he concentrates on that throw for too long before he decides he wants to make it. He keeps waiting for the perfect time for the perfect throw, but sometimes you have to make a “good” throw at a “good” time, and he doesn’t want to do it. This can really get out of hand for JP. In the Jets game, he stared down a wide open flat route by Willis, and threw the ball too high. He wanted to make a play, but he just made me sick.
This is correctable. Does it get corrected? With time, it can be. Which brings me to:
ATTITUDE
Losman wants to be perfect. He knows he will never be. But he wants to be. Know who else is like that? Peyton Manning.
“OMG you just sed JP = PAYTONE!! U SUK!”
Read that again. I said they share ONE of the same qualities that you want to have in your QB. The strive for perfection.
That being said, Losman has never been very good with the media. He’s brash and easily insulted, and seems annoyed every time someone talks to him. QBs inevitably become the face of the franchise, and nobody wants that as their face.
SCHEME
The idea of “scheme” can be broken down into two parts: How the scheme fits Losman and how Losman fits the scheme. No they’re not the same thing. Allow me to explain.
The first question is does the scheme Losman is in suit his abilities?
Kinda.
Fairchild wants to run a vertical offense with a strong-armed QB with overall decent accuracy on his deep ball. Sounds good so far.
How about a QB who has a tendency to telegraph his throws? Starting to not sound so good. By simple laws of physics, it’s deep ball QBs who need to be able to look off safeties, because the ball will be in the air longer, allowing a defender more time to close if the QBs eyes are not right.
How about a QB who holds the ball too long? Uh oh. Holding the ball too long on a drag route in ok, as your angle just gets slightly skewed. Holding the ball too long on a deep post = broken play.
Suddenly Losman’s flaws become a little bit bigger of a deal. Now not only are they flaws, but they’re contradictory to the system he’s in.
The second question is how does Losman work in the system he’s in?
Not well, is the answer. He hasn’t adjusted as much as you’d like to this offense, hasn’t learned his hot routes and hasn’t learned to rear defenses as quickly as he should.
Wait. One thing though.
He’s been in this system for 8 games.
Philip Rivers has sat 2 years and learned the same system, then went in and played in that same system. Losman hasn’t had the luxury of time.
SO…
So what do I think of Losman? I think you give him the rest of the year, and see how his learning curve is looking. You need to evaluate at that time, and at that time only, how he will be.
That being said, if he turns the ball over another 11 times in the second half of the season, he’s toast. You need to protect the ball in this league, plain and simple.
Ok now it’s time I preemptively respond to posters.
Losman fanboi: wut r u talking about? We have bad OLINE & receptionists!
Me: Yes we do have a poor o-line and average receivers. That being said, good QBs adjust to those situations (see Brady, Tom). Losman has not.
Nall fanboi: We need to see wut NALL has b-for the seeson ends!!
Me: Dick Jauron and staff, as well as Mike Sherman and staff, have seen what Nall has to offer. Will he be the next Hasselbeck or Delhomme? It’s not outside the realm of possibility, but chances are slim. Add that to the fact that Losman has started 8 games in the current offensive system, and has shown marked improvement (both statistically and on film) since last year throughout, means we need to stick with him longer.
Thanks for reading, and I hope I make some people think.
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