jimmifli
11-19-2006, 05:58 PM
With 3:16 left the Bills got the ball on their own 38 yard line.
The series went like this:<o:p></o:p>
<table class="MsoNormalTable" style="width: 393pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1" height="95" width="524"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" id="play"> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> 1-10-BUF38<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> (3:16) J.Losman pass incomplete short middle to L.Evans (D.Faggins).<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" id="play"> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> 2-10-BUF38<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> (3:12) (Shotgun) J.Losman pass short middle to A.Thomas to BUF 44 for 6 yards (D.McCleon) [J.Babin].<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" id="play"> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> 3-4-BUF44<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> (2:31) (Shotgun) J.Losman pass incomplete deep left to L.Evans.<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" id="play"> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> 4-4-BUF44<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> (2:25) B.Moorman punts 45 yards to HST 11, Center-M.Schneck, fair catch by D.Wynn. (Punt hang time 5.1 seconds.)<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
I have a problem with the decision to punt. It left us in a very precarious situation.
The Texans got the ball on their own 12 yard line with 2:17 remaining on the clock. The Bills had two timeouts and the 2-minute warning. That meant that a single <st1:City w:st="on">Houston</st1:City> first down would win the game for <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Houston</st1:place></st1:City>.
The drive went as follows:<o:p></o:p>
<table class="MsoNormalTable" style="width: 100%;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" id="play"> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> 1-10-HOU11<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> (2:17) S.Gado right tackle to HST 12 for 1 yard (C.Kelsay).<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" id="play"> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> 2-9-HOU12<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> (2:11) S.Gado up the middle to HST 19 for 7 yards (T.Anderson, C.Wire).<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" id="play"> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> 3-2-HOU19<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> (2:00) D.Carr pass incomplete short left to A.Johnson (N.Clements).<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" id="play"> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> 4-2-HOU19<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> (1:57) C.Stanley punts 36 yards to BUF 45, Center-B.Pittman, fair catch by R.Parrish. (Punt hang time 4.9 seconds.)<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
The Bills were able to hold the Texans to a three and out, and the stop resulted in a short field for JP. The fact that the decision worked out isn't relevant, it was a percentage play and the decision made went against the odds.
In the previous nine drives the Bills D gave up a first down in eight of them. They were only able to force a single three and out, up to that point in the game. So the Bills rested the game on the defense's ability to force a 3 and out, 1/9 odds.
Those are very bad odds. But before we can make a judgment we need to look at the alternative: The Bills go for it on fourth down.
If the Bills go for it and make it, they keep the drive alive and have equal field position , their own 44 yard line. They also have more time, two timeouts and the two minute warning. Clearly a superior position than the one JP was forced to play from. What are the odds that they make it on 4th? Who knows but they can't be any worse than 1/9. The Bills were 1/1 on 4th down conversions and 4/14 on 3rd down conversions up to that point in the game. Those odds look considerably better than 1/9.
Additionally, if the Bills fail to convert on 4th down we put the defense in the same situation as they were in anyways, needing a three and out. If the defense gets the 3 and out, the offense would be in a similar situation, except they would have worse field position.
So basically, going for it on 4th down would've given the Bills two chances to win. By making it, or by stopping the opponent and then driving for a TD. By punting there is only one way to win.
I see no advantage to punting. It was a bad call that played against the odds.
The defense and the offense bailed out the coaching staff's poor decision. Hats off to the D for the final 3 and out, and hats off to JP and the O for the final drive.
The series went like this:<o:p></o:p>
<table class="MsoNormalTable" style="width: 393pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1" height="95" width="524"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" id="play"> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> 1-10-BUF38<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> (3:16) J.Losman pass incomplete short middle to L.Evans (D.Faggins).<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" id="play"> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> 2-10-BUF38<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> (3:12) (Shotgun) J.Losman pass short middle to A.Thomas to BUF 44 for 6 yards (D.McCleon) [J.Babin].<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" id="play"> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> 3-4-BUF44<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> (2:31) (Shotgun) J.Losman pass incomplete deep left to L.Evans.<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" id="play"> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> 4-4-BUF44<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> (2:25) B.Moorman punts 45 yards to HST 11, Center-M.Schneck, fair catch by D.Wynn. (Punt hang time 5.1 seconds.)<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
I have a problem with the decision to punt. It left us in a very precarious situation.
The Texans got the ball on their own 12 yard line with 2:17 remaining on the clock. The Bills had two timeouts and the 2-minute warning. That meant that a single <st1:City w:st="on">Houston</st1:City> first down would win the game for <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Houston</st1:place></st1:City>.
The drive went as follows:<o:p></o:p>
<table class="MsoNormalTable" style="width: 100%;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" id="play"> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> 1-10-HOU11<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> (2:17) S.Gado right tackle to HST 12 for 1 yard (C.Kelsay).<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" id="play"> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> 2-9-HOU12<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> (2:11) S.Gado up the middle to HST 19 for 7 yards (T.Anderson, C.Wire).<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" id="play"> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> 3-2-HOU19<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> (2:00) D.Carr pass incomplete short left to A.Johnson (N.Clements).<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" id="play"> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> 4-2-HOU19<o:p></o:p>
</td> <td style="padding: 1.5pt; height: 12.75pt;"> (1:57) C.Stanley punts 36 yards to BUF 45, Center-B.Pittman, fair catch by R.Parrish. (Punt hang time 4.9 seconds.)<o:p></o:p>
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
The Bills were able to hold the Texans to a three and out, and the stop resulted in a short field for JP. The fact that the decision worked out isn't relevant, it was a percentage play and the decision made went against the odds.
In the previous nine drives the Bills D gave up a first down in eight of them. They were only able to force a single three and out, up to that point in the game. So the Bills rested the game on the defense's ability to force a 3 and out, 1/9 odds.
Those are very bad odds. But before we can make a judgment we need to look at the alternative: The Bills go for it on fourth down.
If the Bills go for it and make it, they keep the drive alive and have equal field position , their own 44 yard line. They also have more time, two timeouts and the two minute warning. Clearly a superior position than the one JP was forced to play from. What are the odds that they make it on 4th? Who knows but they can't be any worse than 1/9. The Bills were 1/1 on 4th down conversions and 4/14 on 3rd down conversions up to that point in the game. Those odds look considerably better than 1/9.
Additionally, if the Bills fail to convert on 4th down we put the defense in the same situation as they were in anyways, needing a three and out. If the defense gets the 3 and out, the offense would be in a similar situation, except they would have worse field position.
So basically, going for it on 4th down would've given the Bills two chances to win. By making it, or by stopping the opponent and then driving for a TD. By punting there is only one way to win.
I see no advantage to punting. It was a bad call that played against the odds.
The defense and the offense bailed out the coaching staff's poor decision. Hats off to the D for the final 3 and out, and hats off to JP and the O for the final drive.