Lost in the Win..... a critical clock management mistake.

[jimmifli]

With 3:16 left the Bills got the ball on their own 38 yard line.

The series went like this:

1-10-BUF38	(3:16) J.Losman pass incomplete short middle to L.Evans (D.Faggins).
2-10-BUF38	(3:12) (Shotgun) J.Losman pass short middle to A.Thomas to BUF 44 for 6 yards (D.McCleon) [J.Babin].
3-4-BUF44	(2:31) (Shotgun) J.Losman pass incomplete deep left to L.Evans.
4-4-BUF44	(2:25) B.Moorman punts 45 yards to HST 11, Center-M.Schneck, fair catch by D.Wynn. (Punt hang time 5.1 seconds.)

I have a problem with the decision to punt. It left us in a very precarious situation.

The Texans got the ball on their own 12 yard line with 2:17 remaining on the clock. The Bills had two timeouts and the 2-minute warning. That meant that a single Houston first down would win the game for Houston.

The drive went as follows:

1-10-HOU11	(2:17) S.Gado right tackle to HST 12 for 1 yard (C.Kelsay).
2-9-HOU12	(2:11) S.Gado up the middle to HST 19 for 7 yards (T.Anderson, C.Wire).
3-2-HOU19	(2:00) D.Carr pass incomplete short left to A.Johnson (N.Clements).
4-2-HOU19	(1:57) C.Stanley punts 36 yards to BUF 45, Center-B.Pittman, fair catch by R.Parrish. (Punt hang time 4.9 seconds.)

The Bills were able to hold the Texans to a three and out, and the stop resulted in a short field for JP. The fact that the decision worked out isn't relevant, it was a percentage play and the decision made went against the odds.

In the previous nine drives the Bills D gave up a first down in eight of them. They were only able to force a single three and out, up to that point in the game. So the Bills rested the game on the defense's ability to force a 3 and out, 1/9 odds.

Those are very bad odds. But before we can make a judgment we need to look at the alternative: The Bills go for it on fourth down.

If the Bills go for it and make it, they keep the drive alive and have equal field position , their own 44 yard line. They also have more time, two timeouts and the two minute warning. Clearly a superior position than the one JP was forced to play from. What are the odds that they make it on 4th? Who knows but they can't be any worse than 1/9. The Bills were 1/1 on 4th down conversions and 4/14 on 3rd down conversions up to that point in the game. Those odds look considerably better than 1/9.

Additionally, if the Bills fail to convert on 4th down we put the defense in the same situation as they were in anyways, needing a three and out. If the defense gets the 3 and out, the offense would be in a similar situation, except they would have worse field position.

So basically, going for it on 4th down would've given the Bills two chances to win. By making it, or by stopping the opponent and then driving for a TD. By punting there is only one way to win.


I see no advantage to punting. It was a bad call that played against the odds.

The defense and the offense bailed out the coaching staff's poor decision. Hats off to the D for the final 3 and out, and hats off to JP and the O for the final drive.

[OpIv37]

Re: Lost in the Win..... a critical clock management mistake.

add to that that the Texans decided to throw on 3rd and 3 with under 2 min left when they were trying to kill the clock and averaging 7.0 YPC against our D. Jauron got a break on that one.

[Mitchy moo]

Re: Lost in the Win..... a critical clock management mistake.

Well I started a thread on this and lost it but you broke it down in depth. I knew it was a poor call the moment it happened. I figured we could get the ball back on our 30 with less time or just get the clock ran out on us again.

You go with the odds, we blew the call.

[The_Philster]

Re: Lost in the Win..... a critical clock management mistake.

I agree...we lucked out on that one, IMO. Our D wasn't stopping them very well. Thankfully they made a piss poor playcall and Nate made a play

[Mitchy moo]

Re: Lost in the Win..... a critical clock management mistake.

add to that that the Texans decided to throw on 3rd and 3 with under 2 min left when they were trying to kill the clock and averaging 7.0 YPC against our D. Jauron got a break on that one.

and add to that carr completed 21 straight passes up to that point, I have know idea what DJ was thinking.

[YardRat]

Re: Lost in the Win..... a critical clock management mistake.

Sometimes you have to buck the odds in order to be successful.

It worked, therefore it is a good call. If the Texans would have run the clock out on their last drive and the Bills would've lost, then it would have been questionable.

[jimmifli]

Re: Lost in the Win..... a critical clock management mistake.

Sometimes you have to buck the odds in order to be successful.

It worked, therefore it is a good call. If the Texans would have run the clock out on their last drive and the Bills would've lost, then it would have been questionable.

No. The coaching staff's job is by definition, to put the players in the best position possible to win.

His decision put the players in a very low percentage position. That's poor coaching.

The fact that it work out made it a good play, not a good call.

[DynaPaul]

Re: Lost in the Win..... a critical clock management mistake.

I didn't understand the punt then. Our defense wasn't really shutting them down and I thought Jauron had way too much faith in them. Luckily they did manage to shut the Texans down for a series and the offense took it from there to get the win.

[Bufftp]

Re: Lost in the Win..... a critical clock management mistake.

With 3:16 left the Bills got the ball on their own 38 yard line.

The series went like this:

1-10-BUF38	(3:16) J.Losman pass incomplete short middle to L.Evans (D.Faggins).
2-10-BUF38	(3:12) (Shotgun) J.Losman pass short middle to A.Thomas to BUF 44 for 6 yards (D.McCleon) [J.Babin].
3-4-BUF44	(2:31) (Shotgun) J.Losman pass incomplete deep left to L.Evans.
4-4-BUF44	(2:25) B.Moorman punts 45 yards to HST 11, Center-M.Schneck, fair catch by D.Wynn. (Punt hang time 5.1 seconds.)

I have a problem with the decision to punt. It left us in a very precarious situation.

The Texans got the ball on their own 12 yard line with 2:17 remaining on the clock. The Bills had two timeouts and the 2-minute warning. That meant that a single Houston first down would win the game for Houston.

The drive went as follows:

1-10-HOU11	(2:17) S.Gado right tackle to HST 12 for 1 yard (C.Kelsay).
2-9-HOU12	(2:11) S.Gado up the middle to HST 19 for 7 yards (T.Anderson, C.Wire).
3-2-HOU19	(2:00) D.Carr pass incomplete short left to A.Johnson (N.Clements).
4-2-HOU19	(1:57) C.Stanley punts 36 yards to BUF 45, Center-B.Pittman, fair catch by R.Parrish. (Punt hang time 4.9 seconds.)

The Bills were able to hold the Texans to a three and out, and the stop resulted in a short field for JP. The fact that the decision worked out isn't relevant, it was a percentage play and the decision made went against the odds.

In the previous nine drives the Bills D gave up a first down in eight of them. They were only able to force a single three and out, up to that point in the game. So the Bills rested the game on the defense's ability to force a 3 and out, 1/9 odds.

Those are very bad odds. But before we can make a judgment we need to look at the alternative: The Bills go for it on fourth down.

If the Bills go for it and make it, they keep the drive alive and have equal field position , their own 44 yard line. They also have more time, two timeouts and the two minute warning. Clearly a superior position than the one JP was forced to play from. What are the odds that they make it on 4th? Who knows but they can't be any worse than 1/9. The Bills were 1/1 on 4th down conversions and 4/14 on 3rd down conversions up to that point in the game. Those odds look considerably better than 1/9.

Additionally, if the Bills fail to convert on 4th down we put the defense in the same situation as they were in anyways, needing a three and out. If the defense gets the 3 and out, the offense would be in a similar situation, except they would have worse field position.

So basically, going for it on 4th down would've given the Bills two chances to win. By making it, or by stopping the opponent and then driving for a TD. By punting there is only one way to win.


I see no advantage to punting. It was a bad call that played against the odds.

The defense and the offense bailed out the coaching staff's poor decision. Hats off to the D for the final 3 and out, and hats off to JP and the O for the final drive.

we won. do have to deconstruct everything?

[TigerJ]

Re: Lost in the Win..... a critical clock management mistake.

I agree. There were a few coaching decision in the game that I question, but that was the biggest.

[Mitchy moo]

Re: Lost in the Win..... a critical clock management mistake.

Poor coaching choices have put us at 4-6 right now, so how do you justify mistakes?

[jimmifli]

Re: Lost in the Win..... a critical clock management mistake.

we won. do have to deconstruct everything?

Anything to add or are meaningless posts your regular schtick?

[YardRat]

Re: Lost in the Win..... a critical clock management mistake.

No. The coaching staff's job is by definition, to put the players in the best position possible to win.

His decision put the players in a very low percentage position. That's poor coaching.

The fact that it work out made it a good play, not a good call.

Then I would argue you need to rephrase your initial post.

It wasn't poor clock management, because the team had two time-outs plus the two-minute warning. A three-and-out would give the team enough time to score offensively.

Proper clock management.

Poor strategy decision, maybe in your view, because the odds were against them. Definitely not poor clock management.

[jimmifli]

Re: Lost in the Win..... a critical clock management mistake.

I don't understand your argument.

The alternative was a better choice. It would've provided better odds of success with more time and more timeouts for JP and the offense. That's good clock management.

The chosen strategy resulted in a low percentage play that required only a single first down and the Bills wouldn't get to touch the ball again.
Both choices provided a chance of success, I think one choice was better than the other. I haven't seen any reason why my initial post is wrong.

[MikeInRoch]

Re: Lost in the Win..... a critical clock management mistake.

Most people consider when timeouts are called to be clock management, not when you should or should not punt.