That bad word - playoffs

[G. Host]

First of all I do not think Bills have much of a chance of getting into playoffs but they need to win out and get some luck to have any chance but like I do every year we are not mathematically eliminated I put together key remaining games.

Since we are behind we need to gain ground and I removed all teams which only involved with teams are behind us in standings. If someone behind is also streaking they need to do better than us.

Any team in bold is ahead of us in standings.

• We are not likely to catch the division leaders
  • Indianapolis (10-1) is uncatchable so we need to hope they win remaining games which matter.
  • New England (8-3) is three game plus tie breaker so we need to hope they win remaining games which matter. Catching New England and getting AFCE requires NE losing to teams to bottom dwellers.
  • San Diego and Baltimore (9-2) are 4 games ahead us so we need to hope they continue to win which matter except against the Bills. What makes it especially tough is we need to beat both of them.
• The key games are those where underdogs are facing a someone ahead of us in wild card race and create an upset.
• When we have two wild card teams ahead playing each other then it depends on current standings and future key games.
• We have head-to-head tie breaker with Jacksonville only among leading wild card teams so far

WEEK 13 San Diego at Buffalo Baltimore at Cincinnati Kansas City at Cleveland N.Y. Jets at Green Bay Jacksonville at Miami Seattle at Denver Detroit at New England Indianapolis at Tennessee

WEEK 14 Buffalo at N.Y. Jets Baltimore at Kansas City Indianapolis at Jacksonville Denver at San Diego Oakland at Cincinnati New England at Miami

WEEK 15 Miami at Buffalo Kansas City at San Diego Cincinnati at Indianapolis Jacksonville at Tennessee Denver at Arizona N.Y. Jets at Minnesota Cleveland at Baltimore Houston at New England

WEEK 16 Tennessee at Buffalo New England at Jacksonville Cincinnati at Denver Kansas City at Oakland N.Y. Jets at Miami San Diego at Seattle Baltimore at Pittsburgh Indianapolis at Houston

WEEK 17 Buffalo at Baltimore Jacksonville at Kansas City Oakland at N.Y. Jets Pittsburgh at Cincinnati San Francisco at Denver Arizona at San Diego Miami at Indianapolis New England at Tennessee

Buffalo games highlighted in yellow - Buffalo MUST win those games
Those highlighted in blue are games which will likely be won by division leader and will help Buffalo's chances.
Those highlighted in green are key games where one of the wild cards competing with us will lose ground.
Those highlighted in white are key upsets we need
Those highlighted in pink do not matter much.

Assuming we keep on winning:
In week 13 we can expect to be tied with Cincinnati and maybe Jacksonville. It is possible for Jets to lose ground by Kansas City is unlikely.
In week 14 we have the chance to gain on a wild card (Jets) and have three wild cards having a good chance to lose to leaders. Good chances for Bills
In week 15 we have realistic chance of gaining ground on KC and Cincinnati; Tennessee has best chance of an upset
In week 16 we should be ahead of Jacksonville already but should gain ground on either Denver or Cincinnati
in Week 17 we need to hope Jacksonville beats KC and an upset occurs to have a realistic chance of wild card spot.

Hope you enjoy this completely hypothetical look at playoff race from Bills point of view.

[Devin]

Re: That bad word - playoffs

Well done GHost.

While I dont believe the playoffs are possible this season (to little to late), I am happy to see them playing better. Forward progress is all I ask, hopefully we keep it going in the offseason and continue with progress next year. We have a very young team, with a good draft and free agency we can continue.

[PECKERWOOD]

Re: That bad word - playoffs

I agree we don't have much of a shot, but never say never my friend. I would be very pleased if we did win out, even if we miss the playoffs. Its nice to even be considered 'in the hunt.'

[G. Host]

Re: That bad word - playoffs

I do what I can. What I can do is represent data well. I'd be good at that job Gregg Williams did when he broke into NFL if I was willing to put in 16 hour days at little pay.

Players and coaches learn by winning not tanking seasons trying to get better draft picks.

[jamze132]

Re: That bad word - playoffs

I think we got started too late to make the playoffs this year. I just hope we finish strong and win as many as possible while continuing to improve each week whether we win or lose. We are getting closer.

[PECKERWOOD]

Re: That bad word - playoffs

I think we got started too late to make the playoffs this year. I just hope we finish strong and win as many as possible while continuing to improve each week whether we win or lose. We are getting closer.

Nothing but agrees, there! I came in this season hoping for improvement, thats exactly what I've been seeing the past couple of games and other portions of this season, sure we had a slump there too. But in the end, my long term goal and hope, is that this team can carry this over into next season. I saw alot of good things today. I saw a team playing with heart, that goes for every single player on that field, thats what won us the game.
N O B O D Y C I R C L E S D A W A G O N S L I K E D A B U F F A L O B I L L S!!!!

[jmb1099]

Re: That bad word - playoffs

Nice job! Great information.

[SABURZFAN]

Re: That bad word - playoffs

if we were at least 7-4,like we're supposed to be,it would be ok to mention the P word.we have some tough games coming up on our schedule.

[Mitchy moo]

Re: That bad word - playoffs

if we were at least 7-4,like we're supposed to be,it would be ok to mention the P word.we have some tough games coming up on our schedule.

We would have to win those tough games to make noise in the playoffs anyways, so If we do step up and win the teams we beat may become of playoff foes. Remember Pittsburgh traveled all playoffs last year after their run to make the SB and win it all. Who was expecting that with a rookie QB?

The right time to get hot is right now.

[G. Host]

Re: That bad word - playoffs

Continuing analysis we need to go from 10th in AFC to 6th AFC meaning we need to suprass 4 teams at a minimum.

Team	W	L	T	Home	Road	AFC	NFC	DIV	Streak
New England	8	3	0	3-3	5-0	5-3	3-0	4-1	Won 2
N.Y. Jets	6	5	0	3-3	3-2	5-4	1-1	3-1	Won 1
Buffalo	5	6	0	3-2	2-4	3-4	2-2	1-3	Won 2
Miami	5	6	0	3-2	2-4	2-5	3-1	0-3	Won 4
Baltimore	9	2	0	5-1	4-1	6-1	3-1	3-0	Won 5
Cincinnati	6	5	0	2-3	4-2	4-3	2-2	3-1	Won 2
Pittsburgh	4	7	0	3-2	1-5	3-6	1-1	1-2	Lost 1
Cleveland	3	8	0	1-5	2-3	2-6	1-2	0-4	Lost 2
Indianapolis	10	1	0	6-0	4-1	7-0	3-1	3-0	Won 1
Jacksonville	6	5	0	5-1	1-4	3-4	3-1	1-3	Lost 1
Tennessee	4	7	0	2-3	2-4	1-6	3-1	1-2	Won 2
Houston	3	8	0	2-3	1-5	3-4	0-4	2-2	Lost 2
San Diego	9	2	0	5-0	4-2	7-2	2-0	3-1	Won 5
Kansas City	7	4	0	5-1	2-3	3-4	4-0	3-1	Won 2
Denver	7	4	0	3-2	4-2	7-3	0-1	3-2	Lost 2
Oakland	2	9	0	2-3	0-6	1-7	1-2	0-5	Lost 4

If we beat Jets (only team we directly face) and favorite leaders win games in blue it only gets us there partially. Two losses to opponents we need are guarenteed (those highlighted in green).

Team	W	L
New England	8	3
N.Y. Jets	6	5+BUF
Buffalo	5+5	6
Miami	5	6
Baltimore	9	2
Cincinnati	6	5+Bal+1/2
Pittsburgh	4	7
Cleveland	3	8
Indianapolis	10	1
Jacksonville	6	5+Bal+NEP+1/2
Tennessee	4	7
Houston	3	8
San Diego	9	2
Kansas City	7	4+Bal+1/2
Denver	7	4+SD+1/2
Oakland	2	9

Those with half games are those at end of season which may determine if we make playoffs if we win out. We will beat any team with 7 losses or more. As you see we need some upsets other than those by us to have a chance of making it.

Does anyone disagree with my analysis so far?