When games have been tighter, JP has been better

[Coach Sal]

Some numbers to digest on our QB........

When the Bills are up or down by 15 or more points this season (only been down, by the way):
30/52 (57.7%); 307 yards; 1 TD; 4 INT; (49.1 passer rating)

When the Bills are up or down anywhere between 8 and 14 points:
41/71 (57.7%); 513 yards; 3 TD; 1 INT; (88.5 passer rating)

When the game is tied or the Bills are up or down by 7 points or less: 114/167 (68.3%); 1187 yards; 6 TD; 3 INT; (93.1 passer rating)

WHEN THE BILLS ARE TIED OR UP OR DOWN BY 7 POINTS OR LESS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER:
50/76 (65.8%); 559 yards; 4 TD; 0 INT; (105.1 passer rating)

Do these numbers mean anything to you? Or do they not prove a damn thing?

[HHURRICANE]

Yeah, it means when we get behind by alot our QB has to pass more and we have to abandon the run game. Uhhh, these stats would pretty much apply to any QB in the league.

[PECKERWOOD]

Look like pretty good numbers to me. Man, I'm really pleased with his completion % this year. I hope he becomes more efficient in the redzone also.. Makes me excited for next week, hopefully JP can keep on keeping on!

[Dr. Lecter]

I am really starting to like how this kid performs under pressure. That is obviously very important for a QB. Watching the game last week, he really has taken charge of the offense and is a true leader. I know some people refuse to admit it (or acknowledge what many of us saw), but his confidence and leadership have improved considerably the last 2 weeks,.

Chris Brown said on 97 Rock this AM, that he has an interesting article coming up on JP's performance compared against other top QB's that is very revealing too.

[Coach Sal]

Yeah, it means when we get behind by alot our QB has to pass more and we have to abandon the run game. Uhhh, these stats would pretty much apply to any QB in the league.

Hmmm. I thought that could be the case, but let's test that theory. I took two QB's. Ben Roethlisberger, who was taken just before JP in 2004 and whose team is 4-7 (similar to the Bills, but not the same).

I took Alex Smith, who was the #1 overall pick in 2005, has started 18 games in the NFL (JP has started 19), and whose team has the same 5-6 record as the Bills.

I put JP's numbers in italics right underneath both players in each category.

Here are the results:

Ben Roethlisberger:

When the Steelers are up or down by 15 or more points this season:
37/60 (61.7%); 452 yards; 2 TD; 2 INT; (82.1 passer rating)
30/52 (57.7%); 307 yards; 1 TD; 4 INT; (49.1 passer rating)

When the Steelers are up or down anywhere between 8 and 14 points:
93/156 (59.6%); 1002 yards; 1 TD; 10 INT; (54.0 passer rating)
41/71 (57.7%); 513 yards; 3 TD; 1 INT; (88.5 passer rating)

When the game is tied or the Steelers are up or down by 7 points or less:
83/131 (63.4%); 1075 yards; 9 TD; 7 INT; (89.7 passer rating)
114/167 (68.3%); 1187 yards; 6 TD; 3 INT; (93.1 passer rating)


WHEN THE THE STEELERS ARE TIED OR UP OR DOWN BY 7 POINTS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER:
76/134 (56.7%); 901 yards; 3 TD; 9 INT; (56.8 passer rating)
50/76 (65.8%); 559 yards; 4 TD; 0 INT; (105.1 passer rating)


Let's Check Alex Smith:

When the 49ers are up or down by 15 or more points this season:
47/81 (58.0%); 441 yards; 3 TD; 5 INT; (59.7 passer rating)
30/52 (57.7%); 307 yards; 1 TD; 4 INT; (49.1 passer rating)

When the 49ers are up or down anywhere between 8 and 14 points:
42/65 (64.6%); 458 yards; 4 TD; 1 INT; (99.4 passer rating)
41/71 (57.7%); 513 yards; 3 TD; 1 INT; (88.5 passer rating)

When the game is tied or the 49ers are up or down by 7 points or less:
93/153 (60.8%); 1073 yards; 4 TD; 3 INT; (82.5 passer rating)
114/167 (68.3%); 1187 yards; 6 TD; 3 INT; (93.1 passer rating)

WHEN THE THE 49ers ARE TIED OR UP OR DOWN BY 7 POINTS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER:
44/77 (57.1%); 431 yards; 2 TD; 2 INT; (70.9 passer rating)
50/76 (65.8%); 559 yards; 4 TD; 0 INT; (105.1 passer rating)

So, basically, Alex Smith's production goes down as the game gets tighter -especialy in the 4th quarter of a one score game.

Big Ben is atrocious in two score games, but more respectable in 7 or less point games. Until the 4th quarter that is. Then, he sucks! In fact, JP's numbers in those situations against his are unbelievably better.

And Ben is very good in blowouts, when the Steelers have to "abondon the run." So, I guess the point is that those numbers would not "pretty much apply to any QB in the league."

Is there anyone else you'd like me to check?

[JoeMama]

Thanks Sal.

All I gotta add is the obvious. JP is clutch.

I'm listening to episode 23 right now, by the way. Already good stuff.

[Dr. Lecter]

Nice work Coach.

[Dr. Lecter]

Thanks Sal.

All I gotta add is the obvious. JP is clutch.

I'm listening to episode 22 right now, by the way. Already good stuff.

Yes, but Holcomb is better. :str8face:

[HHURRICANE]

So, basically, Alex Smith's production goes down as the game gets tighter -especialy in the 4th quarter of a one score game.

Big Ben is atrocious in two score games, but more respectable in 7 or less point games. Until the 4th quarter that is. Then, he sucks! In fact, JP's numbers in those situations against his are unbelievably better.

And Ben is very good in blowouts, when the Steelers have to "abondon the run." So, I guess the point is that those numbers would not "pretty much apply to any QB in the league."

Is there anyone else you'd like me to check?

I stand corrected!! Good work! What about Eli Manning?!

[G. Host]

Maybe when better, games have been tighter?

[Stewie]

Some numbers to digest on our QB........

When the Bills are up or down by 15 or more points this season (only been down, by the way):
30/52 (57.7%); 307 yards; 1 TD; 4 INT; (49.1 passer rating)

When the Bills are up or down anywhere between 8 and 14 points:
41/71 (57.7%); 513 yards; 3 TD; 1 INT; (88.5 passer rating)

When the game is tied or the Bills are up or down by 7 points or less: 114/167 (68.3%); 1187 yards; 6 TD; 3 INT; (93.1 passer rating)

WHEN THE BILLS ARE TIED OR UP OR DOWN BY 7 POINTS OR LESS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER:
50/76 (65.8%); 559 yards; 4 TD; 0 INT; (105.1 passer rating)

Do these numbers mean anything to you? Or do they not prove a damn thing?

That when we're losing big, it's cause JP's is having a bad game.

[Romes]

this stuff kinda blows the "garbage time" theory out of the water, doesn't it?

[Coach Sal]

What about Eli Manning?!

When the Giants are up or down by 15 or more points this season:
56/106 (52.8%); 607 yards; 2 TD; 4 INT; (60.5 passer rating)
30/52 (57.7%); 307 yards; 1 TD; 4 INT; (49.1 passer rating)

When the Giants are up or down anywhere between 8 and 14 points:
69/123 (56.1%); 798 yards; 8 TD; 6 INT; (77.2 passer rating)
41/71 (57.7%); 513 yards; 3 TD; 1 INT; (88.5 passer rating)

When the game is tied or the Giants are up or down by 7 points or less:
86/133 (64.7%); 940 yards; 7 TD; 5 INT; (87.3 passer rating)
114/167 (68.3%); 1187 yards; 6 TD; 3 INT; (93.1 passer rating)

WHEN THE THE GIANTS ARE TIED OR UP OR DOWN BY 7 POINTS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER:
56/87 (64.4%); 636 yards; 6 TD; 5 INT; (85.2 passer rating)
50/76 (65.8%); 559 yards; 4 TD; 0 INT; (105.1 passer rating)

Eli, like JP, gets better as the game gets closer -- but not all that much better. And then he levels off. JP improves drastically. Also, there's no difference in Eli's numbers in a 7-point or less game in quarters 1-3 than there is in quarter 4. JP has monster numbers in the 4th quarter up or down by 7.

[jamze132]

I would love to see what we could do with a couple of top tier O-lineman.

[Coach Sal]

That when we're losing big, it's cause JP's is having a bad game.

I think there's something to that.

"As JP goes, the offense goes" is not something the coaches wanted to ring true earlier this season.

But it is becoming increasingly apparent that that is the case.

And it's understandable. Teams have been loading up on our running game lately and forcing him to beat them. And the last two weeks they've paid for that.

[Wraith]

Yeah, it means when we get behind by alot our QB has to pass more and we have to abandon the run game. Uhhh, these stats would pretty much apply to any QB in the league.

How does passing more when behind increase his completion percentage, yards per attempt, and touchdown rate, and decrease his interception rate? These are all metrics that vary independently with attempts.

Your argument would be valid if he was basing his argument off solely off yards, but that is clearly not the case. Next time I suggest taking a closer look at the data presented before resorting to this cliched and incorrect statement.

[Stewie]

It only makes sense that our offense is dictated by his play. We don't have the type of dominant running game that can mask average qb play. Good thing for us JP is showing great strides towards being a very good QB.

[BillsNick]

I would love to see what we could do with a couple of top tier O-lineman.

I agree with you %100, but I have to say that our O-Line has been performing much better lately.

[PECKERWOOD]

So Sal, I guess you think the Coaches have faith in Losman now? =)

[Coach Sal]

So Sal, I guess you think the Coaches have faith in Losman now? =)

Yup. At least more faith.

I said in the show last week after the Houston game that Losman did a "Houdini." In other words, his play enabled him to get the handcuffs off.

[PECKERWOOD]

Yup. At least more faith.

I said in the show last week after the Houston game that Losman did a "Houdini." In other words, his play enabled him to get the handcuffs off.

lol, nice. Don't get me wrong, he did pull a houdini, but I think the teams pass rush has alot to do with it. Notice how the Texans can't generate a pass rush, and the Jaguars have a good interior, but they don't have DE's that can get pressure on the QB consistently.

Expect a drop off from Losman this week against SD. Merriman is back, and he is going to pressure Losman for certain. We will see if this teams with an elite pass rusher or rusher(s) holds any water!

[Philagape]

Yes, but Holcomb is better. :str8face:

He would have had THREE bombs to Evans against Houston.

[jamze132]

I agree with you %100, but I have to say that our O-Line has been performing much better lately.
Touche!

[Dr. Lecter]

He would have had THREE bombs to Evans against Houston.

Maybe even 4!

And he would have scored a TD against Jacksinville!