When games have been tighter, JP has been better

[Coach Sal]

Some numbers to digest on our QB........

When the Bills are up or down by 15 or more points this season (only been down, by the way):
30/52 (57.7%); 307 yards; 1 TD; 4 INT; (49.1 passer rating)

When the Bills are up or down anywhere between 8 and 14 points:
41/71 (57.7%); 513 yards; 3 TD; 1 INT; (88.5 passer rating)

When the game is tied or the Bills are up or down by 7 points or less: 114/167 (68.3%); 1187 yards; 6 TD; 3 INT; (93.1 passer rating)

WHEN THE BILLS ARE TIED OR UP OR DOWN BY 7 POINTS OR LESS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER:
50/76 (65.8%); 559 yards; 4 TD; 0 INT; (105.1 passer rating)

Do these numbers mean anything to you? Or do they not prove a damn thing?

[HHURRICANE]

Re: When games have been tighter, JP has been better

Yeah, it means when we get behind by alot our QB has to pass more and we have to abandon the run game. Uhhh, these stats would pretty much apply to any QB in the league.

[PECKERWOOD]

Re: When games have been tighter, JP has been better

Look like pretty good numbers to me. Man, I'm really pleased with his completion % this year. I hope he becomes more efficient in the redzone also.. Makes me excited for next week, hopefully JP can keep on keeping on!

[Dr. Lecter]

Re: When games have been tighter, JP has been better

I am really starting to like how this kid performs under pressure. That is obviously very important for a QB. Watching the game last week, he really has taken charge of the offense and is a true leader. I know some people refuse to admit it (or acknowledge what many of us saw), but his confidence and leadership have improved considerably the last 2 weeks,.

Chris Brown said on 97 Rock this AM, that he has an interesting article coming up on JP's performance compared against other top QB's that is very revealing too.

[Coach Sal]

Re: When games have been tighter, JP has been better

Yeah, it means when we get behind by alot our QB has to pass more and we have to abandon the run game. Uhhh, these stats would pretty much apply to any QB in the league.

Hmmm. I thought that could be the case, but let's test that theory. I took two QB's. Ben Roethlisberger, who was taken just before JP in 2004 and whose team is 4-7 (similar to the Bills, but not the same).

I took Alex Smith, who was the #1 overall pick in 2005, has started 18 games in the NFL (JP has started 19), and whose team has the same 5-6 record as the Bills.

I put JP's numbers in italics right underneath both players in each category.

Here are the results:

Ben Roethlisberger:

When the Steelers are up or down by 15 or more points this season:
37/60 (61.7%); 452 yards; 2 TD; 2 INT; (82.1 passer rating)
30/52 (57.7%); 307 yards; 1 TD; 4 INT; (49.1 passer rating)

When the Steelers are up or down anywhere between 8 and 14 points:
93/156 (59.6%); 1002 yards; 1 TD; 10 INT; (54.0 passer rating)
41/71 (57.7%); 513 yards; 3 TD; 1 INT; (88.5 passer rating)

When the game is tied or the Steelers are up or down by 7 points or less:
83/131 (63.4%); 1075 yards; 9 TD; 7 INT; (89.7 passer rating)
114/167 (68.3%); 1187 yards; 6 TD; 3 INT; (93.1 passer rating)


WHEN THE THE STEELERS ARE TIED OR UP OR DOWN BY 7 POINTS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER:
76/134 (56.7%); 901 yards; 3 TD; 9 INT; (56.8 passer rating)
50/76 (65.8%); 559 yards; 4 TD; 0 INT; (105.1 passer rating)


Let's Check Alex Smith:

When the 49ers are up or down by 15 or more points this season:
47/81 (58.0%); 441 yards; 3 TD; 5 INT; (59.7 passer rating)
30/52 (57.7%); 307 yards; 1 TD; 4 INT; (49.1 passer rating)

When the 49ers are up or down anywhere between 8 and 14 points:
42/65 (64.6%); 458 yards; 4 TD; 1 INT; (99.4 passer rating)
41/71 (57.7%); 513 yards; 3 TD; 1 INT; (88.5 passer rating)

When the game is tied or the 49ers are up or down by 7 points or less:
93/153 (60.8%); 1073 yards; 4 TD; 3 INT; (82.5 passer rating)
114/167 (68.3%); 1187 yards; 6 TD; 3 INT; (93.1 passer rating)

WHEN THE THE 49ers ARE TIED OR UP OR DOWN BY 7 POINTS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER:
44/77 (57.1%); 431 yards; 2 TD; 2 INT; (70.9 passer rating)
50/76 (65.8%); 559 yards; 4 TD; 0 INT; (105.1 passer rating)

So, basically, Alex Smith's production goes down as the game gets tighter -especialy in the 4th quarter of a one score game.

Big Ben is atrocious in two score games, but more respectable in 7 or less point games. Until the 4th quarter that is. Then, he sucks! In fact, JP's numbers in those situations against his are unbelievably better.

And Ben is very good in blowouts, when the Steelers have to "abondon the run." So, I guess the point is that those numbers would not "pretty much apply to any QB in the league."

Is there anyone else you'd like me to check?

[JoeMama]

Re: When games have been tighter, JP has been better

Thanks Sal.

All I gotta add is the obvious. JP is clutch.

I'm listening to episode 23 right now, by the way. Already good stuff.

[Dr. Lecter]

Re: When games have been tighter, JP has been better

Nice work Coach.

[Dr. Lecter]

Re: When games have been tighter, JP has been better

Thanks Sal.

All I gotta add is the obvious. JP is clutch.

I'm listening to episode 22 right now, by the way. Already good stuff.

Yes, but Holcomb is better.

[HHURRICANE]

Re: When games have been tighter, JP has been better

So, basically, Alex Smith's production goes down as the game gets tighter -especialy in the 4th quarter of a one score game.

Big Ben is atrocious in two score games, but more respectable in 7 or less point games. Until the 4th quarter that is. Then, he sucks! In fact, JP's numbers in those situations against his are unbelievably better.

And Ben is very good in blowouts, when the Steelers have to "abondon the run." So, I guess the point is that those numbers would not "pretty much apply to any QB in the league."

Is there anyone else you'd like me to check?

I stand corrected!! Good work! What about Eli Manning?!

[G. Host]

Re: When games have been tighter, JP has been better

Maybe when better, games have been tighter?

[Stewie]

Re: When games have been tighter, JP has been better

Some numbers to digest on our QB........

When the Bills are up or down by 15 or more points this season (only been down, by the way):
30/52 (57.7%); 307 yards; 1 TD; 4 INT; (49.1 passer rating)

When the Bills are up or down anywhere between 8 and 14 points:
41/71 (57.7%); 513 yards; 3 TD; 1 INT; (88.5 passer rating)

When the game is tied or the Bills are up or down by 7 points or less: 114/167 (68.3%); 1187 yards; 6 TD; 3 INT; (93.1 passer rating)

WHEN THE BILLS ARE TIED OR UP OR DOWN BY 7 POINTS OR LESS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER:
50/76 (65.8%); 559 yards; 4 TD; 0 INT; (105.1 passer rating)

Do these numbers mean anything to you? Or do they not prove a damn thing?

That when we're losing big, it's cause JP's is having a bad game.

[Romes]

Re: When games have been tighter, JP has been better

this stuff kinda blows the "garbage time" theory out of the water, doesn't it?

[Coach Sal]

Re: When games have been tighter, JP has been better

What about Eli Manning?!

When the Giants are up or down by 15 or more points this season:
56/106 (52.8%); 607 yards; 2 TD; 4 INT; (60.5 passer rating)
30/52 (57.7%); 307 yards; 1 TD; 4 INT; (49.1 passer rating)

When the Giants are up or down anywhere between 8 and 14 points:
69/123 (56.1%); 798 yards; 8 TD; 6 INT; (77.2 passer rating)
41/71 (57.7%); 513 yards; 3 TD; 1 INT; (88.5 passer rating)

When the game is tied or the Giants are up or down by 7 points or less:
86/133 (64.7%); 940 yards; 7 TD; 5 INT; (87.3 passer rating)
114/167 (68.3%); 1187 yards; 6 TD; 3 INT; (93.1 passer rating)

WHEN THE THE GIANTS ARE TIED OR UP OR DOWN BY 7 POINTS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER:
56/87 (64.4%); 636 yards; 6 TD; 5 INT; (85.2 passer rating)
50/76 (65.8%); 559 yards; 4 TD; 0 INT; (105.1 passer rating)

Eli, like JP, gets better as the game gets closer -- but not all that much better. And then he levels off. JP improves drastically. Also, there's no difference in Eli's numbers in a 7-point or less game in quarters 1-3 than there is in quarter 4. JP has monster numbers in the 4th quarter up or down by 7.

[jamze132]

Re: When games have been tighter, JP has been better

I would love to see what we could do with a couple of top tier O-lineman.

[Coach Sal]

Re: When games have been tighter, JP has been better

That when we're losing big, it's cause JP's is having a bad game.

I think there's something to that.

"As JP goes, the offense goes" is not something the coaches wanted to ring true earlier this season.

But it is becoming increasingly apparent that that is the case.

And it's understandable. Teams have been loading up on our running game lately and forcing him to beat them. And the last two weeks they've paid for that.