View Full Version : Going further into the Jeff Sagarin ratings
Mitchy moo
12-01-2006, 01:46 PM
The 3 easiest schedules in the AFC belong to:
21. Baltimore, 9-2 record
19. Kansas city, 7-4 record
18. San Diego, 9-2 record
It's mildly ironic that I brought up this argument about ease of schedule and record and got clocked by everybody. I guess it shows up in the standing though. 25 wins and 8 losses, wow.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl06.htm
Mitchy moo
12-01-2006, 01:50 PM
SD is .500 against the top 10 teams and 3-2 against top 16 teams.
1 (afc west) = 23.13 22.78 ( 1) TEAMS= 4
NFL 2006 through games of November 27 Monday _ week #12
HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.23 RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PURE POINTS
3 San Diego Chargers = 30.59 9 2 0 19.26( 18) 2 2 0 | 3 2 0 | 30.74 2 | 30.28 4
7 Denver Broncos = 25.03 7 4 0 22.24( 2) 3 3 0 | 4 3 0 | 26.87 6 | 23.38 9
10 Kansas City Chiefs = 22.64 7 4 0 19.22( 19) 2 2 0 | 2 3 0 | 23.38 7 | 21.77 10
29 Oakland Raiders = 12.86 2 9 0 22.10( 5) 0 6 0 | 1 6 0 | 10.61 30 | 14.35 26
LTforMVP
12-01-2006, 01:50 PM
the best teams cant play themselves and give the teams they face so many losses that this stupid trend you speak so highly of happens every year
mybills
12-01-2006, 01:54 PM
Skoob, don't piss off the Charger fans! :snicker:
Earthquake Enyart
12-01-2006, 01:55 PM
Sagarin ratings are stupid and useless.
OpIv37
12-01-2006, 01:55 PM
The 3 easiest schedules in the AFC belong to:
21. Baltimore, 9-2 record
19. Kansas city, 7-4 record
18. San Diego, 9-2 record
It's mildly ironic that I brought up this argument about ease of schedule and record and got clocked by everybody. I guess it shows up in the standing though. 25 wins and 8 losses, wow.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl06.htm
if you're going to repeat posts, then so am I-
Yet another inconsistency- you have the "any given Sunday" mentality and think any team can win on any week, yet you still think good teams only win because of weak schedules.
This isn't college football- final record counts, not strength of schedule.
Mitchy moo
12-01-2006, 01:58 PM
if you're going to repeat posts, then so am I-
Yet another inconsistency- you have the "any given Sunday" mentality and think any team can win on any week, yet you still think good teams only win because of weak schedules.
This isn't college football- final record counts, not strength of schedule.
Ditto:
You do not see a pattern here? The top 3 easiest teams have a .680 winning percentage or ~12-4 record. That would normally get you a home game or two in the playoffs. Can you say large advantage?
Mitchy moo
12-01-2006, 01:59 PM
Skoob, don't piss off the Charger fans! :snicker:
Oops, my bad. I apologize ahead of time to all the chargers fans. LT is god, Rivers is the greatest and your team is far superior to all who have .570 record or less. :oops:
mybills
12-01-2006, 02:05 PM
:roflmao:
OpIv37
12-01-2006, 02:13 PM
Ditto:
You do not see a pattern here? The top 3 easiest teams have a .680 winning percentage or ~12-4 record. That would normally get you a home game or two in the playoffs. Can you say large advantage?
Your argument has several major flaws.
First, we ARE one of those easy teams on the Chargers schedule. One of the reasons their schedule is so easy is because WE'RE on it.
Second, teams have no say in who's on their schedule or how good they are. Every team has years that are easier than others and you have to take advantage of it when your opportunity comes (example: Bills in 04). More importantly, you have to beat who you play, and the Chargers have done that.
Third, so what if the Chargers only beat weak teams? They still have LT, Gates, and the #7 ranked rush D. Their previous competition has nothing to do with how well they match up against the Bills.
And finally, this is the NFL in the age of salary cap parity. The difference between a good team and a mediocre or bad one isn't all that much. Examples: Miami beating the Bears and the Bills almost beating the Colts at home.
Do teams with an easy schedule have an advantage when it comes to making the playoffs? I'd agree they have a slight advantage. But it's not the problem you're making it out to be and it doesn't prove that the Chargers are not a good team or that the Bills can beat them.
Mitchy moo
12-01-2006, 02:22 PM
And finally, this is the NFL in the age of salary cap parity. The difference between a good team and a mediocre or bad one isn't all that much. Examples: Miami beating the Bears and the Bills almost beating the Colts at home.
Do teams with an easy schedule have an advantage when it comes to making the playoffs? I'd agree they have a slight advantage. But it's not the problem you're making it out to be and it doesn't prove that the Chargers are not a good team or that the Bills can beat them.
So in the top paragraph you admit the difference between one team or another is not that much and on the bottom you agree that the easy schedule gives a slight advantage.
This is what's known as double talk, you can't have it both ways. Any advantage is a parity driven league is a advantage non-the-less.
http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php?t=7758
I put this on the site in 2002. I also did a similar analysis in 2003 and had similar results. As was stated in my thread Sagarins strenghts are his opinions not based on actual performance on the schedule. My analysis is how teams did throughout the year and at no point does it take into account the game they played that week.
So, I have to say I agree with Scooby and you guys who don't are WAY off base. The teams with weaker schedules have a significantly greater chance of making the playoffs over teams with stronger schedules.
So in the top paragraph you admit the difference between one team or another is not that much and on the bottom you agree that the easy schedule gives a slight advantage.
This is what's known as double talk, you can't have it both ways. Any advantage is a parity driven league is a advantage non-the-less.
I don't think the advantage is slight...I think it is a considerable advantage. I have brought good analysis to the table here to support that position. I think it's hard to understand though.
OpIv37
12-01-2006, 02:27 PM
So in the top paragraph you admit the difference between one team or another is not that much and on the bottom you agree that the easy schedule gives a slight advantage.
This is what's known as double talk, you can't have it both ways. Any advantage is a parity driven league is a advantage non-the-less.
I don't know why you think that's double talk. I said SLIGHT. Think about it this way- if you had to pick a portion of the Bills schedule next year and you had the following two choices, which one would you take:
A: road games against the Patriots, Colts, Ravens, and Bears
B: road games against the Packers, Lions, Buccanneers and Texans
I think the answer is pretty obvious. Certain schedules are easier than others, but the advantage isn't enough to make a huge difference over a 16 game season. There's no double talk in there.
RBI90
12-01-2006, 02:27 PM
So, how does any of it matter when the Bills face the Chargers on Sunday? Despite who has the harder schedule, most of the time the better team wins, right? Most people who are not Bills or Chargers fans think that the Chargers are teh better team DESPITE their easy schedule.
Mitchy moo
12-01-2006, 02:29 PM
I don't think the advantage is slight...I think it is a considerable advantage. I have brought good analysis to the table here to support that position. I think it's hard to understand though.
It wasn't for me but I got buried for even bringing it up and had no idea this Sagarin guy even did this.
I don't know why you think that's double talk. I said SLIGHT. Think about it this way- if you had to pick a portion of the Bills schedule next year and you had the following two choices, which one would you take:
A: road games against the Patriots, Colts, Ravens, and Bears
B: road games against the Packers, Lions, Buccanneers and Texans
I think the answer is pretty obvious. Certain schedules are easier than others, but the advantage isn't enough to make a huge difference over a 16 game season. There's no double talk in there.
disagree. the advantage of playing a weaker schedule is very clear and much greater than slight. In short, if you sort the performance based on strength of schedule and appearance in the playoffs there will be a significantly greater amount of teams in the playoffs from the bottom half of that dataset.
Mitchy moo
12-01-2006, 02:30 PM
I don't know why you think that's double talk. I said SLIGHT. Think about it this way- if you had to pick a portion of the Bills schedule next year and you had the following two choices, which one would you take:
A: road games against the Patriots, Colts, Ravens, and Bears
B: road games against the Packers, Lions, Buccanneers and Texans
I think the answer is pretty obvious. Certain schedules are easier than others, but the advantage isn't enough to make a huge difference over a 16 game season. There's no double talk in there.
OP, I am telling you it's huge. It's a math thing but the bottom line is SD has a good team but plays a houston type team more often.
OpIv37
12-01-2006, 02:31 PM
I don't think the advantage is slight...I think it is a considerable advantage. I have brought good analysis to the table here to support that position. I think it's hard to understand though.
did you run any statistical tests to see if the differences were statistically significant? Or did you just eyeball it and say that one was greater than the other?
Mitchy moo
12-01-2006, 02:32 PM
http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php?t=7758
I put this on the site in 2002. I also did a similar analysis in 2003 and had similar results. As was stated in my thread Sagarins strenghts are his opinions not based on actual performance on the schedule. My analysis is how teams did throughout the year and at no point does it take into account the game they played that week.
So, I have to say I agree with Scooby and you guys who don't are WAY off base. The teams with weaker schedules have a significantly greater chance of making the playoffs over teams with stronger schedules.
Tah dum, finally someone who is following me here. Thank you Typo, I felt like I was standing on an island off San Diego and OP, RBI and other's are all shooting.
So, how does any of it matter when the Bills face the Chargers on Sunday? Despite who has the harder schedule, most of the time the better team wins, right? Most people who are not Bills or Chargers fans think that the Chargers are teh better team DESPITE their easy schedule.
personally, I kind of got the impression that the NFL playoff system is quite flawed and the best teams aren't the ones that make the playoffs the teams with the weaker schedules are the ones that make the playoffs. In this case, it may mean that Buffalo is a better team than SD because they have played a harder schedule...at least if the counterweight of the harder schedule is enough to indicate we are a better team. I don't believe that's true but the research does seem to indicate a tendency towards some truth there.
Mitchy moo
12-01-2006, 02:35 PM
disagree. the advantage of playing a weaker schedule is very clear and much greater than slight. In short, if you sort the performance based on strength of schedule and appearance in the playoffs there will be a significantly greater amount of teams in the playoffs from the bottom half of that dataset.
A majority of the playoff teams will come from that Data set, it makes them look alot better.
RBI90
12-01-2006, 02:35 PM
No Skooby, there's a difference.
What is being said here is that teams with an easier schedule have an advantage in making the playoffs. I am not arguing that.
What you've tried to argue earlier is that because of the Chargers easy schedule, they weren't a good team. That is a totally different argument.
OpIv37
12-01-2006, 02:36 PM
Tah dum, finally someone who is following me here. Thank you Typo, I felt like I was standing on an island off San Diego and OP, RBI and other's are all shooting.
it still has NOTHING to do with how the Chargers match up against the Bills. You're completely dodging that point. How are the Bills going to run on the Chargers? How are they going to keep Merriman off of JP? And most importantly, how are they going to contain LT?
Figuring out the winning percentage of SD's opponent completely IGNORES all these important points about the game.
did you run any statistical tests to see if the differences were statistically significant? Or did you just eyeball it and say that one was greater than the other?
I don't have enough data to do those kinds of tests...but it's pretty clear that the difference between one out of the ten teams with the most difficult schedules appearing in the playoffs and FIVE of ten with the easiest schedules. This is a decile analysis based on actual performance not some sort of predictive model.
RBI90
12-01-2006, 02:38 PM
personally, I kind of got the impression that the NFL playoff system is quite flawed and the best teams aren't the ones that make the playoffs the teams with the weaker schedules are the ones that make the playoffs. In this case, it may mean that Buffalo is a better team than SD because they have played a harder schedule...at least if the counterweight of the harder schedule is enough to indicate we are a better team. I don't believe that's true but the research does seem to indicate a tendency towards some truth there.
But do the same teams have easy schedules year in and year out? I don't think so, but yet the same teams (barring free agency) tend to make the playoffs for periods of time.
Mitchy moo
12-01-2006, 02:39 PM
No Skooby, there's a difference.
What is being said here is that teams with an easier schedule have an advantage in making the playoffs. I am not arguing that.
What you've tried to argue earlier is that because of the Chargers easy schedule, they weren't a good team. That is a totally different argument.
I never said they didn't have a good team, what I said is they basically never play anybody good.
How are the Bills going to run on the Chargers?
they are going to stack the box and make them beat us in the air...this week we are really going to get a look at what we have in the secondary.
How are they going to keep Merriman off of JP?
Not sure. Hopefully, JP will be getting rid of the ball to combat this.
And most importantly, how are they going to contain LT?
Stack the box big time and make them throw at us.
I really think we can win this week. We have to play well. We have to finish.
Bufftp
12-01-2006, 02:40 PM
Your argument has several major flaws.
First, we ARE one of those easy teams on the Chargers schedule. One of the reasons their schedule is so easy is because WE'RE on it.
Op where you are incorrect regarding the Sagarin ratings the schedule strength is based only on teams thathave been played so far. Thus the Bills do not figure into that equation yet.
Mitchy moo
12-01-2006, 02:43 PM
it still has NOTHING to do with how the Chargers match up against the Bills. You're completely dodging that point. How are the Bills going to run on the Chargers? How are they going to keep Merriman off of JP? And most importantly, how are they going to contain LT?
Figuring out the winning percentage of SD's opponent completely IGNORES all these important points about the game.
If SD played weaker teams it makes them look stronger than we are and consequently we have played much harder teams then them and should not have looked as good as they have.
But do the same teams have easy schedules year in and year out? I don't think so, but yet the same teams (barring free agency) tend to make the playoffs for periods of time.
in some cases they do. Keep in mind you play each opponent in your division twice. that's half the schedule right there. If you are in a weak division your going to make the playoffs over and over.
Plus, there are teams like Indy who are built to last and are just going to run through their schedule making everyone elses weaker because they beat them all the time. That's just good management and some luck.
Mitchy moo
12-01-2006, 02:49 PM
Why does seattle after all their major injuries still end up at 7-4 to this point?
Is it luck or that they had the easiest schedule (#32) ??
Why does seattle after all their major injuries still end up at 7-4 to this point?
Is it luck or that they had the easiest schedule (#32) ??
a little of both for those guys. they really needed people to step up to win those easy games...and they stepped up and won. But had they been playing the better teams they probably would be in the cellar.
OpIv37
12-01-2006, 03:06 PM
If SD played weaker teams it makes them look stronger than we are and consequently we have played much harder teams then them and should not have looked as good as they have.
well we've been terrible against the run and most of the teams we've played aren't as good as running as SD. So, using your logic, what does that tell you?
BoltfanBo
12-01-2006, 03:50 PM
Skoob did it mention in that rating how we pounded the crap out of those bad teams.
Like healthy GOOD team should do
Only lately did we get close games from bad teams. And that's due to injuries. A couple close games we won. Two loses angainst winning teams ON THE ROAD...
I have a feeling if the Bills pulled of road victories against the Broncos and Bengals the site would be filled with post for you saying how the Billls should be getting more respect and how you're heading to the Super Bowl.
raphael120
12-01-2006, 04:25 PM
everyone is a statistician these days...
Mitchy moo
12-01-2006, 04:37 PM
Skoob did it mention in that rating how we pounded the crap out of those bad teams.
Like healthy GOOD team should do
Only lately did we get close games from bad teams. And that's due to injuries. A couple close games we won. Two loses angainst winning teams ON THE ROAD...
I have a feeling if the Bills pulled of road victories against the Broncos and Bengals the site would be filled with post for you saying how the Billls should be getting more respect and how you're heading to the Super Bowl.
You guys really did pound them as well you should. I take nothing away from SD, they have talent but using it against team that are helpless and inept at a .380 winning percentage means you padded your stats. Also the closer games now just help average out your stats against the teams you destroyed, it's just averages.
Mitchy moo
12-01-2006, 04:40 PM
everyone is a statistician these days...
raphael, your right but I based my arguements on the numbers not even knowing someone had broken this down so neatly. I showed exactly what I said to be true.
YardRat
12-01-2006, 06:25 PM
I don't buy into the strenght of schedule argument...it's skewed because the teams with better records are kicking the **** out of the teams with worse records. No kidding. It further highlights the flaws in the argument that only games played to date are figured in.
I don't buy into the strenght of schedule argument...it's skewed because the teams with better records are kicking the **** out of the teams with worse records. No kidding. It further highlights the flaws in the argument that only games played to date are figured in.
I have minimized the effects of that in my analysis. First of all, I calculated the strength of schedule in way that was compiled from each week and the weeks leading up to those weeks but not the week itself. It's kind of hard to explain I guess...but when I calculated the SOS of teams playing in a game that weeks game did not count. I tallied it each week until the end of the season. So one team beating another had no effect on the SOS in that game being played and the tally for the year. Also, this helped to take into account the effects of win streaks and loss streaks.
I am pretty confident in the way this was done. I don't claim to have studied this over long periods of time. I have the queries somewhere but when the billszone pickem game went by the wayside the data was no longer collected. If someone types in the scores I can most likely do this for any season.
So you don't have to buy into it...I will say these are good numbers and the way numbers should be used.
everyone is a statistician these days...
I think I'm pretty well versed in data analysis.
Mitchy moo
12-01-2006, 09:17 PM
I think I'm pretty well versed in data analysis.
You are, I run numbers with my real estate Biz all day and I am constantly calculating and restructing how things need to be played.
Nothing works right everytime but you usually get real closed based on the right math and numbers. Your theory on how to use the numbers is actually ingenius.
mybills
12-02-2006, 05:54 AM
I think I'm pretty well versed in data analysis.
If he only knew what you did for a living!
How's your little girl doing?
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