In with Posey, out with Newman, a big improvement, right? [Archive] - BillsZone.com

03-03-2003, 05:37 AM

For anyone thinking that Posey was a great signing, here are some facts:

Posey's played 6 seasons in the NFL with 4 different teams. He's started only 27 games and never a full season. He's never done anything, but when he has, it was this past season on a team that played a 3-4, had a decent defensively minded coach, on a team that was dead last in time-of-possession with an average of well over a minute less than the 31st ranked team.

He's had 11 sacks in those 6 seasons, 8 in this past one, 3 in the other 5. He's had 94 solo tackles with half of those coming this past season as well, the other half in the other 5 seasons.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/stats?statsId=4534

The word is that Posey's a pass rushing type of LB. He's 6'4", 249 and will be 28 by the time this season starts.

In contrast and comparison, there's Newman, a player that many of us felt was simply snubbed b/c he was a Butler hire. He seems to have played just as well if not better than Posey.

He's also 6'2", 248 but will only be 26 this season and just entering his prime. In 4 seasons he's started 42 games, logged 128 solo tackles and 14.5 sacks in spite of not being given much of shot this past season. He also has a career high 8 sacks in a season but with much better overall performances otherwise.

To recap comparatively:

Posey/Newman
Size: 6'4/249; 6'2"/248
Seasons: 6/4
Career high sacks: 8/8
Career total sacks: 11/14.5
Season high solo tackles: 47/61
Career total solo tackles: 94 (15.7 avg.)/128 (32 avg.)

So why does TD and GW seem to feel that somehow Posey's gonna be anything more than what they thought Newman wasn't. It's beyond me frankly. Meanwhile, reports are that Houston wants Newman and considers him to be at least an equal replacement for Posey.

Go figure!

Our next move had better be a big one.

John Doe

03-03-2003, 05:46 AM

Lots of things are "beyond" you.

03-03-2003, 05:57 AM

Oh, Hooo, you're killing me...

What, another liberal! :D

GREAT insights! ;)

03-03-2003, 05:58 AM

P.S. Statements like that usually represent acquiessence by the inability to refute the arguments.

So I'll take that as a nod of agreement then.

Thanks!

TypicalBill

03-03-2003, 06:07 AM

i think both players are very similar. The money each player wants could have played a major role IMO in this one. I dont know what Newman was asking for, if he wanted more than what Posey got then im with the move, if not, then i dont understand the move.

03-03-2003, 06:18 AM

I hear ya TB. But I don't see how a player who's struggled for 6 seasons before going to the worst team in the league, certainly an expansion team at any rate, with the worst O in the league, is worth the money we're paying him. I don't want to belabor the point, but how many other players w/ similar credentials at other positions or the same, are gonna get that kind of money?

Last year it was Robinson, this year it's Posey. I really think we're all gonna be highly disappointed and Posey will be on the chopping block next year again. We'll see, but I think Newman's fate had more to do with team politics than past performance. That's my take. He wasn't given any opps hardly. And in the past when called upon, he's responded. Otherwise what, are his 8 sacks in a season to be discounted while someone with far fewer overall and on a per average basis, while his 8 seem to bring hopes that override 5 other seasons of poor play and non-contribution?

We'll see, we have no choice. I only want a winning team on the field. I ranted last season that solid D would do more for that than outstanding offense. Yet our offense only brought us to .500 last year and at the hands of scrub teams no less. We simply won't be much better without some serious help on D. Posey is not "serious" help. He's a starting player and even that's debatable.

Meanwhile, everyone keeps applauding Donahoe, for what? For not getting key interviews? For not bringing Thornton or DTs in for talks? Our biggest need right now is DT, and whom have we talked to for interviews? Any of the top 5 or 6 DTs available? Not based on anything that I've heard. For tying up nearly half our FA money on a player that we'd be best to get rid of? For signing who? Posey? Campbell?

I just don't understand why TD's doing such a great job so far this season. When, and if he trades Price, then it'll be a coup if he gets a first rounder out of it. But much less than that and I'll argue to the hills that it won't have been worth tying up the bucks.

Novacane

03-03-2003, 07:09 AM

Originally posted by Wys Guy
I don't want to belabor the point,

Yeah right:D

justasportsfan

03-03-2003, 07:38 AM

Wys, I don't understand your logic on the Posey signing. I won't argue that compared to Newman , Posey may not be much of anything. I think Newman will be a good player for another team.

What I fail to see is how you ague that he is a journeyman and yet you wanted to sign Blake or keep Rob for a million bucks over Drew for vet min. I kinda lost count but how many teams has Blake and Rob played for and done squat?

03-03-2003, 07:48 AM

I know you do just, and that's part of why you differ w/ me so much. Apparently you have difficulty understanding the marginal utility notion too. As long as that's the case, you're right, you won't understand. ;)

I certainly can't put it any simpler although I'll give it one last shot.

Signing Blake, who played quite well I might add, would have allowed us to sign to bigger name players on D, or at least one anyway, a DT presumably. One could argue that we'd have also been 8-8 w/ a much better DL.

As to marginal utility re: Price, let's assume we could sign Moss right now for $5M would it be worth it? Many would argue yes. But the fact of the matter is that such a signing would not improve the team as much as addressing glaring weaknesses on D. Fine, Peterson is overrated. But he's still infinitely better than what we have now or had this past season and would help cement this up and coming D into an allstar unit. Perhaps he'd be the missing link from a chemistry perspective.

I can almost assure you that Posey isn't.

We only signed three players that had and immediate and season changing impact last year: Bledsoe, Williams, and Reed. There wasn't one other signing that did. You could argue Fletcher, but again, that's debatable.

justasportsfan

03-03-2003, 07:53 AM

I may not know my football as well as you wys , but I certainly can see contradiction when I see one. :D

03-03-2003, 07:56 AM

Your problem is that you argue whatever I say. I find it difficult to take you seriously. I don't know if you're joshin' or what.

Say what you will to the contrary. Much of what I say isn't even really football related much of the time. It's merely common sense and logical deducement insofar as football/the Bills are concerned.

Ie., this entire Price v. the D thing. All you need is a rudimentary knowledge of how good our D was in relation to how good our O was this past season to realize that we don't need to upgrade our O at all and need to upgrade our D incredibly.

justasportsfan

03-03-2003, 07:59 AM

Even if we signed Spikes, Douglas, Peterson , Thorton and keep Price (impossible).....I would be optimistic , but I won't say he did a great job in the offseason until we win a SB.

Bulldog

03-03-2003, 08:03 AM

Wys, what would have been the Bills record if they would have not signed Drew and went with D'. If youa re going to tell me above .500 with either Blake or Rob at QB, you are out of your mind. The bottom line is that Buffalo had way too many holes to fill for one offseason. TD decided to go with offense to put some butts in the seats at the Ralph. This offseason, he will address the D'. I would suggest that you reserve your judgement until he is done making moves.

justasportsfan

03-03-2003, 08:04 AM

You've agreed with me wys when I said before that I don't care if we lose Price as long as we beef up our D. We both agree on this.

Yup, sometimes I'm just playin' . Remember the BB.com days how you said I was negative re: the qb situation? The tables have turned and I will have my fun with your negativity. :D

justasportsfan

03-03-2003, 08:10 AM

BTW, I too don't know if your Joshin' coz' I know your start threads and create controversy on this board just to see what peoples reaction are and see if you can argue with their logic. i.e. Bryson :D

03-03-2003, 08:14 AM

Originally posted by justasportsfan
Even if we signed Spikes, Douglas, Peterson , Thorton and keep Price (impossible).....I would be optimistic , but I won't say he did a great job in the offseason until we win a SB.

just, there are a lot of other reasons as to why we might not win a SB. Injuries head the list. Poor coaching decisions. You can't pin the entire thing on Donahoe. He does his job this offseason and then the coaches take over along w/ the players. It's perfectly possible that he puts up a stellar offseason yet the team, for whatever reason, doesn't play as well as it could have.

Originally posted by Bulldog
Wys, what would have been the Bills record if they would have not signed Drew and went with D'. If youa re going to tell me above .500 with either Blake or Rob at QB, you are out of your mind. The bottom line is that Buffalo had way too many holes to fill for one offseason. TD decided to go with offense to put some butts in the seats at the Ralph. This offseason, he will address the D'. I would suggest that you reserve your judgement until he is done making moves.

Bulldog,

So inherent in your statement is that there is no chance on earth that with a significantly better D, that we would have beaten 2-14 Cincy, 3-13 Chicago, 4-12 Houston, 4-12 Detroit, 6-10 Minnesota, 8-8 S.D., an incredibly weakened Miami team twice or have won at least two other games.

That's fine. I think we easily could have and even beaten the Pats once or twice with Blake at QB and a better D. Heck, we only put up 16 offensive points in one Miami game, the best team we beat. You really don't think that Blake could have led the Bills to 1 TD and 3 FGs v. a Miami team w/ no O and only a fraction of the D they've had in recent years?

Well, OK. Like I said, this isn't a question that we're ever going to get an answer to. But I will say this, if 8-8 was all due to Drew, then how come he was 0-8 w/ nearly twice as many INTs than TDs v. the good teams?

A difference of opinion.

Bulldog

03-03-2003, 08:21 AM

Wys, I didn't say that we woulden't have beaten those same teams without Drew and a better D. What I said was we had too many holes to fill for one offseason. While the D may have stepped up and won some games, there would have been times when the offense struggled and coulden't put up the points needed to win.

TedMock

03-03-2003, 08:28 AM

I hope Posey pans out. I actually like Newman and feel that he was misused. I think as of now this signing is a stalemate. If the Newman "old regime" theory is true, which it very well could be, maybe they'll blitz Posey more and it'll be for the best. I hope.

03-03-2003, 08:45 AM

Yeah, me too TM. My only thought however is that if they "use Posey properly", it will be in the exact same manner in which they should have used Newman. Who's to say Posey's the better player of the two? Their records and accomplishments speak to the contrary.

Originally posted by Bulldog
Wys, I didn't say that we woulden't have beaten those same teams without Drew and a better D. What I said was we had too many holes to fill for one offseason. While the D may have stepped up and won some games, there would have been times when the offense struggled and coulden't put up the points needed to win.

Actually Bulldog, with your initial statement, that's just about exactly the essence of what you said. You said we wouldn't have been 8-8 w/o Drew. You said that "I'd be out of my mind to suggest/think that we'd have been 8-8 w/o Drew and had gone w/ D instead."

TedMock

03-03-2003, 09:51 AM

I agree Wys. I don't think Posey's the better player but maybe the change in scenery for Newman and the Bills would be better for both. I still think we could've kept Newman and just replaced Robinson but they weren't high on him for whatever reason. They guy had 8 sacks in his 2nd seasnon, first as a starter, and was a sack machine at North Carolina. It doesn't just go away. I guess it's just time to change even if it's for the "same" player.

03-03-2003, 09:57 AM

I hear ya. But it's those "ifs" and "maybes" that I'm concerned about. They can just as easily be "if nots" and "maybe nots". LOL :)

We really need to sign someone that's gonna get Bills fans excited!!!

Just getting a certifiable starting DT would make me extremely happy. Thornton would be great! That would at least stop the bleeding of our rush D.

Bulldog

03-03-2003, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by Wys Guy
Yeah, me too TM. My only thought however is that if they "use Posey properly", it will be in the exact same manner in which they should have used Newman. Who's to say Posey's the better player of the two? Their records and accomplishments speak to the contrary.

Actually Bulldog, with your initial statement, that's just about exactly the essence of what you said. You said we wouldn't have been 8-8 w/o Drew. You said that "I'd be out of my mind to suggest/think that we'd have been 8-8 w/o Drew and had gone w/ D instead."

I said that we would not have been ABOVE .500 had we not gone with Drew and went with D. Last time I checked, 8-8 was not ABOVE .500. We very well may have went 8-8 by going with D, bottom line is that Buffalo wasn't going to win the SB no matter how the money was spent last offseason, so this whole argument is pointless. :loblo:

03-03-2003, 10:14 AM

Well, we weren't above .500 this past season either. We were .500 and didn't win any of our toughest 8 games. That was largely due to the failure of our offense, not our defense in most of those losses. 21 TOs or 3 TOs/game didn't help. 18 from Drew.

Bulldog

03-03-2003, 11:38 AM

Originally posted by Wys Guy
Well, we weren't above .500 this past season either. We were .500 and didn't win any of our toughest 8 games. That was largely due to the failure of our offense, not our defense in most of those losses. 21 TOs or 3 TOs/game didn't help. 18 from Drew.
Wys, I don't have the time to manipulate the stats the way you do. There were many games when the offense did more than enough to win, but the defense was unable to make stops at key points in the game(Raiders, almost Minn). So don't try to blame the late season collapse soley on the shoulders of Drew. Also, if the defense was so stellar in those 8 losses, then why do you feel we need to address the D so badly this offseason?

The Natrix

03-03-2003, 11:52 AM

Wys, the logic behind the Posey signing is simple.

Yes, we have money to spend, however not a ton of it.

An NFL team doesn't need three great LBs. If so, that would mean they would need a great player at every position.

Trust me, the biggest signing will be a WLB, which I hope is Peterson. Peterson, Fletcher and Posey would be more than adequate considering this D already boasts two outstanding CBs and a dominate DT.

In a LBing trio, there is always going to be a 3rd best. For the Bills, it will be Posey.

I know this sounds oversimplified, but that is because it is very simple.

tell me wys, assuming we need to spend on at least a DT and a dominate WLB as well, who would you rather have in place of Posey?

Also, since you love to dig up stats and facts, why don't you list every team's "3rd best LB" and tell us which ones are better than Posey

...and I don't understand your beef with Fletcher. The guy is a wrecking ball.

BTW, Newman did not want to be here.

The Natrix

03-03-2003, 11:57 AM

as to the title of the thread: No, Posey is not a big improvement (if at all) over Newman. So what?

Peterson or whoever is going to be an astronomical improvement over Eddie "I can't believe I never got pulled last season" Robbinson

BillsNYC

03-03-2003, 12:05 PM

wys...you make a good point with the stats....but sometimes you gotta look past stats and trust the td sees a sleeper that has some skills...11 sacks is pretty impressive...no matter what defense you're in. i look at posey like a draft pick, he has potential..and it could go either way...sometimes you gotta trust td..hes proven hes good at scouting players (except billy jenkins and eddies robinson of course!)

03-03-2003, 12:05 PM

It really all depends upon what happens w/ Price.

Originally posted by Bulldog

Wys, I don't have the time to manipulate the stats the way you do. There were many games when the offense did more than enough to win, but the defense was unable to make stops at key points in the game(Raiders, almost Minn). So don't try to blame the late season collapse soley on the shoulders of Drew. Also, if the defense was so stellar in those 8 losses, then why do you feel we need to address the D so badly this offseason?

Manipulate?

Funny to see you completely dismiss 18 personal TOs through all of that.

BTW, for every game that you can name that the O "did more than enough to win", I can name one where Drew's INTs and FUMs cost us those games.

There's no manipulation involved. Only emotional attachment and a complete pass for Drew who seems to only be able to contribute positive things and never has any of the responsibility in losses.

BTW, perhaps you can explain the two N.E. games then, the K.C. game, the G.B. game, and the second Jets game. Start there and work down. ;) I certainly didn't see the O "doing more than enough to win in those games! Do you?

I honestly don't want to discuss this w/ you now. So I won't beyond that. But your original point was that I'd be out of my mind to have thought that we could have won the same or more games than we did. Yet, you failed to provide any evidence to my assertion that it would not have been very difficult given our circumstances of the 8 wins.

That's all! Let's not focus on last season, let's look ahead to this one and hope we make the right moves to put us in a position to win the division and more this year. It's gonna be a very tough division w/ Pennington emerging, Miami surely to be better w/ healthy WRs and Fiedler, and with N.E. no doubt improving over last season.

THATHURMANATOR

03-03-2003, 12:09 PM

Wys I definitly see your point but while Posey may not have done much early on in his career he played very well last season, while Newman has struggled for two concecutive seasons. It was time for newman to move on and to bring in some fresh blood. I am sure this isn't going to be classified as our "big" move this offseason. Well at least I hope not.

Judge

03-03-2003, 12:13 PM

Originally posted by Wys Guy
Oh, Hooo, you're killing me...

What, another liberal! :D

GREAT insights! ;)

Since when and why is the term "liberal" an insult anyways? Ridiculous how these things happen in our society.

If being a "liberal" means I disagree with Wys and am not afraid to say so, then I'm happy to be called a "liberal". John Doe should too.

Judge

03-03-2003, 12:16 PM

Questions: Has Newman ever had an 8-sack season? I don't have time to look it up right now.

Who will likely be more expensive?

TD said on the radio that guys who know how to play LB can play it either in a 3-4 or 4-3. That's a slam at Newman.

ArcticWildMan

03-03-2003, 12:27 PM

I think the big thing that makes the Posey signing a good thing is that he will bring a new, motivated attitude to the team. Newman for whatever reasons didn't fit the system we have. You could tell by comments he made the past year that he was having attitude problems due to his diminshed contribution.

I'm not knocking Newman, but it's time for him to move on while we bring a new player with a better attitude.

TigerJ

03-03-2003, 12:28 PM

I like Newman. I think he has a great combination of size and speed. It may be that he was misused and underutilized. I would hope that a coaching staff would not deliberately do that because Newman "is not their guy." I don't know if there is any other less jaded explanation for his diminished production the last couple of years.

As for Posey, he is a little bigger and slower than Newman. I don't really hold his lack of production through the first several years of his career against him. He came out of college as a 220lb. defensive end, an undrafted free agent. That's the position he was played at for three years. At that size it's no wonder he didn't get much playing time. After making the switch to OLB, it would have taken him some time to learn the new position, and then he would still have had the problem of getting a chance to prove that he could be something more than a career journeyman. It was only good fortune that gave him the chance to start last season. I admire him for making the most of it. Is he anything more than a one year wonder? Can he produce in a 4-3/46 defensive scheme as well as the 3-4 that Houston ran? I don't know. I hope so. Sometimes football is not so much about who's the better guy as it is being in the right situation at the right time. That's something that is impossible to predict accurately. You just have to take your best shot. There's no question that this comes under the category of a "value pick." He's not a star. He doesn't cost a lot. Buffalo is hoping that his upside is greater than the dollars they will be paying him. TD will need to get some higher profile guys too, and hope enough of the value signings pan out.

03-03-2003, 12:35 PM

Originally posted by Judge
Questions: Has Newman ever had an 8-sack season? I don't have time to look it up right now.

Who will likely be more expensive?

TD said on the radio that guys who know how to play LB can play it either in a 3-4 or 4-3. That's a slam at Newman.

Apparently you don't bother to read the contexts of a conversation either.

You don't have to "look it up." Guess who took the liberty of posting it for you on the very first and starting post of this thread.

Newman's stats supercede Posey's by a wide margin, especially given the # of seasons played. Newman is coming into his prime as well. Posey's already well into it.

To expect more from Posey than he's already done would be unrealistic. His D was not only solid last year, but a 3-4 which we don't play, and on the field more than any other team in the league due to totally inept offensive play of the Texans.

That should be factored into anyone's analysis of Posey, yet I haven't heard it anywhere other than the 3-4 reference.

Earthquake Enyart

03-03-2003, 12:37 PM

Here's what I don't get:

Posey / Player X

Size: 6'4/249; 6'1"/234
Seasons: 6/4
Career high sacks: 8/3
Career total sacks: 11/4.5
Season high solo tackles: 47/112
Career total solo tackles: 94 (15.7 avg.)/332 (83 avg.)

Is Player X worth 3 - 4 times what Posey makes?

TedMock

03-03-2003, 12:44 PM

Without knowing who Player X is I'd say that he's more likely a WLB not a SLB as is Posey. Weakside guys know how to run around and make tackles but aren't necessarily pass rushers. That's where the SLB's come in. Look at Colvin's stats as compared to Peterson or Spikes. Colvin had far fewer tackles but many more sacks due to his position. They're 2 totally different positions and most guys are one or the other.

ArcticWildMan

03-03-2003, 12:45 PM

Exactly!

Romes

03-03-2003, 01:16 PM

Originally posted by The Natrix
Wys, the logic behind the Posey signing is simple.

Yes, we have money to spend, however not a ton of it.

An NFL team doesn't need three great LBs. If so, that would mean they would need a great player at every position.

Trust me, the biggest signing will be a WLB, which I hope is Peterson. Peterson, Fletcher and Posey would be more than adequate considering this D already boasts two outstanding CBs and a dominate DT.

In a LBing trio, there is always going to be a 3rd best. For the Bills, it will be Posey.

I know this sounds oversimplified, but that is because it is very simple.

tell me wys, assuming we need to spend on at least a DT and a dominate WLB as well, who would you rather have in place of Posey?

Also, since you love to dig up stats and facts, why don't you list every team's "3rd best LB" and tell us which ones are better than Posey

...and I don't understand your beef with Fletcher. The guy is a wrecking ball.

BTW, Newman did not want to be here.

Good post! :up:

Yes, just looking at the stats one might question the signing. However, the stats cannot tell you everything about a player. People have to realize that GW and the rest of the coaching staff are proffesionals that have seen talent. Even more so are TD, Modrak and the scouting staff. If they see something in Posey, even if his stats are mediocre, I am willing to go out on a limb and support the signing.

Bulldog

03-03-2003, 02:41 PM

Originally posted by Romes

Good post! :up:

Yes, just looking at the stats one might question the signing. However, the stats cannot tell you everything about a player. People have to realize that GW and the rest of the coaching staff are proffesionals that have seen talent. Even more so are TD, Modrak and the scouting staff. If they see something in Posey, even if his stats are mediocre, I am willing to go out on a limb and support the signing.

Are you suggesting that TD and Modrak know more than Wys?

Bad Romes:banme:

Romes

03-03-2003, 02:44 PM

:ontome:

The_Philster

03-03-2003, 03:31 PM

I think the big difference between the two is money, pure and simple. Everything I've seen on Posey suggests someone similar to Newman without as much overall production. The question is...how much was Newman asking for? As far as Newman not wanting to be here, I don't think that's the case at all...or at least I've never seen any statements about that. He got discouraged at the end of the year for good reason, IMO. He was told he'd be rushing the passer more but it never happened.