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BILLS PLAYOFF CHANCES: Thought I'd provide a closer look at just what the Bills are looking at concerning their playoffs chances. It may not be as dour as some might think.
Here is where things stand with four games to play for the Bills in terms of what they need to do and what they need their AFC competition must do the rest of the way to get the Bills in the postseason.
1. The Bills have to win out - This is pretty much a given if Buffalo wants any chance of getting to the postseason. (I think we all knew this).
However, if they do that they will automatically eliminate Miami and Tennessee as AFC Wild Card competition because they will have a better overall record.
2. The Tiebreakers - This is an inexact exercise since each of the remaining 7 AFC teams that are arguably in contention (excluding Miami and Tennessee above) haven't played their final four games which can compromise some tiebreaking procedures right now.
What I've done is provide the scenarios that would exist if the Bills were tied with any one of these teams. If there is a three-way tie there are different tiebreaking procedures used than in a head-to-head tiebreaker. But with four games to play too much is not known to do the possible three way ties. Plus it would take too much time, and that's time that I simply don't have.
So all the tiebreakers below are Bills head-to-head with one other AFC team.
A. If at the end of the season the Bills (9-7) are tied with Jacksonville for the Wild Card, the Bills would win based on head-to-head record (1-0).
B. If at the end of the season the Bills (9-7) are tied with Pittsburgh, Buffalo would get the Wild Card due to a better conference record (7-5). The Steelers can't finish with a conference record better than 6-6.
C. If at the end of the season the Bills (9-7) are tied with Kansas City, Buffalo would get the Wild Card due to a better conference record (7-5). If the Chiefs finish 9-7 their conference record will be 5-7.
D. If at the end of the season the Bills (9-7) are tied with Cincinnati it would come down to common opponents. Buffalo hasn't played Baltimore (a common opponent) and Cincy hasn't played Indy (another common opponent). At 9-7 we're assuming Buffalo beats Baltimore, but even if Cincy loses to Indy they did beat the Ravens once (they split their two games with Balt.) so I believe Buffalo would lose to the Bengals on tiebreaker. But I have to double check on that.
E. If at the end of the season the Bills (9-7) are tied with Denver it would come down to strength of victory because they each have a 2-2 record in common games. Strength of victory is based on the final W-L records of the opponents a team has beaten. This is impossible to do with four games left. So we don't have an answer here yet.
F. If at the end of the season the Bills (9-7) are tied with the Jets, they would lose on tiebreakers. If we're assuming the Jets lose only two more games and one of them is to Buffalo, that means they would either beat Miami (and the Bills would lose on division tiebreaker) or Minnesota (which would give them a better record against common opponents).
So to sum up the Bills if they win out can take an AFC Wild Card spot in a head-to-head tiebreaker with three other teams that are in contention (KC, Pitt, Jax).
They may be able to beat out the Bengals on tiebreaker if Cincy loses to Indy (still checking on that Balt. split thing). They could beat out Denver based on strength of victory (but we'll have to wait until later in the season).
And they can't beat out the Jets.
Hope I didn't confuse anyone too much.
Here is where things stand with four games to play for the Bills in terms of what they need to do and what they need their AFC competition must do the rest of the way to get the Bills in the postseason.
1. The Bills have to win out - This is pretty much a given if Buffalo wants any chance of getting to the postseason. (I think we all knew this).
However, if they do that they will automatically eliminate Miami and Tennessee as AFC Wild Card competition because they will have a better overall record.
2. The Tiebreakers - This is an inexact exercise since each of the remaining 7 AFC teams that are arguably in contention (excluding Miami and Tennessee above) haven't played their final four games which can compromise some tiebreaking procedures right now.
What I've done is provide the scenarios that would exist if the Bills were tied with any one of these teams. If there is a three-way tie there are different tiebreaking procedures used than in a head-to-head tiebreaker. But with four games to play too much is not known to do the possible three way ties. Plus it would take too much time, and that's time that I simply don't have.
So all the tiebreakers below are Bills head-to-head with one other AFC team.
A. If at the end of the season the Bills (9-7) are tied with Jacksonville for the Wild Card, the Bills would win based on head-to-head record (1-0).
B. If at the end of the season the Bills (9-7) are tied with Pittsburgh, Buffalo would get the Wild Card due to a better conference record (7-5). The Steelers can't finish with a conference record better than 6-6.
C. If at the end of the season the Bills (9-7) are tied with Kansas City, Buffalo would get the Wild Card due to a better conference record (7-5). If the Chiefs finish 9-7 their conference record will be 5-7.
D. If at the end of the season the Bills (9-7) are tied with Cincinnati it would come down to common opponents. Buffalo hasn't played Baltimore (a common opponent) and Cincy hasn't played Indy (another common opponent). At 9-7 we're assuming Buffalo beats Baltimore, but even if Cincy loses to Indy they did beat the Ravens once (they split their two games with Balt.) so I believe Buffalo would lose to the Bengals on tiebreaker. But I have to double check on that.
E. If at the end of the season the Bills (9-7) are tied with Denver it would come down to strength of victory because they each have a 2-2 record in common games. Strength of victory is based on the final W-L records of the opponents a team has beaten. This is impossible to do with four games left. So we don't have an answer here yet.
F. If at the end of the season the Bills (9-7) are tied with the Jets, they would lose on tiebreakers. If we're assuming the Jets lose only two more games and one of them is to Buffalo, that means they would either beat Miami (and the Bills would lose on division tiebreaker) or Minnesota (which would give them a better record against common opponents).
So to sum up the Bills if they win out can take an AFC Wild Card spot in a head-to-head tiebreaker with three other teams that are in contention (KC, Pitt, Jax).
They may be able to beat out the Bengals on tiebreaker if Cincy loses to Indy (still checking on that Balt. split thing). They could beat out Denver based on strength of victory (but we'll have to wait until later in the season).
And they can't beat out the Jets.
Hope I didn't confuse anyone too much.
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