Tweet
Everything went perfect yesterday. We even got a bonus Jacksonville loss. I’ll show you how that helps us later.
Scenario 1. My original plan!
Again, we need to win out (Tenn and at Baltimore). In addition we need the following:
Week 16.
Saturday night – KC over Oakland
1:00 – NE over Jacksonville
4:00 – Cincy over Denver
Christmas night – Miami over Jets
Yes, we need to root for NE and Miami. That’s going to be tough.
Week 17
This is where the Jacksonville loss helps us.
In my old scenario, we needed KC to beat Jacksonville. Now need EITHER:
KC over Jacksonville
OR
SF over Denver.
The reason is that Denver beats us in tie-breakers, but KC beats Denver and we beat KC. So it’s simple. If Denver finishes 9-7, we also need KC to finish 9-7. Because then they would knock out Denver since ties are broken within the division first. If Denver finishes 8-8, then we don’t care what KC does.
Finish (If KC beats Jax)
Buff – 9-7
Den – 9-7
Jets – 9-7
KC – 9-7
Jax –8-8
We beat the Jets on the 4th tie-breaker, KC beats Denver in the AFC West Tie-breaker, Buffalo beats KC on AFC record.
Finish (if SF beats Denver because Jax beat KC)
Buff – 9-7
Jets – 9-7
Jax –9-7
KC – 8-8
Den – 8-8
We beat the Jets on the 4th tie-breaker, Buffalo beats Jax on head to head.
Scenario 2: NEW
This scenario is similar to the first, only in this one, we do not concede the first wild card to Cincy. We concede it to Denver.
Under this scenario, we once again need to win out.
Cincy finishes the season 0-3 (At Indy, At Den, Pitts).
Tonight
Indy over Cincy
Week 16
1:00 – NE over Jacksonville
4:00 – Denver over Cincy
Christmas night – Miami over Jets
Week 17
*Pitts over Cincy
*This is where it gets interesting, we may not actually need this game. This could get confusing.
Assuming Cincy beats to Pittsburgh and finishes 9-7, the race for the last spot would look something like this.
Finish
Buff – 9-7
Cincy – 9-7
Jax – 9-7 or 8-8 (L to NE, and it doesn’t matter about KC. )
Jets – 9-7
KC – 9-7 or 8-8 (W over Oakland, and it doesn’t matter about JAX)
Again, tie-breakers are broken in the division first, therefore we eliminate the Jets based on the 4th tie-breaker.
Then we go to AFC record and Cincy and Buffalo would finish 7-5, while the others would not and thus be eliminated.
Buffalo and Cincy would go to the 4th wild card tiebreaker, which is Strength of victory. As is stands right now, if my plan plays out, The teams we beat have 62 wins and the teams Cincy beat have 57 wins. So as of now, we would have the tie-breaker and would get the spot. Those numbers will change in the last 2 weeks. If we did manage to tie in that 4th tie-breaker it would go to strength of schedule and we would also win that one. So Cincy would have to have a 6 point swing in Strength of victory over the last 2 weeks of the season.
Now if Cincy does lose to Pittsburgh in week 17, Strength of victory won’t matter because they’ll finish a game behind us at 8-8. It would look like this:
Finish
Buff – 9-7
Jax – 9-7 or 8-8 (L to NE, and it doesn’t matter about KC. )
Jets – 9-7
KC – 9-7 or 8-8 (W over Oakland, and it doesn’t matter about JAX)
Cincy – 8-8.
Like the scenario above, we beat Jets on 4th tiebreaker, and we’d beat either the Jags or KC on tie-breaker. We’re in the playoffs.
Scenario 1. My original plan!
Again, we need to win out (Tenn and at Baltimore). In addition we need the following:
Week 16.
Saturday night – KC over Oakland
1:00 – NE over Jacksonville
4:00 – Cincy over Denver
Christmas night – Miami over Jets
Yes, we need to root for NE and Miami. That’s going to be tough.
Week 17
This is where the Jacksonville loss helps us.
In my old scenario, we needed KC to beat Jacksonville. Now need EITHER:
KC over Jacksonville
OR
SF over Denver.
The reason is that Denver beats us in tie-breakers, but KC beats Denver and we beat KC. So it’s simple. If Denver finishes 9-7, we also need KC to finish 9-7. Because then they would knock out Denver since ties are broken within the division first. If Denver finishes 8-8, then we don’t care what KC does.
Finish (If KC beats Jax)
Buff – 9-7
Den – 9-7
Jets – 9-7
KC – 9-7
Jax –8-8
We beat the Jets on the 4th tie-breaker, KC beats Denver in the AFC West Tie-breaker, Buffalo beats KC on AFC record.
Finish (if SF beats Denver because Jax beat KC)
Buff – 9-7
Jets – 9-7
Jax –9-7
KC – 8-8
Den – 8-8
We beat the Jets on the 4th tie-breaker, Buffalo beats Jax on head to head.
Scenario 2: NEW
This scenario is similar to the first, only in this one, we do not concede the first wild card to Cincy. We concede it to Denver.
Under this scenario, we once again need to win out.
Cincy finishes the season 0-3 (At Indy, At Den, Pitts).
Tonight
Indy over Cincy
Week 16
1:00 – NE over Jacksonville
4:00 – Denver over Cincy
Christmas night – Miami over Jets
Week 17
*Pitts over Cincy
*This is where it gets interesting, we may not actually need this game. This could get confusing.
Assuming Cincy beats to Pittsburgh and finishes 9-7, the race for the last spot would look something like this.
Finish
Buff – 9-7
Cincy – 9-7
Jax – 9-7 or 8-8 (L to NE, and it doesn’t matter about KC. )
Jets – 9-7
KC – 9-7 or 8-8 (W over Oakland, and it doesn’t matter about JAX)
Again, tie-breakers are broken in the division first, therefore we eliminate the Jets based on the 4th tie-breaker.
Then we go to AFC record and Cincy and Buffalo would finish 7-5, while the others would not and thus be eliminated.
Buffalo and Cincy would go to the 4th wild card tiebreaker, which is Strength of victory. As is stands right now, if my plan plays out, The teams we beat have 62 wins and the teams Cincy beat have 57 wins. So as of now, we would have the tie-breaker and would get the spot. Those numbers will change in the last 2 weeks. If we did manage to tie in that 4th tie-breaker it would go to strength of schedule and we would also win that one. So Cincy would have to have a 6 point swing in Strength of victory over the last 2 weeks of the season.
Now if Cincy does lose to Pittsburgh in week 17, Strength of victory won’t matter because they’ll finish a game behind us at 8-8. It would look like this:
Finish
Buff – 9-7
Jax – 9-7 or 8-8 (L to NE, and it doesn’t matter about KC. )
Jets – 9-7
KC – 9-7 or 8-8 (W over Oakland, and it doesn’t matter about JAX)
Cincy – 8-8.
Like the scenario above, we beat Jets on 4th tiebreaker, and we’d beat either the Jags or KC on tie-breaker. We’re in the playoffs.
Comment