Playoffs, after last night.

[Patrick76777]

Scenario Number 1: Concede to Cincy

Week 16
KC over Oakland (In Oakland)
Buffalo over Tennessee (In Buffalo)
NE over Jacksonville * (In Jacksonville)
Cincy over Denver (In Denver)
Miami over Jets (In Miami

Week 17
Buffalo over Baltimore (In Baltimore)
And either
KC over Jacksonville (In KC)
Or
SF over Denver (In Denver)

* NE over Jacksonville is an optional game. If Jacksonville beats New England it would only mean that we would need KC over Jax in week 17 and the SF Denver game would be meaningless to us.

Scenario Number 2: Concede to Denver

Week 16
Buffalo over Tennessee
NE over Jacksonville
Denver over Cincy
Miami over Jets

Week 17
Buffalo over Baltimore*

* Buffalo looks to have the strength of victory tie-breaker over Cincy. If by some chance, they do manage to pass us on strength of victory, we’ll also need Pittsburgh to beat Cincy.

Scenario number 3: Concede to the Jets

Week 16

KC over Oakland
Buffalo over Tennessee
NE over Jacksonville
Cincy over Denver

Week 17
Buffalo over Baltimore
Pittsburgh over Cincy
and either
KC over Jacksonville
or
SF over Denver

Scenario 4, concede to NOBODY

Week 16
KC over Oakland
Buffalo over Tennessee
Cincy over Denver
Miami over Jets

Week 17
Buffalo over Baltimore
Pittsburgh over Cincy (In Cincy)
KC over Jacksonville


Buffalo 9-7
KC 9-7
Denver 9-7
Jacksonville 9-7
Cincy 9-7
Jets 9-7

Bills over Jets and KC over Denver in the Division Tie-Breakers

Leaving
Buffalo, KC, Cincy and Jacksonville.

Buffalo and Cincy would both be 7-5 in the AFC and it wouldn’t matter who’s better, they’d both get in.


There are other things that can happen, but these are 4 scenarios that would get us in.


I like Scenario 2 the best.

[Earthquake Enyart]

I think 3 is the most workable. I think Cincy comes back strong and beats Denver with a rookie QB.

The Steelers are hot, and they would beat Cincy to knock them out in week 17.

I'm starting to think that we're actually going to get in. :eek:

[BlackMetalNinja]

So in scenario 2... say the Jets beat the crappy Fish this week, what does that leave us needing in Week 17 besides a win?

[billsburgh]

winning in Baltimore will be no easy chore. that will be a very diffcult game to win. not impossible, but difficult.

[Patrick76777]

So in scenario 2... say the Jets beat the crappy Fish this week, what does that leave us needing in Week 17 besides a win?


SF over Denver

and

KC over Oakland and Jacksonville.

[BlackMetalNinja]

SF over Denver

and

KC over Oakland and Jacksonville.

Yuck... Go Fish... Double Yuck! :(

[Romes]

Bills football in January :pray:

[Dr. Lecter]

I like Scenario 2 as well with scenario 3 as second most likely.

[Patrick76777]

I like Scenario 2 as well with scenario 3 as second most likely.


There is a scenario where we concede to NOBODY!


Week 16
KC over Oakland
Buffalo over Tennessee
Cincy over Denver
Miami over Jets

Week 17
Buffalo over Baltimore
Pittsburgh over Cincy
KC over Jacksonville


Buffalo 9-7
KC 9-7
Denver 9-7
Jacksonville 9-7
Cincy 9-7
Jets 9-7

Bills over Jets and KC over Denver in the Division Tie-Breakers

Leaving
Buffalo, KC, Cincy and Jacksonville.

Buffalo and Cincy would both be 7-5 in the AFC and it wouldn’t matter who’s better, they’d both get in.

I shall call it, Scenario 4.

[Gunzlingr]

Not impossible :nervous:

[Tatonka]

who do the jets play in week 17? we may need them to lose that game.

[BAM]

Pat, you're the man! :bf1:

Like our chances assuming we keep winning.

[Dr. Lecter]

They need to lose to Miami. The last game for them is meaningless for the Bills. (They play Oakland)

[Earthquake Enyart]

Scenario 4, doesn't Jax have to lose to NE?

[Patrick76777]

who do the jets play in week 17? we may need them to lose that game.


Oakland. In New York.

[Patrick76777]

Scenario 4, doesn't Jax have to lose to NE?


Nope, the loss in KC in week 17 would put them at 9-7 and 6-6 in the AFC, we'd beat them.

[Jimbuktu]

What about Pittsburgh, I think they would have to lose to Baltimore this week for scenario 4 to come to fruition ... correct?

[Patrick76777]

What about Pittsburgh, I think they would have to lose to Baltimore this week for scenario 4 to come to fruition ... correct?


Nope, if Pittsburgh wins out they'll be 9-7, 6-6 in the AFC and we'd be 9-7, 7-5 in the AFC. We'd win.

[LtBillsFan66]

Thanks for putting this together Pat. I'm going to print it out so I don't forget who to root for this week!

[BAM]

Thanks for putting this together Pat. I'm going to print it out so I don't forget who to root for this week!
I was just about to write the same thing. I'm sure some of our crew have no idea what's going on so this'll help!

I had a little printout with me last week that I kept looking at but didn't show it to anyone yet...

This'll come in handy!

[TigerJ]

Tell me why KC needs to beat Oakland in any scenario.

[Saratoga Slim]

So what it comes down to is we need to win out and let the chips fall where they may. I'm glad we're playing Tennessee at home, b/c they've been HOT. At Baltimore will be a doozy, but I'm not afraid of their offense. Possible.

I had no expectation whatsoever, before the season or at any time until this week, that we'd be debating playoffs going into week 16. Wow!

[Earthquake Enyart]

It wouldn't surprise me if Vince Young has never played in the snow before.

We're gonna get a big dose of Travis Henry, though. :ill:

[Patrick76777]

Tell me why KC needs to beat Oakland in any scenario.



Because we'd lose to Denver on a Tiebreaker, but if KC is also tied at 9-7, tiebreakers are broken in the division first, Therefore, it KC would eliminate Denver because they have a better AFC West Record.

Then we would beat KC on a AFC record.

[Jimbuktu]

Tell me why KC needs to beat Oakland in any scenario.

i THINK because we need them to have the division tiebreaker over Denver ... I THINK

[jdbillsfan]

This is definitely exciting. I am really excited for the Bills game on Sunday. Hopefully we can contain Travis Henry. If so, I think we should win.

I think scenario 3 is the most likely. I just don't see the Dolphins beating the Jets. The Dolphins looked terrible.

I can see week 17 playing out like that in scenario 3 though. I can see Pitt wanting to spoil Cincy's playoffs. They are good at stuff like that and they hate each other.

I am nervous about KC at Jax or SF at Denver winning though. I don't think they win.

We'll see.

[Patrick76777]

I am nervous about KC at Jax or SF at Denver winning though. I don't think they win.

We'll see.


The KC game is in KC, if that makes a diff.

[LtBillsFan66]

I was just about to write the same thing. I'm sure some of our crew have no idea what's going on so this'll help!

I had a little printout with me last week that I kept looking at but didn't show it to anyone yet...

This'll come in handy!
I'm not going to show it to anyone. I'm going to play it off like I'm an expert!

[Jimbuktu]

Oh it does ... it does

[Earthquake Enyart]

The KC game is in KC, if that makes a diff.
It makes a big difference. KC plays much better at home and the Jags blow chunks on the road.

[mchurchfie]

It wouldn't surprise me if Vince Young has never played in the snow before.

We're gonna get a big dose of Travis Henry, though. :ill:I'd be more afraid of Young running wild than Henry. If we contain the QB scramble we'll win. I can't believe we're talking playoffs!:coocoo:

[Earthquake Enyart]

I'm hoping that Young looks like an early season JP and turns the ball over to us 3 or 4 times. :biggrin:

[Jeff1220]

I'll worry about these scenarios after the Bills get by Tennessee. Even then I am more focused on wanting the Bills to win than on the rest of this stuff playing out. If it happens, we'd all be so happy, but the Bills have to win their own first and foremost. So GO BILLS!

[The last buffalo fan]

:jam: :drunks: :drive:

[TigerJ]

Because we'd lose to Denver on a Tiebreaker, but if KC is also tied at 9-7, tiebreakers are broken in the division first, Therefore, it KC would eliminate Denver because they have a better AFC West Record.

Then we would beat KC on a AFC record.

Copied and pasted from NFL.com:


TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.
1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps. Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.<!--Best net points in division games.Best average net points in conference games.-->
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers

Teams not from the same division-head to head, conference percentage, common games etc. Division record is irrelavant.

[Luisito23]

You're da F^$^*^* man Pat, and so it's everyone else for keeping the faith up.....Should be a great game though, 2 young, up and coming, and exciting teams, to have just too bad we're better....too bad we have a better offense....too bad we're playing home......:; ....:drive: :beers: :beers: :beers:....






GO BILLS!!!!!

[Patrick76777]

Copied and pasted from NFL.com:


TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.
1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps. Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.<!--Best net points in division games.Best average net points in conference games.-->
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

Teams not from the same division-head to head, conference percentage, common games etc. Division record is irrelavant.

Tiger, what are you trying to do to me?


Also copied and pasted from the NFL.com website

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.


so all ties are broken within the division first. So they'd have to determine the 2nd place team in the AFC West. Since KC and Denver would both be 9-7 and KC would be 4-2 in the West while Denver is 3-3, KC finishs 2nd in the west and Denver is eliminated.