What now? A long look

[X-Era]

So what now?

Well lets take a look at whats liekly to happen. I think a major part of what the Bills will do will be based on Jaurons say and Marvs. A friend made a good point that Marv has said the best FA's to sign are your own. I seem to remember him saying that back in the day. As far as Dick goes, I t hink our moves at the bye, and keeping all our draftees speak volumes. I originally wanted us to make huge sweeping moves, but I really dont see that happening and I explain why in each case. I think our late surge may have Dick and Marv not wanting to mess with a good thing. Ralphs comments about money make me think he isnt likely to break the bank. I honestly believe what JP says which is the personnel is already here to be a SB team, but he also has never been to win so does he really know what it takes. Anyways, I ccan easily see another conservative offseason.

Heres the sensible (hopefully Marv and Dicks) version of what we do:

QB- Nothing, KH can be a backup, he wasnt a cancer so he can stay, 3rd can be had just about any way
RB- Nothing, Willis can be great, but at the minimum is solid
TE- Maybe a youngster to push Royal. Royal made a late surge and may continue.
FB- Maybe a youngster to push Shelton. May not be necessary, but Sheltons long in the tooth
LT- Nothing, we have a stud here. Backup can be manned by any of the current prospects
LG- Depends on Gandy, hes a FA. Hes been part of a successful unit after the bye, hes an x-Bear, hes done pretty well in his new position. Youngster to push him would be nice, but I can easily see Gandy getting resigned to a modest second tier OG contract, and being handed the job next year. Take a look at our success running the ball vs. which side we run to, we are doing very well on the L side, Gandy may stay. Reyes is likely cut.
C- Fowler is a Jauron brought guy. I would love to see a big upgrade here. I honestly havent watched the middle that closely, but in the Titans game I did notice Fowler getting destroyed. I think a Mangold/Mawae type C could make this line great. But, since Fowler is a Jauron guy I could see us giving him the job too.
RG- Preston has played well, Villarial is likely going to be cut. But an upgrade here would be great. The previously stated run stats about success vs. side of the line shows our line on the right side is weak as far as run production goes. Steinbach is a LG, but a switch may be easy. Jauron had Preston as a backup, Villarial (even though he was a Jauron guy) was part of the pathetic pre-bye OL, I can see us heading in a new direction. Womack is another guy I like alot but Im not sure Jauron likes the bigger, fatter types. I think a change is likely.
RT- Pennington is a Jauron draftee and was promoted to being a starter and stayed there. He also has done a decent job, considering his youth. I could easily see Pennington getting the job outright. With Butler as a backup, we may look for either another mid to late rounder or a second tier backup just for security. I think Jaurons move to start TP telegraph what we will do next year as well
WR- #1 and #3 is set. Peerless played well in the 2nd half and was brought in by the current regime. Josh also played well. Parrish had some sparks, but also some dumb plays. I see Josh and Peerless staying and playing, Parrish may be a bubble guy. The big question is whether Peerless can be all we need as #2, I think Jauron, and especially JP may argue he is just fine due to his post-bye surge. I can also see us grabbing a early draft day guy who drops into our laps. It would be a "greatest value at the pick" type pick a.l.a. Willis. Maybe a guy who could be the new punt returner or even kick returner if Clements bolts and we dont want to risk McGee to injury. A guy like Ginn Jr might make sense, Paul Williams may be another.

DE- at RDE we are set, at LDE Kelsay and Denney are both UFA's. I can see one leaving. So that makes a LDE a big need due to the rotation theory. Jauron made no real moves, so theres no guys that would seem to be Jaurons guy to fill in. I can see LDE being a priority for a Tampa 2 style team. I can see this from either the draft or FA or both. If Freeney is allowed to leave, he plays in Tampa 2, is a Syracuse alumn, I would think we would COVET him. In the draft, I could see tweener types like Moses, Adams, Woodley fitting the Bill.
DT- Mccargo will be back from injury and we moved up to get him, Williams was a real sleeper and nice suprise, Tripplett was solid but lackluster. Hargrove was a great mid season add that helped us get better pressure. I can see the need for one more rotation type, a run stuffer would be great, but we also cant get a strict situational guy due to giving away our D to the opposing O. I think another quick DT may be a move we make.
OLB- Spikes made a late surge as a very solid player, hes not a top 5 or even 10 guy as of now, but I think he still is hampered by injury. This is a big question mark. Hes not a Jauron guy, he makes alot of money, and hes had a so so year. There is likely to be great players/prospects available in FA and the draft. Briggs, June, Adalius Thomas, Puz, Blades, and more are going to be out there. I could see us going either way, hoping TKO steps up more, or getting insurance through the draft or FA. At the other spot, Crowell will be back and Ellison proved to be pretty solid. I can see 1 OLB being a spot we look at.
ILB- Fletch is the heart of our D, and has proven yet again that hes a stud (even if the idiotic pro-bowl voters cant get it right), hes not going to command big money at his age, and Ralph is rumored to be a huge Fletch fan. I see him getting resigned. The backup/insurance could happen but I think we may be looking at a mid or late rounder or second tier guy.
CB- Even though I want Nate back I think hes gone. McGee is locked up long term, Thomas made some decent plays, and Youbouty was a Jauron draftee that will be given a shot next year. I see this being one of our biggest priorities if you agree Nate is as good as gone. We just cant afford to let our pass D get worse and remain a playoff contender. Guys like Brady will pick us apart without a strong starting CB. FA is likely to cost us heavy. I could easily see the draft being our way to fix it (in the Bills minds). Its most likely going to be an early pick due to the need to have a very good one. Guys like Hughes/Hall would seem to be fits.
S- Both are set for a long time, the rookies made mistakes but both started virtually from day one, both are Jauron draftees, and both played well enough to earn a 8th ranked pass D. We even have Bowen signed long term to be a backup.
P- Moormans not going anywhere and is a perrenial pro-bowler case closed
K- Lindell is a quandry. The team plays half its games in windy Buffalo. The kick that he admitted he could not make just cost us the playoffs. Hes made many FG's this year and even some game winners. But will Jauron and Co. after a bitter loss want a guy with a stronger leg due to the winds? I could see a change being made, the big question is, is there anyone better with a stronger leg? I just cant answer that. To me it could go either way.

I think backups/support/youngsters to push will rule our offseason. I do think we will make a few big moves but its only going to be a few.

[DraftBoy]

Good overall analysis, Ill add my finer points later on

[SABURZFAN]

i wonder what ICE would think? :huh:

[X-Era]

Good overall analysis, Ill add my finer points later on

Heres a crack at the draft based on my post:

1) Marcus McCauley
2) Ryan Kalil
3) Buster Davis
4) Paul Williams
5) Matt Trannon
6) Garrett Wolfe
7) BPA

FA:

Steinbach or Womack

[X-Era]

i wonder what ICE would think? :huh:

Im actually interested in your take. Set the QB issue aside.

[alohabillsfan]

Heres a crack at the draft based on my post:

1) Marcus McCauley
2) Ryan Kalil
3) Buster Davis
4) Paul Williams
5) Matt Trannon
6) Garrett Wolfe
7) BPA

FA:

Steinbach or Womack


I agree that I do not think we will make a huge splash into FA,I would be estatic if we resign Gandy, Fletch, OLB and another guard. as far as the draft no names yet but positions are in order;

DT
DE
RB
ILB
CB
OT

[Cntrygal]

I disagree about Lindell's not taking that kick made us miss the playoffs. If the playcalling for that series had been more focused on moving the ball instead of burning the clock - we probably would have gotten close enough for a FG or even a TD.

Besides, we lost plenty of other close games earlier in the season.

[X-Era]

I disagree about Lindell's not taking that kick made us miss the playoffs. If the playcalling for that series had been more focused on moving the ball instead of burning the clock - we probably would have gotten close enough for a FG or even a TD.

Besides, we lost plenty of other close games earlier in the season.

Yes, I agree. I actually pointed to how productive Lindell was. However, can we accept a FG kicker who cant kick a 45 yarder with the game on the line in windy Buff? I have never noticed this issue before, maybe its always been there with all our other kickers. Yes, there were plenty of other plays that cost us, the 36 yard Young run was flat out unacceptable for any defense.

Thats why I said I feel its a quandry. Do we need someone who can kick 45+ yards with accuracy in windy Buffalo? Is it even possible?

[Dr. Lecter]

One correction: Denney is not an UFA.

[X-Era]

One correction: Denney is not an UFA.

Not a one year last year? let me check

Your right good call, 4 year contract signed last year!

That eases my mind a bit. I think it likely means 1 DE needs to be added.

[losman420]

i miss steve christie

[X-Era]

I agree that I do not think we will make a huge splash into FA,I would be estatic if we resign Gandy, Fletch, OLB and another guard. as far as the draft no names yet but positions are in order;

DT
DE
RB
ILB
CB
OT

So Clements walks and you list CB as the 5th most important position???

[BILLSROCK1212]

FA

Boss Bailey, Rod Coleman, a Ruben Brown return would be kool but is unlikely,
Cooper Carlisle, Kevin Curtis, Shaun O'Hara, Leonard Little, and Rian Lindell who we have just resigned

the majority of the above have some connection to this team and would all make our team a playoff caliber team

In the draft we should address CB first assuming Nate Clements becomes a FA and then O-line

Mock Draft

1. Levi Brown OT Penn St.
2. Fred Bennett CB South Carolina
3. Ryan Kalil C USC-his father Frank was drafted by the Bills (if not him Kyle Young St.)
4. Ray McDonald DT/DE Florida
6. Tim Shaw ILB Penn St
7. Scott Chandler TE Iowa

[YardRat]

Nice post, jp.

[Dr. Lecter]

Don't count out a Ruben return. He is an old Marv guy.

[BILLSROCK1212]

Don't count out a Ruben return. He is an old Marv guy.yup i guess yur rite it isnt unlikely and we have a cuple members on our staff who were there when he was there

[X-Era]

Don't count out a Ruben return. He is an old Marv guy.

At 34? He can play, but we all got sick of the penalties.

Hes an upgrade to Preston, but Preston will get better, Ruben will get worse.

[Typ0]

They seemed to run those four downs like they were playing for the FG and they should have tried it. There is always a chance a gust will come along that will help the ball go over. But I don't hold Lindel responsible for saying he couldn't make the kick I hold the coaching staff responsible for not keeping up with that situation at such a crucial time. It was clear in the second half the ball was hitting a brick wall of wind in that part of the field.

[X-Era]

They seemed to run those four downs like they were playing for the FG and they should have tried it. There is always a chance a gust will come along that will help the ball go over. But I don't hold Lindel responsible for saying he couldn't make the kick I hold the coaching staff responsible for not keeping up with that situation at such a crucial time. It was clear in the second half the ball was hitting a brick wall of wind in that part of the field.

It is what it is, the Lindell non-kcik may have been the last play that cost us but there were plenty others. The 4th down run by VY for 36 yards and a TD is inexcusable as well.

I just cant help but feel that any team will have a day like that. The good or great teams win enough games so that it doesnt matter, they can lose one or two.

[X-Era]

They seemed to run those four downs like they were playing for the FG and they should have tried it. There is always a chance a gust will come along that will help the ball go over. But I don't hold Lindel responsible for saying he couldn't make the kick I hold the coaching staff responsible for not keeping up with that situation at such a crucial time. It was clear in the second half the ball was hitting a brick wall of wind in that part of the field.

Nice little Bills fan by the way!

[X-Era]

So what now?

Well lets take a look at whats liekly to happen. I think a major part of what the Bills will do will be based on Jaurons say and Marvs. A friend made a good point that Marv has said the best FA's to sign are your own. I seem to remember him saying that back in the day. As far as Dick goes, I t hink our moves at the bye, and keeping all our draftees speak volumes. I originally wanted us to make huge sweeping moves, but I really dont see that happening and I explain why in each case. I think our late surge may have Dick and Marv not wanting to mess with a good thing. Ralphs comments about money make me think he isnt likely to break the bank. I honestly believe what JP says which is the personnel is already here to be a SB team, but he also has never been to win so does he really know what it takes. Anyways, I ccan easily see another conservative offseason.

Heres the sensible (hopefully Marv and Dicks) version of what we do:

QB- Nothing, KH can be a backup, he wasnt a cancer so he can stay, 3rd can be had just about any way
RB- Nothing, Willis can be great, but at the minimum is solid. Update 12-29 Willis wants an extension
TE- Maybe a youngster to push Royal. Royal made a late surge and may continue.
FB- Maybe a youngster to push Shelton. May not be necessary, but Sheltons long in the tooth
LT- Nothing, we have a stud here. Backup can be manned by any of the current prospects
LG- Depends on Gandy, hes a FA. Hes been part of a successful unit after the bye, hes an x-Bear, hes done pretty well in his new position. Youngster to push him would be nice, but I can easily see Gandy getting resigned to a modest second tier OG contract, and being handed the job next year. Take a look at our success running the ball vs. which side we run to, we are doing very well on the L side, Gandy may stay. Reyes is likely cut. Update 12-29, Bills are said to want Gandy back
C- Fowler is a Jauron brought guy. I would love to see a big upgrade here. I honestly havent watched the middle that closely, but in the Titans game I did notice Fowler getting destroyed. I think a Mangold/Mawae type C could make this line great. But, since Fowler is a Jauron guy I could see us giving him the job too.
RG- Preston has played well, Villarial is likely going to be cut. But an upgrade here would be great. The previously stated run stats about success vs. side of the line shows our line on the right side is weak as far as run production goes. Steinbach is a LG, but a switch may be easy. Jauron had Preston as a backup, Villarial (even though he was a Jauron guy) was part of the pathetic pre-bye OL, I can see us heading in a new direction. Womack is another guy I like alot but Im not sure Jauron likes the bigger, fatter types. I think a change is likely.
RT- Pennington is a Jauron draftee and was promoted to being a starter and stayed there. He also has done a decent job, considering his youth. I could easily see Pennington getting the job outright. With Butler as a backup, we may look for either another mid to late rounder or a second tier backup just for security. I think Jaurons move to start TP telegraph what we will do next year as well
WR- #1 and #3 is set. Peerless played well in the 2nd half and was brought in by the current regime. Josh also played well. Parrish had some sparks, but also some dumb plays. I see Josh and Peerless staying and playing, Parrish may be a bubble guy. The big question is whether Peerless can be all we need as #2, I think Jauron, and especially JP may argue he is just fine due to his post-bye surge. I can also see us grabbing a early draft day guy who drops into our laps. It would be a "greatest value at the pick" type pick a.l.a. Willis. Maybe a guy who could be the new punt returner or even kick returner if Clements bolts and we dont want to risk McGee to injury. A guy like Ginn Jr might make sense, Paul Williams may be another.

DE- at RDE we are set, at LDE Kelsay and Denney are both UFA's. I can see one leaving. So that makes a LDE a big need due to the rotation theory. Jauron made no real moves, so theres no guys that would seem to be Jaurons guy to fill in. I can see LDE being a priority for a Tampa 2 style team. I can see this from either the draft or FA or both. If Freeney is allowed to leave, he plays in Tampa 2, is a Syracuse alumn, I would think we would COVET him. In the draft, I could see tweener types like Moses, Adams, Woodley fitting the Bill.
DT- Mccargo will be back from injury and we moved up to get him, Williams was a real sleeper and nice suprise, Tripplett was solid but lackluster. Hargrove was a great mid season add that helped us get better pressure. I can see the need for one more rotation type, a run stuffer would be great, but we also cant get a strict situational guy due to giving away our D to the opposing O. I think another quick DT may be a move we make.
OLB- Spikes made a late surge as a very solid player, hes not a top 5 or even 10 guy as of now, but I think he still is hampered by injury. This is a big question mark. Hes not a Jauron guy, he makes alot of money, and hes had a so so year. There is likely to be great players/prospects available in FA and the draft. Briggs, June, Adalius Thomas, Puz, Blades, and more are going to be out there. I could see us going either way, hoping TKO steps up more, or getting insurance through the draft or FA. At the other spot, Crowell will be back and Ellison proved to be pretty solid. I can see 1 OLB being a spot we look at.
ILB- Fletch is the heart of our D, and has proven yet again that hes a stud (even if the idiotic pro-bowl voters cant get it right), hes not going to command big money at his age, and Ralph is rumored to be a huge Fletch fan. I see him getting resigned. The backup/insurance could happen but I think we may be looking at a mid or late rounder or second tier guy. Update 12-29 Fletch non commital as to whether he wants to stay or not, Rosen-ahole is his agent
CB- Even though I want Nate back I think hes gone. McGee is locked up long term, Thomas made some decent plays, and Youbouty was a Jauron draftee that will be given a shot next year. I see this being one of our biggest priorities if you agree Nate is as good as gone. We just cant afford to let our pass D get worse and remain a playoff contender. Guys like Brady will pick us apart without a strong starting CB. FA is likely to cost us heavy. I could easily see the draft being our way to fix it (in the Bills minds). Its most likely going to be an early pick due to the need to have a very good one. Guys like Hughes/Hall would seem to be fits.
S- Both are set for a long time, the rookies made mistakes but both started virtually from day one, both are Jauron draftees, and both played well enough to earn a 8th ranked pass D. We even have Bowen signed long term to be a backup.
P- Moormans not going anywhere and is a perrenial pro-bowler case closed
K- Lindell is a quandry. The team plays half its games in windy Buffalo. The kick that he admitted he could not make just cost us the playoffs. Hes made many FG's this year and even some game winners. But will Jauron and Co. after a bitter loss want a guy with a stronger leg due to the winds? I could see a change being made, the big question is, is there anyone better with a stronger leg? I just cant answer that. To me it could go either way. Quandry answered Lindell has been resigned.

I think backups/support/youngsters to push will rule our offseason. I do think we will make a few big moves but its only going to be a few.

[ShadowHawk7]

In reply to JP's points. (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php?p=1782981#post1782981)

QB- Agreed. Holcomb has proved in the past that he can be a very good #2.

RB- I say draft a mid-rounder here to push McGahee a bit. I'm growing impatient with his inconsistency. It's high time we pluck an apple from the tree of RBs that could easily surprise us.

TE- Agreed, give Cieslak a few more opportunities

FB-Agreed

LT- Agreed

LG- Resign Gandy, he's done a solid job.

C- We are decent here, but it won't get any better w/o an upgrade. Draft a high potential raw prospect that may over take Fowler midseasonish.

RG-If we are going to pickup one stud OL, it should be here.

RT- I could see a vet coming in to do battle w/ TP.

WR- Although I don't think Parrish is on the bubble yet, Price may be. We may aggressively seek a #2 via FA or draft this offseason.


DE- Resign Kelsay then we're set.

DT- Too much has been invested here to draft another 1st rounder. I say rid ourselves of Anderson and pickup a vet DT to help us mainly in the run game.

LB- Agreed. We need to get at least one more solid player here.

CB- Agreed. KT is a solid #3, which gives us time w/ Youboty, but we will need to pickup another potential #1 in the offseason. Shawn Springs, Harper from the Colts, or 1st day draft choice are candidates.

S, K, P - We are set. Lindell just signed a new deal so we can stop talking about him.

[X-Era]

In reply to JP's points. (http://www.billszone.com/fanzone/showthread.php?p=1782981#post1782981)

QB- Agreed. Holcomb has proved in the past that he can be a very good #2.

RB- I say draft a mid-rounder here to push McGahee a bit. I'm growing impatient with his inconsistency. It's high time we pluck an apple from the tree of RBs that could easily surprise us.

TE- Agreed, give Cieslak a few more opportunities

FB-Agreed

LT- Agreed

LG- Resign Gandy, he's done a solid job.

C- We are decent here, but it won't get any better w/o an upgrade. Draft a high potential raw prospect that may over take Fowler midseasonish.

RG-If we are going to pickup one stud OL, it should be here.

RT- I could see a vet coming in to do battle w/ TP.

WR- Although I don't think Parrish is on the bubble yet, Price may be. We may aggressively seek a #2 via FA or draft this offseason.


DE- Resign Kelsay then we're set.

DT- Too much has been invested here to draft another 1st rounder. I say rid ourselves of Anderson and pickup a vet DT to help us mainly in the run game.

LB- Agreed. We need to get at least one more solid player here.

CB- Agreed. KT is a solid #3, which gives us time w/ Youboty, but we will need to pickup another potential #1 in the offseason. Shawn Springs, Harper from the Colts, or 1st day draft choice are candidates.

S, K, P - We are set. Lindell just signed a new deal so we can stop talking about him.

I think this should be merged into mine to be honest.

However, Fletchers non-comittal crap may make ILB a priority, guys like Wills or Puz in the 1st or Buster Davis in the 2nd/3rd look like a likely pick.

[SABURZFAN]

I think this should be merged into mine to be honest.




i agree.it'll be one less Just Pathetic thread.

[ShadowHawk7]

Lol, I think I meant to do that, but if the admins can help me out that'd be sweet.

[LifetimeBillsFan]

Good analysis, jp-era!

I agree with you on most points. Here's my take on some of the positions:

Not long ago in an interview that was posted on the BZ front page, Marv Levy indicated that he was unhappy with the Bills run D and would be looking to upgrade there in the off-season. I don't know if it was the same interview or another one that same week, but he also said that it was his belief that you build a teams core through the draft, not through free agency. While you can add depth and role-players--similar to what they did last season--in free agency, he said that, in his view, adding lots of high-priced free agents was not the way to go. At the same time, however, he did say that he would not be averse to adding one or two higher-profile free agents at key positions. Given that Marv has been remarkably candid about his approach to rebuilding the team since taking over, I think that we can be pretty sure that that will be the approach that he is going to take--which is totally consistent with how jp-era laid out things in starting this thread.

Taking Marv at his word, I think that the Bills will make addressing their run defense their first priority this off-season. The Bills have asked K.Williams to add some weight in the off-season, so that tells me that they are keeping him. But, they have said nothing about T.Anderson other than Marv's comments about being unhappy with the DT play in run D--which tells me that Anderson is likely the guy they are looking to replace.

In addition to beefing up the 1-gap DT spot (the Bills are set with Tripplett, McCargo and, if needed, Hargrove at the 3-gap DT spot), IMHO the Bills will probably make improving their LB play a priority this off-season as well. LBs who are fast and agile enough to run to evade blockers and run to the ball are key to stopping the run in their defensive system, which also requires LB who are play-makers to work. Ellison is still raw and may not be a real play-maker, but he has shown the potential to develop into a pretty good LB in this system if he isn't expected to be the unit's main man. After that, though, it gets pretty dicey. Crowell looks like he can be a play-maker in this system, but he will be coming off a season-ending injury and there's no way to know how well he will bounce back. Before his injury Spikes was the kind of play-maker that the Bills really need to have, but he has been a shadow of himself this season and, while it took Seattle's J.Peterson until his second season after recovering from his Achilles injury to regain his Pro Bowl form, there is no guarantee that Spikes will ever get back to being the kind of fast, agile difference-maker that the Bills need and that he used to be. And, then, there is Fletcher-Baker, who has been a terrific leader and has consistently put up gaudy stats, but who is a 31 year old free agent looking for a long-term deal and has far too often made tackles 5-10 yards downfield when he should have been meeting the ball-carrier in the hole at the line of scrimmage. In addition, Josh Stamer will also be returning from a season-ending injury as well. Add all of this up and it is pretty easy to see that, even if they ask C.Wire to put on a little weight and move to OLB permanently, the Bills are pretty thin and have a lot of questions at the LB position.

While I think the Bills would like to keep Fletcher-Baker for his leadership and the reasons jp-era cited, I seriously doubt that the team, which is building around a young core, will want to commit the kind of money and/or contract years that F-B will probably be looking for. In spite of his age, if the Bills don't give F-B what he wants, there will be suitors around the league who proably will--Washington and NE are just two prominent possibilities. And, even if the Bills do re-sign Fletcher-Baker, they still have some big question-marks in Spikes and Crowell and a lack of depth at the position.

As I see it, the Bills may very well look at their need for a 1-gap DT and at LB in much the same way as they looked at the 3-gap DT and SS spots last season: they will try to fill one spot with a reasonably priced, but quality free agent and, then, depending on which spot they are able to fill, use the top of their draft to fill the other spot(s). For example: there are several play-making LBs who could be free agents this year (L.Briggs, A.Thomas, C.June, etc.) and Chicago's Ian Scott has been mentioned as a 1-gap DT that the Bills may be interested in (who may also come at a reasonable price), Rod Coleman is another--the Bills could try to sign the LB that they like most right away and, if the price is too high, immediately make a big offer to the DT of their choice, or vice versa, and then use their first pick in the draft to get a top-flight player for the spot that they weren't able to fill with a free agent.

Either way, I see those two positions as being the ones where they will be most likely to add personnel first.

I also see the Bills making every effort to re-sign C.Kelsay. I know that a lot of Bills fans aren't that high on Kelsay and Denney, but, even though neither one has great individual numbers, together, they have combined for 11 sacks this season to go with Schobel's 14. That's pretty good production from the DE position and, given the way the Bills rotate their players on the D-line, it isn't necessary to have one guy who gets big numbers if you have a tandem that produces good numbers at a position in a combination. Hargrove gives the Bills an alternative to Kelsay, if Kelsay wants to move on, and his presence means that the Bills probably will feel that they could afford to bring in a mid-round developmental project rather than a first day pick if they can't re-sign Kelsay.

I think the Bills will try to re-sign Clements, but that he will want far more than they can or should tie up in him. They drafted Youboty last year anticipating that they would lose Clements and I believe that they fully expect Youboty to be ready to step into the line-up next season as no less than their nickle-back. This is looking like it could be a pretty deep draft at CB, so, while I can see the Bills picking a CB in this draft, with Youboty and Thomas in the fold, I can see them waiting until after they have addressed their need for a 1-gap DT and/or a LB first. If Clements leaves, the Bills will have to add a DB, either as a free agent or through the draft because they will be a little thin at the position, but I would not expect them to draft one before Round 3 unless someone that they really love falls in their lap.

I also believe that the Bills will try to re-sign Gandy and will keep Peters and Pennington as their OTs, with Butler most likely as their back-up. I also agree that Reyes is probably a goner and I think that Villarial will retire. Also, while I'm not a fan, the Bills coaches seem to love Fowler, so I don't see them bringing in a center, especially since Merz and Preston both can play the position. I do, however, see the Bills possibly making a move to upgrade the RG position and definitely adding depth, perhaps a free agent, but more likely in the form of a developmental project, on the offensive line.

With both Merz and Butler getting reps in practice at OG, it's hard to tell whether the Bills feel that one of those guys will end up being good enough to beat out Preston, if he doesn't improve significantly, or if they feel that they will need to go out and get someone with upside who can replace or challenge Preston right away. If they think Merz can be their guy, they can wait until the mid-to-late rounds to add an interior lineman in the draft. If they decide to move Butler inside instead, though, they will need to find an OT, either in free agency or in the middle rounds of the draft, who is good enough to be a back-up who can step into the starting lineup in case of an emergency. Either way, though, with Villarial retired and Reyes likely to be gone, the Bills are so thin on the offensive line that I see them bringing in at least one or two interior lineman and perhaps an OT this off-season--and I expect that at least one of them will be a late round draft pick. However, with their needs on defense, I do not see them taking an offensive lineman on Day One of the draft unless they re-sign Clements and someone that they absolutely love falls in their lap in Round 3.

If the Bills can add a premium free agent LB or 1-gap DT, there is a chance that they might use their 1st Round draft pick to take an offensive play-maker--most likely a big, fast WR (a D.Jarrett, S.Rice, T.Ginn, Jr.). I don't think it will happen, but there are some pretty interesting WRs in this draft and the Bills are likely to be drafting at a spot where one of them could fall into their lap. If that happens and the Bills feel that they can fill their needs at that point without there being too much of a drop off in talent at those positions if they wait a round, it is possible that they may find the opportunity to grab a difference-maker on offense irresistable at that point. Again, I doubt it will happen, but it wouldn't shock me if it did.

With R.Neufeld coming off of an injury and K.Everett looking more and more like a bust, I do see the Bills adding a TE this off-season. However, since I don't really see the kind of outstanding, athletic TEs, like a V.Davis or K.Winslow, that have been in recent drafts coming out in this one, I don't see the Bills using anything more than a mid-to-late round pick on one--most likely a blocking TE. I think the Bills are pretty satisfied with what they got out of R.Royal this year and that they will use him more in the passing game as their offensive line play improves and they don't need to keep him in to help with blocking as much as they did this season.

FB is another position where I definitely see the Bills adding a new player. Not only is Shelton getting older, but it is also pretty obvious that the concussion that he sustained a couple of weeks ago was pretty serious. With all of the collisions that a blocking FB will have during the course of a season the odds of him getting a concussion are pretty high and once a player has had a concussion serious enough for his team to hold him out of a couple of games, as has happened now with Shelton, the chances of him sustaining another serious concussion also increase dramatically. As a result, unless the Bills want to get caught short at the position or intend to convert Cieslak to a FB, it would be in their best interests to see if they can find a FB who is younger and healthier than Shelton and does not have his history of concussions. It's hard to find FBs who are as big as the Bills like their FBs to be coming out of college, so it is likely that, if they do bring in a FB, it will be someone who is a free agent. But, whether through the draft or free agency, I would expect the Bills to try to find someone to replace Shelton at this point if they possibly can.

Beyond that, I think that the Bills are pretty young at most positions and will try to see if the young players that they have will continue to develop and be able to take their play to the next level. Except for the positions that I have mentioned, I think that any additional personnel changes are likely to be minimal. Most of the older players that they had are already gone and have been replaced by really young guys who simply need to continue to improve and learn how to win. Unlike last off-season when the team had so many holes that it seemed like it didn't really matter which ones they addressed first, this off-season I see them aggressively trying to address their most pressing needs--which surprisingly it has turned out are on defense (specifically their run D)--while trying to add depth and developmental talent behind the young players that they have who are still developing and growing into their roles.

The Bills' schedule this year was pretty tough. Next year's schedule looks to be even tougher. Hopefully, the experience will make the Bills' young players better and harder faster and they will be able to learn how to win some of those close games against top competition that they ended up losing this year.

[alohabillsfan]

Here is my take
Offense

Resign Gandy. Agree we need improved RG play most likley draft (3rd) /2nd tier FA.

I believe we will keep the top 4 Wr Evans/Price/Reed/Parrish

We avg. 24 point a game since the bye and JP has been spreading the ball around. What we lack is a consistant running attack and a homerun threat in the backfield. I look for someone like RB Booker FSU.

Defense, now we can say goodbye to Fletcher and Clements I just do not see it happening, I also look for us to compete for 2 LB's in FA, If you go back and look and alot of the runs our LB's are taken out of the play, I look for major upgrades in the LB's. Additionally, we need another DT to replace Anderson most likley draft.

[X-Era]

On Fletch, the more I think about it, the more I see him leaving. I could see us spending our 1sts rounder here. A guy like Willis or Puz could be the instant replacement for Fletch and an upgrade to our run D that we badly need. I t hink much of our troubles against the run come from having smaller, faster DT's and then a small ILB. Not to say its Fletchs fault, but Im saying that without the huge DT's in front of him, having a small ILB can be a liability against the run. It could be that adding a young stud ILB with size is all the fix needed, but more likely we bolster the D-line as well.

As far as FB goes, a guy like Brian Leonhard in the 2nd round makes sense. Right now hes hyped through the roof and has some draft boards saying hes a 1st rounder. I can see him drop to the 2nd and I think thats more likely. Leonhard does it all, he blocks well, and he has the hands, size, speed to b e the next Alstott. He would add another dimension to the run game and another threat on the field.

At TE, we need another player. Royals late surge may have us sticking to the "if it aint broke dont fix it" mentality that we are likely to use as our motto. However, I can see us adding another guy to backup at least and cutting Everett. This draft is pretty pathetic at TE, so mid round guys like Joe Newton, or my late round favorite Dan Bettis (Appalachian St) would be possible.

[shelby]

Lol, I think I meant to do that, but if the admins can help me out that'd be sweet.
Done.
:miyagi:

[SABURZFAN]

Done.
:miyagi:



thank you.that's one less Just Pathetic thread. :bf1:

[The_Philster]

At 34? He can play, but we all got sick of the penalties.

Hes an upgrade to Preston, but Preston will get better, Ruben will get worse.
Ruben wasn't penalized nearly as much as we like to say...Jennings was more a penalty flag magnet

[X-Era]

thank you.that's one less Just Pathetic thread. :bf1:

Sorry, but theres plenty of air marshalls around here to prevent your feable hijack attempts

[X-Era]

Update: 1-1-07, OL- Ralph Wilson comments that they need OL help
Overall- Ralph says the overall talent level isnt good enough