The Bills Draft Position

[Ingtar33]

Alright, well today, scribbling on a pad, I came up with the bills likely draft positions, so we will be able to discuss this, a little better.

There are two scenarios at play, basically one if the Bills lose, one if they win next week.

The tiebreaker in the NFL Draft for teams tied for draft position is strength of schedule.

Interestingly, the Buffalo Bills have one of the hardest strength of schedules in the entire league, and among the teams they could potentially tie in record, they have (currently) and will have (after week17) the hardest strength of schedule, regardless of the results (they had That hard of a schedule)

Thankfully this greatly simplifies the math.

If the Bills lose against Baltimore, they will draft anywhere from 10-16

If the Bills win against Baltimore, they will draft anywhere from 17-21

If the season ended today, they would draft 17th.

For the Bills to draft 10th, they will need to lose, while all of the 6 win teams to lose, and all the 7 win teams to win (which is possible, but extremely unlikely)

For the Bills to draft 22nd, they will need all of the 8 win teams to lose, while they win against Balt (this is the worst case scenario).

**updated due to some confusion over nfl tiebreaker rules: thanks yardrat

[THE END OF ALL DAYS]

some serious mental gymnastics must have been required to figure this out :) good job!

[SABURZFAN]

i'll worry about it on Monday.

[BuffaloBillsStampede]

Thanks a lot I was wondering about this earlier today!

[YardRat]

http://www.draftking.com/nfl/2007/mockdraft.shtml

17. Buffalo Bills - Levi Brown, OT, Penn St.

http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/sub/mockdraft.html

14. Buffalo Bills - JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU

http://www.footballsfuture.com/2007/nflmockdraft.html

15. Buffalo - Justin Blalock, OL, Texas (http://www.footballsfuture.com/2007/prospects/justin_blalock.html)
The Bills hope Blalock doesn’t go down the path Mike Williams did after leaving Texas.

[Marvelous]

I still wanna get a win to carry me the whole offseason. 18-22 is fine by me :)

[SABURZFAN]

14. Buffalo Bills - JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU




:laughter:

[BILLSROCK1212]

:laughter:when this mock came out we were 50-50 on JP it is pretty old

[ublinkwescore]

who the hell makes mock drafts before the midway point in the season???

I'd say even now is a little premature.

Start on it as soon as the regular season is over at the earliest.

[Coach Sal]

Awesome job.

But just an FYI. If the season ended today, the Bills would draft 17th, not 16th.

[Mr. Cynical]

I don't care what people say about this but I completely hope the Bills play a great game but lose on Sunday. The probability of getting a true impact player at 10 is LIGHT YEARS ahead of 22nd, and that will do ALOT more good for the team than winning the last game of a lost season.

[Dozerdog]

...and I'm sure you will ***** and moan about Jauron costing us the game...blah..blah..blah..

[clumping platelets]

FB Brian Leonard, Rutgers :up:

[Lexwhat]

FB Brian Leonard, Rutgers :up:

In the 1st round?

[YardRat]

It's impossible for the Bills to draft any lower than 20, as far as I know. Play-off teams are ranked at the end of the round regardless of record, in order of elimination, and the rest are ranked according to regular season record. Considering there are twelve playoff teams, Buffalo can't fall into the 21st position or beyond.

[RedEyE]

I think the Bills go after a CB since it looks like Nate is going elsewhere. From what I’ve gathered there should be about 5 or 6 CBs pulled in the 1^st round this year. That’s how deep the talent for the position is. I'd like to see them take Hall if they do draft a CB, but anyone of these guys would fit the Bills needs perfectly.
(http://www.footballsfuture.com/2007/prospects/marcus_mccauley.html)<o:p></o:p>
Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno St. (http://www.footballsfuture.com/2007/prospects/marcus_mccauley.html)
<u1:p></u1:p><o:p></o:p>
Darrelle Revis, CB, Pitt (http://www.footballsfuture.com/2007/prospects/darrelle_revis.html)

<o:p></o:p>Leon Hall, CB, Michigan (http://www.footballsfuture.com/2007/prospects/leon_hall.html)
<u1:p></u1:p><o:p></o:p>
Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona (http://www.footballsfuture.com/2007/prospects/antoine_cason.html)
<u1:p></u1:p><o:p></o:p>
Daymeion Hughes, CB, Cal (http://www.footballsfuture.com/2007/prospects/daymeion_hughes.html)<o:p></o:p>

[SABURZFAN]

when this mock came out we were 50-50 on JP it is pretty old



to quote EE,who is this "we?"

[cocamide]

who the hell makes mock drafts before the midway point in the season???

I'd say even now is a little premature.

Start on it as soon as the regular season is over at the earliest.

When your domain name is nfldraftcountdown.com you make mock drafts. Even if JP played horrible throughout the year, there's no way they draft a QB first. What a bullcrap site.

[Ingtar33]

Awesome job.

But just an FYI. If the season ended today, the Bills would draft 17th, not 16th.


you're right. the rest of it was right. i forgot to count the "bills" as i added the 16th note at the end and was lazy, because i wasn't really interested in where they were atm.

They cannot draft 17th, but they currently are 17.

I knew 16 was wrong when i wrote it... i just couldn't figure out why.

[SABURZFAN]

you're right. the rest of it was wrong. i forgot to count the "bills" as i added the 16th note at the end and was lazy, because i wasn't really interested in where they were atm.

They cannot draft 17th, but they currently are 17.

I knew 16 was wrong when i wrote it... i just couldn't figure out why.



bad scouting???? :idunno:

[justasportsfan]

bad scouting???? :idunno:


:shocked:

Wow, SAb is just in a confrontation mood today.

[Ingtar33]

It's impossible for the Bills to draft any lower than 20, as far as I know. Play-off teams are ranked at the end of the round regardless of record, in order of elimination, and the rest are ranked according to regular season record. Considering there are twelve playoff teams, Buffalo can't fall into the 21st position or beyond.

that is only true for the two conference champions (the teams who play in the superbowl)

If the bills win and the 8-7 teams all lose, the Bills will be drafting after two, NFC playoff teams. Hence they can draft 22nd.

[Ingtar33]

shoot. i think I'm wrong in this one.

I can't recall the last time a playoff team fell behind a non-playoff team

you might be right yard-rat. in which case a win on Sunday will land us picks 17-20 (17 comes back into play)

[Ebenezer]

lose...and hopefully draft 10th

[Ingtar33]

alright cleared up the confusion, playoff status is first tie breaker after record, and before strength of schedule

So, if we win and have an 8-8 record...

and the nfc has a 7-9 playoff team, we will draft after the 7-9 playoff team.

However, if the NFC has two 8-8 playoff teams we will draft before them both. So in a way i was half wrong.

so i'll change the draft possition to reflect this. We'll be able to draft anywhere from 17-21.

[Meathead]

just lose baby

[Meathead]

shoot. i think I'm wrong in this one.

string him up! lol

[Mr. Cynical]

lose...and hopefully draft 10th

Funny, I get crap from philster and dozer by saying this and you don't....what are you paying them? :;

[PECKERWOOD]

Funny, I get crap from philster and dozer by saying this and you don't....what are you paying them? :;

My old man wanted us to lose in hopes of a higher draft pick, I had to put some sense into him.. This team needs to learn how to win games and the momentum would carry over for us into next season.

[Mr. Cynical]

My old man wanted us to lose in hopes of a higher draft pick, I had to put some sense into him.. This team needs to learn how to win games and the momentum would carry over for us into next season.

Your old man sounds like a wise old man to me. :D

Sorry but the difference picking 10th vs 22nd far outweighs any momentum derived from a meaningless win.

[Meathead]

i want them to try their best do some good things and just barely lose

maybe getting gashed by the run. that way were already used to it and we get to see losman try to create some magic in a tough road loss

[Dr. Lecter]

I never want the Bills to lose. Never.

Go out and beat the Ravens. It will be huge for the growth of this team to shake off last week's loss and then come out and beat the Ravens. In addition, it could be huge for the continued growth of JP if he does well and the team wins.

[Novacane]

Short term pain long term gain

[Ingtar33]

now that the giants won... the highest we can draft is 20 (we also fell to 16th in the draft)

[Marvelous]

WTF is wrong with you guys wanting us to lose? We'll still get a great pick regardless.. Wouldn't a win make the offseason that much more tolerable??????

[Mr. Cynical]

now that the giants won... the highest we can draft is 20 (we also fell to 16th in the draft)

Just to be a bit more clear - the "lowest" we can draft is 20. :;

The highest I'm still hoping is 10th - could definitely get a playmaker at that spot.

[Night Train]

http://www.draftking.com/nfl/2007/mockdraft.shtml

17. Buffalo Bills - Levi Brown, OT, Penn St.

http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/sub/mockdraft.html

14. Buffalo Bills - JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU

http://www.footballsfuture.com/2007/nflmockdraft.html

15. Buffalo - Justin Blalock, OL, Texas (http://www.footballsfuture.com/2007/prospects/justin_blalock.html)
The Bills hope Blalock doesn’t go down the path Mike Williams did after leaving Texas.

Proving once again how useless mock drafts are.

[alohabillsfan]

Believe it or not winning is far more important then drafting 8 spots higher! Look what happened just a few years ago when we needed to beat the Steelers back-ups to get in the playoffs and lost the next year we came out and sucked! I truley believe that this team is better than that team and we will challenge Baltimore...

Also, if you want free agents that want a chance at winning, then beat Baltimore!

I trust Marv to do the right thing in the draft and FA!

[Novacane]

WTF is wrong with you guys wanting us to lose? We'll still get a great pick regardless.. Wouldn't a win make the offseason that much more tolerable??????


No! If we don't make the playoffs there is no differance between 8-8 and 7-9............................except where we draft. All this stuff about a win developing JP and the team learning to win contributed to this one single game is just a bunch of hot air from message board GMs. Come next training camp I'll bet not a single player will be thinking about what happens today in Baltimore.

[kernowboy]

Drafting higher doesn't always guarantee success. I think a 7-9 season would be on a par of where this team is. I see us going toward DL and LB in the draft as the team will consider Youboty as someone with 1st round capability. I think we will go for specific positions rather than BPA and will look at an NT in Okoye and a LB like Posluzny. We may look to pick up a veteran CB as I cannot see us wanted to start a Rookie CB, and 1 year vets in Whitner and Simpson. This assumes Clements leaving

[Novacane]

Rams win :bf1:

Steelers win :bf1:

Panthers win :bf1:

Seahawks win :bf1:

Bills looking like crap. We're moving on up..............

[Novacane]

Go Packers Go Falcons

[Bills Juggernaut]

So where are we now? 14 or 13?

[Mitchy moo]

Go Packers Go Falcons

17 all fal / philly.

[LifetimeBillsFan]

It looks like the Falcons will lose now.

[Mr. Cynical]

Can we still get 10th?

[LifetimeBillsFan]

Can we still get 10th?



...If the Bills lose against Baltimore, they will draft anywhere from 10-16....

For the Bills to draft 10th, they will need to lose, while all of the 6 win teams to lose, and all the 7 win teams to win (which is possible, but extremely unlikely)....

I don't think all of the scenarios will fall in place--Atlanta lost, but the Bills should be somewhere around 12th. I'm rooting for SF and GB to win now, though.

[Novacane]

looks like 12th or 13th depending on GreenBay.

[Novacane]

I don't think all of the scenarios will fall in place--Atlanta lost, but the Bills should be somewhere around 12th. I'm rooting for SF and GB to win now, though.


Can we get in front of SF if they win?

[Ingtar33]

12 or 13th, depending on the packers. Packers win and it's 12th, they lose and it's 13th.

[Devin]

Not to shabby, i dont care about the draft id have loved a win instead but hey least theres a small silver lining.

[Ingtar33]

we're drafting 12th.

Not bad. actually higher then our 6 and 10 season in 2003.

[Mr. Cynical]

we're drafting 12th.

Not bad. actually higher then our 6 and 10 season in 2003.

And our last 7-9 was in 1994, where we picked Booben at 14th....

[Ebenezer]

And our last 7-9 was in 1994, where we picked Booben at 14th....
knock him if you will but he is an 8 time all pro and could end up in a super bowl this year...our best guard since he left has been..........oh yeah, they've all sucked.