Whitner & Simpson vs Other Rookie Safeties

**Ebenezer** · 01-04-2007, 02:39 AM

Re: Whitner & Simpson vs Other Rookie Safeties

safties getting large numbers of tackles are also indicative of a pourous defensive line...where those tackles occurred are a better guage of performance...and with the number of studs on that Baltimore defense I would say that Landry had the best year.

**jamze132** · 01-04-2007, 07:00 AM

Re: Whitner & Simpson vs Other Rookie Safeties

I don't care where or how they made the tackles, the point is, they MADE the tackles. We do have a good, young tandem back there for a while.

**HHURRICANE** · 01-04-2007, 07:33 AM

Re: Whitner & Simpson vs Other Rookie Safeties

LTBF I could have saved you some typing. Anytime you replace players with better, younger ones than you have done a good job. With those picks we replaced Milloy and Vincent. If anyone watched the 2005 campaign than you remember the missed tackles, etc. from Milloy and Vincent and everyone here was ready for a change. The fact that we did it with 2 rookies is amazing and think about how much better they will be next year with an improved DL!!

Marv had an amazing draft. PERIOD.

**Statman** · 01-04-2007, 07:46 AM

Re: Whitner & Simpson vs Other Rookie Safeties

There are lots of ways to look at this. You first need to see who got what for playing time. Then look at where they were taken. Also, like Eb said, you need to look at their Ds and a bunch of other stuff.

Huff (SS) started 16 games - drafted 1st
Landry (SS) started 15 games - drafted 5th
Manning (FS) started 14 games - drafted 2nd
Bethea (SS) started 14 games - drafted 6th
Watkins (FS) started 9 games - drafted 5th
Considine (SS) started 9 games - UFA
Bullocks (FS) started 7 games - drafted 2nd
Blue (SS) started 2 games - drafted 5th
Eric Smith (SS)started 0 games - drafted 3rd
J Allen (FS)started 0 games - drafted 1st

After watching Sunday's game we could also say that we could have had Ngata and drafted a SS in a later round, say a Landry, Bethea, or Considine. Do you think we'd have been better off with one of them and Ngata or McCargo and Whitner?

The draft is about getting the most value for your draft buck, not about just finding a starter. Each year many, many starters come out of the draft, obviously. But the question in hindsight becomes one of did you do the best that you could do with the resources you had.

You could trade all your draft picks, ala Mike Ditka to get Ricky Williams, for example. Williams turned out to be a very good starter. So can't that be viewed as a great draft then? No you say. Why not? After all he proved himself to be a very good top 10 RB.

Oh, you say it's because of what they gave up to get him? That would be the opportunity cost.

Same thing applies here. I'm not making a judgement one way or the other. But what was more important, stopping the run, or finding a starting safety(ies), neither of which proved that they were great this year also, but both clearly showing that they'll likely be starting for a while, and who knows, may become great.

But let me ask you, assume that both will become top 10 safeties for a moment. If our rushing D never improves, will we have a good D? Seems to me that the Colts defensive backfield isn't bad by any measure. They actually seem pretty good. So why is their D so bad that it will keep them from advancing to a Super Bowl if their secondary is better than most?

**Statman** · 01-04-2007, 07:59 AM

Re: Whitner & Simpson vs Other Rookie Safeties

Originally posted by HHURRICANE

LTBF I could have saved you some typing. Anytime you replace players with better, younger ones than you have done a good job. With those picks we replaced Milloy and Vincent. If anyone watched the 2005 campaign than you remember the missed tackles, etc. from Milloy and Vincent and everyone here was ready for a change. The fact that we did it with 2 rookies is amazing and think about how much better they will be next year with an improved DL!!

Marv had an amazing draft. PERIOD.

He did? What happened to McCargo (1st) and Youboty (3rd)?

So let's say that we had the first overall pick and went with Whitner. Does your argument change?

It shouldn't because you said that "any time you replace players with better, younger ones then you have done a good job."

So if we had had the first pick, and drafted a better player than McGee at CB, or Spikes at LB, or any one of our linemen, or any one of our TEs, or any one of our WRs after Evans, then we would have "done a good job?"

Do you have any ideas how many players drafted qualify for such upgrades? Many.

Using that logic however, which of our players drafted were actually "better players than the ones they replaced" or could have replaced? Whitner and Simpson were the only two. Were Milloy and Vincent playing well? Or did they just both stink because they were too old and just not very good anymore?

In other words, a better player for say Fowler doesn't take much whereas a better player for Evans takes quite a bit.

It's all relative. If you need a "better car" and run out and pay full MSRP for a car and you could have gotten a much better car for a thousand bucks less, then it wasn't the best that you could have done with the resources you had. But you ended up with a better car.

The teams that win in this league are the ones that get the most for the spot they are drafting. Again, I'm not necessarily taking a side in this, but it can easily be argued that foregoing Whitner, taking Ngata, and then drafting one of the ones I mentioned would have pushed this team much further along. As it now stands our rushing defense is worse than it was in 2005.

The only players that we drafted that were better than the starters that they replaced were Whitner and Simpson and that is partly because Milloy and Vincent sucked.

Whitner and Simpson will be fine at those positions. But we won't know whether or not they become impact players there for another season or two. McCargo and Youboty have uphill battles to fight.

**mysticsoto** · 01-04-2007, 08:04 AM

Re: Whitner & Simpson vs Other Rookie Safeties

Originally posted by Statman

There are lots of ways to look at this. You first need to see who got what for playing time. Then look at where they were taken. Also, like Eb said, you need to look at their Ds and a bunch of other stuff.

Huff (SS) started 16 games - drafted 1st
Landry (SS) started 15 games - drafted 5th
Manning (FS) started 14 games - drafted 2nd
Bethea (SS) started 14 games - drafted 6th
Watkins (FS) started 9 games - drafted 5th
Considine (SS) started 9 games - UFA
Bullocks (FS) started 7 games - drafted 2nd
Blue (SS) started 2 games - drafted 5th
Eric Smith (SS)started 0 games - drafted 3rd
J Allen (FS)started 0 games - drafted 1st

After watching Sunday's game we could also say that we could have had Ngata and drafted a SS in a later round, say a Landry, Bethea, or Considine. Do you think we'd have been better off with one of them and Ngata or McCargo and Whitner?

The draft is about getting the most value for your draft buck, not about just finding a starter. Each year many, many starters come out of the draft, obviously. But the question in hindsight becomes one of did you do the best that you could do with the resources you had.

You could trade all your draft picks, ala Mike Ditka to get Ricky Williams, for example. Williams turned out to be a very good starter. So can't that be viewed as a great draft then? No you say. Why not? After all he proved himself to be a very good top 10 RB.

Oh, you say it's because of what they gave up to get him? That would be the opportunity cost.

Same thing applies here. I'm not making a judgement one way or the other. But what was more important, stopping the run, or finding a starting safety(ies), neither of which proved that they were great this year also, but both clearly showing that they'll likely be starting for a while, and who knows, may become great.

But let me ask you, assume that both will become top 10 safeties for a moment. If our rushing D never improves, will we have a good D? Seems to me that the Colts defensive backfield isn't bad by any measure. They actually seem pretty good. So why is their D so bad that it will keep them from advancing to a Super Bowl if their secondary is better than most?

Ngata didn't fit the model that the coaches want to implement. Plain and simple. What good is a defensive scheme if you can't implement it correctly. Keep in mind that McCargo didn't participate much so we don't yet know what he has to offer. Kyle was a rookie and did pretty well for a rookie. Tim Anderson doesn't fit this scheme also, but Marv could only make so much changes at once. We get rid of Tim Anderson and replace him with someone like Okoye who is great at run blocking, and also at pass rushing - making him a great fit for this scheme and then we'll see where our run D is. In the mean time, the big run stuffing Dlinemen is not what you're going to see in Buffalo...so if you are set in those expectations, you will be disappointed for years to come...

**Statman** · 01-04-2007, 08:27 AM

Re: Whitner & Simpson vs Other Rookie Safeties

Originally posted by mysticsoto

Ngata didn't fit the model that the coaches want to implement. Plain and simple. What good is a defensive scheme if you can't implement it correctly. Keep in mind that McCargo didn't participate much so we don't yet know what he has to offer. Kyle was a rookie and did pretty well for a rookie. Tim Anderson doesn't fit this scheme also, but Marv could only make so much changes at once. We get rid of Tim Anderson and replace him with someone like Okoye who is great at run blocking, and also at pass rushing - making him a great fit for this scheme and then we'll see where our run D is. In the mean time, the big run stuffing Dlinemen is not what you're going to see in Buffalo...so if you are set in those expectations, you will be disappointed for years to come...

How many draft picks and cap dollars do you want to spend on DTs this and next year? We can't spend $20M on a DT and draft two more, one in the first or second round each year until we get it right.

Besides, who said that Ngata wouldn't "fit the system?"

McCargo did? Tripplett did? Williams did?

What kind of production did we get from them? Worst in the league.

I suspect that you're being facetious here and sarcastic which is noted. But based on what I saw, Ngata was a helluva lot more "disruptive" than all four of our DTs have been all year combined in that game.

Anyone believing that rot about "not fitting the system" can be sold anything. Again, I yield to your sarcasm, just making the point.

**Statman** · 01-04-2007, 08:28 AM

Re: Whitner & Simpson vs Other Rookie Safeties

And yes, anyone hoping for decent defensive line play during their stay will likely be very disappointed, meaning that as fans we'd better expect more disappointment in that area.

**HHURRICANE** · 01-04-2007, 08:37 AM

Re: Whitner & Simpson vs Other Rookie Safeties

Originally posted by Statman

He did? What happened to McCargo (1st) and Youboty (3rd)?

So let's say that we had the first overall pick and went with Whitner. Does your argument change?

It shouldn't because you said that "any time you replace players with better, younger ones then you have done a good job."

So if we had had the first pick, and drafted a better player than McGee at CB, or Spikes at LB, or any one of our linemen, or any one of our TEs, or any one of our WRs after Evans, then we would have "done a good job?"

Do you have any ideas how many players drafted qualify for such upgrades? Many.

Using that logic however, which of our players drafted were actually "better players than the ones they replaced" or could have replaced? Whitner and Simpson were the only two. Were Milloy and Vincent playing well? Or did they just both stink because they were too old and just not very good anymore?

In other words, a better player for say Fowler doesn't take much whereas a better player for Evans takes quite a bit.

It's all relative. If you need a "better car" and run out and pay full MSRP for a car and you could have gotten a much better car for a thousand bucks less, then it wasn't the best that you could have done with the resources you had. But you ended up with a better car.

The teams that win in this league are the ones that get the most for the spot they are drafting. Again, I'm not necessarily taking a side in this, but it can easily be argued that foregoing Whitner, taking Ngata, and then drafting one of the ones I mentioned would have pushed this team much further along. As it now stands our rushing defense is worse than it was in 2005.

The only players that we drafted that were better than the starters that they replaced were Whitner and Simpson and that is partly because Milloy and Vincent sucked.

Whitner and Simpson will be fine at those positions. But we won't know whether or not they become impact players there for another season or two. McCargo and Youboty have uphill battles to fight.

Alrighty. Is this "if a tree falls in the forest and no one hears it" argument?

All I said was we improved both positions with rookies. Is that not impressive enough for you? Or how about that a (7th round) rookie started the last 8 games at RT and played well? or that a (6th round) rookie stated at WLB? Or that a (5th round) rookie started at RDT?

Yeah, I think Marv had a great draft and I think you are in the lone minority of people that believe he didn't. McCargo getting hurt wasn't Marv's fault and as far as Yobouty were you really expecting every rookie to start? Uhh, there was also a guy named Nate Clements in front of him! Stupid post.

**mysticsoto** · 01-04-2007, 08:52 AM

Re: Whitner & Simpson vs Other Rookie Safeties

Originally posted by Statman

How many draft picks and cap dollars do you want to spend on DTs this and next year? We can't spend $20M on a DT and draft two more, one in the first or second round each year until we get it right.

Besides, who said that Ngata wouldn't "fit the system?"

McCargo did? Tripplett did? Williams did?

What kind of production did we get from them? Worst in the league.

I suspect that you're being facetious here and sarcastic which is noted. But based on what I saw, Ngata was a helluva lot more "disruptive" than all four of our DTs have been all year combined in that game.

Anyone believing that rot about "not fitting the system" can be sold anything. Again, I yield to your sarcasm, just making the point.

I'm not being sarcastic at all. You can implement half a system and half of another system and expect it to work.

You have to keep in mind a couple of things here. Our Dline is supposed to be a penetrating and disruptive type Dline. This they did do. But clearly they got pushed around a bit in the run game. However, look at some of their stats:

Aaron Schobel - 14 sacks, 35 tackles, 18 assists, 3 pass defensed
Larry Tripplett - 2.5 sacks, 19 tackles, 14 assists, 5 pass defensed
Kyle Williams - 0 sacks, 33 tackles, 20 assists, 1 pass defensed
Ryan Denny - 6 sacks, 38 tackles, 16 assists, 4 pass defensed
Chris Kelsay - 5.5 sacks, 41 tackles, 20 assists, 4 pass defensed
Anthony Hargrove - 1.5 sacks, 18 tackles, 6 assists, 0 pass defensed
Tim Anderson - 0 sacks, 20 tackles, 12 assists, 0 pass defensed

Did not play much:

John McCargo - 0 sacks, 5 tackles 1 assist, 1 pass defensed (injured)
Jason Jefferson - 0 sacks, 0 tackles, 2 assists, 0 pass defensed

This actually isn't bad. 30 sacks in total for the rotating Dline isn't bad. So they are good in one area, but need to work in another. Tim Anderson (as is plainly obvious) is the weakest link in this chain. Kyle Williams didn't have any sacks either, but he's a rookie and played well for being one.

Replace Tim with a good DT that can stop the run and continue working on the style of defense they are trying to run, and the Run D should improve.

**mysticsoto** · 01-04-2007, 09:01 AM

Re: Whitner & Simpson vs Other Rookie Safeties

Originally posted by mysticsoto

I'm not being sarcastic at all. You can implement half a system and half of another system and expect it to work.

You have to keep in mind a couple of things here. Our Dline is supposed to be a penetrating and disruptive type Dline. This they did do. But clearly they got pushed around a bit in the run game. However, look at some of their stats:

Aaron Schobel - 14 sacks, 35 tackles, 18 assists, 3 pass defensed
Larry Tripplett - 2.5 sacks, 19 tackles, 14 assists, 5 pass defensed
Kyle Williams - 0 sacks, 33 tackles, 20 assists, 1 pass defensed
Ryan Denny - 6 sacks, 38 tackles, 16 assists, 4 pass defensed
Chris Kelsay - 5.5 sacks, 41 tackles, 20 assists, 4 pass defensed
Anthony Hargrove - 1.5 sacks, 18 tackles, 6 assists, 0 pass defensed
Tim Anderson - 0 sacks, 20 tackles, 12 assists, 0 pass defensed

Did not play much:

John McCargo - 0 sacks, 5 tackles 1 assist, 1 pass defensed (injured)
Jason Jefferson - 0 sacks, 0 tackles, 2 assists, 0 pass defensed

This actually isn't bad. 30 sacks in total for the rotating Dline isn't bad. So they are good in one area, but need to work in another. Tim Anderson (as is plainly obvious) is the weakest link in this chain. Kyle Williams didn't have any sacks either, but he's a rookie and played well for being one.

Replace Tim with a good DT that can stop the run and continue working on the style of defense they are trying to run, and the Run D should improve.

One more thing...I forgot to mention that having a quick, penetrating Dline makes the secondaries' job alot easier. Just look how many interceptions we had:

Clements - 3 interceptions
Whitner - 1 interception
Simpson - 2 interceptions
Ellison - 1 interceptoin
Fletcher - 4 interceptions
Crowell - 2 interceptions

Total: 13

This is just to note that the style of defense implemented pushed for this. And if you change it, these numbers could be affected also.

I am not arguing that we should give up a Run D for this...just saying that we can implement people in the Dline that can be conducive to us keeping these numbers AND stopping the run also. I don't think Ngata was one of those people though.

**Statman** · 01-04-2007, 09:37 AM

Re: Whitner & Simpson vs Other Rookie Safeties

Originally posted by mysticsoto

You have to keep in mind a couple of things here. Our Dline is supposed to be a penetrating and disruptive type Dline. This they did do. But clearly they got pushed around a bit in the run game. However, look at some of their stats:

Aaron Schobel - 14 sacks, 35 tackles, 18 assists, 3 pass defensed
Larry Tripplett - 2.5 sacks, 19 tackles, 14 assists, 5 pass defensed
Kyle Williams - 0 sacks, 33 tackles, 20 assists, 1 pass defensed
Ryan Denny - 6 sacks, 38 tackles, 16 assists, 4 pass defensed
Chris Kelsay - 5.5 sacks, 41 tackles, 20 assists, 4 pass defensed
Anthony Hargrove - 1.5 sacks, 18 tackles, 6 assists, 0 pass defensed
Tim Anderson - 0 sacks, 20 tackles, 12 assists, 0 pass defensed

How much "penetrating" did our DTs do?

Where's the evidence?

Tackles aren't evidence of penetration. Besides, you speak as if just because a DT had some tackles they are good.

Ngata seemed to be getting fine penetration on Sunday along with Kelly Gregg. Neither "fits the system" according to Levy or Jauron.

Any fast DT capable of penetrating "fits the system" where you need a fast penetrator. Limiting that to smallish DTs is foolish.

If you thought our defensive tackles were good, then I simply don't know what to say.

As to Hurricane's comments that I'm in a lone minority that thinks our draft wasn't as good as he seems to believe it is, it's completely the opposite. Our draft, or our free agency for that matter, didn't produce one single impact player this season. For definition of impact player see Mangold on the Jets for instance. Or DeMeco Ryans in Houston.

Also, as to Hurricane's statements, if Pennington was so good at RT then how come McGahee had his worst rushing average running behind him? Ellison was nothing special and neither was Kyle Williams who also didn't log a single sack.

I see that Hurricane can't be convinced however.

**Statman** · 01-04-2007, 09:43 AM

Re: Whitner & Simpson vs Other Rookie Safeties

Originally posted by mysticsoto

One more thing...I forgot to mention that having a quick, penetrating Dline makes the secondaries' job alot easier. Just look how many interceptions we had:

Clements - 3 interceptions
Whitner - 1 interception
Simpson - 2 interceptions
Ellison - 1 interceptoin
Fletcher - 4 interceptions
Crowell - 2 interceptions

Total: 13

This is just to note that the style of defense implemented pushed for this. And if you change it, these numbers could be affected also.

I am not arguing that we should give up a Run D for this...just saying that we can implement people in the Dline that can be conducive to us keeping these numbers AND stopping the run also. I don't think Ngata was one of those people though.

I'll say this about that, that with interceptions you must look at how they occurred. Most of our interceptions this season, and rewatch them if you don't believe me, were merely very bad throws with the QBs not under any kind of particular pressure. Take this last game for instance. Fletcher made an INT but the ball was thrown right to him. McNair wasn't under pressure. Check it to see for yourself. So how much credit do we want to give Fletcher for simply catching a ball thrown right at him and five yards behind and wide of the receiver?

As to your comments on Ngata, he seems to have done a fine job of exactly that in Baltimore this year. So I have no idea what you are basing your comments there on. Maybe just wishful thinking, but it's an uphill argument to suggest that if Ngata were on our team playing in a similar style, although not scheme, then all of a sudden he would make no impact.

Also, at 6'4"/340, isn't it quite possible that he's equally or faster than someone 6'0"/300 (Kyle Williams)?

**Statman** · 01-04-2007, 09:45 AM

Re: Whitner & Simpson vs Other Rookie Safeties

Also, let me ask you, on Fletcher's INT play on Sunday, what happens if McNair throws the ball over his WR? Did you see anyone immediately there to make a defense or an immediate tackle since Fletcher was in front of him? I didn't. So perhaps we should simply count our blessings that McNair threw that one so horribly.

I'm not trying to take anything from London for reading it right, but let's call it what it really is and not start fantasizing about what it wasn't.

Whitner & Simpson vs Other Rookie Safeties

Whitner & Simpson vs Other Rookie Safeties

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