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I think we are starting to stray away from what we are likely to do again in at least the first round of the draft. Im just as guilty as some of you are.
Id like to look at this based on what Darv (Dick and Marv) are likely to feel we need. Us fans may feel we need x,y, or z but we have no say. Since you cant draft what isnt there, and since most front offices have some decent sense of what players should go where, and we can draw a pretty decent conclusion on what we think Darv will think we need, I think we can draw some early conclusions. But, its VERY early and this is likely to change with FA, the prospect bowl games, combine, and workouts.
We KNOW we pick 12th.
Heres a current and fairly realistic take on where the top 32 rank (Scouts Inc, ESPN):
Now, based on this early projection some things become clear for Darv.
Many would say we need OL. I agree, but we should note that there isnt a single OG, or C listed in the top 32, that would make selecting one highly unlikely.
At OT, I dont see anyway Darv will believe we need to spend our 1st rounder on a LT. Dick moved Peters to the spot, hes signed long term, and he played well there. We have other needs, LT is a lower priority. The 3 names listed are LT prospects. Its much more frequent that teams draft LT's in the 1st round than RT's. Pennington is a Darv guy and Dick started him at the bye. I could easily see us giving him a chance and not starting some new guy. At the very least, I think we feel other positions are more important than this one. Add in the fact that the prospects projected in this list are LT's not RT's, and It would seem unlikely that we draft an OT in the 1st.
So, I think OL help from the 1st round is pretty unlikely.
I think many of us fans also feel that losing Flecther and/or Clements would move those positions to the top of the priority list. I can see Darv agreeing, but in both positions Darv has drafted, kept, and played players. Does that mean we will think we are all set? maybe, but probably not. I could see us looking at LB and/or CB in the 1st.
LB- Pozlusny and Willis dont even make it into the top 32, I think both will end up being in the top 25, so either could be an option at 12 for us.
CB- Hall, Wright, Revis, McCauley, Hughes all could be possibilities if Clements is gone. I think when all is said and done your looking mainly at Hall, McCauley who will rise with fast 40 times, and Hughes.
At DL, I think Darv sees what we see, that we cant stop the run. McCargo will be back, but due to rotation it still may not be enough. At DE, we may lose Kelsay and we cant exactly call Kelsay a stud. Our Tampa 2 scheme uses lots of rushing, I could see Darv looking at a pass rush DE.
DT- Branch is the big name, he may drop, he may not. At 6' 6" 300+ with LB type speed, I could see us thinking hes a solution to our running game problems. Okoye, Dorsey, Tyler are all possibilities.
DE- Adams is the big name but may not drop to 12, I think he wont make it past the top 5. Moses, Crowder is a possibility
Outside of CB, we drafted and started two rookie S's. I just cant see anyway that Darv goes after yet another one in the 1st.
At QB, Darv has spoken pretty clearly. I think our guys are honest when they talk about being on the rise, having our starter for next year, and having a foundation for the future. I just cant see us taking a QB.
At WR, we can argue we need another very good player opposite Lee. Fairchild came from the STL camp that put up gaudy numbers with Bruce, Kennison, Holt, Hakim, etc... Our #2 is still up in the air but Peerless was a Darv hire. He made some late plays. Reed made plays but sparingly as did Parrish. I could see Fairchild arguing for better talent here, Darv may give in but it may be unlikely. I wwould love to see it personally, but when I put all this on paper it seems a bit unrealistic. Ginn Jr., or Jarrett may get us to bite and go this route but I think its STILL unlikely.
At RB, at the very least we have a average starter. However, we also have a guy whos agent is verbal about the contract, Willis has shown a me attitude, hes coming into a contract year, hes had questionable actions on and off the field. Furthermore, his production was down this year. Could Darv make a move in a whole new direction? Well, maybe. I could see them looking at it and feeling they need a backup plan if Willis holds out, or leaves in FA. I could see them wanting to head in a new direction with fresh legs and a more Darv type attitude. Willis wasnt there guy either. Id say the likelihood is still short of sure fire, but I think the chances are better than maybe the WR possibilty and maybe as much as 50/50 depending on whos there. Peterson will not escape the top 5, IMO. Marshawn Lynch is a name to watch. Its possible for him to drop, hes a complete RB, and I cant find any off the field problems. ON the field, he shows tough fight, and constant productivity.
At TE and FB I think Zack Miller TE is the only guy who gets the 1st round grade. Darv could go this route if he became TE worthy, but thats not likely. I think the possibility is there, but its probably not even as likely as a RB which is far from a sure thing. And thats only if Miller earns a 12 ranking.
Now, if you add all this up, I think we can head down a path to some projections for us. If you look whos where based on this list, and you analyze the situation Dick and Marv are looking at, some things rise to the top:
At 12 I think Adams and Peterson are gone so Darv would stack the board like this:
1) Alan Branch
2) Leon Hall
3) Marshawn Lynch
4) Ginn Jr.- Im putting Ginn and Jarrett up here based on value at the pick and "some" need
5) Jarrett
6) Posluzny
7) Willis
8) Okoye
9) Moses
10) Revis
11) Woodley
12) McCauley
13) Hughes
14) Carriker
Yes, I can see that Ginn Jr. and Jarrett are not enough of a need to go above say a Pozlusny. But, I think if you can argue that either adds a whole bunch of production to your team and could make a bigger impact than Poz, it may happen. I really want to go conservative and move them down the list more, but either is so damn good, and we really could use another threat opposite Evans. I just think Darv will think long and hard if either is there.
Id like to look at this based on what Darv (Dick and Marv) are likely to feel we need. Us fans may feel we need x,y, or z but we have no say. Since you cant draft what isnt there, and since most front offices have some decent sense of what players should go where, and we can draw a pretty decent conclusion on what we think Darv will think we need, I think we can draw some early conclusions. But, its VERY early and this is likely to change with FA, the prospect bowl games, combine, and workouts.
We KNOW we pick 12th.
Heres a current and fairly realistic take on where the top 32 rank (Scouts Inc, ESPN):
| 1. Joe Thomas | Sr. | OT | Wisconsin |
| 2. Calvin Johnson | Jr. | WR | Georgia Tech |
| 3. Alan Branch | Jr. | DT | Michigan |
| 4. Brady Quinn | Sr. | QB | Notre Dame |
| 5. Gaines Adams | Sr. | DE | Clemson |
| 6. Adrian Peterson | Jr. | RB | Oklahoma |
| 7. JaMarcus Russell | Jr. | QB | LSU |
| 8. Glenn Dorsey | Jr. | DT | LSU |
| 9. Leon Hall | Sr. | CB | Michigan |
| 10. Marshawn Lynch | Jr. | RB | Cal |
| 11. LaRon Landry | Sr. | S | LSU |
| 12. Amobi Okoye | Sr. | DT | Louisville |
| 13. Brian Brohm | Jr. | QB | Louisville |
| 14. Ted Ginn Jr. | Jr. | WR | Ohio State |
| 15. Adam Carriker | Sr. | DE | Nebraska |
| 16. DeMarcus Tyler | Sr. | DT | N.C. State |
| 17. Jeff Samardzija | Sr. | WR | Notre Dame |
| 18. Sidney Rice | Jr. | WR | S. Carolina |
| 19. Levi Brown | Sr. | OT | Penn State |
| 20. Eric Wright | Jr. | CB | UNLV |
| 21. Dwayne Jarrett | Jr. | WR | USC |
| 22. Darrelle Revis | Jr. | CB | Pittsburgh |
| 23. Tony Ugoh | Sr. | OT | Arkansas |
| 24. Tim Crowder | Sr. | DE | Texas |
| 25. LaMarr Woodley | Sr. | OLB | Michigan |
| 26. Marcus McCauley | Sr. | CB | Fresno State |
| 27. Quentin Moses | Sr. | DE | Georgia |
| 28. Troy Smith | Sr. | QB | Ohio State |
| 29. Daymeion Hughes | Sr. | CB | Cal |
| 30. Anthony Spencer | Sr. | DE | Purdue |
| 31. Kenny Irons | Sr. | RB | Auburn |
| 32. Dwayne Bowe | Sr. | WR | LSU |
Now, based on this early projection some things become clear for Darv.
Many would say we need OL. I agree, but we should note that there isnt a single OG, or C listed in the top 32, that would make selecting one highly unlikely.
At OT, I dont see anyway Darv will believe we need to spend our 1st rounder on a LT. Dick moved Peters to the spot, hes signed long term, and he played well there. We have other needs, LT is a lower priority. The 3 names listed are LT prospects. Its much more frequent that teams draft LT's in the 1st round than RT's. Pennington is a Darv guy and Dick started him at the bye. I could easily see us giving him a chance and not starting some new guy. At the very least, I think we feel other positions are more important than this one. Add in the fact that the prospects projected in this list are LT's not RT's, and It would seem unlikely that we draft an OT in the 1st.
So, I think OL help from the 1st round is pretty unlikely.
I think many of us fans also feel that losing Flecther and/or Clements would move those positions to the top of the priority list. I can see Darv agreeing, but in both positions Darv has drafted, kept, and played players. Does that mean we will think we are all set? maybe, but probably not. I could see us looking at LB and/or CB in the 1st.
LB- Pozlusny and Willis dont even make it into the top 32, I think both will end up being in the top 25, so either could be an option at 12 for us.
CB- Hall, Wright, Revis, McCauley, Hughes all could be possibilities if Clements is gone. I think when all is said and done your looking mainly at Hall, McCauley who will rise with fast 40 times, and Hughes.
At DL, I think Darv sees what we see, that we cant stop the run. McCargo will be back, but due to rotation it still may not be enough. At DE, we may lose Kelsay and we cant exactly call Kelsay a stud. Our Tampa 2 scheme uses lots of rushing, I could see Darv looking at a pass rush DE.
DT- Branch is the big name, he may drop, he may not. At 6' 6" 300+ with LB type speed, I could see us thinking hes a solution to our running game problems. Okoye, Dorsey, Tyler are all possibilities.
DE- Adams is the big name but may not drop to 12, I think he wont make it past the top 5. Moses, Crowder is a possibility
Outside of CB, we drafted and started two rookie S's. I just cant see anyway that Darv goes after yet another one in the 1st.
At QB, Darv has spoken pretty clearly. I think our guys are honest when they talk about being on the rise, having our starter for next year, and having a foundation for the future. I just cant see us taking a QB.
At WR, we can argue we need another very good player opposite Lee. Fairchild came from the STL camp that put up gaudy numbers with Bruce, Kennison, Holt, Hakim, etc... Our #2 is still up in the air but Peerless was a Darv hire. He made some late plays. Reed made plays but sparingly as did Parrish. I could see Fairchild arguing for better talent here, Darv may give in but it may be unlikely. I wwould love to see it personally, but when I put all this on paper it seems a bit unrealistic. Ginn Jr., or Jarrett may get us to bite and go this route but I think its STILL unlikely.
At RB, at the very least we have a average starter. However, we also have a guy whos agent is verbal about the contract, Willis has shown a me attitude, hes coming into a contract year, hes had questionable actions on and off the field. Furthermore, his production was down this year. Could Darv make a move in a whole new direction? Well, maybe. I could see them looking at it and feeling they need a backup plan if Willis holds out, or leaves in FA. I could see them wanting to head in a new direction with fresh legs and a more Darv type attitude. Willis wasnt there guy either. Id say the likelihood is still short of sure fire, but I think the chances are better than maybe the WR possibilty and maybe as much as 50/50 depending on whos there. Peterson will not escape the top 5, IMO. Marshawn Lynch is a name to watch. Its possible for him to drop, hes a complete RB, and I cant find any off the field problems. ON the field, he shows tough fight, and constant productivity.
At TE and FB I think Zack Miller TE is the only guy who gets the 1st round grade. Darv could go this route if he became TE worthy, but thats not likely. I think the possibility is there, but its probably not even as likely as a RB which is far from a sure thing. And thats only if Miller earns a 12 ranking.
Now, if you add all this up, I think we can head down a path to some projections for us. If you look whos where based on this list, and you analyze the situation Dick and Marv are looking at, some things rise to the top:
At 12 I think Adams and Peterson are gone so Darv would stack the board like this:
1) Alan Branch
2) Leon Hall
3) Marshawn Lynch
4) Ginn Jr.- Im putting Ginn and Jarrett up here based on value at the pick and "some" need
5) Jarrett
6) Posluzny
7) Willis
8) Okoye
9) Moses
10) Revis
11) Woodley
12) McCauley
13) Hughes
14) Carriker
Yes, I can see that Ginn Jr. and Jarrett are not enough of a need to go above say a Pozlusny. But, I think if you can argue that either adds a whole bunch of production to your team and could make a bigger impact than Poz, it may happen. I really want to go conservative and move them down the list more, but either is so damn good, and we really could use another threat opposite Evans. I just think Darv will think long and hard if either is there.
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