Progression in addressing priorities

[Yasgur's Farm]

There are so many people arguing about what position to take in round 1... Few are able to wrap their arms around the progression of the offseason.

IMO, our top 4 priorities are O-line, D-line, LB, CB...
1) What priority gets the round 1 pick?
2) Will that pick exceed the immediate impact of an upper end free agent?
3) Will that pick even surpass who we currently have as a starter?

Now... go through the priority progression...
What priority gets round 2... round 3... round 4?
Do you see where I'm going with this?

Generally draft picks (most time even 1st rounders) grow into starters. The Bills are behind the game as far as talent level goes... So they can't just go the draft route and wait for them to develop. They have to bring in some upper end free agents to address their most pressing needs, because that's where they are gonna get the greatest immediate impact.

Therefore, chooches like myself are calling for our top 4 priorities to be addressed via free agency. (BTW... IMO #2 WR is priority #5 because we have a great #1 and a stable full of good #3's... But no true #2).

I think we address (to the best of our ability) priorities 1 through 4 in free agency. Then we look to fill priorities #5 WR and #6 TE and #7 depth/future starters.

Obviously a plan needs to be dynamic because sometimes you just can't run with the dogs when it comes time to bid for certain players... And you can't force players to sign.

Here's how I see it...
Free agency begins before the draft (beginning of March vs end of April). I'm looking to go after players on the market that best address my priorities.

2 months later comes the draft...
1) What priorities did I eliminate to date via free agency?
2) How do the draft rankings line up with where we select?
3) Am I gonna reach for need or am I gonna draft best player available?
4) Can I trade up... down?

[ShadowHawk7]

Good analysis. I'm in agreement here for the lines at least. I think they can be bolstered immediately the best if we go the FA route.

[T-Long]

Great analysis as well. You read my mind. Good work.

[Stewie]

Sounds good in theory, but where are all these great FA's going to come from?

We'll be lucky to sign two quality free agents that can step in and start at a higher level than whomever they replaced.

[Saratoga Slim]

Sounds good in theory, but where are all these great FA's going to come from?

We'll be lucky to sign two quality free agents that can step in and start at a higher level than whomever they replaced.

Yeah, I said exactly the same in another thread somewhere around here. I'll be happy if we pick up one major upgrade at RG, DT, MLB, TE/WR2 or possibly CB, and then add a few depth players. I'll be thrilled if we grab two top-flite guys.

But I don't see making more than two major FA signings this offseason. There just isn't that deep a pool, and a lot of teams want the same guys we do. Which is OK, because chalk two players off the shopping list above, and we can cover the remaining through the first three rounds of the draft.

[raphael120]

There are so many people arguing about what position to take in round 1... Few are able to wrap their arms around the progression of the offseason.

IMO, our top 4 priorities are O-line, D-line, LB, CB...
1) What priority gets the round 1 pick?
2) Will that pick exceed the immediate impact of an upper end free agent?
3) Will that pick even surpass who we currently have as a starter?

Now... go through the priority progression...
What priority gets round 2... round 3... round 4?
Do you see where I'm going with this?

Generally draft picks (most time even 1st rounders) grow into starters. The Bills are behind the game as far as talent level goes... So they can't just go the draft route and wait for them to develop. They have to bring in some upper end free agents to address their most pressing needs, because that's where they are gonna get the greatest immediate impact.

Therefore, chooches like myself are calling for our top 4 priorities to be addressed via free agency. (BTW... IMO #2 WR is priority #5 because we have a great #1 and a stable full of good #3's... But no true #2).

I think we address (to the best of our ability) priorities 1 through 4 in free agency. Then we look to fill priorities #5 WR and #6 TE and #7 depth/future starters.

Obviously a plan needs to be dynamic because sometimes you just can't run with the dogs when it comes time to bid for certain players... And you can't force players to sign.

Here's how I see it...
Free agency begins before the draft (beginning of March vs end of April). I'm looking to go after players on the market that best address my priorities.

2 months later comes the draft...
1) What priorities did I eliminate to date via free agency?
2) How do the draft rankings line up with where we select?
3) Am I gonna reach for need or am I gonna draft best player available?
4) Can I trade up... down?


thing is, we all know how cheap ralph is at throwing money at FA's.

this being said, he is going to go the bargain bin route like he did last season and try to polish a turd, as they say.

now let's see the options:

draft the players and have good upside

or

sign these FA's and hope that because you bring them here they all of a sudden "get it" in the NFL and perform better than they did being 3rd string in the CFL.

Fact of the matter is, our draft players had more of an impact than our FA aquisitions. Can you name one FA that had more of an impact than any of our draftees did? I sure can't.

Kyle Williams played just as impactful as Triplett, maybe even more.

Royal made more bumble-***** moves than good.

Nall? Hows that pine under your butt feel?

Bowen. Nice poetry during training camp.

Melvin Fowler, dude can play chess. Plays on the Oline. So did Pennington, and they both were pretty much unheard of, which is good, but both allowed the same number of sacks I believe.

All the other FA's are now second strings, 3rd strings...

We made more starters from our draftees than the FA pool, that's all I'm saying...I dont see many holes being filled in Free Agency...

[Yasgur's Farm]

thing is, we all know how cheap ralph is at throwing money at FA's.

this being said, he is going to go the bargain bin route like he did last season and try to polish a turd, as they say.

now let's see the options:

draft the players and have good upside

or

sign these FA's and hope that because you bring them here they all of a sudden "get it" in the NFL and perform better than they did being 3rd string in the CFL.

Fact of the matter is, our draft players had more of an impact than our FA aquisitions. Can you name one FA that had more of an impact than any of our draftees did? I sure can't.

Kyle Williams played just as impactful as Triplett, maybe even more.

Royal made more bumble-***** moves than good.

Nall? Hows that pine under your butt feel?

Bowen. Nice poetry during training camp.

Melvin Fowler, dude can play chess. Plays on the Oline. So did Pennington, and they both were pretty much unheard of, which is good, but both allowed the same number of sacks I believe.

All the other FA's are now second strings, 3rd strings...

We made more starters from our draftees than the FA pool, that's all I'm saying...I dont see many holes being filled in Free Agency...That's a crap argument. You act as though we'd be worse off if we persued upper end free agents to fill our most pressing needs.

Wouldn't it be great to be able to address our 5th priority at round 1 knowing that 1 through 4 have been handled? And don't give me this psychic network crap that it won't happen.

[Stewie]

If we get 4 starters signed in FA, I will eat my zonebucks.

[Philagape]

thing is, we all know how cheap ralph is at throwing money at FA's.

this being said, he is going to go the bargain bin route like he did last season and try to polish a turd, as they say.

now let's see the options:

draft the players and have good upside

or

sign these FA's and hope that because you bring them here they all of a sudden "get it" in the NFL and perform better than they did being 3rd string in the CFL.

Fact of the matter is, our draft players had more of an impact than our FA aquisitions. Can you name one FA that had more of an impact than any of our draftees did? I sure can't.

Kyle Williams played just as impactful as Triplett, maybe even more.

Royal made more bumble-***** moves than good.

Nall? Hows that pine under your butt feel?

Bowen. Nice poetry during training camp.

Melvin Fowler, dude can play chess. Plays on the Oline. So did Pennington, and they both were pretty much unheard of, which is good, but both allowed the same number of sacks I believe.

All the other FA's are now second strings, 3rd strings...

We made more starters from our draftees than the FA pool, that's all I'm saying...I dont see many holes being filled in Free Agency...


Last year, with new systems on both sides of the ball, we needed quantity more than quality. We needed veterans to fill a lot of holes.

This year, we have fewer holes to fill and we can actually upgrade some positions. The definition of our needs has changed, from quantity toward quality. This is the time to go for fewer but more significant signings.

[Marvelous]

Sounds good in theory, but where are all these great FA's going to come from?

We'll be lucky to sign two quality free agents that can step in and start at a higher level than whomever they replaced.

That's by NO MEANS saying much PaulB...I don't think any knowledgable Bills fan expects us to get a CB &/or MLB better than Clements & Fletcher.. It's obvious we are not and/or can't...

But we need to get all starters through FA. A rookie starter leaves us to wide open..Kinda like our safeties..Sure they we're good, but our secondary suffered from the lack of experience... MLB is hands down a position we should get FA. There's a handful of MLB's coming off their rookie contracts who could be solid starters.. I recall seeing a LB FA list a while back & was impressed... A 1st round CB is imo useless this year to us.. We shoulda started to think ahead last year or hell,,the yearbefore...We all knew Clements was gonna play hard ball with contractextension..So why didn't we address it then :confused: McGee is no way any answer as a #1 CB.. I love McGee but lets be real....... IMO O-line and the interior D line is our 1st round priority.. Or RB..I have -0- faith in McGahee or his abilities... But i think RB isn't as important in the 1st as DT or Guard, or RT...Is Pennington our new RT>? LG is a major hole. Duke Preston is servicable for when Villariel gets hurt...

[kernowboy]

I think we need to look at the following

1 - what players will actually be available in Free Agency that are in a position of need? There is no point in signing old Vets on the downside of their careers to big contracts, as all this may do is regress the progress of our young players

2 - Its not about money. Exactly what have Snyder and the Redskins achieved. A better approach would be the Patriots, working out a system and then bringing in players that fit that system, even if they are backups or have failed elsewhere, even if they have been out of football a year. I never see the Patriots overpaying ... so Wilson has every right to want his money spent WISELY. And who's to say the UFA will come to Buffalo anyway?

3 - when we consider the draft, the Patriots spend a lot of decently high picks on the trenches - Warren/Wilfork/Seymour on the DL, and Light/Mankins/Kaczur on the OL .... they draft TEs high Graham/Watson/Thomas, don't overpay for the WRs and often look to FA. Occasionally they make a more for a skills player - Maroney/Jackson - but in recent times this has been the exception not the rule

So if we consider what we actually need ....

RG - Gandy was adequate at LG and will be better next year as he has been moved to his natural position. Villarial has nothing left in the tank so we need to look here as I feel Preston should be moved back to center to provide a bigger option to Fowler and Merz is too raw. Pennington is coming along and may still face a threat from Butler. We can look at DIEHL or DIELMAN as young veteran pickups here.
DT - Anderson isn't the answer .. but there are only the ranks of the aging in FA here or the chronically underachieving. Unless we pick up someone like Johnathan Sullivan and miraculously turn his career round, we need to look high again in the draft - OKOYE or DORSEY
LB - its pretty obvious London is on his way. TKO may never justify his salary again. There are some banner names here like Briggs and June but will they cost too much for what they offer, and fail to thrive when they loose their partners in crime (Urlacher)? What has been an unfortunate trend is that young UFA starters and backups with upside like Henderson and Wilhelm have been taken off the market by their teams. Here we need to look at the draft again with POSLUZNY or WILLIS and then maybe a Day2 pick like ZAK DeOSSIE.
TE/FB - Shelton must be on his way out. With that in mind we could go to the double TE set with the signing of DAN GRAHAM or another marque TE FA. Having invested lots in both Reed and Price, I see this as maybe the way we will look to get a big receiving option rather than a WR
DB - Having got a steal with Youboty last year when carried a R1 grade, I see them giving him an opportunity before using a Day1 pick again. I can see the signing of a Veteran though. Possibly vets still with upside may include Ahmad Carroll and Mike Rumph outside of the big2 (Clement and Samuel) and we could certainly coach a significant improve from either.
RB - Willis. We may look to max McGahee's trade value now. I say we sign TJ Duckett, resign A-Train and after the draft trade McGahee to whoever needs a RB. We get an exchange a high Day1 pick for the 2008 season that we can use in that RB rich draft. A-Train/TJ can easily hold the fort.
QB - I can also see us looking at improving the backup QB situation. What is the point of Holcomb anymore?

Of course we'd all like a star in every position but what we really need to get to the SuperBowl is decent hardworking vets and rookies in each position.

I for one would be happy to have a Free Agency of a big RG, and support for the TE, QB, CB, RB and if we are very lucky LB positions and in the draft on Day1 players on both lines and the LB.

If we signed, Kris Dielman (OG-Chargers) Dan Graham (TE-Patriots), Pat Ramsay (backup QB-Jets) Mike Rumph (CB/S-Redskins), TJ Duckett (RB-Redskins) and one of the following LB, Boss Bailey (Lions) or Caleb Miller (Bengals) then that would suit me

In the draft I'd like to see Polsuzny or Willis, Dorsey or Okoye, an OL who can cover LT in an emergency better than Gandy like Doug Free or Mike Otto, a big WR who may have slipped (Brandom Myles, Rhema McNight), a 2nd LB maybe from a small school or Ivy League (Justin Durrant, DeOssie) and the BPA in the 7th.

[ShadowHawk7]

Great post above.

[Yasgur's Farm]

I think we need to look at the following

1 - what players will actually be available in Free Agency that are in a position of need? There is no point in signing old Vets on the downside of their careers to big contracts, as all this may do is regress the progress of our young players

2 - Its not about money. Exactly what have Snyder and the Redskins achieved. A better approach would be the Patriots, working out a system and then bringing in players that fit that system, even if they are backups or have failed elsewhere, even if they have been out of football a year. I never see the Patriots overpaying ... so Wilson has every right to want his money spent WISELY. And who's to say the UFA will come to Buffalo anyway?

3 - when we consider the draft, the Patriots spend a lot of decently high picks on the trenches - Warren/Wilfork/Seymour on the DL, and Light/Mankins/Kaczur on the OL .... they draft TEs high Graham/Watson/Thomas, don't overpay for the WRs and often look to FA. Occasionally they make a more for a skills player - Maroney/Jackson - but in recent times this has been the exception not the rule

So if we consider what we actually need ....

RG - Gandy was adequate at LG and will be better next year as he has been moved to his natural position. Villarial has nothing left in the tank so we need to look here as I feel Preston should be moved back to center to provide a bigger option to Fowler and Merz is too raw. Pennington is coming along and may still face a threat from Butler. We can look at DIEHL or DIELMAN as young veteran pickups here. Agree... The focus should be on strengthening the RG position and obtaining future starters. Look for a 3rd round interior guy to be brought into the mix as well. Peters - Gandy - Fowler - FA - Pennington.
DT - Anderson isn't the answer .. but there are only the ranks of the aging in FA here or the chronically underachieving. Unless we pick up someone like Johnathan Sullivan and miraculously turn his career round, we need to look high again in the draft - OKOYE or DORSEY Sorry... I'm not with you here. I feel the real problem lies with lack of experience at this position coupled with poor gap filling by our LB's. Inexperience has upside. Our LB group doesn't. True, Anderson isn't the answer. But the investment in Triplett coupled with the drafting of McCargo and Williams begs to have an experienced vet brought in to cement this unit and buy time while we assemble our LB's. I think maybe another 4th round DT here wouldn't be out of the question.
LB - its pretty obvious London is on his way. TKO may never justify his salary again. There are some banner names here like Briggs and June but will they cost too much for what they offer, and fail to thrive when they loose their partners in crime (Urlacher)? What has been an unfortunate trend is that young UFA starters and backups with upside like Henderson and Wilhelm have been taken off the market by their teams. Here we need to look at the draft again with POSLUZNY or WILLIS and then maybe a Day2 pick like ZAK DeOSSIE. We need 2 starters here. I see no profit in adding more inexperience to our run stoppers. Therefore I would prefer any 2 of Briggs, Thomas or June. But I'll be happy with 1 of them coupled with round 2 (See CB). I just don't think the value is there for a round 1 LB. I could see Schobel being utilized as a LB as well at times. At 256 pounds, he would shore up run support as well as continue as a pass rushing threat... The sacrafice would be in pass coverage.
TE/FB - Shelton must be on his way out. With that in mind we could go to the double TE set with the signing of DAN GRAHAM or another marque TE FA. Having invested lots in both Reed and Price, I see this as maybe the way we will look to get a big receiving option rather than a WR. I'm in favor of Graham or Johnson to be paired with Royal. But I don't think they would fill the need for a true #2 WR. Furthermore I see either Ceislak and/or Neufeld filling our FB needs while Everett may have run the course. Maybe we invest a 6th round pick at TE.
DB - Having got a steal with Youboty last year when carried a R1 grade, I see them giving him an opportunity before using a Day1 pick again. I can see the signing of a Veteran though. Possibly vets still with upside may include Ahmad Carroll and Mike Rumph outside of the big2 (Clement and Samuel) and we could certainly coach a significant improve from either. The way I see it... Clements is gone. I want Samuel. If we can't have Samuel we need to resign Thomas or another equivalent FA and draft another in round 2 (depending on the LB thing). This coupled with Youboty should be sufficient.
RB - Willis. We may look to max McGahee's trade value now. I say we sign TJ Duckett, resign A-Train and after the draft trade McGahee to whoever needs a RB. We get an exchange a high Day1 pick for the 2008 season that we can use in that RB rich draft. A-Train/TJ can easily hold the fort. Agreed... McGahee... Trade him... I'm finished with him. I like your moves but I'd also like to look into what Josh Reed may have to offer here... Especially if I get my wish at #1.
QB - I can also see us looking at improving the backup QB situation. What is the point of Holcomb anymore? Round 7.

Of course we'd all like a star in every position but what we really need to get to the SuperBowl is decent hardworking vets and rookies in each position.

I for one would be happy to have a Free Agency of a big RG, and support for the TE, QB, CB, RB and if we are very lucky LB positions and in the draft on Day1 players on both lines and the LB.

If we signed, Kris Dielman (OG-Chargers) Dan Graham (TE-Patriots), Pat Ramsay (backup QB-Jets) Mike Rumph (CB/S-Redskins), TJ Duckett (RB-Redskins) and one of the following LB, Boss Bailey (Lions) or Caleb Miller (Bengals) then that would suit me

In the draft I'd like to see Polsuzny or Willis, Dorsey or Okoye, an OL who can cover LT in an emergency better than Gandy like Doug Free or Mike Otto, a big WR who may have slipped (Brandom Myles, Rhema McNight), a 2nd LB maybe from a small school or Ivy League (Justin Durrant, DeOssie) and the BPA in the 7th.

[kernowboy]

I think Marv and Dick will have begun to formulate who they need and where they can get them.

My concern is there is barely anything available in FA that would represent an upgrade over Anderson.


At LB everyone seems to be focusing on 3 players. I think Briggs thrives because he is teamed with Urlacher. Unless we know how to sign him, I am concerned he may be a FA let done. June plays for one of the worst run defences and has serious off-field issues. Thomas is a pass rusher and again benefits enormously from being alongside Lewis.

If we were to sign LBs I'd be more inclined to go down the route of Boss Bailey or Corey Miller.

I favour upgrading the lines and the LB corps through the draft in 2007.

We are not in a position to be making a SuperBowl run next year. But come the draft in 2008 we will be in a position to be looking for a RB and a big WR in the first 2 rounds