My 2007 Offseason

[DraftBoy]

2007 Offseason:

Resign:
WR Andre Davis-Good ST player, will be the only reason he sticks around
DE Anthony Hargrove-Played inside and outside and made a visible difference
CB Jabari Greer-ST and depth player
CB Kiwaukee Thomas-Played well when given time
S Coy Wire-ST gunner, and showed surprisingly good depth

Cut:
QB Kelly Holcolmb-Do I need a reason?

Sign:
RB Musa Smith-Power runner, could be a good Brandon Jacobs
WR Mike Furrey-Came on strong at the end of the year could be an ideal Don Beebe type
TE Daniel Graham-Would be my #1 priority FA this offseason
TE Visanthe Shiancoe-Would only be picked up if we fail to get Graham
OG David Diehl-Ideal OG for our road grading O, shouldnt be overly expensive with most high cap teams concentrated on Steinbach
OL Cosey Coleman-Versatile player who could do for us what Gandy did but better
CB Ricky Manning Jr-Could be a starter for us oppositte Mcgee
LB Boss Bailey-Will push Spikes, or start if we move Crowell inside
LB EJ Henderson-Could be an impact MLB with his quick lateral movement


Draft:
1. DE Jamaal Anderson-Arkansas
Ultra Quick DE who has the size to be a dominant pass rusher in this league for years to come. Led SEC with 13.5 sacks and finished 2nd in the SEC with 19.5 tackles for loss. Would be a great compliment to Schoebel who is weak against the run.

2. LB Brandon Siler-Florida
Incredible quickness and has a nose for the football. Had 77 tackles for the national champs and was one of the leaders for the Gators this season.

3. CB Eric Wright-UNLV
Good speed CB who has the uncanny ability to be able to locate the ball already in air. He is younger and has little experience but yet has shown flashes in limited time. Also a returner

4. RB Lorenzo Booker-FSU
One word can potentially describe Booker-Gamebreaker. Anybody who has followed his career knows that this kid can take the ball to the house on any play. He is special and his career has been marred by injuries and a putrid FSU offense.

6. QB Chris Leak-Florida
Everybody saw what he can on the national stage against Ohio State but unless he comes up big at the combine and senior bowl he still may be sitting here and he would be a steal this late. Ideal 2-3 year backup and could challenge JP in a few years or be used as trade bait ala Matt Schaub.

7. WR Matt Trannon-Michigan State-Everybody is calling him this years Marques Colston, Im not going to annoint him anything, other than a versatile player with great size, good speed, and catches the ball at its highest point. He also goes over the middle.

Analysis:
I think our team is pretty solid overall, I think we need to increase the pass rush to make the Cover 2 more effective, while also beefing up our LB corp. Adding Bailey, Henderson, and Siler to our current crop we would be dominate and also be deep. We will need it also because our CB's are going to take a hit with losing Nate, so Ko and Donte have to step it up. I think our OL was solid near the end of the year and I dont want to mess with that too much other than Diehl for a new starting guard. Furrey could be an amazing under the radar pickup for us, should we get a shot.

So now it begs the question; Is this realistic?

I think so, none of the picks need to fall a ton or are big reaches and all the FA's are within our price range, will we sign that many? I doubt it, but who knows with Levy in year 2.

[YardRat]

I like the re-signings and cutting Holcomb, but think the FA list is too ambitious...if we get half of those guys I'd be pretty happy.

I find it interesting that you went against conventional wisdom (at least as far as these boards are concerned) and stayed away from the DT position. Was that intentional?

[DraftBoy]

I like the re-signings and cutting Holcomb, but think the FA list is too ambitious...if we get half of those guys I'd be pretty happy.

I find it interesting that you went against conventional wisdom (at least as far as these boards are concerned) and stayed away from the DT position. Was that intentional?


Very much so, we spent big money on Tripplett last year and I thought he played rather well, while some may disagree. We also spent a 3rd and 1st last year on McCargo who was mostly hurt and I dont see us using two 1sts on DT's. Kyle Williams was a beast for us last year and Hargrove can move inside if need be. We may pickup an extra one but I was pretty happy with our DT's. I was one who didnt think the middle was the problem of our Run D, I thought it was our ends.

I agree the FA may have been too ambitous but its more realistic then saying we'll sign Clements, Steinbach, June, Graham, and all the other top end FA's.

No thoughts on the draft picks?

[YardRat]

I'll defer to your opinion on the draft, DB...you're a helluva lot more knowledgeable than I am at that.

[BILLSROCK1212]

dude if half of that happened it would be sickk!!!!!

[DraftBoy]

dude if half of that happened it would be sickk!!!!!


Still wouldnt make us a playoff team imo, but itd be a great step fwd.

[BILLSROCK1212]

Still wouldnt make us a playoff team imo, but itd be a great step fwd.
a huge step forward!!!!

[mysticsoto]

Very much so, we spent big money on Tripplett last year and I thought he played rather well, while some may disagree. We also spent a 3rd and 1st last year on McCargo who was mostly hurt and I dont see us using two 1sts on DT's. Kyle Williams was a beast for us last year and Hargrove can move inside if need be. We may pickup an extra one but I was pretty happy with our DT's. I was one who didnt think the middle was the problem of our Run D, I thought it was our ends.

I agree the FA may have been too ambitous but its more realistic then saying we'll sign Clements, Steinbach, June, Graham, and all the other top end FA's.

No thoughts on the draft picks?

Well, I have to say I disagree with you, I thought our DTs were much more the problem than the DEs were. I think it is much more critical to get another DT to replace Tim Anderson on the 1-gap side. While Kelsay/Denney were merely average, they did decently well between both of them. Given that, I'd still let Kelsay go and move Hargrove to play DE which is his natural position instead of DT.

B'cse of this, I like Okoye in the 1st rd.

I would also re-sign A-Train - which you neglected to mention in your post and I would cut Coy Wire. Matt Bown should be our depth at S and maybe another lower round pick with speed (Roderick Rogers maybe ?).

If we sign someone like EJ Henderson, our need for LB diminishes though I'd still might want to pick one reasonably high as backup just in case we have more injuries, or in case TKO just never recovers...

[DraftBoy]

Well, I have to say I disagree with you, I thought our DTs were much more the problem than the DEs were. I think it is much more critical to get another DT to replace Tim Anderson on the 1-gap side. While Kelsay/Denney were merely average, they did decently well between both of them. Given that, I'd still let Kelsay go and move Hargrove to play DE which is his natural position instead of DT.

B'cse of this, I like Okoye in the 1st rd.

I would also re-sign A-Train - which you neglected to mention in your post and I would cut Coy Wire. Matt Bown should be our depth at S and maybe another lower round pick with speed (Roderick Rogers maybe ?).

If we sign someone like EJ Henderson, our need for LB diminishes though I'd still might want to pick one reasonably high as backup just in case we have more injuries, or in case TKO just never recovers...


I made a post in one the game threads counting how many times we got run on inside and outside and what the avg per carry was, and it was obvious we were getting burned much more to the outside than the inside. A new DT will do nothing to help that, we have nobody capable of playing the run on our DE's. Aaron is horrible at it, and the others arent worth mentioning.

I wouldnt resign Atrain...what did he do for us? He had a couple of ok games? Id rather draft a scat back and sign a cheaper short yardage back.

Wire is a FA, so he doesnt need to be resigned but he is a key ST'er and played well when given a shot this year. Im all for signing Henderson then picking Siler up in round 2.

[mysticsoto]

I made a post in one the game threads counting how many times we got run on inside and outside and what the avg per carry was, and it was obvious we were getting burned much more to the outside than the inside. A new DT will do nothing to help that, we have nobody capable of playing the run on our DE's. Aaron is horrible at it, and the others arent worth mentioning.

I wouldnt resign Atrain...what did he do for us? He had a couple of ok games? Id rather draft a scat back and sign a cheaper short yardage back.

Wire is a FA, so he doesnt need to be resigned but he is a key ST'er and played well when given a shot this year. Im all for signing Henderson then picking Siler up in round 2.

Was this a particular game or throughout the season? I seem to have it engraved in my mind that it was much more up the middle. Sadly, I didn't keep any of the games to go back and watch, but I remember getting burned much more up the middle...

The A-Train is a good backup - he's not starting material, but he's a good N/S runner and...didn't he get us a 100 yd game when Willis went out? I think he is fine and if we want a scat back we should be using Shaud - which we never do. I think Jauron prefers a strong, power runner as a backup.

Wire is a liability for a team that needs speed. He therefore cannot play S and even as a LB, he will not be able to keep up with TEs - his coverage skills are atrocious anyway. His STs play had been good, but last year his name was hardly pronounced on ST, and Andre Davis was the one making plays. With roster spots being important, we can't keep 3 players on board strictly for STs. One of Aiken, Davis or Wire will need to go and if it's up to me, I choose Wire - although Aiken is very close to the edge also!

[PECKERWOOD]

I really like the Booker pick the most, he shows alot of potential but he can be taken later in the draft which is a plus. Nothing against Anderson but I don't think DE is atop of our priorities. I would rather trade down and take Posz or Willis in the 1st rather than Siler in the 2nd..

[BILLSROCK1212]

I really like the Booker pick the most, he shows alot of potential but he can be taken later in the draft which is a plus. Nothing against Anderson but I don't think DE is atop of our priorities. I would rather trade down and take Posz or Willis in the 1st rather than Siler in the 2nd..12th pick is a bit early for Willis and Puz right now but it can all change by draft day

[PECKERWOOD]

12th pick is a bit early for Willis and Puz right now but it can all change by draft day

Yeah, like I said; I think we should trade down and take one of them.

[BILLSROCK1212]

Yeah, like I said; I think we should trade down and take one of them.yea that would be nice id definetly do that but i honestly would prefer us taking Brandon Siler in the 2nd round

[ParanoidAndroid]

Trading down to get a playmaker like Willis or Posluszny would be amazing. It makes loads of sense since we need as many picks as we can get.

[EDS]

1. I think Anderson goes before the 12th pick, almost definitely top 10.

2. I think it would be scary having both starting corner backs under 5'9".

3. I still think DT is a huge need. The Bills need a DT who can occupy two blockers to free up the MLB and DE's to make plays. If Branch is still on the board I think this would be a no-brainer pick. Since the Bills have already committed to 3 undersized DTs (Williams, Triplett and McCargo) it is essential that they have a proper 4 man rotation so that these guys can play fresh and at full speed. I hope McCargo can come in next year and be near to Triplett's equal. A Branch or Okoye then could split times with Williams, who is a solid rotation player, but not a dominator - so it is important to keep him fresh since he relies on his motor to make plays. If there was anyone available in free agency I would not have a problem going that route but there isn't, so the draft is the logical place to go to fill these need.

4. Furrey had almost 1,000 yards so I think he will be more expensive then you think. Detroit definitely will want him back. I also think Musa Smith will cost more as a back-up then A-Train, though I do think he is an upgrade so would be quite happy with the move.

5. Diehl would be great, but I think I think the front office and coaching staff like Gandy and will resign him to play left guard (so no Coleman). Right guard is definitely the weakest link on the o-line at present. To me, this is the most important position to fill on the offense this off-season.

6. I would love to see the team sign all those linebackers, but I think it is unrealistic. Henderson has had back issues so I would not sign him without a back-up plan (you have Siler so that is covered). Bailey never seems to make it through a season unscathed either, but he still has some intriguing talent. He might be expensive as a result. I would not be surprised if the Bills moved either Crowell or Spikes into the middle. If they could sign Bailey and draft Siler that would be huge (starters would be some combination of TKO, Crowell and Bailey with Siler and Ellison as reserves), but I am not sure that will happen.

7. Graham would be great, but after shelling out some bucks to Royale I don't think they do the same for a similar, albeit much better, player.

This should be an interesting off-season, so many teams have large amounts of money to spend that some people will get stupid contracts. The Bills front office will have to be smart about the signings they do make while at the same time making sure they fill the many holes that are left on the roster.

[ParanoidAndroid]

Furrey ended up with 98 catches, 1086 yards. Talk about out of nowhere!

"Good morning, Mr. Mike Williams? This is your wake up call."

I agree about the FA situation this year. Hopefully, Marv will go after a couple of difference makers and fill the rest of the holes through the draft.
Dockery, Diehl, or Dielman at guard and Graham at TE would be a start. This would allow us to go fill the defense with more young, fast talent via the draft.

[DraftBoy]

Was this a particular game or throughout the season? I seem to have it engraved in my mind that it was much more up the middle. Sadly, I didn't keep any of the games to go back and watch, but I remember getting burned much more up the middle...

The A-Train is a good backup - he's not starting material, but he's a good N/S runner and...didn't he get us a 100 yd game when Willis went out? I think he is fine and if we want a scat back we should be using Shaud - which we never do. I think Jauron prefers a strong, power runner as a backup.

Wire is a liability for a team that needs speed. He therefore cannot play S and even as a LB, he will not be able to keep up with TEs - his coverage skills are atrocious anyway. His STs play had been good, but last year his name was hardly pronounced on ST, and Andre Davis was the one making plays. With roster spots being important, we can't keep 3 players on board strictly for STs. One of Aiken, Davis or Wire will need to go and if it's up to me, I choose Wire - although Aiken is very close to the edge also!


Ill get back to you on the top part...

I dont mind A-train, I really dont but his 3.5 ypc is somewhat bothersome for a supposed power back. As opposed to Musa who avg 4.3 ypc. Smith has never even been a consistent backup plan in his career so I dont think he would be anymore expensive than A-train. Shaud is not a scat back, he is a slippery back. He is not overly fast, like a true scat back and has never been overly effective.

Wire is a ST demon, which is the most unhearalded part of our unit and a key to any success we will have. He had 23 total tackles almost all of which were on ST.

[DraftBoy]

I really like the Booker pick the most, he shows alot of potential but he can be taken later in the draft which is a plus. Nothing against Anderson but I don't think DE is atop of our priorities. I would rather trade down and take Posz or Willis in the 1st rather than Siler in the 2nd..


Anytime you have to justify a pick by saying to trade down it makes sense there are problems. It is impossible to perdict trades in the NFL Draft. Hell I could assume we will take CJ bc it makes sense for us to trade up to get him, bc we were only two wins away, so obviously we lack some offensive options.

[DraftBoy]

1. I think Anderson goes before the 12th pick, almost definitely top 10.

2. I think it would be scary having both starting corner backs under 5'9".

3. I still think DT is a huge need. The Bills need a DT who can occupy two blockers to free up the MLB and DE's to make plays. If Branch is still on the board I think this would be a no-brainer pick. Since the Bills have already committed to 3 undersized DTs (Williams, Triplett and McCargo) it is essential that they have a proper 4 man rotation so that these guys can play fresh and at full speed. I hope McCargo can come in next year and be near to Triplett's equal. A Branch or Okoye then could split times with Williams, who is a solid rotation player, but not a dominator - so it is important to keep him fresh since he relies on his motor to make plays. If there was anyone available in free agency I would not have a problem going that route but there isn't, so the draft is the logical place to go to fill these need.

4. Furrey had almost 1,000 yards so I think he will be more expensive then you think. Detroit definitely will want him back. I also think Musa Smith will cost more as a back-up then A-Train, though I do think he is an upgrade so would be quite happy with the move.

5. Diehl would be great, but I think I think the front office and coaching staff like Gandy and will resign him to play left guard (so no Coleman). Right guard is definitely the weakest link on the o-line at present. To me, this is the most important position to fill on the offense this off-season.

6. I would love to see the team sign all those linebackers, but I think it is unrealistic. Henderson has had back issues so I would not sign him without a back-up plan (you have Siler so that is covered). Bailey never seems to make it through a season unscathed either, but he still has some intriguing talent. He might be expensive as a result. I would not be surprised if the Bills moved either Crowell or Spikes into the middle. If they could sign Bailey and draft Siler that would be huge (starters would be some combination of TKO, Crowell and Bailey with Siler and Ellison as reserves), but I am not sure that will happen.

7. Graham would be great, but after shelling out some bucks to Royale I don't think they do the same for a similar, albeit much better, player.

This should be an interesting off-season, so many teams have large amounts of money to spend that some people will get stupid contracts. The Bills front office will have to be smart about the signings they do make while at the same time making sure they fill the many holes that are left on the roster.


1. He's alot of hype right now and till we see the combine results it will really be speculation

2. I agree

3. How about we draft a MLB who excels at shedding blockers and one who fits our D scheme then taking DT's who dont fit the scheme. When are we going to realize we are not going to be seen taking your 300+ two gap DT's. It wont happen with Dick and Co. here.

4. Furrey will cost some money, but he will be cheap when you look at him in comparison to the #'s the Steinbach's and June's will get. Also he is the top under the radar FA imo, and if he doesnt resign with Detroit prior to FA period we should have the cap room and the ability to bring him in. I never said it would be cheap.

5. I agree, Gandy or Coleman its not a huge difference, I just think Gandy may want starting money for being what I would perceive to be a backup.

6. I dont think signging Henderson and Bailey is unrealistic. I dont know that signing both is neccessary, unless we plan on cutting/trading Spikes. Signing one, drafting Siler would be ideal.

7. We'll have to see how quick Levy is to see he made a mistake in the TE department.

Good points on all accounts though, this offseason and draft should be one of the most interesting in our recent history.

[EDS]

I know the perception is that 300+ lb defensive tackles do not fit our scheme, but I am still not sold on the defensive scheme. Tampa Bay was so successful using it mostly because they had at least one (Sapp), and at times two (Bugger) pro bowl caliber defensive tackles. The Bears also have at least one pro bowl caliber defensive tackle (Harris). Indy, for all their success, still is vulnerable to the run and that has prevented them from getting to the super bowl. They do not have a pro bowl caliber defensive tackle.

So until the Bills get a pro bowl caliber defensive tackle, or until they demonstrate they can stop the run consistently, I think they need to invest in a defensive tackle that has the potential to be dominant.

[DraftBoy]

I know the perception is that 300+ lb defensive tackles do not fit our scheme, but I am still not sold on the defensive scheme. Tampa Bay was so successful using it mostly because they had at least one (Sapp), and at times two (Bugger) pro bowl caliber defensive tackles. The Bears also have at least one pro bowl caliber defensive tackle (Harris). Indy, for all their success, still is vulnerable to the run and that has prevented them from getting to the super bowl. They do not have a pro bowl caliber defensive tackle.

So until the Bills get a pro bowl caliber defensive tackle, or until they demonstrate they can stop the run consistently, I think they need to invest in a defensive tackle that has the potential to be dominant.


This is not the tampa 2, this is the cover 2. The tampa 2 is a different system than ours. Fewell runs a pure cover 2. And Tommie Harris is a freak of nature he is probably the quickest 300+ man alive.

I agree we need a dominant DT but we may have that in McCargo, or Williams. We dont know yet, are we going to burn 1 1st rounder by taking another, or are we really willing to invest that much more money in that posistion? Two 1st rounders and an over payed FA is alot of cap swallowed up by 3 DTs.

[EDS]

This is not the tampa 2, this is the cover 2. The tampa 2 is a different system than ours. Fewell runs a pure cover 2. And Tommie Harris is a freak of nature he is probably the quickest 300+ man alive.

I agree we need a dominant DT but we may have that in McCargo, or Williams. We dont know yet, are we going to burn 1 1st rounder by taking another, or are we really willing to invest that much more money in that posistion? Two 1st rounders and an over payed FA is alot of cap swallowed up by 3 DTs.

If it takes a freak of nature type of defensive tackle to make this defense tick then it makes drafting a DT early even more of a priority.

Is there a really good defense in the NFL - regardless of system - that does not have very good defensive tackles? The Pats have invested multiple first rounders on DTs and the results speak for themselves. Ravens have two monsters in the middle, the Vikings run defense has the two Williams', Jacksonville has Stroud and Henderson, San Diego has Williams and Castillo, Bears have Harris and company, etc.

I doubt Williams will ever be considered a dominant DT, solid probably, but not dominant. McCargo is a complete question mark so I do not see drafting another as any type of indictment. Plus, McCargo is Triplett's back-up - which leaves the otherside of the line with Williams and nobody. There is a huge, huge need to fill that hole so that Williams and the other DTs get adequate rest and in the event of an injury.

[Night Train]

If it takes a freak of nature type of defensive tackle to make this defense tick then it makes drafting a DT early even more of a priority.

Is there a really good defense in the NFL - regardless of system - that does not have very good defensive tackles? The Pats have invested multiple first rounders on DTs and the results speak for themselves. Ravens have two monsters in the middle, the Vikings run defense has the two Williams', Jacksonville has Stroud and Henderson, San Diego has Williams and Castillo, Bears have Harris and company, etc.

I doubt Williams will ever be considered a dominant DT, solid probably, but not dominant. McCargo is a complete question mark so I do not see drafting another as any type of indictment. Plus, McCargo is Triplett's back-up - which leaves the otherside of the line with Williams and nobody. There is a huge, huge need to fill that hole so that Williams and the other DTs get adequate rest and in the event of an injury.

Agreed. I have recently heard Fewell himself state we need to get bigger at the 1 gap DT spot and find a run stuffer at MLB, if Fletcher leaves. I wouldn't mind an upgrade to the DE spot where Denney is . Kelsay is a UFA and seems like a good backup at best.
That's the problem. We have too many good situational/role type players and not enough dynamic playmakers at these various positions.

There is a reason for our putrid Run D. Sticking our heads in the sand and praising mediocrity doesn't cut it. Changes are coming with new faces, so get used to it.

[DraftBoy]

Agreed. I have recently heard Fewell himself state we need to get bigger at the 1 gap DT spot and find a run stuffer at MLB, if Fletcher leaves. I wouldn't mind an upgrade to the DE spot where Denney is . Kelsay is a UFA and seems like a good backup at best.
That's the problem. We have too many good situational/role type players and not enough dynamic playmakers at these various positions.

There is a reason for our putrid Run D. Sticking our heads in the sand and praising mediocrity doesn't cut it. Changes are coming with new faces, so get used to it.

One under the radar DT we may wanna look at is Terrel Sands from Oakland, he is a monster at 6'6 335, but it light on his feet. Never been a starter but has improved every year. Also at DE Justin Smith may get free from the Bengals. He'd cost a bundle but he'd be a good investment.