Forked Thread: My 2007 Offseason

[DraftBoy]

Forked from: My 2007 Offseason

Was this a particular game or throughout the season? I seem to have it engraved in my mind that it was much more up the middle. Sadly, I didn't keep any of the games to go back and watch, but I remember getting burned much more up the middle...

I told Mysticsoto intially that Id get back to him about this part of his post, and I have, it just took me some time to do the work. Let me explain whats going on here. We all agree that our run defense last season was nowhere near where it needed to be, we gave up a total of 2071 yards on 328 carries for an avg of 6.3 ypc. However the debate is where are we weak on our run defense, many posters claim that our smallish DT's cause us most of the issues and we need to beef up the middle, and many suggest drafting a DT like Amobi Okoye to fill that role. Now we all know the cover 2 is not a D to have lard asses in the middle for, its for blocker shedding MLB's. Which Fletcher is but he's gotten older and is less effective, esp with Takeo being nowhere near 100% this season.

I however contend that our DE's are one of the reasons we suck at run D so much. I think Schoebel is putrid v. the run, and the other side isnt even worthy of mentioning when it comes to run defense. Now I advicate taking an all around DE in Jamaal Anderson with our 1st pick should he be there.

Now there is yet another contingent who clamor for a Patrick Willis or Paul Pols pick with our 1st, but in my opinion we have no need to take a LB at this point considering how deep the LB class is, and I think the best MLB in the class is Brandon Siler and he should be there come our 2nd round pick. This class is extremely thin on run stuffing DT's and also on all around DE's.

So now to my findings...

What I did was that I went to NFL.com and clicked on the full play by play for every game we played last season and compiled a list of every running play against us and how far it went for and if it went inside or outside. To clarify if the play said up the middle or at the guard, I considered it inside. If it said off the tackle, or to the end I considered it outside. I did not include QB scrambles in my compilation. Here is the breakdown;

Week 1:
I-85 yards, 5.6 ypc
O-85 yards, 4.3 ypc

Week 2:
I-39, 3.9 ypc
O-40, 5.0 ypc

Week 3:
I-38, 2.7 ypc
O-20, 3.3 ypc

Week 4:
I-23, 2.6 ypc
O-28, 5.6 ypc

Week 5:
I-96, 5.1 ypc
O-65, 3.8 ypc

Week 6:
I-17, 3.4 ypc
O-129, 6.1 ypc

Week 7:
I-31, 1.9 ypc
O-62, 6.2 ypc

Week 9:
I-98, 7.0 ypc
O-51, 3.6 ypc

Week 10:
I-57, 4.75 ypc
O-88, 6.3 ypc

Week 11:
I-61, 4.7 ypc
O-96, 10.7 ypc

Week 12:
I-99, 5.8 ypc
O-70, 5.4 ypc

Week 13:
I-118, 5.6 ypc
O-80, 6.7 ypc

Week 14:
I-68, 3.6 ypc
O-39, 5.5 ypc

Week 15:
I-66, 3.8 ypc
O-36, 3.6 ypc

Week 16:
I-85, 4.4 ypc
O-135, 9.6 ypc

Week 17:
I-50, 2.7 ypc
O-52, 7.4 ypc

TOTAL:
Inside-1031, 4.2 ypc
Outside-1040, 5.8 ypc

So in conclusion the numbers clearly show that while both areas are weak, we are signifigantly weaker against outside running which says to me that our ends are not making the play move back to the middle, but yet allowing for the back to spring it outside and turn the corner. Of course there are more factors than just our DE's in outside running, and more factors than our DT's in Inside runnings, but the fact is that we are worse against outside running teams and I think an all around DE makes much more sense, imo.

[Dr. Lecter]

Re: Forked Thread: My 2007 Offseason

I don't if I would say significantly weaker. I don't know the numbers, but I would speculate that runs to the outside average higher around the NFL than runs up the middle.

Regadless, this is some damn good work.

We also need to remember that some of the outside runs probably started up the middle and bounced to the outside, which is more of a LB/contain problem.

And you are corect about Schobel; hsi run defense is sub-standard when is run at. I would also be interested to see runs to the right and left to be compared to see which side was worse. (Not advocating more work for you)

I also what happened with Denney; he used to be solid against the run aand poor as a pass rusher, now it is reverse.

[mysticsoto]

Re: Forked Thread: My 2007 Offseason

Wow, DB, that was alot of work to do, I'm sure. Thank you for your effort.

Still, I'm not sure if that paints the whole picture. I mean you can't go by ypc b'cse quite frankly, that may depend on what happens at the 2nd level that is outside the Dline effort.

What you did show me, however, is that we are bad both inside and out...and I'd say it is pretty close. Let's also keep another thing in mind. When you have a 1-gap DT that doesn't command a double team, you end up freeing an Olineman to pull to the outside or move into the 2nd level inside and help block for a runner. Those things need to be taken into consideration.

Out of those 1031 runs to the inside and 1040 to the outside, it would certainly be needed to be looked at more closely what caused each run? Dlinemen out of position? Extra Olineman coming in to help block due to 1-gap DT being handled? FB handling Dlineman, etc.

Also, again, to fully analyze to the situation...you would need to explore...why are they running inside on each play? Could it be that the outside was cut off and the DE forced it inside? Or is it the reverse? Did the DT penetrate forcing the run to move outside, etc.

I commend you for the work that you did, but the picture is alot more complex and I'm afraid the boys at 1 Bills Drive will have to watch the tape several times to get the whole picture.

In either case, I doubt Jamaal Anderson may even be there at #12. nfldraftcountdown.com has him going at #7. If he's gone...do you still advocate grabbing the next DE? Or does that change your mind?

[DraftBoy]

Re: Forked Thread: My 2007 Offseason

Wow, DB, that was alot of work to do, I'm sure. Thank you for your effort.

Still, I'm not sure if that paints the whole picture. I mean you can't go by ypc b'cse quite frankly, that may depend on what happens at the 2nd level that is outside the Dline effort.

What you did show me, however, is that we are bad both inside and out...and I'd say it is pretty close. Let's also keep another thing in mind. When you have a 1-gap DT that doesn't command a double team, you end up freeing an Olineman to pull to the outside or move into the 2nd level inside and help block for a runner. Those things need to be taken into consideration.

Out of those 1031 runs to the inside and 1040 to the outside, it would certainly be needed to be looked at more closely what caused each run? Dlinemen out of position? Extra Olineman coming in to help block due to 1-gap DT being handled? FB handling Dlineman, etc.

Also, again, to fully analyze to the situation...you would need to explore...why are they running inside on each play? Could it be that the outside was cut off and the DE forced it inside? Or is it the reverse? Did the DT penetrate forcing the run to move outside, etc.

I commend you for the work that you did, but the picture is alot more complex and I'm afraid the boys at 1 Bills Drive will have to watch the tape several times to get the whole picture.

In either case, I doubt Jamaal Anderson may even be there at #12. nfldraftcountdown.com has him going at #7. If he's gone...do you still advocate grabbing the next DE? Or does that change your mind?

A 1.6 difference in ypc is extremely signifigant when you consider that football is a game of inches.

If Anderson is gone as well as Adams which may happen, then I do not advocate taking the next DE. Okoye isnt a bad pick if those two are gone, but I also would like to get Jarrett if he falls to us. Willis isnt even a horrible pick. I think we need to go D, or if Jarrett falls take him. DT, DE, LB, CB are all needs and I think the BPA at those posistions should be the pick. But if it comes down to Anderson or Okoye, I think the choice is a clear one.

Another good DE would be Charles Johnson from UGA in round 2.

[YardRat]

Re: Forked Thread: My 2007 Offseason

Nice analysis DB. That's a helluva lot of work.

I agree with you in the sense that I don't think DT is going to be a high priority this off-season, unless somebody too good to resist drops in their lap. I still maintain, though, that to a certain point the weakness against the run was more of a philosophy issue than personnel issue, and the T2 was run in a manner more to protect the rookie safeties against the pass first, run second and that will be corrected by experience.

It would be interesting to see how the inside-outside comparison between yards, attempts, and average per rush compares with some other teams in the league.