1st Round Projections

[Don't Panic]

It seems a lot of specualtion on who we are going to take in the 1st round has been spilling into other threads, so I thought I'd try to centralize it a bit. After looking at mocks (albeit early ones) for at least 12 hours, I feel there are some clear cut directions we may take with the #12 pick. I was hoping you all wouldn't mind contributing your thoughts as well. Based on need, and not considering what we do in free agency, I'd say our top 5 stacks up like this:

1. Branch, DT Michigan
2. Jarrett, WR USC

Many feel those two will be gone, so here is where it gets interesting...

3. Willis, LB Ole Miss
4. Brown, OT Penn St. (still not convinced the Bills brass is 100% about Pennington)
5. Pozluszny, LB Penn St.
Wild Cards: Peterson, RB Okla and Lynch, RB Cal (Depends on the McGahee situation)

To be honest, I'd be happy with any of these top 5. Each offers a distinct improvement at a position of weakness. The RBs would only be looked at if we trade McGahee for a pick, something I doubt we do. Ginn and Tyler are quality players but both are a reach at #12. Of course, this is all subject to change with free agency.

[Kerr]

PWillis is versatile and could start right away. I think he could be the pick.

[DraftBoy]

1. Jaamal Anderson
2. Alan Branch
3. Dwayne Jarrett
4. Amobi Okoye
5. Patrick Willis

[Mr. Pink]

With where we are picking I'll go my top 5 wants at pick number 12 for us, that realistically can/may be available....

OLB-Lawrence Timmons FSU....based on if the Bills think Spikes won't regain his early 2005 form and wash their hands of him...Personally, I'm skeptical and Timmons would be a huge acquistion.

OT-Levi Brown PSU...I know most people will complain about reach on this one, but we could move down a few spots, still probably get him and pick up some extra picks in the process. I'm not sold on pennington being any sort of answer.

OG-Justin Blalock...See above, except I can't see us starting Merz.

RB-Marshawn Lynch...McGahee in all likelihood will be gone after the next season, Lynch can step in to give him breathers and gain some experience which will bode well for him stepping in as the 2008 starter.

WR-Ted Ginn JR..Gives Losman another weapon to work with at WR and makes Roscoe Parrish expendable considering his only use is return man because of his lack of size. Versatile pick up...Ginn could step in as the slot receiver and PR.

Some other names that may be interesting come April....Posluszny, Quentin Moses DE, Adam Carriker DE, DeMarcus Tyler DT.

[mysticsoto]

1. Jaamal Anderson
2. Alan Branch
3. Dwayne Jarrett
4. Amobi Okoye
5. Patrick Willis

I'd go with this list although I'd probably have a different order...

[Kenny]

Mine's:

1. Alan Branch DT (by far)
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2. Patrick Willis (only if we dont sign Lance Briggs and then only if we trade down).

3 Leon Hall CB (not the fastest CB, but his physical style is perfect for zone defenses such as ours)

4. Okobi Okoye DT (worried about the report that he looks too small... especially in the legs)

5. Dewayne Jarrett WR

[patmoran2006]

Lynch or Ginn would be real nice, and could realistically both be there.

[EDS]

Mine's:

1. Alan Branch DT (by far)
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2. Patrick Willis (only if we dont sign Lance Briggs and then only if we trade down).

3 Leon Hall CB (not the fastest CB, but his physical style is perfect for zone defenses such as ours)

4. Okobi Okoye DT (worried about the report that he looks too small... especially in the legs)

5. Dewayne Jarrett WR

That is pretty close to how I see things, though I would move Hall down the list a bit. If there was another DT or a guard worthy of a top 15 pick, I would add them to the list as well.

[Ron Burgundy]

PWillis is versatile and could start right away. I think he could be the pick.

You speak troof!

[Ron Burgundy]

Lynch or Ginn would be real nice, and could realistically both be there.

Teddy makes me sad, he doesn't have good hands.

[patmoran2006]

He'll fit right in then.

[kernowboy]

My preferred order

1 trade down and get Polsuzny
East coast blue collar guy can play in and out - Marv type of guy. fills a need
and extra pick could be a OL, DT or No2 WR

2 trade down and get Willis
Simply prefer Pos but would not be unhappy. Fills a need

3 Amobi Okoye, DT
at 6ft1 and 317lbs definitely big enough and with great upside. Fills a need

4 Levi Brown, RG
would prefer to go RG through FA

5 Justin Blaylock RG
as above - not a good history with Longhorn OLs a concern

I would only stand pat for Okoye and look to trade down and get extra picks with the others

[HHURRICANE]

Ginn: TOO SMALL, geez enough already with undersized receivers!!

Okoye: TOO YOUNG, we saw what a year of Youboty baby sitting got us.

I believe something good will be sitting at #12. Be patient. You can draft a RB and than trade Willis.

[Don't Panic]

Lynch or Ginn would be real nice, and could realistically both be there.

I like both of them, but I like Ginn more at #20-25, not #12. My only problem with Ginn is that he seems to have quite a few similarities to Evans, and we probably need someone with some more size at the other WR spot. Lynch is looking better and better every time I look at him. If McGahee is gone, he slides right up in there with the rest of them.

[TigerJ]

Amobi Okoye if he can put on 15 pound of muscle by the draft. His weight at the Senior Bowl practices scares me (287lbs.)

Dwayne Jarrett - I would love for Losman to have a big target who has great hands and extraordinary body control to pair with Lee Evans.

Jamaal Anderson - What a pair he would make with Aaron Schobel

Marshawn Lynch-Does everything well.

Darrelle Revis-I like his athleticism paired with his cover skill.

[jpdex12]

My preferred order

1 trade down and get Polsuzny
East coast blue collar guy can play in and out - Marv type of guy. fills a need
and extra pick could be a OL, DT or No2 WR

2 trade down and get Willis
Simply prefer Pos but would not be unhappy. Fills a need

3 Amobi Okoye, DT
at 6ft1 and 317lbs definitely big enough and with great upside. Fills a need

4 Levi Brown, RG
would prefer to go RG through FA

5 Justin Blaylock RG
as above - not a good history with Longhorn OLs a concern

I would only stand pat for Okoye and look to trade down and get extra picks with the others

Couple of things to think about...Add another 10-15 pounds to Okoye and he's back at 300lbs. Not hard for a bog boy like that to do.
Also, I have been reading all of the Senior Bowl reports and they are saying that Brown and Blalock have not been winning a lot of their one on ones. Only looking average.

[Night Train]

Calvin Johnson
Alan Branch
Jamaal Anderson
Joe Thomas
Marshawn Lynch

They're the 5 best for our team. Hmmm... Now who will be still there when we pick..

[X-Era]

1) Dwayne Jarrett
2) Alan Branch
3) Marshawn Lynch
4) Amobi Okoye
5) Tedd Ginn Jr.

The top 5 guys I DONT want at 12

1) Blalock
2) Revis
3) Levi Brown
4) Nelson
5) Woodley

[X-Era]

Calvin Johnson
Alan Branch
Jamaal Anderson
Joe Thomas
Marshawn Lynch

They're the 5 best for our team. Hmmm... Now who will be still there when we pick..

Marshawn Lynch it is :dance:

The rest will be gone IMO

[patmoran2006]

Marshawn Lynch it is :dance:

The rest will be gone IMO
That's the guy I want as well. .and I REALLY think that unless Clev takes Peterson at #3 and Texans (lock to take a RB) take Lynch at 8, he'll be there at 12.

[ParanoidAndroid]

I'm not sure why all the love for Akoye when he is not going to be able to change our fate at the 1-gap position at 285lbs. I think he will be looked at to play end in a 3-4. He's very talented, but the size is an issue.

My round 1 wish list?
1. Patrick Willis
2. Marshawn Lynch
3. Jamaal Anderson (may be gone)
4. Charles Johnson
5. Ted Ginn Jr. (I think Johnson and Jarrett will be gone)

[PECKERWOOD]

1.) Alan Branch - Best DT in this year and last years draft combined, hands down.
2.) Darrell Revis - Fast CB, worthy of going in the top 15, he should have no problems fitting into the cover 2.
3.) Adrian Peterson - If by a miracle he some how fell to us, we need to jump on this. Only scenario we don't take him in, is if Alan Branch some how fell to us as well..
4.) Aaron Sears - This is a man who is considered a late 1st round to early 2nd round prospect and I wouldn't be one bit angry if the Bills traded down or up to attain him.
5.) Poslunzy - Could probably trade down and still grab him. Stud linebacker from PSU, who idolized another PSU alumni/Bills great - Shane Conlan.

Honorable Mention: Levi Brown, OT, PSU.

[jpdex12]

Marshawn Lynch it is :dance:

The rest will be gone IMO

Could be Anderson and Lynch

[jpdex12]

andyxc71, your 1-3 could very well be there!

[Mahdi]

1.Jamaal Anderson ( Great oppsite Schobel and his size at 280 should be good against the run, a Peppers similarity)

2. Adrian Peterson ( Lynch seems like a better all around player but Peterson seems to be the best runner in the draft so I would rather have that)

3. Allan Branch ( if this guy is as mobile at 330 pounds as ppl say he is, I want him)

4. Paul Posluzny ( I love this guys character and work ethic, his production speaks for itself)

5. Dwayne Jarret ( Opposite Lee Evans--- enough said)

[Yasgur's Farm]

I think the Bills highest priorities will be taken care of in free agency...
1) RG
2) LB
3) DT
4) CB
5) WR
6) TE
7) RB

I suspect we'll draft BPA in the categories of any needs that were not addressed in free agency. That makes Dwayne Jarrett a very likely pick.

I would not be upset in the least if we traded up for Calvin Johnson.

[LifetimeBillsFan]

Who I want (which is irrelevant) and who I think they will take could change depending on Senior Bowl performances, but here's how I rate who I think the Bills will take:

1.) Amobi Okoye--Yes, he was only 287 at the Senior Bowl, but he is just 19 and will fill out--in the meantime, the Bills could move McCargo to the 1-gap spot, he's Marv's kind of guy, and, despite his lower weight, he has been tearing it up in the Senior Bowl practices. And, the Bills are known to have talked with him already.

2.) Patrick Willis--At a full 240 lbs. and with his speed, he could step in for Fletcher-Baker in a short time, meaning that the Bills could keep Crowell at OLB and have Ellison available to spell Spikes or take over from him after next season. I don't know much about him personally to be able to say whether he is Marv's kind of guy or not, but he has everything that the Bills could want physically in a MLB and has shown well at the Senior Bowl where he has been the best LB there so far.

3.) Marshawn Lynch--If he is still on the board and the Bills decide that they are not going to call Willis McGahee's bluff, he has the potential to be a "poor man's" Thurman Thomas. I still think that the Bills will force McGahee to play out his contract (coming off a bad year and with what little he has shown thus far, can Willis really afford to holdout this year?--I think not) and look to replace him in next year's draft, but Lynch may be too good an option to pass up if he is still on the board.

4.) Paul Posluzny--While I still think that he is more of a natural OLB than MLB, he is definitely Marv's kind of guy and, after showing up at the Senior Bowl at 237 lbs., he probably now is big enough to be a good replacement for Fletcher-Baker. I think he will be a good pro, but I have my doubts about him being a difference-maker for the Bills--still, I see him as a real possibility and a definite possibility if the Bills trade down out of the # 12 spot.

5.) Leon Hall--I think the Bills drafted Youboty with the intention of having him replace Nate Clements and still believe that they will give him every opportunity to do so. But, if they do not feel that Youboty can step up into that role and Hall is still on the board, I could definitely see them going for Hall, who looks to be the best of a deep CB class (this class is so deep that I could see the Bills waiting to take a CB until later). What happens in free agency and their evaluation of Youboty will have a lot to do with how closely they look at Hall.

Dark Horse Picks:
1.) Lawrence Timmons--I seriously considered putting him in my Top 5 instead of or with Hall and Posluzny: While he doesn't play a position of immediate need, Timmons is a tremendous athlete and a play-maker, which is something the Bills need more of on their defense and missed from Takeo Spikes last season. The Bills could move Angelo Crowell to MLB and groom Timmons to take over from Spikes, who is entering the last two biggest money years of his contract. Timmons won't immediately improve the Bills' run defense, but he could give them a young playmaker on defense for many years to come.

2.) Dwayne Jarrett/Ted Ginn, Jr.--I doubt that the Bills will ignore their defensive needs, but I wouldn't put anything past Marv Levy and he may conclude that one of these two guys is simply too good to pass up. Jarrett is a big WR--which is something that we all know the Bills lack--and, while he may not be that fast, he is a guy who constantly makes big plays, which is something that every NFL team craves and needs. He may or may not be Marv's kind of guy off the field, but he might be a weapon that they can't see passing on. Ted Ginn, Jr. is the son of a coach and may be more Marv's kind of guy, but the same applies to him. Ginn, Jr. isn't big or the best route runner, but he is incredibly fast and a play-maker who cannot be ignored. In his favor is the fact that Fairchild's offense doesn't necessarily require big WRs--neither T.Holt nor I.Bruce are big WRs--speed is more important. Working against Ginn, Jr. and Jarrett is the fact that this is a very deep draft at WR and there are some big WRs, like Paul Williams, Dallas Baker, etc. who should be available in the middle rounds and even later (think David Ball, Jacoby Jones).

I don't know who the Bills will pick, but, at this point, I really think that they will pick one of the players on this list. Now, watch Marv go out and make me look like an utter fool by taking someone else! :lol:

[kernowboy]

Question:

How good in Marshawn Lynch compared to guys like Darren McFadden and Steve Slaton plus others coming out in 2008?

We will only get marginal value for McGahee at present, but we may have a hard charging guy in the final year of his contract if we don't agree to tag him and let him walk. Surely even Rosenhaus will get that into his head. For me this is more likely than expecting a rookie to get 1,000yds. And if we sort the OL, a rookie starter in 2008 would find it easier to get to four figures straight out.

Would we risk overpaying for Lynch with the No12, when because of the depth of the 2008 at RB, we might get a better RB at No20 in 2008?

For me, while he's a decent player, I would rather need with our real needs now - DT, LB, RG - than create an additional need and have to use a top pick on filling it. Trade down and acquire extra Day1 picks, will combined with good player identification, take us much closer to the post season.

[Don't Panic]

The bottom line, especially after reading all of these posts, is that the options at #12 will be pretty solid - more solid even than last year when we were projecting who would be there at #9.

[X-Era]

Question:

How good in Marshawn Lynch compared to guys like Darren McFadden and Steve Slaton plus others coming out in 2008?

We will only get marginal value for McGahee at present, but we may have a hard charging guy in the final year of his contract if we don't agree to tag him and let him walk. Surely even Rosenhaus will get that into his head. For me this is more likely than expecting a rookie to get 1,000yds. And if we sort the OL, a rookie starter in 2008 would find it easier to get to four figures straight out.

Would we risk overpaying for Lynch with the No12, when because of the depth of the 2008 at RB, we might get a better RB at No20 in 2008?

For me, while he's a decent player, I would rather need with our real needs now - DT, LB, RG - than create an additional need and have to use a top pick on filling it. Trade down and acquire extra Day1 picks, will combined with good player identification, take us much closer to the post season.

I cant agree to put off a RB until next year based on the guys that MAY be available when we pick SOMEWHERE in the 1st round.

Besides, the RB's you name may be better than Lynch but if they are, they will go higher and we likely will pick lower :smile:.

If anything we need a true RB to push McGahee, and if he drags his butt through some games, he can eat bench. If we had Lynch, theres no reason we STILL couldnt tag McGahee and trade him. I wouldnt think thats wise, but hell we could tag him and trade him for a 6th rounder...still better than nothing.

Without a young RB pushing, someone that could take his job, McGahee may loaf and a team that wants to make a push to the playoffs cant afford that.

What if our best chance to trade him is THIS offseason? If we try to wait until 08, for a RB, who the hell starts next year if we trade Willis?

No, I say get your new guy while you still have your old guy a.l.a. New Orleans, let them battle, and make your pick for the future based on NFL, on the field, production.

[Night Train]

Question:

we may have a hard charging guy in the final year of his contract if we don't agree to tag him and let him walk. Surely even Rosenhaus will get that into his head. For me this is more likely than expecting a rookie to get 1,000yds.

I don't wish to tank another year, waiting for a supposed stronger RB class. We don't need a lot of RB's...we need ONE. One that isn't dancing around in the backfield waiting for the parting of the red sea. One that hits the line flying, getting the tough 2-3 yards and doesn't take a ton of negative losses behind the line of scrimmage while waiting to break the big one.

I don't even care about his off-field stupidity. Unless it's the Jets, he plays average at best. Can't catch well out of the backfield.

If they aren't going to sign him long term and he's underachieving at a key position, today is a good day to do something about it.

[kernowboy]

I cant agree to put off a RB until next year based on the guys that MAY be available when we pick SOMEWHERE in the 1st round.

Besides, the RB's you name may be better than Lynch but if they are, they will go higher and we likely will pick lower :smile:.

If anything we need a true RB to push McGahee, and if he drags his butt through some games, he can eat bench. If we had Lynch, theres no reason we STILL couldnt tag McGahee and trade him. I wouldnt think thats wise, but hell we could tag him and trade him for a 6th rounder...still better than nothing.

Without a young RB pushing, someone that could take his job, McGahee may loaf and a team that wants to make a push to the playoffs cant afford that.

What if our best chance to trade him is THIS offseason? If we try to wait until 08, for a RB, who the hell starts next year if we trade Willis?

No, I say get your new guy while you still have your old guy a.l.a. New Orleans, let them battle, and make your pick for the future based on NFL, on the field, production.

But with more top players at this position and teams with other needs, it is quite possible that the RBs will slide, like QBs, CBs, and WRs do in deep classes as well. Reading the MSN Foxsports about Lynch's ability to translate his college performance to the pros, selecting him at 12 is seriously overpaying.

[mysticsoto]

1. Jaamal Anderson
2. Alan Branch
3. Dwayne Jarrett
4. Amobi Okoye
5. Patrick Willis

DB, how would you feel if we grabbed Branch/Okoye (DT) in the 1st rd and Adam Carriker (DE) in the 2nd rd ? Carriker has been lighting it up but is still under the radar enough to probably be a high 2nd rd pick...or is he too slow for our system? He's supposed to be exceptional against the run and he's very big (6'6" 295 lbs).

[DraftBoy]

DB, how would you feel if we grabbed Branch/Okoye (DT) in the 1st rd and Adam Carriker (DE) in the 2nd rd ? Carriker has been lighting it up but is still under the radar enough to probably be a high 2nd rd pick...or is he too slow for our system? He's supposed to be exceptional against the run and he's very big (6'6" 295 lbs).


Im not a big fan of Carriker, though to be honest I havent seen much of him. The two guys I like in Rd 2 or who may be there are Charles Johnson, and the quickly falling Quentin Moses both out of UGA. Branch in Round 1 and one of those two ends in round 2, would help solidify the line, imo.

[ParanoidAndroid]

1.) Amobi Okoye--Yes, he was only 287 at the Senior Bowl, but he is just 19 and will fill out--in the meantime, the Bills could move McCargo to the 1-gap spot, he's Marv's kind of guy, and, despite his lower weight, he has been tearing it up in the Senior Bowl practices. And, the Bills are known to have talked with him already.

I agree that this is the only way Okoye could be the pick. That could also depend on whether McCargo can add a few pounds and hold the point.

[TheWingHead]

I would much rather get a veteran OL right now and draft an DT, i think trading down would be great because i dont see much hope of peterson and lynch getting through cleveland and houston

[Bmax]

I will go with these guys ...Who will or should be their at 12....

1. Levi Brown-Can he play Guard ?.....could start day one at RT....

2. Amobi Okoye-HE WILL GAIN WEIGHT I BET HE WEIGHS 295 AT THE COMBINE AND COME DRAFT TIME WILL BE 305..

3. Patrick Willis- Made plays all over the field....may be a little high for him but that didn't stop the bills with Whittner.

4. Darrell Revis- Physical cover corner...i don't think we will go corner in rd 1 ...it's just hard to ignore his talent.

5. Jarvis Moss- My sleeper...i just can't get the BCS game out of my head.. What a athlete...is he strong enough.....



Bmax

[Bert102176]

I hink we draft Willis for MLB, but hey why not trade ours for both of NE's picks although I hate seing NE have a pick at 12 but it would give us 2 1st rnd picks

[PECKERWOOD]

Damn, we still got 3 months to think about this. :ill: