Worst case (but plausible) off-season scenario

[OpIv37]

First, Fletch said he wants to leave and Marv seems to be building for youth so I don't see him throwing bags of money at a 32 year old MLB. Therefore I'm assuming he's gone.

Now, onto the rest of it. Say Marv decides not to re-sign Nate and we go after Briggs and Samuel. We get outbid in both cases. Meanwhile, Nate leaves. In the draft, both Okoye and Willis are gone before our pick.

Basically, this means we will go into next season trying to plug our existing defensive holes plus the loss of Nate and Fletcher with the guys on our roster, whatever we can scrounge together in the draft and maybe a few FA "role players" (like the ones that worked SO well for us last year- Price, Royal, Reyes, etc).

(BTW, I don't think the loss of Nate will hurt us too bad IF and ONLY IF we fix the pass rush and run D to take pressure off the corners).

Bottom-line: we are in desperate need of a playmaker or two on D, and there's a good chance we won't be able to get one this off-season. If that happens, we'll be lucky to go 7-9 next year.

[DraftBoy]

I cant say this is the worst possible outcome without outlining the other 9 picks prior to ours. If Willis and Okoye are both game at 12 then likely somebody will have fallen.

[OpIv37]

I cant say this is the worst possible outcome without outlining the other 9 picks prior to ours. If Willis and Okoye are both game at 12 then likely somebody will have fallen.

anyone who plays DT or LB?

We do need a receiving threat on the offensive side of the ball to compliment Evans and could use help on the right side of the OL (although I think we need someone proven and not a draft pick for the OL). But I don't think it's going to matter much if we can't fix the run D. Plus draft picks take time to develop, and with our schedule we can't even afford to blow a couple of games if we want a legit shot at the playoffs.

[Jan Reimers]

I don't think it's all that bleak. Based on the quality of our draft last year (Whitner, Simpson, Williams, Ellison and Pennington all contributed, and Merz shows some promise), I would have to think the brain trust knew what they were doing with McCargo and Youboty. I expect that they will play key roles this year.

Their emergence will allow us to concentrate a little more on other areas in the draft and FA. I'll bet we get at least one quality LB, RB, WR and O lineman, and perhaps a better TE and some help in the secondary and the D line.

[Devin]

Merz shows some promise

MERZ!!!

[DraftBoy]

anyone who plays DT or LB?

We do need a receiving threat on the offensive side of the ball to compliment Evans and could use help on the right side of the OL (although I think we need someone proven and not a draft pick for the OL). But I don't think it's going to matter much if we can't fix the run D. Plus draft picks take time to develop, and with our schedule we can't even afford to blow a couple of games if we want a legit shot at the playoffs.

DT and LB will not fix the run D alone. We still need a CB, and a DE. Thats the reason I say it really decides on the other 9 picks. For instance if Branch, or Adams falls. If Jarrett is avail, if Anderson is avail. Hall, Revis, or Hughes could all be picks. Really the first 11 picks matter not just 2 of them.

[OpIv37]

DT and LB will not fix the run D alone. We still need a CB, and a DE. Thats the reason I say it really decides on the other 9 picks. For instance if Branch, or Adams falls. If Jarrett is avail, if Anderson is avail. Hall, Revis, or Hughes could all be picks. Really the first 11 picks matter not just 2 of them.

DT and LB could more than tighten up the run D- it wouldn't be perfect but it could possibly be passable. If the DT is disruptive in the backfield, that will help the pass rush and make corner less of a priority.

The point is that we need a lot of help on D. If we lose Clements and Fletcher, don't get Briggs or Samuel or any other playmaker, and pick Jarrett in round 1, our D is going to be the same or worst as last year.

I don't think we can rely on McCargo and Youboty. McCargo didn't show much before his injury, and after the same injury two years in a row, that has to be a concern. I'm not completely discounting the possibility of him becoming a force, but it's a chance- if he doesn't come through, we're ****ed on the DL for the 3rd straight year.

As far as Youboty, he managed to get on the field as nickel in one game after a string of injuries. Even if he does start, he's gonna take his lumps for a while first.

No matter how you look at it, we need playmakers on D NOW to have a shot at the playoffs. Where are we going to get them?

[OpIv37]

look, the team made significant progress last year and that's encouraging, but it was also obvious that we're not there yet. I'd hate to see another off-season of signing the Royals and Reyes' of the league because we can't attract top talent.

[DraftBoy]

DT and LB could more than tighten up the run D- it wouldn't be perfect but it could possibly be passable. If the DT is disruptive in the backfield, that will help the pass rush and make corner less of a priority.

The point is that we need a lot of help on D. If we lose Clements and Fletcher, don't get Briggs or Samuel or any other playmaker, and pick Jarrett in round 1, our D is going to be the same or worst as last year.

I don't think we can rely on McCargo and Youboty. McCargo didn't show much before his injury, and after the same injury two years in a row, that has to be a concern. I'm not completely discounting the possibility of him becoming a force, but it's a chance- if he doesn't come through, we're ****ed on the DL for the 3rd straight year.

As far as Youboty, he managed to get on the field as nickel in one game after a string of injuries. Even if he does start, he's gonna take his lumps for a while first.

No matter how you look at it, we need playmakers on D NOW to have a shot at the playoffs. Where are we going to get them?

I direct you to read the "study" I did on our run D, it was in a thread I made. Basically it said that our run D gave up more ypc to the outside then the inside. The LB and DT you propose would help out inside run D and not our outside. So Im not sure how much a new DT and ILB actually help our run D, since it ignores that we are still going to give up a ton of the yards to the outside.

[OpIv37]

I direct you to read the "study" I did on our run D, it was in a thread I made. Basically it said that our run D gave up more ypc to the outside then the inside. The LB and DT you propose would help out inside run D and not our outside. So Im not sure how much a new DT and ILB actually help our run D, since it ignores that we are still going to give up a ton of the yards to the outside.

then why would we re-sign Clements? $25 million guaranteed for a guy who can't come up in run support? **** that.

Oh, and the defensive system also calls for getting pressure on the passer. Our DT's were awful at that.

And let's say you're right- we need a DT and OLB who can play the run, or a corner who's better at run support. Who? Samuel? Cato June? What if we get outbid on those guys, which is also entirely possible?

Either way, a lot needs to be done to fix this D and with the guys available and the number of teams with cap room, I don't see how it's going to get done.

[Tatonka]

op, i know your into "keeping it real"... but sometime that really comes across as "grumpy cuz there is sand in my vagina."

:rofl:

[OpIv37]

op, i know your into "keeping it real"... but sometime that really comes across as "grumpy cuz there is sand in my vagina."

:rofl:

I'm surprised it took this long for someone to make a comment of this sort....

I should probably just stay out of the Bills forum this time of year. I just see people throwing names around- Clements, Briggs, Freeney, Samuel, Fletcher, trading up, trading down, etc- everyone has a different opinion of what we should do, and I can't help but wonder what happens if none of it gets done.

I think it's going to be hard to attract the big name FA's in the posiitions we need, but it's clear that we need to get some help from somewhere.

[Tatonka]

i know we need help.. and so do the bills. they have acknowledged that..

but there is no need is assuming that we wont get ANYONE..

your scenario basically says.. "we will get no good FAs and we will get screwed on EVERYONE that could help us in the draft and get NO ONE that is any good".

there is no sense assuming the worst right now.. what is the point.. if it happens, then we can all ***** about it together!

[OpIv37]

there is no sense assuming the worst right now.. what is the point.. if it happens, then we can all ***** about it together!

fair enough :up:

[raphael120]

i just hope when these words are said "And with the 14th pick in the 2007 NFL draft, the Buffalo Bills chose..."

It won't be followed by the same response i gave last year:

Jaw drop. "Who the **** is that!?!"

[feelthepain]

First, Fletch said he wants to leave and Marv seems to be building for youth so I don't see him throwing bags of money at a 32 year old MLB. Therefore I'm assuming he's gone.

Now, onto the rest of it. Say Marv decides not to re-sign Nate and we go after Briggs and Samuel. We get outbid in both cases. Meanwhile, Nate leaves. In the draft, both Okoye and Willis are gone before our pick.

Basically, this means we will go into next season trying to plug our existing defensive holes plus the loss of Nate and Fletcher with the guys on our roster, whatever we can scrounge together in the draft and maybe a few FA "role players" (like the ones that worked SO well for us last year- Price, Royal, Reyes, etc).

(BTW, I don't think the loss of Nate will hurt us too bad IF and ONLY IF we fix the pass rush and run D to take pressure off the corners).

Bottom-line: we are in desperate need of a playmaker or two on D, and there's a good chance we won't be able to get one this off-season. If that happens, we'll be lucky to go 7-9 next year.

I think you'll have plenty of talent sitting there at 12.

[OpIv37]

I think you'll have plenty of talent sitting thier at 12.

I'm sure there will be talent- I'm just hoping it's talent in the right position.

[jdbillsfan]

I'm sure there will be talent- I'm just hoping it's talent in the right position.

I think the Bills could use help at almost every position except for Safety and QB.

[feelthepain]

I'm sure there will be talent- I'm just hoping it's talent in the right position.

There is a lot of Dline talent in this draft, they won't all be gone in the first 11 picks.

[X-Era]

First, Fletch said he wants to leave and Marv seems to be building for youth so I don't see him throwing bags of money at a 32 year old MLB. Therefore I'm assuming he's gone.

Now, onto the rest of it. Say Marv decides not to re-sign Nate and we go after Briggs and Samuel. We get outbid in both cases. Meanwhile, Nate leaves. In the draft, both Okoye and Willis are gone before our pick.

Basically, this means we will go into next season trying to plug our existing defensive holes plus the loss of Nate and Fletcher with the guys on our roster, whatever we can scrounge together in the draft and maybe a few FA "role players" (like the ones that worked SO well for us last year- Price, Royal, Reyes, etc).

(BTW, I don't think the loss of Nate will hurt us too bad IF and ONLY IF we fix the pass rush and run D to take pressure off the corners).

Bottom-line: we are in desperate need of a playmaker or two on D, and there's a good chance we won't be able to get one this off-season. If that happens, we'll be lucky to go 7-9 next year.

First, Fletch and Nate are absolutely gone, so that not a worst case, but in fact a fact. Since they are both gone, I think its likely we will look for draftees at BOTH spots. Youboty will get a shot to earn the spot, but we still need a guy to replace Youboty's spot. Its likely that one or BOTH is filled on day one of the draft. I dont exactly feel like thats a worst case either. Briggs is likely OUT as an option, latest word is hes likely to be franchised tagged. CB, could be a spot where we sign some guy, buyt I still think a draftee is more likely.

That said, we need playmakers on BOTH sides of the field considering our rankings. Id say draft picks such as the 12th pick will help us day one no matter who it is.

[TigerJ]

In theory, the players who get drafted early stand a better chance of making significan contributions to your team than those drafted later, but that does not mean Buffalo can't find good players in the second third or fourth round who could shore up the Bills at their point of need. If Okoye and Willis are gone at #12 and Buffalo drafts Jamaal Anderson of Dwayne Jarrett at #12, Justin Harrell and Kareem Brown are DTs who will be around in round 2 and they both have a lot of upside. Rory Johnson will be around in the third or fourth round and he has awesome upside at MLB. He might be a little less NFL ready than Patrick Willis, but even that is not a sure bet, and his upside might actually be higher. If Buffalo doesn't get Kareem Brown or Justin Harrell or Rory Johnson, there are other guys who may make a significant contribution: Marcus Thomas, Brandon Mebane, and Ryan McBean, Tim Shaw (Posluzny's teammate who has great measurables and knows how to play.) There are always options.

[LifetimeBillsFan]

Let me add to that the fact that there are plenty of very interesting LBs who should still be around in Round 2 or even Round 3: Siler, Harris, Alexander, Everrett, etc. And, this is a pretty deep draft at CB as well.

I don't expect the Bills to sign a lot of high-priced free agents, OpIv, so your scenario in that regard is not just quite plausible, but even perhaps likely to be what happens there. But, this isn't a draft that ends after the first round. There will still be some pretty good players--indeed, some play-makers--who will still be available after the first round. And, as has been pointed out, if Okoye and Willis are gone by # 12, there are still going to be some pretty good players left on the board, including those who fall to them instead of going to the teams that take Willis and Okoye. (For example: Lawrence Timmons may be the best play-maker of all of the LBs in this draft, but we really haven't talked about him because he is an OLB and the Bills would have to move Crowell to MLB if they were to draft him--still, he's a guy who could be another Derrick Brooks.)

I understand your concerns, though, OpIv, I have wracked my brain over them as well. But, if things don't fall in place so that the Bills can do things the easy way, they are going to have to find ways to get things done the hard way. And, even though I know that it makes you very uncomfortable, there is something that you have to take into consideration as well (because it is something that every coach expects and counts on): not every player makes a splash as a rookie--rookies are expected to get better and develop into solid players, even stars. The Bills have a couple of players, McCargo and Youboty, who didn't contribute much last season, but who the team will expect to be much improved and able to step up and play this season. I know that scares some people because they know that those players are going to make some "rookie" mistakes and that opponents will try to attack them because they are inexperienced (and they are right about that). But, you never know that you are going to have in any player until they face that test and stand up to it. The Bills didn't draft these players where they did thinking that they would not be able to pass that test: they drafted them because they expect them to pass it. And, whether it makes some fans uncomfortable or not, they are going to give them the opportunity to face that test--they have to and they will because they need to find out if those two players are going to be players for them or not. That's something that every team does, not just the Bills--because that's what football's all about. And, it's going to be up to McCargo and Youboty and whoever else the Bills draft this year to prove that they can live up to their potential. And, we're not going to know how well they can do that until the team has played a couple of games (if not more) next season.