The Reality of FA

[patmoran2006]

Its another year and another endless thread and debates about who the Bills are going too/should target in Free Agency.

Unfortunately, I think too many people are forgeting that we have an 87-year old owner who spent more time this season *****ing about if the team would even be able to stay in Buffalo, and revenue sharing and blahblahblah.

Wilson AINT paying Clements and he aint paying Fletcher, whether they are worth it or not.

Does anyone in their right mind think that Wilson is going to open up his vault and outbid other teams for guys like:
Briggs, Dielman, Samuel, Grant, Stallworth, Steinbach, June, Graham, etc.?

I'm not saying any or all of these guys are worth what they'll get. Im saying that Wilson aint out-bidding anybody for a prized FA anymore, I dont care if we have $300 million in cap space.

Is that to say the Bills will automatically be worse next year? Well not necessarily.. A great draft will help of course.

MOre importantly, Levy is going to have to target some mid-level free agents that will fit perfectly into his system. Last year he totally BUSTED in FA, with a collection of stiff FA signings including Price, Reed, Nall, Royal, Bowens, blahblahblah.. They were at the time and continued throughout the season as a bunch of "so what" players. the one guy we did pony up money for seemed overpaid by his performance (Tripplett)

SO if we're going to continue to debate and discuss some of these big names in Free agency, fine.. but I GUARENTEE you we're all going to be very dissapointed if you think Wilson is going to ante up for some big 'name" free agents.

And Im telling you now, maybe the Bills fans on here are more rabid, but if this team loses two of their biggest names in Fletcher and Clements, and signs nobody of value in their place, and they stumble out of the gate again in 2007.. Attendance is going to plummet and the talk will be about the Bills leaving town..

And if you think Im wrong about attendance, just remember the last four games this year, including two when we were in a playoff hunt.

The truth is the majority of fans are sick of the Bills losing, they want a contender and even if its a "perception"-- Wilson better ****ing pony up some money and go after players who can get this team into the playoffs.

[patmoran2006]

The ONLY guy who can really save this organization from a complete mess right now is Marv Levy.

If he can convince Wilson to spend the money, and convince guys on the fence about coming to Buffalo (if an offer is equal to another team) that this is the team on the rise.

[alohabillsfan]

Unfortunately, I have to agree! Well said!

[X-Era]

Im reposting my previous take on our offseason:

So what now?

Well lets take a look at whats liekly to happen. I think a major part of what the Bills will do will be based on Jaurons say and Marvs. A friend made a good point that Marv has said the best FA's to sign are your own. I seem to remember him saying that back in the day. As far as Dick goes, I t hink our moves at the bye, and keeping all our draftees speak volumes. I originally wanted us to make huge sweeping moves, but I really dont see that happening and I explain why in each case. I think our late surge may have Dick and Marv not wanting to mess with a good thing. Ralphs comments about money make me think he isnt likely to break the bank. I honestly believe what JP says which is the personnel is already here to be a SB team, but he also has never been to win so does he really know what it takes. Anyways, I ccan easily see another conservative offseason.

Heres the sensible (hopefully Marv and Dicks) version of what we do:

QB- Nothing, KH can be a backup, he wasnt a cancer so he can stay, 3rd can be had just about any way
RB- Nothing, Willis can be great, but at the minimum is solid
TE- Maybe a youngster to push Royal. Royal made a late surge and may continue.
FB- Maybe a youngster to push Shelton. May not be necessary, but Sheltons long in the tooth
LT- Nothing, we have a stud here. Backup can be manned by any of the current prospects
LG- Depends on Gandy, hes a FA. Hes been part of a successful unit after the bye, hes an x-Bear, hes done pretty well in his new position. Youngster to push him would be nice, but I can easily see Gandy getting resigned to a modest second tier OG contract, and being handed the job next year. Take a look at our success running the ball vs. which side we run to, we are doing very well on the L side, Gandy may stay. Reyes is likely cut.
C- Fowler is a Jauron brought guy. I would love to see a big upgrade here. I honestly havent watched the middle that closely, but in the Titans game I did notice Fowler getting destroyed. I think a Mangold/Mawae type C could make this line great. But, since Fowler is a Jauron guy I could see us giving him the job too.
RG- Preston has played well, Villarial is likely going to be cut. But an upgrade here would be great. The previously stated run stats about success vs. side of the line shows our line on the right side is weak as far as run production goes. Steinbach is a LG, but a switch may be easy. Jauron had Preston as a backup, Villarial (even though he was a Jauron guy) was part of the pathetic pre-bye OL, I can see us heading in a new direction. Womack is another guy I like alot but Im not sure Jauron likes the bigger, fatter types. I think a change is likely.
RT- Pennington is a Jauron draftee and was promoted to being a starter and stayed there. He also has done a decent job, considering his youth. I could easily see Pennington getting the job outright. With Butler as a backup, we may look for either another mid to late rounder or a second tier backup just for security. I think Jaurons move to start TP telegraph what we will do next year as well
WR- #1 and #3 is set. Peerless played well in the 2nd half and was brought in by the current regime. Josh also played well. Parrish had some sparks, but also some dumb plays. I see Josh and Peerless staying and playing, Parrish may be a bubble guy. The big question is whether Peerless can be all we need as #2, I think Jauron, and especially JP may argue he is just fine due to his post-bye surge. I can also see us grabbing a early draft day guy who drops into our laps. It would be a "greatest value at the pick" type pick a.l.a. Willis. Maybe a guy who could be the new punt returner or even kick returner if Clements bolts and we dont want to risk McGee to injury. A guy like Ginn Jr might make sense, Paul Williams may be another.

DE- at RDE we are set, at LDE Kelsay and Denney are both UFA's. I can see one leaving. So that makes a LDE a big need due to the rotation theory. Jauron made no real moves, so theres no guys that would seem to be Jaurons guy to fill in. I can see LDE being a priority for a Tampa 2 style team. I can see this from either the draft or FA or both. If Freeney is allowed to leave, he plays in Tampa 2, is a Syracuse alumn, I would think we would COVET him. In the draft, I could see tweener types like Moses, Adams, Woodley fitting the Bill.
DT- Mccargo will be back from injury and we moved up to get him, Williams was a real sleeper and nice suprise, Tripplett was solid but lackluster. Hargrove was a great mid season add that helped us get better pressure. I can see the need for one more rotation type, a run stuffer would be great, but we also cant get a strict situational guy due to giving away our D to the opposing O. I think another quick DT may be a move we make.
OLB- Spikes made a late surge as a very solid player, hes not a top 5 or even 10 guy as of now, but I think he still is hampered by injury. This is a big question mark. Hes not a Jauron guy, he makes alot of money, and hes had a so so year. There is likely to be great players/prospects available in FA and the draft. Briggs, June, Adalius Thomas, Puz, Blades, and more are going to be out there. I could see us going either way, hoping TKO steps up more, or getting insurance through the draft or FA. At the other spot, Crowell will be back and Ellison proved to be pretty solid. I can see 1 OLB being a spot we look at.
ILB- Fletch is the heart of our D, and has proven yet again that hes a stud (even if the idiotic pro-bowl voters cant get it right), hes not going to command big money at his age, and Ralph is rumored to be a huge Fletch fan. I see him getting resigned. The backup/insurance could happen but I think we may be looking at a mid or late rounder or second tier guy.
CB- Even though I want Nate back I think hes gone. McGee is locked up long term, Thomas made some decent plays, and Youbouty was a Jauron draftee that will be given a shot next year. I see this being one of our biggest priorities if you agree Nate is as good as gone. We just cant afford to let our pass D get worse and remain a playoff contender. Guys like Brady will pick us apart without a strong starting CB. FA is likely to cost us heavy. I could easily see the draft being our way to fix it (in the Bills minds). Its most likely going to be an early pick due to the need to have a very good one. Guys like Hughes/Hall would seem to be fits.
S- Both are set for a long time, the rookies made mistakes but both started virtually from day one, both are Jauron draftees, and both played well enough to earn a 8th ranked pass D. We even have Bowen signed long term to be a backup.
P- Moormans not going anywhere and is a perrenial pro-bowler case closed
K- Lindell is a quandry. The team plays half its games in windy Buffalo. The kick that he admitted he could not make just cost us the playoffs. Hes made many FG's this year and even some game winners. But will Jauron and Co. after a bitter loss want a guy with a stronger leg due to the winds? I could see a change being made, the big question is, is there anyone better with a stronger leg? I just cant answer that. To me it could go either way.

I think backups/support/youngsters to push will rule our offseason. I do think we will make a few big moves but its only going to be a few.

[patmoran2006]

I'm not saying the Bills will or will not suck without some key FA moves.

Im saying that they BETTER NOT SUCK if they dont make any key FA moves, or a lot of fans are going to leave those seats at the Ralph mighty empty.

Maybe I'm wrong.. I hope Im wrong.. Cato June, Harper and Dielman would be three TREMENDOUS signings value-wise.... and then say if we drafted Jarrett, we'd have have a playoff contender, IMO.

[YardRat]

I think Ralph will spend the money where and when Marv tells him. He trusts Marv, just like he trusted Levy and Polian during the late eighties/early nineties.

[Goobylal]

What makes you think Ralph won't spend money? Because he's complaining about the crappy new CBA, that even Bob Kraft is now saying was a bad deal for the owners?

This was the first year he didn't spend to the cap, and that was because his potential player costs rose $7.5M immediately after the new CBA was signed, without him seeing an extra dime in his pocket. And since the qualifiers for additional revenue sharing hadn't been defined (and STILL haven't), he probably told Marv to spend all but $7.5M on the cap.

And last year the Bills added a bunch of FA's and were trying to add Ryan Pickett to shore-up their run defense. He chose to go with GB. That addition probably would have made the Bills a playoff team. But there were other factors at work. Just like there might be this year.

[LifetimeBillsFan]

Ralph has this reputation for being cheap--and, no doubt, at times he has been--but isn't he also the guy who spent what was then a pretty big chunk of cash on London Fletcher, Takeo Spikes, Lawyer Milloy, Sam Adams (certainly more than NE wanted to spend on him!), Troy Vincent, and an extension for Drew Bledsoe, etc.?

Now, I don't think that the Bills generate enough for him to have the kind of up-front cash for bonuses (it's a question of cash-flow perhaps more than revenue) that the likes of Danny Snyder, Jerry Jones and some of the other owners have to lure players into coming to Buffalo, but it seems to me that he has been guided as much in the way that he has spent his money by the recommendations of his GMs as he has been by the limits on his cash-flow. He may not throw money around like Snyder or Jones, but he has spent as much or more on free agents in recent years as a lot of teams, some with a lot more revenue, have (how many big-money free agents have the NY Giants spent money on? Pierce, Burress, Madison, Demps, Arrington; what about the Jets?).

The problem is that the previous GM was more interested in signing big-name free agents from other teams than in retaining some of the players that the Bills already had who were free agents. Once he has finished "cleaning out the lockerroom" and brought in the kind of players that he and his coaches want, I do not think that will be the way that Marv Levy will do things. Like a lot of other teams, I think Levy will try to build through the draft, sign some of the Bills' key young players to extensions, sign a few low-priced role players, and bring in one or two key free agent additions as they build their team. And I think that Ralph will give him the money to do that when it is reasonable (if the player doesn't have his heart set on being the highest paid player at his position, like Clements has said he wants to be).

A lot of people have talked this offseason about how far under the cap the Bills are and have assumed that the Bills are in a position to spend a lot of money pursuing free agents. But that's not necessarily the case. While the Bills have Jason Peters and Aaron Schobel wrapped up nicely for the next couple of years, they have to be thinking about whether they want to offer contract extensions to Willis McGahee, Lee Evans and JP Losman and, if they decide that they do, those are three contracts that will take a significant chunk out of their available cap room and the amount of cash that RW can afford to lay out in up-front bonus money. And, that's not even taking into consideration whether they want to try to retain Clements or lock up Crowell or any of their other players.

Ralph Wilson paid a goodly amount to players like Jim Kelly, Bruce Smith, Thurman Thomas, etc. back in the day and to the free agents that I mentioned during the Donahoe years. And, I think he will continue to spend money. But, the question is where: on retaining as many of the Bills own key free agents or on other teams' high-priced free agents? Personally, I would like to see the Bills do their best to retain the good young players that they have developed and spend somewhat less in free agency than have a revolving door on the lockerroom for the draft picks that they develop while trying to outbid the rest of the league for the handful of premium free agents that will command top-dollar or veterans who have well-known names or reputations who are over-the-hill or just looking to get paid. If that's being cheap, well, then call me cheap, too.

I think Ralph Wilson will pretty much go along with whatever Marv Levy recommends in terms of spending in free agency. If Marv tells him that there is a player out there that the Bills absolutely have to have, I think Ralph will let him make a competitive offer for that player--now that may still not be enough to get the player to sign with the Bills, but I think they will make the offer. I think Ralph will give Marv a reasonable budget and enough leeway in how to spend it that Marv will be able to decide how he wants to build his team and how much he is willing to invest in any given position or player. The Bills won't be extravagant like the Cowboys or Redskins, but neither are a lot of teams in the league (how many big money free agents have the Pats, Browns, Jags, Titans, Bucs, etc. signed over the last 5 years?).

[kernowboy]

I think Ralph may well pony up some money if he sees a coherent plan rahter than the scattergun approach of the TD and Williams/Mularky era.

What we must not forget is that there will be 31 teams looking at the same free agents and depending how we value them will depend whether we get outbid or not. Why should we overpay if another team has an inflated opinion of a player?

I think we might look at the following

QB: Stay the same. Maybe move Nall up and pickup a OFA as a 3rd stringer. If Pat Ramsay was around and reasonable I'd want a look
RB: Retain Willis for this season only and A-Train if we can. If not get TJ Duckett in. Maybe get a 3rd down back on Day2 to replace Shaud Williams
WR: The big problem is the No2. We may give the guys here another season but if Rice or Meacham are available in R2, we'll bite
TE: Royals development makes this a luxury pick. A lower pick if Everett goes.
FB: Shelton to get released, Cieslak to start, maybe someone like Jesse Allen as a R7 or OFA
OL: Resigning Gandy makes it set apart from RG. I think Villarial is gone, but if we cannot pick up a RG, what chance Reyes moving back to his Panthers position whilst Merz develops? .. Preston to backup and push Fowler. I'd like a draft pick who can develop into a LG but can also back up Peters, like Doug Free or Mike Otto

DE: Kelsay is a UFA, Hargrove is a RFA. I would like to upgrade but don't regard it as a problem if we don't and resign these guys.
DT: We really need 4 tackles to rotate and keep fresh. There's not a lot (at present) in FA and I am not sure of the draft - we may wait unitl 2008 here. I can see a Day2 guy however like Keenan Carter or Mike DeVito or Dorian DeRosia
LB: Here's where the upgrade occurs. I see Fletcher leaving, but I also see Spikes off as well as Levy/Jauron put their stamp on the team. He's overpaid for what he will likely deliver in future. I would like us to get Napolean Harris as our big MLB and maybe draft a strongside from the top 3 of Timmons, Posluzny or Willis. If we go DT in R1 again (Okoye?) then we may retain TKO for one more season and then draft Dan Connor in 2008
DB: Youboty to start, a early Day2 pick and Thomas as an emergency starter. A wildcard might be Mike Rumph but I doubt it.

I would rather our extra cash under the cap being used to guarantee that Losman, and Evans and the like go nowhere, rather than bring in big names who more often than not fail to live up to expectations.

If we can get 2 starters, 2 decent backups and 2 with potential in the draft plus a couple of reasonable free agents, we will likely get to the playoffs.

Certainly at the end of the 2007 season the areas we will be looking to change - RB, DT, maybe LB have some depth in the 08 draft and we can look forward to being back as a perenial contender