A Deal with Denver? Possibility...

[jpdex12]

When I look at our #12 pick in the draft, I think about what Buffalo might really do...

Obviously FA dictates an awful lot, but OBD must be thinkig ahead at this time.

Yes, we could grab a solid player with this pick. ILB-Willis/Timmons...might be a reach, might not.
We could also pick up a solid DT-Okoye/Harrell
We cuold grab a starting WR-Jerrett/Bowe/Rice/Meachem
We could get a starting DE-Carriker/Johnson/Anderson/Moss
We could end up with a solid CB-Hall/Revis
Or even a RB-Lynch
All possibilities....

What we also must think about is that OBD may want to trade down. If they do, the one obvious partner with extra picks that I see and we all have heard of already is Denver. They have two 3rd rounders and a 2nd rounder and a 4th rounder. Buffalo is at #12, Denver is at #21. The point value difference between them is 400 points. This means that if there is a player that Denver wants (CB) and has to trade up to get it, Buffalo could trade down to #21 and get either Denver's 2nd and 4th or both of their 3rds and the point value of this trade is almost 400 points. It seems that Buffalo would ask for a 2nd and a 4th as this would give them 398 points rather than 395.

This is a realistic possibility if Buffalo feels they can wait 9 more picks and get a player they want and also get two more useful picks as there is decent value in the mid rounds this year. This would also let us fill some holes and create depth with youth. Look at all of the players in the draft above that I listed that you know would still be there at #21. I would pull the trigger immediately on this if we had a dancing partner in Denver. Denver needs a DB after Williams got killed. They may look at Hall. There's a need to trade up.

Our draft could look something similar to this...
#21-Bowe or Timmons/WR or LB
#43-Mebane or Harrell/DT
#56-Ross or Hughes/CB
#74-K. Irons/RB (He is my Travis Henry of this draft. He runs hard and has the moves to be the back that Fairchild is looking for like a Faulk type back)
#108-Yanda or Free/OL
#118-OL
No 5th rounder-traded to St. Louis for Hargrove
#170-Depth
#204-Depth

I'm bored tonight. Go easy on your critisisms...

[Mitchy moo]

I'd take 2 3rd rounders and try to plug the d line.

[clumping platelets]

I would rather have a 2nd and maybe an extra pick next year

Right now, I'm liking Carriker more and more

[jpdex12]

I would rather have a 2nd and maybe an extra pick next year

Right now, I'm liking Carriker more and more

What if we moved Hargrove to DE? He has the abilities.

[ricogarion]

The effort you put into this thread is to be commended.Thank you for your work.

[jamze132]

If we can trade down and still get Patrick Willis, I am all for it.

[LifetimeBillsFan]

If we can trade down and still get Patrick Willis, I am all for it.

Not likely. The Rams and Carolina could be looking for a MLB and both are picking right behind the Bills. Any tradedown could mean that the Bills would lose Willis to one of those two teams. Certainly going down to # 21 would almost guarantee that someone would take at least one LB before the Bills got on the board. And, there would be a good chance that both Willis and Timmons would be gone at that point.

You're taking your chances when you trade down--that's why draft day trades at the top of the draft take time and aren't as easy to make as fans sometimes think they should be. Teams don't just look at value charts, they also have to assess how much of a drop-off in talent there will be at a position of need or that they have targeted as well as what the odds are that a player will still be on the board when their pick would roll around.

Tom Donahoe deserves every bit of criticism that he gets from Bills fans, but one of his draft day moves is a perfect illustration of what I'm saying about some of the calculations that teams make: The year that the Bills took Willis McGahee, there were a lot of teams needing D-line and a lot of highly-rated D-linemen. A run on D-linemen started early at the top of the draft (I believe that's when the Jets traded up to get Robertson) and by the time the Bills' turn to pick came around everyone was assuming that the Bills would take Chris Kelsay with their first round pick. Realizing that most of the teams that needed D-line had already drafted a D-lineman and that the two remaining teams that might go D-line in the first or early second round (Oakland and the Giants) were not likely to take Kelsay, Donahoe passed on Kelsay and took McGahee instead (forget about the Wills vs Henry issue, TD got to take a player that it is likely he would not have had a shot at in Round 2--he could have taken anyone on the board at that point) and, then, was still able to get Kelsay anyway.

His approach to getting Kelsay (in the second instead of the first) is just one of the calculations that a team has to make when deciding whether to make a draft day move. The value chart is one thing, but the value that the team places on a player is another. Using the value chart, trading down from # 12 to # 21 may be worth 395 points on the chart and getting a 2nd and 4th round pick to do so might be worth 398 points, but but a team might value the play-maker that they can get at # 12 as being worth more to their team than the value that they would place on the three players that they would get with the draft picks that they would receive in return. They might be right and they might be wrong in that assessment--there have been instances in NFL history when teams have swapped one player for several players and/or draft choices and some have worked out well for the team getting the single player, while others have worked out really well for the team getting the multiple players and draft choices--but that is an assessment that teams have to make and do make.

Fans who rely on the value charts to ascertain whether a team did well or got burned in a trade sometimes don't take into consideration the fact that it's not just the value of the picks, but the value of the players that those picks can be used on and the value of those players to the team making the deal that determines whether the team would be willing to make the trade or not. For teams, all players at a position are not sequentially ranked (ie 1, 2, 3, 4, etc., with the difference in quality between 2 and 4 just being 2). Teams often see drop-offs in talent that can be significant in the players at a position (ie the difference in quality between the # 2 and # 4 player may be the difference between "a solid starter" and "a career back-up at best"). In such an instance, the value chart may say that the team trading down in a deal is getting better value than the team trading up, but value of the players may say that they are giving up a potential superstar for a solid starter and a career back-up (and who in their right mind would make that deal?!).

In this instance, I don't know whether the Bills or Denver would be interested in making the deal that has been proposed. We'll have to see if either of the two potential parties even makes such a proposal and how things go from there.

[jamze132]

Yeah, that's what I meant! LOL

[Earthquake Enyart]

We could trade all the way down to the Bears and still get Willis.

[jpdex12]

Not likely. The Rams and Carolina could be looking for a MLB and both are picking right behind the Bills. Any tradedown could mean that the Bills would lose Willis to one of those two teams. Certainly going down to # 21 would almost guarantee that someone would take at least one LB before the Bills got on the board. And, there would be a good chance that both Willis and Timmons would be gone at that point.

You're taking your chances when you trade down--that's why draft day trades at the top of the draft take time and aren't as easy to make as fans sometimes think they should be. Teams don't just look at value charts, they also have to assess how much of a drop-off in talent there will be at a position of need or that they have targeted as well as what the odds are that a player will still be on the board when their pick would roll around.

Tom Donahoe deserves every bit of criticism that he gets from Bills fans, but one of his draft day moves is a perfect illustration of what I'm saying about some of the calculations that teams make: The year that the Bills took Willis McGahee, there were a lot of teams needing D-line and a lot of highly-rated D-linemen. A run on D-linemen started early at the top of the draft (I believe that's when the Jets traded up to get Robertson) and by the time the Bills' turn to pick came around everyone was assuming that the Bills would take Chris Kelsay with their first round pick. Realizing that most of the teams that needed D-line had already drafted a D-lineman and that the two remaining teams that might go D-line in the first or early second round (Oakland and the Giants) were not likely to take Kelsay, Donahoe passed on Kelsay and took McGahee instead (forget about the Wills vs Henry issue, TD got to take a player that it is likely he would not have had a shot at in Round 2--he could have taken anyone on the board at that point) and, then, was still able to get Kelsay anyway.

His approach to getting Kelsay (in the second instead of the first) is just one of the calculations that a team has to make when deciding whether to make a draft day move. The value chart is one thing, but the value that the team places on a player is another. Using the value chart, trading down from # 12 to # 21 may be worth 395 points on the chart and getting a 2nd and 4th round pick to do so might be worth 398 points, but but a team might value the play-maker that they can get at # 12 as being worth more to their team than the value that they would place on the three players that they would get with the draft picks that they would receive in return. They might be right and they might be wrong in that assessment--there have been instances in NFL history when teams have swapped one player for several players and/or draft choices and some have worked out well for the team getting the single player, while others have worked out really well for the team getting the multiple players and draft choices--but that is an assessment that teams have to make and do make.

Fans who rely on the value charts to ascertain whether a team did well or got burned in a trade sometimes don't take into consideration the fact that it's not just the value of the picks, but the value of the players that those picks can be used on and the value of those players to the team making the deal that determines whether the team would be willing to make the trade or not. For teams, all players at a position are not sequentially ranked (ie 1, 2, 3, 4, etc., with the difference in quality between 2 and 4 just being 2). Teams often see drop-offs in talent that can be significant in the players at a position (ie the difference in quality between the # 2 and # 4 player may be the difference between "a solid starter" and "a career back-up at best"). In such an instance, the value chart may say that the team trading down in a deal is getting better value than the team trading up, but value of the players may say that they are giving up a potential superstar for a solid starter and a career back-up (and who in their right mind would make that deal?!).

In this instance, I don't know whether the Bills or Denver would be interested in making the deal that has been proposed. We'll have to see if either of the two potential parties even makes such a proposal and how things go from there.

It's a gamble no matter how you look at it. The biggest thing to assess is how much bang can you get for your buck and how can you help your team out the most. IF it means that we can make our team stronger with youth and deeper on the bench and we can find a partner to trade down with...then get r done! If we see a player that we can't pass on then you have to stay at #12. I'm just saying that beyond the first 8 top draft prospects, the talent evens out and you can find decent talent or the same talent into the mid rounds of day one. With the increased salary cap, FA is a mess now and players come and go too often so good depth will become more improtant in the near future.

[jpdex12]

The effort you put into this thread is to be commended.Thank you for your work.

Why thank you good fellow!

[kernowboy]

Trading down to 21 could almost certainly get us Posluzny LB

With an extra R2 we could get a WR - Rice, Meacham

and that would still leave a R2 for a DT and a R3 for an OL

and with two R4s we could certainly play with the draft in R2

it could be an excellent draft

Recall TD trading down from 14 to 21 avoiding Kenyatta Walker, getting Nate Clements at 21 and using the extra pick on Travis Henry

It could be an great decision!

[patmoran2006]

The only way Buffalo is in a great draft spot is if they decide they want a DT in either Okoye or Branch.. One of them should be there at 12.

Otherwise, they could trade down.
lynch or Jarrett would be available 4-5 spots later.. But what scares me about that is last year Marv proved if he wants a player he aint trading down despite what the consensus think about a players draft status. Obviously, they could move down if they want a LB as well.

Unfortunately, if they want a DE or Levi Brown they will probably have to move up. Anderson and GAines will be gone top 7-8 and Brown will probably be gone top 10..

If they keep this pick at 12, I REALLY expect they will take Okoye or Branch.

[alohabillsfan]

Trading down to 21 could almost certainly get us Posluzny LB

With an extra R2 we could get a WR - Rice, Meacham

and that would still leave a R2 for a DT and a R3 for an OL

and with two R4s we could certainly play with the draft in R2

it could be an excellent draft

Recall TD trading down from 14 to 21 avoiding Kenyatta Walker, getting Nate Clements at 21 and using the extra pick on Travis Henry

It could be an great decision!

You will be able to get Pos in the 2nd round!

[kernowboy]

You will be able to get Pos in the 2nd round!

How many players have looked poor at the combine or senior bowl yet been absolutely great NFL players?

I think scouts/coaches/GMs have wisened up to the weight room guys who can't deliver on the field. Stopwatch speed doesn't equal game speed. Lifting weights doesn't equate to shedding blockers ....

the Pats are licking their lips at the negative press that Posluzny is getting. They will pick him up if he falls to them, and they will get a top game linebacker with character and intelligence who will provide them with something that we lack on our defence ..... A LEADER

[HHURRICANE]

I really like our draft position this year. I wouldn't move becasue somebody very good is going to be sitting there at #12 that should have been a top 5 or 6 and we can pay them accordingly.

[Bert102176]

why not try to trade our 12th for the patriots 2 first round picks

[Marvelous]

The effort you put into this thread is to be commended.Thank you for your work.
What he said...

Thanks thread starter..I agree trading down 8-10 spots is always the way to go...Atleast when you have as many holes as we do..--LB--NT--RB--OG---NT--

[jpdex12]

What he said...

Thanks thread starter..I agree trading down 8-10 spots is always the way to go...Atleast when you have as many holes as we do..--LB--NT--RB--OG---NT--

Maybe, maybe not. As another post mentioned, if someone who is a top 7-8 player in the draft falls to us in a "big need position" for us then you can't pass on him, but we need to fill many holes with good young players. We need depth and this regime seems good at finding mid round players that can play...Ellison, Simpson, Williams. If we trade down that only gives OBD the opportunity to pick up more players like this while saving on the payroll as well. It's gonna cost a lot less to sign a rookie 3-6 rounder than 2-3 first and second round players. You know how Ralph thinks.

We are in a good position no matter what! Can't wait to see how it plays out.