TigerJ
03-26-2007, 11:09 PM
I think the trade of Spikes does a lot to tip Buffalo's hand in the draft.
Before the trade, Buffalo needed a starting RB, depth at LB, an upgrade at DT, FB, and depth at CB. You can also argue they could use upgrades at WR, TE, and DE but they can also make do whith what they've got at those positions.
There appears to be lots of talent at outside linebacker and CB. It's thinner at DT. There is good depth at RB, but few top tier RBs. Buffalo was unsure about the injury status and attitude of Spikes at this point in his career, particularly as a fairly high priced player. I think they saw the talent in the draft at OLB and decided that unloading Spikes was a low risk move. They got a DT out of the deal that effectively removes that position from the Bills' need list. Now the Bills need list looks llike this: Starting RB, starter at OLB or ILB (understanding Crowell's versatility) plus additional depth, FB, and depth at CB. They can still use upgrades at WR, TE, and DE.
Fullback is almost an after thought in the minds of most personnel strategists. The reason for that is simple. The primary thing you need a fullback for is blocking. You don't need rare athletes to be able to block. Instead it is about technique. You can take any highly motivated 250 lb kid with some brains and reasonable athleticism and teach him the techniques he needs. Yeah, I'm exagerating, but they've already had college football. It's just not that tough to find a blocker. Buffalo will probably draft someone late, or sign a fullback as an undrafted rookie, or both, but it's not a major part of their strategy.
If Buffalo is not scared off by Lynch's sore back during his last college season, I think here is an excellent chance he ends up as Buffalo's first round pick. It's also not out of the realm of possibility that Peterson falls. However, Buffalo, we know, has been hedging their bet by looking at second and third tier RBs like DeShawn Wynn.
The wealth of talent and speed at OLB is a major reason why Buffalo pulled the trigger on the Spikes trade. There are no less than a dozen OLBs in the draft who time better than 4.7 in the 40, and most of those are down near 4.6 or better. Some of them tend to be on the smallish side, much to the chagrin of teams that like their OLBs to be big and strong. That's great for Buffalo because speed is far more important to a linebacker in the Tampa 2 than size. Not all of those guys are going to be great NFL linebackers, but several will. The rest can be solid contributors. I think Buffalo believes they can get a solid starting linebacker in the third round, and a depth player on day two of the draft.
Buffalo believes Youboty can start. McGee is a proven starter, though he had a few rough outings last season. Buffalo should be OK if they don't get a starter out of the upcoming draft, but there is a good chance they can get one, or at least one with the talent to start at some time down the road. There are guys with speed and athleticism well into day two of the draft. Of course, speed and athleticism aren't everything. It will be up to the coaching staff to identify the guy who has good instincts and can learn good technique if he doesn't already have it, but there are such guys to be found. I think it more likely Buffalo drafts a CB on day one, but not in round one.
Buffalo will fill in with a WR, TE, DE, or QB as they spot guys they like.
To summarize: The Bills expect to go RB early and get at least one linebacker and one CB on day one. They will also look to get another linebacker on day two of the draft. Other than that, they will look for the proverbial best player, with a special eye toward WR, TE, DE, QB, and FB.
Before the trade, Buffalo needed a starting RB, depth at LB, an upgrade at DT, FB, and depth at CB. You can also argue they could use upgrades at WR, TE, and DE but they can also make do whith what they've got at those positions.
There appears to be lots of talent at outside linebacker and CB. It's thinner at DT. There is good depth at RB, but few top tier RBs. Buffalo was unsure about the injury status and attitude of Spikes at this point in his career, particularly as a fairly high priced player. I think they saw the talent in the draft at OLB and decided that unloading Spikes was a low risk move. They got a DT out of the deal that effectively removes that position from the Bills' need list. Now the Bills need list looks llike this: Starting RB, starter at OLB or ILB (understanding Crowell's versatility) plus additional depth, FB, and depth at CB. They can still use upgrades at WR, TE, and DE.
Fullback is almost an after thought in the minds of most personnel strategists. The reason for that is simple. The primary thing you need a fullback for is blocking. You don't need rare athletes to be able to block. Instead it is about technique. You can take any highly motivated 250 lb kid with some brains and reasonable athleticism and teach him the techniques he needs. Yeah, I'm exagerating, but they've already had college football. It's just not that tough to find a blocker. Buffalo will probably draft someone late, or sign a fullback as an undrafted rookie, or both, but it's not a major part of their strategy.
If Buffalo is not scared off by Lynch's sore back during his last college season, I think here is an excellent chance he ends up as Buffalo's first round pick. It's also not out of the realm of possibility that Peterson falls. However, Buffalo, we know, has been hedging their bet by looking at second and third tier RBs like DeShawn Wynn.
The wealth of talent and speed at OLB is a major reason why Buffalo pulled the trigger on the Spikes trade. There are no less than a dozen OLBs in the draft who time better than 4.7 in the 40, and most of those are down near 4.6 or better. Some of them tend to be on the smallish side, much to the chagrin of teams that like their OLBs to be big and strong. That's great for Buffalo because speed is far more important to a linebacker in the Tampa 2 than size. Not all of those guys are going to be great NFL linebackers, but several will. The rest can be solid contributors. I think Buffalo believes they can get a solid starting linebacker in the third round, and a depth player on day two of the draft.
Buffalo believes Youboty can start. McGee is a proven starter, though he had a few rough outings last season. Buffalo should be OK if they don't get a starter out of the upcoming draft, but there is a good chance they can get one, or at least one with the talent to start at some time down the road. There are guys with speed and athleticism well into day two of the draft. Of course, speed and athleticism aren't everything. It will be up to the coaching staff to identify the guy who has good instincts and can learn good technique if he doesn't already have it, but there are such guys to be found. I think it more likely Buffalo drafts a CB on day one, but not in round one.
Buffalo will fill in with a WR, TE, DE, or QB as they spot guys they like.
To summarize: The Bills expect to go RB early and get at least one linebacker and one CB on day one. They will also look to get another linebacker on day two of the draft. Other than that, they will look for the proverbial best player, with a special eye toward WR, TE, DE, QB, and FB.