The business side of the Turner talk

[Mr. Miyagi]

Everyone is talking about how good he is, and how San Diego has all the leverage in the world asking for the sky for him.

Don't forget, Turner is an FA next season. If they don't trade him now while his value is the highest, they will lose him for nothing next year. If Turner truly was in their long term plans, they would've locked him up in a long term re-up deal already.

All the other talk about him being great insurance is posturing. They only have Turner for this year only, and they're not making a SuperBowl run this very year with no receiver and a new coaching staff. And they know it.

Regardless of how good this guy is, they need to move him before the draft this offseason, or the suitor pool will dry up. And next season's draft is RB rich, and Turner's value will drop significantly. Don't let them fool you into thinking they hold all the cards. Because they don't.

[justasportsfan]

this is why I don't have a problem w/ Ralph sitting on it. I'm also sure that Aj Smith and Marv realize rb's are a dime a dozen and there's also next years rb draft class

[Bulldog]

Good post. But I still think SD has enough talent to make a SB run this year. It's not like their WR's we any great shakes last year either. And yet they still posted a 14-2 record and very well could have beat the Pats in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Plus, Rivers should progress being that it's his 2nd year starting.

[Mr. Miyagi]

You honestly think Michael Turner alone is the key to their SuperBowl run? Without him they don't have a chance? Come on.

[Bulldog]

You honestly think Michael Turner alone is the key to their SuperBowl run? Without him they don't have a chance? Come on.

Not what I said at all. What I said was in response to you saying that SD won't make a SB run this year. I think SD can make a SB run with or without Turner. I don't know how you took that to mean that SD can't make a run without Turner.

[Mr. Miyagi]

I'm just saying SuperBowl run or not, it's not a factor in their needing to trade Turner now. It's completely irrelevant. That's all.

[Bulldog]

I'm just saying SuperBowl run or not, it's not a factor in their needing to trade Turner now. It's completely irrelevant. That's all.

I feel it is a factor. If SD feels they are primed to make a run at the SB, it wouldn't hurt to have a back like Turner in case something happens to LT. If SD does trade Turner, and LT goes down with an injury, they are screwed. I know that Turner is no LT, but I honestly think he could carry the load for that team if need be.

[mysticsoto]

Not what I said at all. What I said was in response to you saying that SD won't make a SB run this year. I think SD can make a SB run with or without Turner. I don't know how you took that to mean that SD can't make a run without Turner.

One thing with SD is that they'll have alot of coaching changes to deal with. If they can adapt fast to the new coaches, then they could do a SB run. Otherwise, it might be better for them to trade Turner to get extra draft picks on prospects that might help them remain in contention down the road for years to come.

[Bulldog]

One thing with SD is that they'll have alot of coaching changes to deal with. If they can adapt fast to the new coaches, then they could do a SB run. Otherwise, it might be better for them to trade Turner to get extra draft picks on prospects that might help them remain in contention down the road for years to come.

I don't think their systems will change that much. Hell, Norv Turner installed their offense while he was the OC for them. And didn't the DC come from within the organization? I see SD being like Tampa when Gruden took over and won the SB his first year after the Bucs fired Dungy. Now weather or not Norv is as good a coach as Grunden is, thats a whole different debate.

[Mr. Miyagi]

I feel it is a factor. If SD feels they are primed to make a run at the SB, it wouldn't hurt to have a back like Turner in case something happens to LT. If SD does trade Turner, and LT goes down with an injury, they are screwed. I know that Turner is no LT, but I honestly think he could carry the load for that team if need be.
That's what it boils down to. Since they only have Turner for this year only, this is the year they feel they can make a SB run, as a one shot deal. They're willing to put all their eggs in this year's basket, even though it means losing out draft picks for players that can help the team longer than one year.

In other words, it's Turner or bust. That's what you're saying.

[Bulldog]

That's what it boils down to. Since they only have Turner for this year only, this is the year they feel they can make a SB run, as a one shot deal. They're willing to put all their eggs in this year's basket, even though it means losing out draft picks for players that can help the team longer than one year.

In other words, it's Turner or bust. That's what you're saying.

I'm saying that if the Chargers and AJ Smith feel that they can make a legitimate run at the SB this year, that maybe they hang on to Turner to provide an insurance policy in case LT goes down. I'm pretty confident that the Chargers would have a better chance of success with Turner than they would with another FA or a rookie draft pick.

[Mr. Miyagi]

A 2nd+ round pick is a very expensive insurance policy for just one year.

[Bulldog]

A 2nd+ round pick is a very expensive insurance policy for just one year.

I agree. I would almost compare it to what the Sabres did this year with Biron. Buffalo could have kept him this year in case Miller went down or struggled in the playoffs and lost him next year for nothing. Or, they could have traded him, which they did, and hope like hell Miller stays healthy and plays well. It also allowed them to address other areas of their team that needed help. It's all a roll of the dice.

[Mr. Miyagi]

That makes the most business sense, least risk and most reward. And that's what I expect SD will do.

So if some dork in Wisconsin knows this, surely NFL teams brass know this. And that's why I say SD does not have all the leverage. :up:

[Saratoga Slim]

I agree. I would almost compare it to what the Sabres did this year with Biron. Buffalo could have kept him this year in case Miller went down or struggled in the playoffs and lost him next year for nothing. Or, they could have traded him, which they did, and hope like hell Miller stays healthy and plays well. It also allowed them to address other areas of their team that needed help. It's all a roll of the dice.

Good analogy.

[Ickybaluky]

A 2nd+ round pick is a very expensive insurance policy for just one year.

However, assuming they do keep him and he leaves in FA, he has value to them. They get him for a full year, and he did run for 500+ yards and make several big plays for them. If he signs a big contract in FA and does well, they will get as much as a 3rd round comp pick for him (assuming they don't sign a premier FA themselves, which is unlikely).

I think they would like to trade him if they can get good value for him, but if not they will just hold onto him and get another year of production and insurance against an injury to LT, as well as a high comp pick the year after.

[Mr. Miyagi]

The comp pick theory is valid, but it assumes they don't sign anyone else to replace him at backup RB, which is unlikely.

As for the insurance theory, I think the value is higher in a 2nd and a 6th draft picks for players that I can sign for the next 4 years, than a backup guy who gives me 500 yards and 2 TDs for one year.

[Bulldog]

However, assuming they do keep him and he leaves in FA, he has value to them. They get him for a full year, and he did run for 500+ yards and make several big plays for them. If he signs a big contract in FA and does well, they will get as much as a 3rd round comp pick for him (assuming they don't sign a premier FA themselves, which is unlikely).

I think they would like to trade him if they can get good value for him, but if not they will just hold onto him and get another year of production and insurance against an injury to LT, as well as a high comp pick the year after.

Good point about the comp pick. If SD was in rebuilding mode, then I could see them trading Turner to address other positions of need. But for a team as talented as SD with high expectations, maybe it makes sense to them to keep Turner.

[Ickybaluky]

Good point about the comp pick. If SD was in rebuilding mode, then I could see them trading Turner to address other positions of need. But for a team as talented as SD with high expectations, maybe it makes sense to them to keep Turner.

Unless they get good value. I'm sure they are willing to deal him if they think they get good value, but it isn't like they have to hold a fire sale. They like the player.

I don't think he will get the 1st and 3rd, but he does have value to them. It isn't the worst thing for them is to hold onto him like they did with Drew Brees.

[Mr. Miyagi]

Imagine SD doesn't make the SB this year. And now Turner walks. Everyone would say "they should've traded him and got something for him last season." We just went through this with Nate Clements.

[Bulldog]

Imagine SD doesn't make the SB this year. And now Turner walks. Everyone would say "they should've traded him and got something for him last season." We just went through this with Nate Clements.

Imagine if LT goes down this year and Turner steps in and puts up huge numbers. Everyone would say "glad they didn't trade Turner." It could go either way.

[Mr. Miyagi]

In the last 5 years, how many games has LT missed? How many times they've made the SD? Which one is less likely?

[superbills]

In the last 5 years, how many games has LT missed? How many times they've made the SD? Which one is less likely?

Well, they play in San Diego, so I'm guessing they make it to SD at least a few times a year :couch:

[Mr. Miyagi]

I meant SB. :D

[justasportsfan]

In the last 5 years, how many games has LT missed? How many times they've made the SD? Which one is less likely?
the only game Spikes ever missed prior to his achilles injury, was when his pops died. Don't forget, rb's are the ones getting hit and lb's do most of the tackling. Which position is likely to get injured more?

[Mr. Miyagi]

I'll bet LT stays healthy and they don't get to the SB way before I'll bet LT goes down and Turner takes them there.