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Unless Patrick Willis is on the board when the Bills are on the clock; or Adrian Peterson magically becomes the guy this year to fall out of the Top Ten; this is a really bad spot for Buffalo to be in this year when it comes to the draft.
Think about it; pretty much all of the other players that are ranked/graded by pretty much everyone as Top 12 prospects that COULD conceivably fall to #12 come at spots that Buffalo is either strong at, heavily invested at or do not need.
For Example:
Okoye/Branch: One is likely to be there at 12. But Buffalo is already HEAVILY invested at DT. We gave Tripplett $18 million, traded UP to draft McCargo one year ago, drafted Kyle Williams and traded for Darwin Walker last month. So a DT in this spot makes no sense.
Carriker/Jamal Anderson: Definitely Top 12 talent and 80%+ chance one is on the board at 12. But with the Pro Bowler Schoebel, and Kelsay (who by the way if we just gave him $24 million, more than half of that GUARENTEED) this organization BETTER not even be thinking about a DE with the first pick. To boot, as a backup Denney had more sacks than Kelsay; and Hargrove is very intriguing. So again, DE can't really be an option here.
Leon Hall: Absolutely absurd in a cover two defense to employ a Top 12 pick on a cornerback. We also used a first day pick on a CB last year (Youboty) adn resigned Kiwi Thomas. DRafting Hall would make either last year's draft pick a waste or Thomas' resigning garbage as one of them would only be the FOURTH cornerback. I dont think happens, but if it did that's horrible offseason planning and management.
Levi Brown: Very likely to be gone by #12 anyway. But let's say on the 20% chance he's not and on the board at Buffalo. We still couldn't take him. We gave Langston Walker $25 million; and you dont pay a second guard $5 million per year. On top of that, we have a capable backup in Pennington. For those reasons, Brown is not a viable pick either, therefore not a need.
We don't need a QB-- CJ, Joe Thomas, Gaines Adams, Laron Landry are SURE to be gone--
So at the end of the day; Either Peterson or Willis fall to us, or we're going to get poor value with the 12th pick. (See demonstration on others above)
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Every year we have discussions about the team moving down-- but this is one year where they absolutely should.
If you move down in the draft (for last time, should AP and Willis be gone) IMO two things happen
1) You get extra pick(s) on a team with a lot to fill.
2) You get far better value with the pick.
Once you move down; you have better options and much better value.
LB- Beason, Pos or even Brandon Siler could bring great value and much needed help to the LB corp.
WR- You're now in the territory where it could be more sensible to take a Robert Meacham/Dwayne Bowe or even a Dwayne Jarrett. IF we don't do something to give Evans/JP help; I think we're going to find out the hard way how much teams are going to key on Evans. Im all for having an Indy/Arizona type offense where you cannot key on one guy cause others will kill you.
Olsen: Wouldn't be the most popular pick (and I'd take a WR before him) but if nothing else he's a legit weapon for the offense that can help the unit immediately by him being on the field.
Lynch: Ive heard enough about him recently that he may not be the pick no matter where we are on the board. Personally, if Marv decided RB should be first; and AP was gone, I'd rather move down, pick up another pick and then trade that first for Turner over Lynch; IFFFFFFFFFFF Marv decided RB is first.
CB: Much better value in late-mid/late 1st round. Then a guy like Reevis or Chris Houston becomes a stronger value pick. I still disagree about CB at all early; but taking one lower in the first with another pick to boot makes more sense.
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A hypothetical to demonstrate this...
Let's say the Giants really want a "shutdown" corner and target Leon Hall. They pick 20th and want to move up. We move down to 20. The Giants get Hall. By the draft value chart, essentially we'd get NY's first and second, and they'd get our first and 4th (111th).
We'd now have four first day picks, including a pair of second rounders. At #20 we could still easily get one of guys listed in part two (Pos, Beason, Bowe, Meacham) and have two second rounders (as well as 2 thirds). At that point I think a 2nd and 3rd would get Turner (who IMO is far better than level 2 RB's Pittman or Irons). Even if we didnt trade for Turner, we could still get Pittman/Irons in round two AND either a WR/LB (depending on what Marv took in Round 1). and we'd have a pair of thirds.
In closing; this is most definitely the year to trade down, provided Willis and AP are gone. If one of them are still on the board; scratch this post as both are franchise-quality players that a team like that cannot do without.
Think about it; pretty much all of the other players that are ranked/graded by pretty much everyone as Top 12 prospects that COULD conceivably fall to #12 come at spots that Buffalo is either strong at, heavily invested at or do not need.
For Example:
Okoye/Branch: One is likely to be there at 12. But Buffalo is already HEAVILY invested at DT. We gave Tripplett $18 million, traded UP to draft McCargo one year ago, drafted Kyle Williams and traded for Darwin Walker last month. So a DT in this spot makes no sense.
Carriker/Jamal Anderson: Definitely Top 12 talent and 80%+ chance one is on the board at 12. But with the Pro Bowler Schoebel, and Kelsay (who by the way if we just gave him $24 million, more than half of that GUARENTEED) this organization BETTER not even be thinking about a DE with the first pick. To boot, as a backup Denney had more sacks than Kelsay; and Hargrove is very intriguing. So again, DE can't really be an option here.
Leon Hall: Absolutely absurd in a cover two defense to employ a Top 12 pick on a cornerback. We also used a first day pick on a CB last year (Youboty) adn resigned Kiwi Thomas. DRafting Hall would make either last year's draft pick a waste or Thomas' resigning garbage as one of them would only be the FOURTH cornerback. I dont think happens, but if it did that's horrible offseason planning and management.
Levi Brown: Very likely to be gone by #12 anyway. But let's say on the 20% chance he's not and on the board at Buffalo. We still couldn't take him. We gave Langston Walker $25 million; and you dont pay a second guard $5 million per year. On top of that, we have a capable backup in Pennington. For those reasons, Brown is not a viable pick either, therefore not a need.
We don't need a QB-- CJ, Joe Thomas, Gaines Adams, Laron Landry are SURE to be gone--
So at the end of the day; Either Peterson or Willis fall to us, or we're going to get poor value with the 12th pick. (See demonstration on others above)
=========================================================
Every year we have discussions about the team moving down-- but this is one year where they absolutely should.
If you move down in the draft (for last time, should AP and Willis be gone) IMO two things happen
1) You get extra pick(s) on a team with a lot to fill.
2) You get far better value with the pick.
Once you move down; you have better options and much better value.
LB- Beason, Pos or even Brandon Siler could bring great value and much needed help to the LB corp.
WR- You're now in the territory where it could be more sensible to take a Robert Meacham/Dwayne Bowe or even a Dwayne Jarrett. IF we don't do something to give Evans/JP help; I think we're going to find out the hard way how much teams are going to key on Evans. Im all for having an Indy/Arizona type offense where you cannot key on one guy cause others will kill you.
Olsen: Wouldn't be the most popular pick (and I'd take a WR before him) but if nothing else he's a legit weapon for the offense that can help the unit immediately by him being on the field.
Lynch: Ive heard enough about him recently that he may not be the pick no matter where we are on the board. Personally, if Marv decided RB should be first; and AP was gone, I'd rather move down, pick up another pick and then trade that first for Turner over Lynch; IFFFFFFFFFFF Marv decided RB is first.
CB: Much better value in late-mid/late 1st round. Then a guy like Reevis or Chris Houston becomes a stronger value pick. I still disagree about CB at all early; but taking one lower in the first with another pick to boot makes more sense.
=========================================================
A hypothetical to demonstrate this...
Let's say the Giants really want a "shutdown" corner and target Leon Hall. They pick 20th and want to move up. We move down to 20. The Giants get Hall. By the draft value chart, essentially we'd get NY's first and second, and they'd get our first and 4th (111th).
We'd now have four first day picks, including a pair of second rounders. At #20 we could still easily get one of guys listed in part two (Pos, Beason, Bowe, Meacham) and have two second rounders (as well as 2 thirds). At that point I think a 2nd and 3rd would get Turner (who IMO is far better than level 2 RB's Pittman or Irons). Even if we didnt trade for Turner, we could still get Pittman/Irons in round two AND either a WR/LB (depending on what Marv took in Round 1). and we'd have a pair of thirds.
In closing; this is most definitely the year to trade down, provided Willis and AP are gone. If one of them are still on the board; scratch this post as both are franchise-quality players that a team like that cannot do without.
that Willis or Peterson is there at 12.
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