Neggie Nancy
04-20-2007, 11:05 AM
In a thread earlier today, I discussed what I thought was our best trade-down scenario (Denver). This time I'd like to get into what I think would be our best "trade-up scenario."
Now there are only two players in this draft from a Bills perspective that I think are worth trading for. One is Calvin Johnson. We'd have to give up pretty much out entire draft for him, and as dominating as I think he may be, it's unrealistic and frankly, not worth it.
The other one is Adrian Peterson. Now this is another story. Peterson, should he get past Cleveland at #3 becomes a realistic possibility at a position of great need.
Keep in mind that in any scenario I try to include a trading partner where it would make sense for them to make a move as well as Buffalo. A trade can't be a one-way street.
My trade scenario involves the Minnesota Vikings with the seventh pick.
Here is the trade, with chart values included.
Bills: Give up their first rounder (12th), second rounder (43rd), fourth rounder (111th) and seventh rounder (222nd). The total value points for this package is 1744.6 points.
Minnesota: Gives up their first rounder (7th), third rounder (72nd) and sixth rounder (182nd). total value for this 1748.6 points.
Why would Minnesota do this?: The Vikings have two major needs. One is a pass rushing DE and the other would be a top-ranked WR. For WR, Ginn, Bowe and Meacham would all the board at #12, which is more sensible than "reaching" for one at #7. With DE, either Jamal Anderson or Carriker are likely to be on the board as well. Without Minnesota having a sensible REASON to trade they wouldn't. To me, this is a sensible reason.
Why Buffalo would do this?: Adrain Peterson is simply THAT good. As I noted a couple of days ago, I saw a report on ESPN that his body fat % is only 4.5, so he's obviously in ridiculous shape. He also worked with Brady Quinn for two months and when his pro day came around, AP didnt drop a single pass. His hands are underated and weren't utilized at OU. lastly, can't remember what scout, but someone of prominence recently said AP has the best vision of any RB he's seen since Eric Dickerson more than 20 years ago. This guy is just a pure franchise RB. He would instantly make the entire offense better.
Knowing me, you know I'm never done.. So of course there is more.
With this trade: The Bills would then have THREE third round picks (#70, 72 and 92). The total value is 582 points. The value of No. 70 and 72 is 460 points.
If the Bills decided (and I certainly would) they wanted to get back into round two. They could package #70 and 72 together, which value-wise would put them back into the second round between picks 44-48. By doing this, they could target the best LB on the board and come away most likely with a Rufus Alexander or Stewart Bradley. They'd still have a late third rounder as well.
Or they can sit there with three third rounders and simply take the best three players on the board.
The drawback: Obviously by not landing a Willis or Beason, the defense for 2007 would suffer some.
The Positive: With a better OL, an emerging QB and a franchise WR, this offense could be sick. I"m talking one of the top 5 Offenses in the NFL sick. The Bills could have th ability to put 28 points up on any team in the league, which in turn takes a lot of pressure off the defense.
At the end of the day, I think its something that would have to be considered. AP is one of those special kind of players and if the cost to get a franchise player basically boils down to trading a second and a fourth for a third rounder while "swapping firsts", I think it's something you may need to do.
Now there are only two players in this draft from a Bills perspective that I think are worth trading for. One is Calvin Johnson. We'd have to give up pretty much out entire draft for him, and as dominating as I think he may be, it's unrealistic and frankly, not worth it.
The other one is Adrian Peterson. Now this is another story. Peterson, should he get past Cleveland at #3 becomes a realistic possibility at a position of great need.
Keep in mind that in any scenario I try to include a trading partner where it would make sense for them to make a move as well as Buffalo. A trade can't be a one-way street.
My trade scenario involves the Minnesota Vikings with the seventh pick.
Here is the trade, with chart values included.
Bills: Give up their first rounder (12th), second rounder (43rd), fourth rounder (111th) and seventh rounder (222nd). The total value points for this package is 1744.6 points.
Minnesota: Gives up their first rounder (7th), third rounder (72nd) and sixth rounder (182nd). total value for this 1748.6 points.
Why would Minnesota do this?: The Vikings have two major needs. One is a pass rushing DE and the other would be a top-ranked WR. For WR, Ginn, Bowe and Meacham would all the board at #12, which is more sensible than "reaching" for one at #7. With DE, either Jamal Anderson or Carriker are likely to be on the board as well. Without Minnesota having a sensible REASON to trade they wouldn't. To me, this is a sensible reason.
Why Buffalo would do this?: Adrain Peterson is simply THAT good. As I noted a couple of days ago, I saw a report on ESPN that his body fat % is only 4.5, so he's obviously in ridiculous shape. He also worked with Brady Quinn for two months and when his pro day came around, AP didnt drop a single pass. His hands are underated and weren't utilized at OU. lastly, can't remember what scout, but someone of prominence recently said AP has the best vision of any RB he's seen since Eric Dickerson more than 20 years ago. This guy is just a pure franchise RB. He would instantly make the entire offense better.
Knowing me, you know I'm never done.. So of course there is more.
With this trade: The Bills would then have THREE third round picks (#70, 72 and 92). The total value is 582 points. The value of No. 70 and 72 is 460 points.
If the Bills decided (and I certainly would) they wanted to get back into round two. They could package #70 and 72 together, which value-wise would put them back into the second round between picks 44-48. By doing this, they could target the best LB on the board and come away most likely with a Rufus Alexander or Stewart Bradley. They'd still have a late third rounder as well.
Or they can sit there with three third rounders and simply take the best three players on the board.
The drawback: Obviously by not landing a Willis or Beason, the defense for 2007 would suffer some.
The Positive: With a better OL, an emerging QB and a franchise WR, this offense could be sick. I"m talking one of the top 5 Offenses in the NFL sick. The Bills could have th ability to put 28 points up on any team in the league, which in turn takes a lot of pressure off the defense.
At the end of the day, I think its something that would have to be considered. AP is one of those special kind of players and if the cost to get a franchise player basically boils down to trading a second and a fourth for a third rounder while "swapping firsts", I think it's something you may need to do.