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SI: Breaking down misperceptions about draft prospects
It's that time again, folks. Time for one of the most anticipated events of the NFL draft season (at least by my editor). Time for GMs to go scurrying to their war rooms to reevaluate their draft boards.
It's the fifth annual Overrated/Underrated column.
For those new to this tradition, I choose one player at each position who I feel is overrated by the various draft analysts, prognosticators and others who rank prospects for a living, and one who is underrated. I'm sorry to inform you that this list is not based off hundreds of hours of film evaluation or scouring combine results. It's based on a far-simpler method: Watching college football.
Every year, scouts unnecessarily drag down a few perfectly qualified prospects and foolishly prop up others due to their insistence on emphasizing so many things besides actual college production. While it's certainly not the only measuring stick, you would think such a thing would carry more weight than how fast a guy runs the 40-yard dash in shorts in February.
Past editions of this column have produced their share of both hits and misses. It's too early to judge the results of last year's just yet, though I definitely screwed up that Laurence Maroney bit. I'll go ahead and give myself some props for Marcus McNeill, though.
On to this year's crop, which, I must say, was the hardest one to do yet because ... I can't believe I'm saying this ... I think the scouts, for the most part, have it right. But there are exceptions.
Quarterback
Overrated: Brady Quinn, Notre Dame ( FILM ROOM)
Is Quinn worthy of a first-round pick? Absolutely. There's no slighting his productivity running Charlie Weis' pro-style offense the past two seasons. I just can't believe the Irish star is still being mentioned in the same breath as LSU's JaMarcus Russell. If you watched last year's Sugar Bowl, in which the two played on the same field, the difference was like night and day. (Or as one participant in the game told me, "Like high school vs. pee wee.")
Yes, Russell had the benefit of a better supporting cast, and yes, Quinn was facing a much tougher defense, but it was still painfully obvious that Russell was an elite-level prospect who made all sorts of ridiculous throws that neither Quinn nor any other college quarterback last year could dream of.
Whichever team winds up drafting Quinn is going to be getting a smart, skilled player who should succeed at the next level, but not some once-in-a-generation phenom you'd think about taking No. 1.
Underrated: Troy Smith, Ohio State ( FILM ROOM)
I've already devoted plentiful column space defending the plummeting Heisman winner. You can read that rant here. All I'll say here is that if Smith is truly considered a "late fourth-round" pick at this point, as SI.com's draft experts have billed him, then he can't get much more underrated than that.
Running Back
Overrated: Kenny Irons, Auburn ( FILM ROOM)
Irons' reputation was basically built during one particularly impressive six-game stretch toward the end of his junior season. He ran for 886 yards (nearly 150 per game) and eight touchdowns while carrying no fewer than 23 times in a contest.
Irons never came close to regaining that dominant form last season, barely gaining that many yards (893) over a full season. Injuries played a factor, causing him to miss two games and limiting him in others, but still he failed to exhibit the type of relentless running and make-you-miss moves of a guy who entered the season on most Heisman lists.
Teams that peg him as a future every-down NFL back will be taking a huge gamble that his one, glorious six-game run was the norm, not an exception.
Underrated: Michael Bush, Louisville ( FILM ROOM)
Talk about your costly injuries. A year ago, this guy was breathing down Adrian Peterson's neck as the top running back in this year's draft. Now, he's a sixth-rounder? Certainly, a broken leg is no small question mark, particularly since Bush just had a follow-up surgery last month to insert a new rod. But plenty of elite running backs have returned from devastating injuries to regained their previous form. If that happens in Bush's case, some lucky team is going to get a punishing, highly athletic runner who can be a beast in short-yardage and goal line situations (he scored 23 touchdowns as a junior).
Wide Receiver
Overrated: Dwayne Bowe, LSU ( FILM ROOM)
People have been drooling over this guy since the day he stepped foot on LSU's campus, and rightfully so, seeing as he's a strong, massive receiver who can get up and grab a jump ball. There's only one problem: He drops passes. Lots of them.
Much was made of his offseason LASIK surgery a year ago, and Bowe did cut down on his drops last year, but there were still some pretty big ones, most notably a wide-open touchdown against Florida that might have changed the course of what was then a 7-7 game (LSU wound up losing 23-10). He's a good receiver, one who had nearly 1,000 yards last season, but he was never quite as good as his lofty billing in college. Now he's being overhyped headed into the pros.
Underrated: Sidney Rice, South Carolina ( FILM ROOM)
For two straight years, Rice carried Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks offense on his back. One of those rare playmakers who can take over a game with only a couple of touches, he managed to rack up consecutive 1,000-yard seasons despite playing with average quarterbacks. Also, opposing defenses had to know Spurrier was going to try to get the ball to his star receiver at every possible opportunity.
Rice did come out after his redshirt sophomore year, perhaps raising concerns over whether he's ready to make the jump, but two full seasons as a primary receiver in the SEC is pretty substantial experience. You could easily justify ranking him higher than any receiver besides Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Jarrett.
See link for rest....................................
~The Answer