The Draft = Best guess

[Mitchy moo]

Injuries, poor choices with friends and possible drug influences can all derail any draft pick or great looking players. I wouldn't plan on everyone taken with the 15 picks to pan out, maybe a 3rd of them will do well at best.

Grading a draft now is like talking about your newborn son and his ability to run fast. He isn't on his feet yet, so let's give them a year or so.

[patmoran2006]

Message Board particpants are ALL armchair GM's.. Anyalyzing everything is the reason everyone logs on.

[Mitchy moo]

Message Board particpants are ALL armchair GM's.. Anyalyzing everything is the reason everyone logs on.

or to satisfy their physicological needs.

[Statman]

Injuries, poor choices with friends and possible drug influences can all derail any draft pick or great looking players. I wouldn't plan on everyone taken with the 15 picks to pan out, maybe a 3rd of them will do well at best.

Grading a draft now is like talking about your newborn son and his ability to run fast. He isn't on his feet yet, so let's give them a year or so.
Agreed.

But what you can do is begin matching up where guys will fit.

Obviously going without any help on D besides Pos means that our D isn't likely to improve beyond his impact, whatever it is. That's an easy argument.

It's also an easy argument to suggest that our 3rd rounder probably won't see any playing time unless Losman goes down which ushers in an entirely new set of problems and perhaps reasons as to why.

You can say the same for our 4th rounder. If he gets substantial playing time then we have to begin questioning the drafting of Lynch who at 12th overall really needs to step into the role of full-time ball carrier sometime fairly soon. You don't draft a RB at 12th to share carries for ten years. That's plan-B.

Why should our 6th rounder get any kind of playing time unless either Whitner or Simpson goes down?

So while you are correct about individual performance, team performance can be somewhat predicted using the law of averages and some general analysis.

[John Doe]

Agreed.

But what you can do is begin matching up where guys will fit.

Obviously going without any help on D besides Pos means that our D isn't likely to improve beyond his impact, whatever it is. That's an easy argument.

It's also an easy argument to suggest that our 3rd rounder probably won't see any playing time unless Losman goes down which ushers in an entirely new set of problems and perhaps reasons as to why.

You can say the same for our 4th rounder. If he gets substantial playing time then we have to begin questioning the drafting of Lynch who at 12th overall really needs to step into the role of full-time ball carrier sometime fairly soon. You don't draft a RB at 12th to share carries for ten years. That's plan-B.

Why should our 6th rounder get any kind of playing time unless either Whitner or Simpson goes down?

So while you are correct about individual performance, team performance can be somewhat predicted using the law of averages and some general analysis.

Your premise that it is misguided to acquire depth, great special teams players, and to keep an eye on the future... Is misguided.