ESPN/Kiper Chat Wrap 05/02

[The Answer]

Brad (Rochester, NY): What do you think of the Bills drafting Edwards? Should they have gone with a CB, or was Edwards a value pick at the end of round 3?

http://assets.espn.go.com/i/sn2.gif Mel Kiper: He was a very good value pick, but I wasn't thrilled with that pick, even though he's a good value pick. Taking the young QB when you have a young QB baffles me. You have Losman. If he plays well, Edwards will never see the field. It will take a couple of years before you feel comfortable with him as your backup. They lost a lot of guys in the off season. They didn't get a corner. What they have to hope for is Ashton Youboty stepping into that corner spot. They could have used that pick for Fred Bennett, Brandon McDonald, Tarell Brown, Daymeion Hughes. There are some corners they could have gotten there.

http://assets.espn.go.com/i/sn2.gif Mel Kiper: Edwards had a much higher grade than those guys, though. He did have a very good grade. They could have gotten Michael Bush to be in there with Lynch. They could have had Antonio Pittman. They did draft Wright, who I like. If he can stay healthy, he can be a good 1-2 punch with Lynch. Overall, I gave them a B.

Ben (Mobile AL): What did you think of Ginn going so early? Could they just not find anyone to trade down with or were they worried others felt as strong about his NFL talents?

http://assets.espn.go.com/i/sn2.gif Mel Kiper: Nobody in the top 13 were able to trade down. Teams just don't want to give up draft picks any more. And they don't want to pay the money. Teams are treating this draft a lot differently. They're not giving away the draft picks and big money. They'll do it later in the round, but not in the top 10. So, Miami had to make a pick. He does have some speed to burn. More so than Ted Ginn, John Beck is going to be compared to Brady Quinn.

Lee (Dallas, TX): How about your top 5 and bottom 5 drafts from the weekend?

http://assets.espn.go.com/i/sn2.gif Mel Kiper: The top 5 in order: San Francisco, Cleveland, Minnesota, Carolina and the fifth would be Pittsburgh.

http://assets.espn.go.com/i/sn2.gif Mel Kiper: The bottom five: Tennessee, Houston, Washington, Philadelphia and the Giants.

Branson (Chesapeake Beach, Maryland): Any players suprise you that didn't get drafted this past weekend?

http://assets.espn.go.com/i/sn2.gif Mel Kiper: Jared Zabransky, Toby Korrody, Matt Moore, Darius Walker, Rhema McKnight, Renardo Foster, Tim Duckworth, Enoka Lucas, Nu'u Tafisi, Justin Hickman, David Patterson, Nate Harris, Rory Johnson, Juwan Simpson, KaMichael Hall, Kenny Scott, Duwane Coleman, DeAndre Jackson, Patrick Ghee, Antwan Stewart, Brandon Sharp, Matt Clark, Kody Bliss.

Josh (Sheboygan, WI): Mel, what were your top 5 reaches from the draft? Who were your top 5 steals?

http://assets.espn.go.com/i/sn2.gif Mel Kiper: The reaches in the draft were, in no specific order: Gerald Alexander in the second round to Detroit, Brannon Condren in the fourth round to Indianapolis, Clint Oldenburg in the fifth round to New England, Usama Young in the third round to New Orleans, John Bowie to Oakland in the fourth round, Kevin Kolb in the second the Philadelphia, Craig Davis to San Diego in the first round, Michael Griffin in the first, Chris Henry in the second to Arizona.

Joe (Decatur, GA): Who are some of the guys who will make immediate impacts given where they landed?

http://assets.espn.go.com/i/sn2.gif Mel Kiper: Calvin Johnson, we know he'll have a big impact. Joe Thomas should start right off the bat. Normally, the guys that you can expect the most impact from are the RBs and the hybrids, the DE/OLB. Marshawn Lynch will have a great opportunity to be their feature back. Anthony Spencer has a good chance to be the defensive rookie of the year.


Tom (Boston): Mel, what about your top 5 steals??

http://assets.espn.go.com/i/sn2.gif Mel Kiper: TE Ben Patrick in the 7th round to Arizona. CB Chris Houston to Atlanta in the second. LB Paul Posluszny to Buffalo in the second. WR Dwayne Jarrett to Carolina in the second. OL Ryan Kalil to Carolina in the second. DL Charles Johnson in the third to Carolina. TE Greg Olsen to Chicago in the first. OL Josh Beekman to Chicago in the fourth. Leon Hall to Cincinnati in the first. Brady Quinn to Cleveland at pick No. 22. Eric Wright to Cleveland in the second round. Mason Crosby to Green Bay in the sixth round. Sidney Rice to Minnesota in the second round. Adrian Peterson to Minnesota at pick 7. Aundrae Allison to Minnesota in the fifth round. David Harris to the Jets in the second round. Michael Bush to Oakland in the fourth round. Dallas Baker to Pittsburgh in the seventh round. Joe Staley to San Francisco at the end of the first round. Tarell Brown to San Francisco in the fifth round. Courtney Taylor to Seattle in the sixth round. Tanard Jackson to Tampa in the fourth round.


rob (FL): Why did LB Brandon Siler of Florida drop to the 7th round? He played great for the National Champs, never got in trouble and was projected to go much higher.

http://assets.espn.go.com/i/sn2.gif Mel Kiper: I thought he'd be a fourth round pick. I was never as high on Siler as some were. His stats were inflated because he played behind a great defensive line. I always thought he was a little overrated. It surprised me a little that he lasted to the seventh, but I wasn't shocked.

http://assets.espn.go.com/i/sn2.gif Mel Kiper: And he was also on my list of overrated players.


Eric (NY): Hi Mel, did the Jets give up too much to get Revis at 14 and your thoughts on David Harris?

http://assets.espn.go.com/i/sn2.gif Mel Kiper: They had no lead corner on this team. No No. 1 corner. They had to have it. There are only two corners that were rated above the rest - Hall and Revis. Once he ran a 4.39 at his pro day, he moved up on a lot of peoples' boards. They also moved up in the second round to get David Harris who should be an ideal LB for their scheme. Plus they only had three picks. They also got a kid in the sixth round who I thought could have gone a little higher than that. He's a good developmental OL prospect. When you can get an elite corner and a quality ILB for their defense, I don't have a problem with what they did.

~The Answer

[clumping platelets]

Nobody in the top 13 were able to trade down. Teams just don't want to give up draft picks any more. And they don't want to pay the money.

If this was true in 2007, was it not true in 2006? It's likely the Bills couldn't trade down last year and had to make a selection but were criticized for not trading down.....Miami gets a pass on that :rolleyes:

[FinFaninBuffalo]

If this was true in 2007, was it not true in 2006? It's likely the Bills couldn't trade down last year and had to make a selection but were criticized for not trading down.....Miami gets a pass on that :rolleyes:

The difference is that there were two guys that were targeted by several teams (Leinart and Cutler) as players they wanted to move up to get. There were rumors that Denver tried to move up into the top 10 and could not get a deal done. Arizona was clearly staying at 10 once Leinart dropped. Once Oakland passed on the two remaining QBs (which they are still getting slammed for), Denver began trying to move up. Picks 8 and 9 were the obvious targets. They ended up moving to pick 11, just 3 picks after Buffalo, so there is some validity to the rumor.

If Calvin Johnson, Jamarcus Russell, or Joe Thomas had fallen out of the top 5, you would have seen teams trying to move up. Kiper isn't even correct on his stated for this draft. In fact, once Miami passed on Quinn, Cleveland began calling teams. This is from a USAToday article:


While Quinn had been tumbling through the first round, Savage had been trying to strike a deal since the Buffalo Bills' slot with the 12th pick.

Once again there is a valid report that the Bills had an offer to trade down and refused. This years draft for the Bill was remarkably similar to last years. Reported offers to trade down with their first pick (and accumulate additional quality picks) and a trade up to get their second player (while giving up quality picks). Clearly the Bills could have 2 additional players drafted in the 2nd round and 2 additional players drafted in the 3rd round on their roster. That would have filled a lot of holes on the roster. Would that have made them better? Nobody has any idea.

[Goobylal]

If this was true in 2007, was it not true in 2006? It's likely the Bills couldn't trade down last year and had to make a selection but were criticized for not trading down.....Miami gets a pass on that :rolleyes:
I think Kiper is saying that he's now changed his mind about things like what happened with the Bills last year. IOW, he was wrong. And the next thing to change is the draft value chart. Teams don't seem to be following it, because the points given-up don't correlate much anymore.

FFiB: Sure Cleveland offered a trade to the Bills, but it involved dropping all the way out of the 1st round, picking-up an early 2nd rounder, and a 1st rounder next year. Not worth it, considering the Bills had a need at RB and Lynch right where they wanted him (and he was going to be gone at #16 to GB, despite what the "experts" would have you believe). None of the other RB's were that great IMHO and all to me look like backups. As it turned out, they got 2 of the 3 top-rated guys (obviously outside of guys like Calvin Johnson and maybe Gaines Adams), and while I didn't like the fact that they gave-up their 1st-3rd round pick, again as I mentioned above, the draft value chart seems to be going out the window.

[Saratoga Slim]

FFiB: Sure Cleveland offered a trade to the Bills, but it involved dropping all the way out of the 1st round, picking-up an early 2nd rounder, and a 1st rounder next year. Not worth it, considering the Bills had a need at RB and Lynch right where they wanted him (and he was going to be gone at #16 to GB, despite what the "experts" would have you believe). None of the other RB's were that great IMHO and all to me look like backups. As it turned out, they got 2 of the 3 top-rated guys (obviously outside of guys like Calvin Johnson and maybe Gaines Adams), and while I didn't like the fact that they gave-up their 1st-3rd round pick, again as I mentioned above, the draft value chart seems to be going out the window.

I think you're right. When we couldn't get a Turner deal done, Lynch was the only legitimate option for a primary RB. As we all saw, no way AP was going to fall to 12. Plus, as you say, Cleveland had already used their 1st rounder, so obviously any thing they offered would result in us not having a 1st round pick. I would not have been happy about not having a 1st rounder at all this year.

[Goobylal]

Only the draft geeks get caught-up in trading, just for trading's sake. And none of these guys have ANY accountability when it comes to picks, because they aren't employed by teams and thus bear no responsibility for how they perform. I got a laugh out of Todd McShay claiming that Lynch was a character risk, basically saying that HE knew more about Lynch's background than the team who was going to invest millions in him did. I also found the "he doesn't want to be in Buffalo" tripe hilarious, considering Lynch is smiling from ear-to-ear in every picture you see (if anything, Poz seems more like he doesn't want to be in Buffalo, but I think he's just reserved) and he's bringing his mother and brother with him.

[Mike13]

How was Lynch a "character risk?"

[FinFaninBuffalo]

FFiB: Sure Cleveland offered a trade to the Bills, but it involved dropping all the way out of the 1st round, picking-up an early 2nd rounder, and a 1st rounder next year. Not worth it, considering the Bills had a need at RB and Lynch right where they wanted him (and he was going to be gone at #16 to GB, despite what the "experts" would have you believe). None of the other RB's were that great IMHO and all to me look like backups. As it turned out, they got 2 of the 3 top-rated guys (obviously outside of guys like Calvin Johnson and maybe Gaines Adams), and while I didn't like the fact that they gave-up their 1st-3rd round pick, again as I mentioned above, the draft value chart seems to be going out the window.

I never said that the Bills should have done it. I was just refuting Kiper's claim that teams do not try to move up to the top 13 of the draft. Clearly Cleveland tried to do that. Cleveland gave up a lot to move to the 22nd spot in the first. I can only imagine what they would have given up to move all the way to #12 (maybe Cleveland's 3rd round pick). It is quite possible that the picks received from Cleveland could have been used to trade for Michael Turner. Cleveland's 3rd round pick this year and Cleveland's first round pick next year may have been enough. Buffalo would have kept Cleveland's 2nd round pick (and perhaps more) in the deal.

Obviously this is all speculation, but which would you rather have Lynch or Turner plus an additional early pick?

I find it very funny that so many draft "experts", both on TV and posting on message boards chant the mantra "draft best player available" before the draft and then evaluate every pick based on whether it fills a need. It makes no sense.

How do you figure the Bills got 2 of the 3 top rated guys? Lynch and Pos were not rated anywhere near the top of the draft. Both were considered in the 15 - 25 range.