The State of Our Defense

[ShadowHawk7]

This is in response to a OpIv post that attacked another post that said that our new LB corps should be better than our previous LB corps. He then proceeded to call this homerism and stated that our defense would be worse on the Dline, Secondary and between the two.

I hate to, but I agree with OpIv at least for the LB part.

Only the staunchest homer could say that Spikes-Fletch-Crowell is worse or equal to Ellison-Poz-Crowell. Of course in the future, our combo should be better, but right now, we're lacking in terms of outstanding starting talent AND depth at LB.

However, I strongly believe that part of this problem will be offset with a improved DLine this year, with additions of McCargo, Walker, and even Manny Wright or LaRon Harris to the DT rotation, paired with our strong DEnds and hopeful loss of Tim Anderson.

Then you take a look at CB. Overrated or not, we are now worse at CB then we were before we lost Nate Clements, and we haven't made any moves to fix it.
However the Clements loss may be countered by two things:

1. Development of Ashton Youboty
2. 2nd year jump of our safeties Whitner and Simpson.

Therefore, the arguement could be made that our defense had two positions where we got worse: CB and LB, and two positions where we got better: DT and S. It is very possible then, that these changes could balance out in the present, and swing in our favor in the future. Of course it's possible that I'm wrong about that, but I've tried to be as non-homer as I can.

So with our defense balancing out, or at least, getting close, we move towards the offense.
Only the staunchest pessimist could argue that our Offense has not gotten better this offseason. We have gotten better through three things.

1. Continued development of JP, and insurance in Edwards.
2. Turning our RBs from a weakness to a strength by adding Lynch and Wright.
3. Bolstering two positions on the Oline: LG, and RT/RG, and adding depth with Whittle.

Therefore, the arguement can be made that while the defense may not have improved, it hasn't gotten much worse, and the offense HAS improved, straight up.
Because of this, we have improved as a team since the end of 2006.
:respect:
To make it even easier:
Offense 07 > Offense 06
Defense 07 = Defense (or close to)

Bills 07 > Bills 06

[Mr. Miyagi]

Good analysis. :bf1:

[OpIv37]

How did the DL improve against the RUN? Walker may help with the pass rush but he isn't really better than what we have.

And McCargo wasn't exactly impressive before he got hurt, and now he's also been injured two years in a row. The DL is virtually the same.

[ShadowHawk7]

Thanks, I seriously think this should be our outlook until something changes/happens.

To Op, this may sound homeristic, but I saw vast improvement in McCargo's 4th and 5th game before he got injured. It looked as if he was holding more than is own. Before that, I competely agree with you. Remember a penetrating DT is good for more than just sacking QBs.
They disrupt blocking schemes and reach the running back behind the LOS rather than just meeting him there like the fat ass run stoppers do. By penetrating and creating holes, it allows for LBs to shoot the gaps and meet the RB at the LOS, instead of 2-3 yards down the field.
With this being the strength of McCargo, Walker, and Tripp, KW's ability to anchor against bigger blockers, the addition of Wright that could potentially add to our run stopping ability, I'd say we're better here than before.

McCargo hasn't been given a full opportunity to prove his abilites, this year, he will, and I say odds are, he'll help us out considerably in stopping the run.

[The King]

Lets let the situation with Briggs get ugly and take another look.

[mysticsoto]

How did the DL improve against the RUN? Walker may help with the pass rush but he isn't really better than what we have.

And McCargo wasn't exactly impressive before he got hurt, and now he's also been injured two years in a row. The DL is virtually the same.

The DL improves automatically by the removal of Tim Anderson in the rotation!

[OpIv37]

The DL improves automatically by the removal of Tim Anderson in the rotation!

I'll give you that, however, Tim Anderson is so bad that it's possible to be better than him and still completely suck.

[Romes]

I don't think you can include Spikes in our LB core for the past two years. The real question is Ellison-Pos-Crowell better than Ellsion-Fletcher-Crowell. The answer is still that it is worse but not by much and it may even be better by mid-season.

[EDS]

Thanks, I seriously think this should be our outlook until something changes/happens.

To Op, this may sound homeristic, but I saw vast improvement in McCargo's 4th and 5th game before he got injured. It looked as if he was holding more than is own. Before that, I competely agree with you. Remember a penetrating DT is good for more than just sacking QBs.
They disrupt blocking schemes and reach the running back behind the LOS rather than just meeting him there like the fat ass run stoppers do. By penetrating and creating holes, it allows for LBs to shoot the gaps and meet the RB at the LOS, instead of 2-3 yards down the field.
With this being the strength of McCargo, Walker, and Tripp, KW's ability to anchor against bigger blockers, the addition of Wright that could potentially add to our run stopping ability, I'd say we're better here than before.

McCargo hasn't been given a full opportunity to prove his abilites, this year, he will, and I say odds are, he'll help us out considerably in stopping the run.

This is not entirely true. If the DT penetrates into the backfield he either needs to tackle the ball carrier or redirect him to have any impact in the play, because once the DT is through the line the blockers can double up on the LB.

McCargo is pretty much an unknown at this point because he was injured for the bulk of last season and is being asked to switch DT spots (he backed up Triplett last year).

I am not saying this can't work to the Bills favor, just that there are still lots of question marks.

[alohabillsfan]

The run defense will never be great in this type of defense period! What we need is a more productive offense that forces teams to abandon the run ala Indy! Lets hope for continued improvement with this years draft!!!

[OpIv37]

The run defense will never be great in this type of defense period!

That's why I hate this whole defensive system. The way to win football games is to run and stop the run. We should be able to run the ball better this year- stopping the run is a different story. If the D can't get off the field, it means a) they'll get tired and eventually give up a score and b) the offense is on the bench and doesn't have the opportunity to score.

[kernowboy]

Spikes-Fletcher-Crowell were nothing to shout about.

Spikes has never really recovered. Fletcher was over rated, statistically great but never making a real impact.

Posluzny is an upgrade. I also feel the depth that Stammer and Haggan bring is under rated. We suffered last year from the starters and MLB/SLB backups being injured. Lightning rarely strikes twice

[OpIv37]

I also feel the depth that Stammer and Haggan bring is under rated.

wow, you're generally not a homer but that's definitely a homer statement. These guys have never done anything on D and are mostly on the roster for ST abilities.

[justasportsfan]

In terms of talent, our D is most likely not as good as it was last year. In terms of experience, definitely gonna be better.

Whether better understanding of the cover 2 by our vets and 1 year of experience by our rookies from last year is enough to make up for the loss of Clements and Fletcher are enough , only time will tell. MY guess is , yes.

[thecoordinator]

i think the Bills are doing a solid job building for the future. but the future aint this year. spikes, fletcher and clements combined for 244 tackles, 7 INT and 26 passes defensed in 07. i don't expect a rookie, a 2nd year 6th rounder and a 2nd year 3rd rounder who is essentially a rookie to match those numbers this season.

[HHURRICANE]

I think this is way too comlicated. Here:

Better on the DL.
Even on the secondary.
Worse at LB.

[alohabillsfan]

That's why I hate this whole defensive system. The way to win football games is to run and stop the run. We should be able to run the ball better this year- stopping the run is a different story. If the D can't get off the field, it means a) they'll get tired and eventually give up a score and b) the offense is on the bench and doesn't have the opportunity to score.


That work so well for Indy?

[OpIv37]

That work so well for Indy?

Indy skates by because they have an incredible offense than we do and better personnel for the cover 2 than we do. The system only works with an O that's capable of taking financial pressure off. When we can routinely score in the high 20's or more, then start talking about Indy comparisons.

[The last buffalo fan]

I loved that combo, Spikes-Fletcher-Crowell. But it was back in the first 6 games in 2005. The 2006 version, was even worse than one of the last 10 games back in 2005.

I never have been in a real game, but what I can see at the tv (games tapes, highlights, etc) from our LB reserves (skills, athletics, etc), is way far better than the abuse our first team LB corps had last season. I know that none of those reserves, couldn't unseat our stars, but with their "names", salary, "experience" and new coaches on the team, no one in earth could do that either.

I'm not sold on our new defense, but I truly expect that our new and younger team, play their butt and hearth out. Our last year LBs were old, and injured.

[ddaryl]

The real question is Ellison-Pos-Crowell better than Ellsion-Fletcher-Crowell. The answer is still that it is worse but not by much and it may even be better by mid-season.


When you look at our LB from this angle then I have to say that the 2007 statrting LB crew is about equal with the 2006 crew. Crowell is solid, Ellison should be better this year with another camp and year experience starting.

The Poz to Fletcher comparison looks like this to me. Poz is bigger and stronger. Fletcher has the experience. We lose experience but gain a player who might be better capable of taking on lead blockers and linemen. But it will take Poz some time to gain expeirience and that were we lose some ground in comparing the starting 2006 LB's to starting 2007 LB's. Otherwise it's not much different then last season.

depth was weak last year and appears to be weak again.

We will see weaknesses on D again this year, but hopefully as the year grinds on the D will start to gel and improve, kind of the way our O did last year.

[ShadowHawk7]

This is not entirely true. If the DT penetrates into the backfield he either needs to tackle the ball carrier or redirect him to have any impact in the play, because once the DT is through the line the blockers can double up on the LB.

McCargo is pretty much an unknown at this point because he was injured for the bulk of last season and is being asked to switch DT spots (he backed up Triplett last year).

I am not saying this can't work to the Bills favor, just that there are still lots of question marks.
Indeed, that is true. However I'd rather attack thru the line than build the Great Wall of China and just wait for the RB at the LOS. I'd say more often than not, if McCargo can force his way though the line into the backfield, he'll be able to disrupt the running back's plan of attack.

[EDS]

Indeed, that is true. However I'd rather attack thru the line than build the Great Wall of China and just wait for the RB at the LOS. I'd say more often than not, if McCargo can force his way though the line into the backfield, he'll be able to disrupt the running back's plan of attack.

I tend to disagree.

I think it is much harder to build a defense that relies on penetration to stop the run. The two examples of the cover 2 defense actually working well are Tampa Bay and Chicago. Each was successful because they had the absolute perfect pro-bowl caliber personnel (Tampa - Sapp, Brooks, Lynch; Barber; Chicago - Harris, Uhrlacher, Briggs). Absent those perfect conditions the cover 2 defense - as demonstrated by the other teams running that scheme - has resulted in opponents gaining big chunks of yardage on the ground.

Now some people will use the Colts as an example of how you can win with a non-dominant cover-2 defense, but Colts are not comparable to any other team in the NFL because they have one of the two or three best offenses in NFL history. The Bills, while improving, aren't there.

Again, McCargo is a complete unknown given his limited playing time, injuries and switch to a new position. He could be great, but we really have no idea at this point. On top of that, it really is the other DT position that is supposed to get penetration on this defense - so we are dependent on Walker and Triplett in that area.

I would much rather have two DT's who completely clog up interior running lanes then two DT's that can penetrate. NE's defense generally does fairly well not because of Harrison or Brushi, but because of the three monsters they have on the DL (Seymour, Warrent and Wilfork). Same with Jacksonville (Henderson and Stroud). Baltimore and the Bills have had huge success in recent years with planet size DT's occupying blockers and freeing up linebackers to do the damage (Adams and Siragusa, and Williams and Adams, respectively).

I really think the success of the Bills defense will be based on three things: (1) How well the offense can sustain drives, control the clock and keep the opposition in a passing mode; (2) McCargo - because none of the other DTs have the talent to become exceptional; and (3) Poz - because the Bills need a playmaking linebacker in the mold of a pre-inury TKO.

[jpdex12]

This is in response to a OpIv post that attacked another post that said that our new LB corps should be better than our previous LB corps. He then proceeded to call this homerism and stated that our defense would be worse on the Dline, Secondary and between the two.

I hate to, but I agree with OpIv at least for the LB part.

Only the staunchest homer could say that Spikes-Fletch-Crowell is worse or equal to Ellison-Poz-Crowell. Of course in the future, our combo should be better, but right now, we're lacking in terms of outstanding starting talent AND depth at LB.

However, I strongly believe that part of this problem will be offset with a improved DLine this year, with additions of McCargo, Walker, and even Manny Wright or LaRon Harris to the DT rotation, paired with our strong DEnds and hopeful loss of Tim Anderson.

Then you take a look at CB. Overrated or not, we are now worse at CB then we were before we lost Nate Clements, and we haven't made any moves to fix it.
However the Clements loss may be countered by two things:

1. Development of Ashton Youboty
2. 2nd year jump of our safeties Whitner and Simpson.

Therefore, the arguement could be made that our defense had two positions where we got worse: CB and LB, and two positions where we got better: DT and S. It is very possible then, that these changes could balance out in the present, and swing in our favor in the future. Of course it's possible that I'm wrong about that, but I've tried to be as non-homer as I can.

So with our defense balancing out, or at least, getting close, we move towards the offense.
Only the staunchest pessimist could argue that our Offense has not gotten better this offseason. We have gotten better through three things.

1. Continued development of JP, and insurance in Edwards.
2. Turning our RBs from a weakness to a strength by adding Lynch and Wright.
3. Bolstering two positions on the Oline: LG, and RT/RG, and adding depth with Whittle.

Therefore, the arguement can be made that while the defense may not have improved, it hasn't gotten much worse, and the offense HAS improved, straight up.
Because of this, we have improved as a team since the end of 2006.
:respect:
To make it even easier:
Offense 07 > Offense 06
Defense 07 = Defense (or close to)

Bills 07 > Bills 06

Why don't we wait until the mid season or end of the saeason to make an accurate assessment? Hence the term "accurrate".

[ShadowHawk7]

Alright, sounds good, I guess we can just stop posting till week 8 then. See you all then!