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I've been wasting too much time arguing on this site, so I'm going to make a few comments, break the team down by position, predict our W/L record and then I'm done. I'll probably be posting in the other forums, but in here I'll mainly be lurking to keep up with Bills news and maybe making a non-controversial comment or two. But I'm done arguing threads out for 12 pages- it never resolves anything.
Some of you will dismiss my comments as pessimism because my conclusions will not be what you want to hear about our team. Believe me, I wish I could conclude differently, but given the information available at this time, these are the most accurate predictions in my opinion. Contrary to popular belief on here, I'm NOT negative just to be negative- I'm negative right now because I'm trying to be as accurate as possible with my predictions and expectations, and unfortunately things are not where most of us want them to be.
Frankly, I'm surprised at the reactions I get on here sometimes because I don't claim to have any superior football knowledge or inside information- most of what I say seems pretty obvious and I don't understand why so many people get upset about it.
And as Wys pointed out earlier, if the concerns of the so-called "pessimist" manifest themselves on the field, that person is actually a realist.
So, here goes:
Offense:
QB: Last year, Losman had high points and low points. The good news is that most of the low points were early in the season and most of the high points were later in the season (Baltimore being the notable exception), which shows improvement. If Losman can continue to protect the ball well, use his speed more, and improve on the short pass, he'll be fine. I'm really not too concerned about this position.
RB: Last year, Thomas and McGahee combined for 1378 yards. There is little reason to believe that Thomas and Lynch won't be able to combine for a hell of a lot more than that, especially with the improvements to the OL. I don't know what to think of Wright, but having him won't hurt. Barring injury, I think there is a really good chance we improved this position.
WR: Lee Evans is establishing himself as an elite WR. Beyond him, we have a bunch of #3's pretending to be #2's. The good news here is that we won't be WORSE than last year because it's the same guys, but if the OL gives JP time hopefully someone like Price or Reed will FINALLY step up.
TE: I'm not satisfied with this position at all, but the TE hasn't been used effectively in Buffalo for years so maybe we can get around it. And again, if the OL steps up, maybe someone can improve.
OL: Dockery alone makes this unit better. The right side is a little shaky with Preston, but there are a lot of young guys on this team (Merz, Butler, Pennington) who could step up if he or Walker falter. There is actually decent (albeit young) depth here. While this unit isn't perfect, it's improved and should allow us to make better use of our skill guys on O.
Overall, the OL should allow us to make better use of our offensive weapons and the offense, while it won't rival the Colts or the Pats, should be a lot more effective this year.
Defense:
DL: Wow, what a cluster****. If Walker signs he'll make the rotation better and help in the pass rush, but won't really help the run. If Walker doesn't sign, then the only difference between last year's crap-tacular OL and this year's is McCargo. And he's coming off an injury and might not be ready to go. If there is one thing Bills fans agree on, it's that Tim Anderson blows and if he's still in the rotation, it's a REALLY bad sign. With Walker and McCargo, this unit is mildly improved- without one or both, it's virtually the same as last year: not good enough.
LB: We lost two starters. I like Poz but I have a feeling it will take him some time to adjust to the NFL and Fletcher's experience will be missed. We lost Spikes and the argument here is that he wasn't good enough last year. Well, what reason is there to believe his replacement is any better? Crowell is decent but not spectacular. I don't know why everyone here has a hard-on for Ellison, he wasn't bad, but he was on the field more because we had no one else then because he was so great. And we have no depth at all- if Haggan and Wire are so great, how come they couldn't even beat out Ellison or the supposedly bad Spikes to get on the field? If there is a good thing, it's that this unit is younger and faster. But the lack of experience and lack of depth make this unit very questionable.
CB: McGee has played one good year at CB out of 3. K Thomas is a 7 year vet with 0 career INT's. Youboty played 1 game at nickel. Now, Clements was overrated but he was still good. Youboty might end up being great, but it's COMPLETELY unrealistic to expect Youboty and/or K Thomas to step in for Clements with no noticable drop off in play, at least initially. Youboty might be better than Clements eventually, but he won't be on Week 1 of 2007.
S: Simpson and Whitner are fine, although Simpson was out of position a lot last year and needs to correct that. Wendling is a freakish athlete. The depth here is a little weak, but at least the starters are solid.
Some people are counting on a lot of improvement from the 2nd year guys. While chances are some will improve, it is unrealistic to think 1 year of experience amongst 5 guys is enough to compensate for the loss of 3 vet starters and turn the 28th ranked run D into a formidable unit.
ST: Roscoe Parrish needs to be smarter on punt returns. This unit should be solid and possibly dominant.
Coaching: Jauron had the team well prepared for games last year, but his in-game decision making needs to get better. He still has a lot to prove.
Sun. 9/9 DENVER BRONCOS L
Sun. 9/16 @ Pittsburgh Steelers W
Sun. 9/23 @ New England Patriots L
Sun. 9/30 NEW YORK JETS CBS W
Mon. 10/8 DALLAS COWBOYS ESPN L
BYE 10/14 BYE BYE L (j/k)
Sun. 10/21 BALTIMORE RAVENS L
Sun. 10/28 @ New York Jets L
Sun. 11/4 CINCINNATI BENGALS W
Sun. 11/11 @ Miami Dolphins W
Sun. 11/18 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS L
Sun. 11/25 @ Jacksonville Jaguars L
Sun. 12/2 @ Washington Redskins L
Sun. 12/9 MIAMI DOLPHINS CBS W
Sun. 12/16 @ Cleveland Browns W
Sun. 12/23 NEW YORK GIANTS W
Sun. 12/30 @ Philadelphia Eagles L
Best Bets: We beat the Dolphins in December, we drop 2 to the Patriots
So, I think it looks like another 7-9 year. There is some room for fluctuation in there- I could see us losing to the Steelers and/or Bengals, but I could also see us getting to play Philly's scrubs and winning in the last week of the season.
SUMMARY:
If JP can be consistent and the OL is improved, the offense will make better use of their weapons and be a better unit. When compared to last year, the OL got better and we didn't lose anyone of note, so no position is clearly worse.
On D, the youth and inexperience will show and this unit will struggle. Depending on what happens with McCargo and Walker and at the CB position, this unit could be downright awful again. CB and LB are worse, the DL (which was horrid) is unchanged from last year, and the Safeties are unchanged (which is fine- they weren't the problem).
ST should be fine.
Jauron still has a lot to prove.
7-9 record.
I'm not saying this is the only possible outcome. I'm saying that given the information we have at this time, I feel this is the most likely outcome for this season.
Feel free to tear this apart, but I won't be responding- I've said my piece and I've given the reasons for my opinions. I'm done getting in pointless, endless arguments on this board.
Did anyone actually read all that?
Some of you will dismiss my comments as pessimism because my conclusions will not be what you want to hear about our team. Believe me, I wish I could conclude differently, but given the information available at this time, these are the most accurate predictions in my opinion. Contrary to popular belief on here, I'm NOT negative just to be negative- I'm negative right now because I'm trying to be as accurate as possible with my predictions and expectations, and unfortunately things are not where most of us want them to be.
Frankly, I'm surprised at the reactions I get on here sometimes because I don't claim to have any superior football knowledge or inside information- most of what I say seems pretty obvious and I don't understand why so many people get upset about it.
And as Wys pointed out earlier, if the concerns of the so-called "pessimist" manifest themselves on the field, that person is actually a realist.
So, here goes:
Offense:
QB: Last year, Losman had high points and low points. The good news is that most of the low points were early in the season and most of the high points were later in the season (Baltimore being the notable exception), which shows improvement. If Losman can continue to protect the ball well, use his speed more, and improve on the short pass, he'll be fine. I'm really not too concerned about this position.
RB: Last year, Thomas and McGahee combined for 1378 yards. There is little reason to believe that Thomas and Lynch won't be able to combine for a hell of a lot more than that, especially with the improvements to the OL. I don't know what to think of Wright, but having him won't hurt. Barring injury, I think there is a really good chance we improved this position.
WR: Lee Evans is establishing himself as an elite WR. Beyond him, we have a bunch of #3's pretending to be #2's. The good news here is that we won't be WORSE than last year because it's the same guys, but if the OL gives JP time hopefully someone like Price or Reed will FINALLY step up.
TE: I'm not satisfied with this position at all, but the TE hasn't been used effectively in Buffalo for years so maybe we can get around it. And again, if the OL steps up, maybe someone can improve.
OL: Dockery alone makes this unit better. The right side is a little shaky with Preston, but there are a lot of young guys on this team (Merz, Butler, Pennington) who could step up if he or Walker falter. There is actually decent (albeit young) depth here. While this unit isn't perfect, it's improved and should allow us to make better use of our skill guys on O.
Overall, the OL should allow us to make better use of our offensive weapons and the offense, while it won't rival the Colts or the Pats, should be a lot more effective this year.
Defense:
DL: Wow, what a cluster****. If Walker signs he'll make the rotation better and help in the pass rush, but won't really help the run. If Walker doesn't sign, then the only difference between last year's crap-tacular OL and this year's is McCargo. And he's coming off an injury and might not be ready to go. If there is one thing Bills fans agree on, it's that Tim Anderson blows and if he's still in the rotation, it's a REALLY bad sign. With Walker and McCargo, this unit is mildly improved- without one or both, it's virtually the same as last year: not good enough.
LB: We lost two starters. I like Poz but I have a feeling it will take him some time to adjust to the NFL and Fletcher's experience will be missed. We lost Spikes and the argument here is that he wasn't good enough last year. Well, what reason is there to believe his replacement is any better? Crowell is decent but not spectacular. I don't know why everyone here has a hard-on for Ellison, he wasn't bad, but he was on the field more because we had no one else then because he was so great. And we have no depth at all- if Haggan and Wire are so great, how come they couldn't even beat out Ellison or the supposedly bad Spikes to get on the field? If there is a good thing, it's that this unit is younger and faster. But the lack of experience and lack of depth make this unit very questionable.
CB: McGee has played one good year at CB out of 3. K Thomas is a 7 year vet with 0 career INT's. Youboty played 1 game at nickel. Now, Clements was overrated but he was still good. Youboty might end up being great, but it's COMPLETELY unrealistic to expect Youboty and/or K Thomas to step in for Clements with no noticable drop off in play, at least initially. Youboty might be better than Clements eventually, but he won't be on Week 1 of 2007.
S: Simpson and Whitner are fine, although Simpson was out of position a lot last year and needs to correct that. Wendling is a freakish athlete. The depth here is a little weak, but at least the starters are solid.
Some people are counting on a lot of improvement from the 2nd year guys. While chances are some will improve, it is unrealistic to think 1 year of experience amongst 5 guys is enough to compensate for the loss of 3 vet starters and turn the 28th ranked run D into a formidable unit.
ST: Roscoe Parrish needs to be smarter on punt returns. This unit should be solid and possibly dominant.
Coaching: Jauron had the team well prepared for games last year, but his in-game decision making needs to get better. He still has a lot to prove.
Sun. 9/9 DENVER BRONCOS L
Sun. 9/16 @ Pittsburgh Steelers W
Sun. 9/23 @ New England Patriots L
Sun. 9/30 NEW YORK JETS CBS W
Mon. 10/8 DALLAS COWBOYS ESPN L
BYE 10/14 BYE BYE L (j/k)
Sun. 10/21 BALTIMORE RAVENS L
Sun. 10/28 @ New York Jets L
Sun. 11/4 CINCINNATI BENGALS W
Sun. 11/11 @ Miami Dolphins W
Sun. 11/18 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS L
Sun. 11/25 @ Jacksonville Jaguars L
Sun. 12/2 @ Washington Redskins L
Sun. 12/9 MIAMI DOLPHINS CBS W
Sun. 12/16 @ Cleveland Browns W
Sun. 12/23 NEW YORK GIANTS W
Sun. 12/30 @ Philadelphia Eagles L
Best Bets: We beat the Dolphins in December, we drop 2 to the Patriots
So, I think it looks like another 7-9 year. There is some room for fluctuation in there- I could see us losing to the Steelers and/or Bengals, but I could also see us getting to play Philly's scrubs and winning in the last week of the season.
SUMMARY:
If JP can be consistent and the OL is improved, the offense will make better use of their weapons and be a better unit. When compared to last year, the OL got better and we didn't lose anyone of note, so no position is clearly worse.
On D, the youth and inexperience will show and this unit will struggle. Depending on what happens with McCargo and Walker and at the CB position, this unit could be downright awful again. CB and LB are worse, the DL (which was horrid) is unchanged from last year, and the Safeties are unchanged (which is fine- they weren't the problem).
ST should be fine.
Jauron still has a lot to prove.
7-9 record.
I'm not saying this is the only possible outcome. I'm saying that given the information we have at this time, I feel this is the most likely outcome for this season.
Feel free to tear this apart, but I won't be responding- I've said my piece and I've given the reasons for my opinions. I'm done getting in pointless, endless arguments on this board.
Did anyone actually read all that?
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