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This was written for a fantasy site. But the only part really dealing with fantasy football is at the end. The rest is comparing the two QBs since they entered the league and where they stand now in their progression:
Schauf: Manning or Losman in 2007?
By Matt Schauf
PFS Football
Back in 2004, plenty of people probably looked at the first quarterback taken and figured Eli Manning would be a stud -- or at least a very good player -- sooner than later. He had the pedigree, the talent, the same college coach his brother had learned under at Tennessee. On the flipside, the fourth and final quarterback taken in that first round must have elicited a collective "Who?" when he went to Buffalo. Supporters of J.P. Losman compared his style to that of Brett Favre, while detractors and neutral viewers could merely chuckle at the comparison. After three seasons, though, I think it's at least arguable which young passer will be the better fantasy (and real) quarterback in 2007.
Manning was the golden boy right from the start. He went to Archie's alma mater. He garnered Peyton's draft slot. He finagled his way from San Diego to the Big Apple with a John Elway-like "I don't wanna play there" decree. He stepped into a seemingly favorable situation with recent league MVP Kurt Warner to serve as starter and teacher until Manning was ready. That point came in the middle of his rookie year, when Manning took over a 5-4 team after consecutive losses and went 1-6 in seven starts the rest of the way.
You can't really blame Manning, though, for the team's rocky finish or his lackluster numbers that year: 48.2 completion percentage, six touchdowns, nine interceptions. A rookie quarterback is bound to struggle at least a little bit, and he gave particular reason for hope among Giants fans by posting QB ratings of more than 100 in two of the final three games.
The next year he started the whole way and looked like a solid young pro quarterback. He had some very productive outings, some other solid ones and a few terrible ones, finishing with a solid 24-17 TD-INT ratio but an unimpressive 52.8 completion percentage. Still, his continued development and the Giants' division title (despite a total team meltdown against Carolina in the playoffs, including three picks for Manning) gave more reason for hope.
Then came 2006 and a stall in Manning's progression. He upped his QB rating by just 1.1 points to 77.0 (19th among guys with at least eight starts) and he threw one more interception than the previous season in 35 fewer pass attempts. He did toss 24 touchdown passes again, which tied him for fourth in the league, but he had just four games with a QB rating of more than 90.0 compared with nine games at less than 80.0. He nearly balanced out his seven multi-TD games—just two of which came in the final 10 with six multi-INT games. He reached 300 yards passing just once (in the second game) while failing to reach 200 yards nine times.
At the same time, and about a seven-hour drive away, Losman joined the Bills behind Drew Bledsoe and promptly lost nearly his entire rookie season to a broken leg in training camp. Whatever he showed in late-season practices and his five in-game pass attempts, however, were enough for the Bills to release Bledsoe and go into 2005 with Losman under center and Kelly Holcomb as his backup.
Even though he had officially been in the league for a year already, Losman was essentially a rookie in 2005 and played like it. His 49.6 completion percentage was quite similar to that from Manning's rookie year, and he rode some streaky play (good and bad) to an 8-8 TD-INT ratio in eight starts and nine games total. Any natural new-guy shakiness that Losman might have produced that year anyway was only heightened by being jerked in and out of the lineup by the coaching staff, which also helped create a locker-room rift over who should be starting.
A year later, Losman had new coaches, a full-time gig and a QB rating (84.9) almost eight points ahead of Manning's. Losman certainly wouldn't have been mistaken for excellent, but he did produce two more games with a 90-plus rating than Manning, two fewer multi-INT games, one more 300-yard game and just 193 fewer passing yards for the season in nearly 100 fewer attempts. On top of that disparity, compare the supporting casts: Losman was sacked more often than all but two quarterbacks in 2006 (Jon Kitna and Marc Bulger) and had few receiving options beyond Lee Evans. Buffalo's second-leading receiver was Peerless Price with 49 catches (behind Evans' 82), followed by Josh "Hands of Stone" Reed (34), injury-marred rookie Roscoe Parrish (23) and new tight end Robert Royal (23). Manning, by comparison, was the 17th most-sacked quarterback and had the pleasure of throwing balls to Plaxico Burress (63 receptions), Jeremy Shockey (66), Tiki Barber (58) and Amani Toomer (32 in eight games).
Given all that, at this point I'd have to say that Losman appears to be playing better, maybe significantly so. Unfortunately, although the Bills brought in two big-money free agents on the offensive line, his fantasy value could still be mitigated by an unimpressive group of receivers. Rookie running back Marshawn Lynch should offer more in the passing game than Willis McGahee, but unless a young wideout or two surprises, it looks like pretty much the same cast of pass catchers (and droppers).
Manning might still have slightly more fantasy scoring potential because of his teammates, but he'll have to show me quite a bit before I'd feel good about drafting him as my starter. Both look like later-round backups to me, but Manning will probably still get overdrafted, making Losman a better value at his level.
By Matt Schauf
PFS Football
Back in 2004, plenty of people probably looked at the first quarterback taken and figured Eli Manning would be a stud -- or at least a very good player -- sooner than later. He had the pedigree, the talent, the same college coach his brother had learned under at Tennessee. On the flipside, the fourth and final quarterback taken in that first round must have elicited a collective "Who?" when he went to Buffalo. Supporters of J.P. Losman compared his style to that of Brett Favre, while detractors and neutral viewers could merely chuckle at the comparison. After three seasons, though, I think it's at least arguable which young passer will be the better fantasy (and real) quarterback in 2007.
Manning was the golden boy right from the start. He went to Archie's alma mater. He garnered Peyton's draft slot. He finagled his way from San Diego to the Big Apple with a John Elway-like "I don't wanna play there" decree. He stepped into a seemingly favorable situation with recent league MVP Kurt Warner to serve as starter and teacher until Manning was ready. That point came in the middle of his rookie year, when Manning took over a 5-4 team after consecutive losses and went 1-6 in seven starts the rest of the way.
You can't really blame Manning, though, for the team's rocky finish or his lackluster numbers that year: 48.2 completion percentage, six touchdowns, nine interceptions. A rookie quarterback is bound to struggle at least a little bit, and he gave particular reason for hope among Giants fans by posting QB ratings of more than 100 in two of the final three games.
The next year he started the whole way and looked like a solid young pro quarterback. He had some very productive outings, some other solid ones and a few terrible ones, finishing with a solid 24-17 TD-INT ratio but an unimpressive 52.8 completion percentage. Still, his continued development and the Giants' division title (despite a total team meltdown against Carolina in the playoffs, including three picks for Manning) gave more reason for hope.
Then came 2006 and a stall in Manning's progression. He upped his QB rating by just 1.1 points to 77.0 (19th among guys with at least eight starts) and he threw one more interception than the previous season in 35 fewer pass attempts. He did toss 24 touchdown passes again, which tied him for fourth in the league, but he had just four games with a QB rating of more than 90.0 compared with nine games at less than 80.0. He nearly balanced out his seven multi-TD games—just two of which came in the final 10 with six multi-INT games. He reached 300 yards passing just once (in the second game) while failing to reach 200 yards nine times.
At the same time, and about a seven-hour drive away, Losman joined the Bills behind Drew Bledsoe and promptly lost nearly his entire rookie season to a broken leg in training camp. Whatever he showed in late-season practices and his five in-game pass attempts, however, were enough for the Bills to release Bledsoe and go into 2005 with Losman under center and Kelly Holcomb as his backup.
Even though he had officially been in the league for a year already, Losman was essentially a rookie in 2005 and played like it. His 49.6 completion percentage was quite similar to that from Manning's rookie year, and he rode some streaky play (good and bad) to an 8-8 TD-INT ratio in eight starts and nine games total. Any natural new-guy shakiness that Losman might have produced that year anyway was only heightened by being jerked in and out of the lineup by the coaching staff, which also helped create a locker-room rift over who should be starting.
A year later, Losman had new coaches, a full-time gig and a QB rating (84.9) almost eight points ahead of Manning's. Losman certainly wouldn't have been mistaken for excellent, but he did produce two more games with a 90-plus rating than Manning, two fewer multi-INT games, one more 300-yard game and just 193 fewer passing yards for the season in nearly 100 fewer attempts. On top of that disparity, compare the supporting casts: Losman was sacked more often than all but two quarterbacks in 2006 (Jon Kitna and Marc Bulger) and had few receiving options beyond Lee Evans. Buffalo's second-leading receiver was Peerless Price with 49 catches (behind Evans' 82), followed by Josh "Hands of Stone" Reed (34), injury-marred rookie Roscoe Parrish (23) and new tight end Robert Royal (23). Manning, by comparison, was the 17th most-sacked quarterback and had the pleasure of throwing balls to Plaxico Burress (63 receptions), Jeremy Shockey (66), Tiki Barber (58) and Amani Toomer (32 in eight games).
Given all that, at this point I'd have to say that Losman appears to be playing better, maybe significantly so. Unfortunately, although the Bills brought in two big-money free agents on the offensive line, his fantasy value could still be mitigated by an unimpressive group of receivers. Rookie running back Marshawn Lynch should offer more in the passing game than Willis McGahee, but unless a young wideout or two surprises, it looks like pretty much the same cast of pass catchers (and droppers).
Manning might still have slightly more fantasy scoring potential because of his teammates, but he'll have to show me quite a bit before I'd feel good about drafting him as my starter. Both look like later-round backups to me, but Manning will probably still get overdrafted, making Losman a better value at his level.
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