Points to ponder....

[alohabillsfan]

1) We were the only team to have 4 defensive linemen in the top 30 in tackles.
(Kelsay lead the D-line)

2) We had 3 DE's in the top 50 in sacks.

Now I did not go back and watch all the games so I cannot tell you where these tackles had taken place but I will assume most of them were not 8-10 yards down field.

The reason I bring this up is, I think the D-line (not Anderson) is good enough, the question remains is, was the problem Fletch/Spikes? Was it Whitner?

I may have to pick a game or 2 and watch those 3 players?

Zoners, Thoughts?

[Yasgur's Farm]

I've said all along that the DT's filled their gaps just like the scheme calls for... It was the LB's (Spikes and Fletcher and no Crowell) that failed to fill their gaps.

As for our DE's... GREAT against the pass but lacking in run D. I actually look for Hargrove to have a nice year when he fills in for Schobel who drops back to OLB in run situations.

[djjimkelly]

ive been saying it for a few years fletcher is a persuit LB and not a hole plugger. unlike alot on the board i dont think fletcher will be missed and will be forgotten once some of our LBs start playing downhill like i think LBs need to play in this league!!!!

[Wys Guy]

1) We were the only team to have 4 defensive linemen in the top 30 in tackles.
(Kelsay lead the D-line)

2) We had 3 DE's in the top 50 in sacks.

Now I did not go back and watch all the games so I cannot tell you where these tackles had taken place but I will assume most of them were not 8-10 yards down field.

The reason I bring this up is, I think the D-line (not Anderson) is good enough, the question remains is, was the problem Fletch/Spikes? Was it Whitner?

I may have to pick a game or 2 and watch those 3 players?

Zoners, Thoughts?
A lot of ways to go with this analysis.

How did our LBs rank relatively to other LB-ing corps in this way?

Where were those tackles made? I know that McCargo's were all well past the line of scrimmage for example. Tripplett's surely weren't made in the offensive backfield of near the LoS.

What does this say for our LBs if the line was making tackles in our defensive backfield?

How does one reconcile this with the fact that we ranked 28th in rushing yardage D and 29th in yards-per-carry allowed?

Does that seem odd to your for a team that routinely dropped it's DEs into coverage thereby allowing them to make tackles in the secondary range of the defensive backfield?

Sometimes what may seem to be a good thing is really not.

[patmoran2006]

1) We were the only team to have 4 defensive linemen in the top 30 in tackles.
(Kelsay lead the D-line)

2) We had 3 DE's in the top 50 in sacks.

Now I did not go back and watch all the games so I cannot tell you where these tackles had taken place but I will assume most of them were not 8-10 yards down field.

The reason I bring this up is, I think the D-line (not Anderson) is good enough, the question remains is, was the problem Fletch/Spikes? Was it Whitner?

I may have to pick a game or 2 and watch those 3 players?

Zoners, Thoughts?
1) When they can pin their ears back and rush the QB they are very good, especially Schobel. Denney's sack total is a tad misleading as half of it came in week two at Miami. Kelsay has a habit of having good games against bad teams and totally being shut down against good tackles. Schobel is a great pass rusher I dont care who is lining up against him.. HE always "gets his"

2) THey are not strong against the run. I dont have the numbers with me, but I know for a fact it was Fletcher who led the teams in tackles behind the line, and that's only 5. That's not good.

Overall, the DE's here are above average on the pass rush and below average vs the run. AS a unit, I wouldnt call them a strength of the team, but it's far from the biggest weakness.

Perhaps improved DT play will make it easier for our DE's to be more effective against the run, but unless McCargo comes back and is really productive and/or Darwin Walker is signed AND also plays well, that aint happening. OUr DT's as a unit are a big-time sore spot on this team and will continue to be until our FO realizes that its time for personnel changes.

[ddaryl]

Our D was on the field quite a bit which means many of those stats are padded. Tackle stats are always higher on teams whose D spend more time on the field.

Our D-Line is weak, we do not dominate, our QB pressures were mostly coverage sacks and opposing offenses seem to be able to run at will against us...

I do not have a tremendous amount of confidence in our D-Line. I hope for some improvement since the DL is basically the same as last year with a couple of new faces, but the DL was anythign but a success story last season.

[BuffaloBillsStampede]

I honestly think our DL will be fine if we can get Walker signed. I think Kyle Williams was an absolute steal in the draft. He was playing really well towards the end of the season, always around the ball when there was a running play. If McCargo can come back and stay healthy, and we get Walker signed then I think the DL could even become a strength for us this year. I am most worried about our LB spot. If we have one injury at LB we are pretty screwed.

[Historian]

Denney's sack total is a tad misleading as half of it came in week two at Miami.

Give him a 100,000 bonus just for the extra effort against the fish.

Or a new Corvette.

[alohabillsfan]

A lot of ways to go with this analysis.

How did our LBs rank relatively to other LB-ing corps in this way? You look it up!

Where were those tackles made? I know that McCargo's were all well past the line of scrimmage for example. Tripplett's surely weren't made in the offensive backfield of near the LoS. Do you really think tripplett's tackles where down field?

What does this say for our LBs if the line was making tackles in our defensive backfield? What team do you watch?,

How does one reconcile this with the fact that we ranked 28th in rushing yardage D and 29th in yards-per-carry allowed?

Does that seem odd to your for a team that routinely dropped it's DEs into coverage thereby allowing them to make tackles in the secondary range of the defensive backfield? We routinely drop DE's? I don't agree with that statement! Watch the games...
Sometimes what may seem to be a good thing is really not. Or the coaching staff recognized the weakness of this defense and has since uloaded them?

[juice]

OK

[Luisito23]

I dont think fletcher will be missed


He will be missed...not so much because of his play, but because of his leadership which is desperately needed in such a young squad as ours, same goes with TKO....Let's just hope we find another leader who can fire up this team, and this city......




GO BILLS!!!!!!

[djjimkelly]

He will be missed...not so much because of his play, but because of his leadership which is desperately needed in such a young squad as ours, same goes with TKO....Let's just hope we find another leader who can fire up this team, and this city......




GO BILLS!!!!!!

look i agree we need someone to step up and be a leader but i find it hard to say a guy who never led this D and team into playoffs will be sorely missed is a stretch. fletcher is what he was ... a guy who dragged down runners 4-5 yards into their runs and he liked to talk to set example but apparently it wasnt enough

[Mitchy moo]

I feel that if any team goes ahead enough their opponent becomes predictable in the play calling dept. The Bills D can gain an advantage this season by the offense staying on the field and scoring more. I remember dozens of times last season where if we just could of gotten a little more, we play on and potentially score more.

A few field goals here or there seem insignificant but when you add a TD and you made a few field goals, you go multiple scores ahead and force your opponents to go more pass.

I plan on us playing ahead more this season and forcing teams to chase. The D will get it's QB shots and INT's to force even more obvious play calls. We won't win every game but mark my words we will leave all of our opponents with marks of how it went on their D. Big line and young pounding backs will dampen any success they have against us.

Teams used to despise playing the Bills because they knew they we're in for a tough day and we usually had a good chance to win, those days are coming back soon.

[YardRat]

Just to add to some other's comments...

Our defense was on the field for more plays than just about every other defense in the league. More plays against, more tackles to be made, and a major contributing factor to that was the pathetic performance of the offense.

Too many three-and-outs in the first three quarters and teams get tired.

[HHURRICANE]

Our D was on the field quite a bit which means many of those stats are padded. Tackle stats are always higher on teams whose D spend more time on the field.

Our D-Line is weak, we do not dominate, our QB pressures were mostly coverage sacks and opposing offenses seem to be able to run at will against us...

I do not have a tremendous amount of confidence in our D-Line. I hope for some improvement since the DL is basically the same as last year with a couple of new faces, but the DL was anythign but a success story last season.

I recommend re-watching the games. Larry Tripplett is a better player than people think around here.

Tim Anderson and Jason Jefferson are both total liabilities out there so if they are not on the field we will be better off.

Darwin Walker, Kyle Williams, Larry Tripplett, and John McCargo have every chance of being an above average DL if everyone stays healthy and gets signed.

Linebacker is a joke. Our depth chart is full of undrafted players, except for Coy Wire (who we wasted a 3rd rounder on). You have to expect one our starters to tweak something and be out for a game here or there (this is normal) and we'll be stuck with Wire, Stamer, Haggan, Manning or DiGorgio. This should scare everyone!

[OpIv37]

1) We were the only team to have 4 defensive linemen in the top 30 in tackles.
(Kelsay lead the D-line)

2) We had 3 DE's in the top 50 in sacks.

Now I did not go back and watch all the games so I cannot tell you where these tackles had taken place but I will assume most of them were not 8-10 yards down field.

The reason I bring this up is, I think the D-line (not Anderson) is good enough, the question remains is, was the problem Fletch/Spikes? Was it Whitner?

I may have to pick a game or 2 and watch those 3 players?

Zoners, Thoughts?



one thing I think you are missing: our defensive system requires our DT's to pressure they QB. They didn't. Of the DT's that played last year (Tripplett, Williams, McCargo, Anderson, Jefferson, Hargrove, I think I'm missing one), only Tripplett had sacks. And he only had 3 and his first one was in the 10th game.

So our DT's didn't do their job in the system. As far as our DE's, Schobel is great against the pass and the other DE spot (shared by Kelsay and Denney) had it's moments, but they were liabilities against the run. See DraftBoy's analysis- teams smoked us to the outside.

And as other people pointed out, our D was on the field a lot more than it should have been, so that pads tackling stats.

When you add it all up, the number of tacklers in the top 30 is not a good metric of our DL's performance last year.

Certainly the LB's weren't as good as they could have been as well, but I think the DL was a bigger part of the problem.

[Wys Guy]

Or the coaching staff recognized the weakness of this defense and has since uloaded them?

I'm gonna pick on your here aloha since your retort was both baseless as well as ignorant of the facts. Therefore, to your post above aloha and to your points in order:

You look it up!

I look up what I need to in order to conduct my analyses.


Do you really think tripplett's tackles where down field?

Well, I don't know, here are the yardage marks for all of his 33 combined tackles minus the three tackles that were involved in sacks, you tell me how many were in the offensive backfield:

10, 9, 7, 7, 6, 6, 6, 5, 5, 5, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0 -1, -3

Now, I count two (2). How many do you count?

Therefore, my answer to your question, as originally implied by myself, is that if I actually believe the numbers provided by the NFL Gamebooks, then yes, yes I do believe that.

But don't forget, our future Pro Bowler Tripplett logged two-and-a-half very impressive sacks against David Carr (1) and David Garrard (1.5). Two incredible QBs in the NFL in their own right on two tremendously effective passing offenses.

So ya got me there!


What team do you watch?

I watched our team. Which team did you watch?

Kind of a silly question now with the facts on Tripplett's tackles on display, doncha think.

So I fear that you may have been watching another team. Perhaps a local high school team that you mistook for our Bills. ;)


We routinely drop DE's? I don't agree with that statement! Watch the games...

In the simple exercise of merely collecting McCargo's data, I noted that he himself had dropped into coverage no less than a half-dozen times. Do you think that's average, below average, or above average for a DT?

I also noticed, again, merely during a narrowly focused data collecting run, that many of our other DTs and DEs were routinely dropped into coverage. Imagine if I spent the time looking through to count the number of times that a DL-man covered a pass. That only recognizes that times that a receiver was thrown to with a lineman on him, not all the times that one of our DL-men actually dropped back into coverage.

So I guess it doesn't matter whether you agree or not. 'dems da facts pardner.

[Wys Guy]

one thing I think you are missing: our defensive system requires our DT's to pressure they QB. They didn't. Of the DT's that played last year (Tripplett, Williams, McCargo, Anderson, Jefferson, Hargrove, I think I'm missing one), only Tripplett had sacks. And he only had 3 and his first one was in the 10th game.

So our DT's didn't do their job in the system. As far as our DE's, Schobel is great against the pass and the other DE spot (shared by Kelsay and Denney) had it's moments, but they were liabilities against the run. See DraftBoy's analysis- teams smoked us to the outside.

And as other people pointed out, our D was on the field a lot more than it should have been, so that pads tackling stats.

When you add it all up, the number of tacklers in the top 30 is not a good metric of our DL's performance last year.

Certainly the LB's weren't as good as they could have been as well, but I think the DL was a bigger part of the problem.

Actually, I was merely throwing out some things for aloha to consider. Overly simplified analyses are what get man thinking more optimistically than is good for their own health. LOL

Tripplett had 2 1/2 sacks only, and against Carr (sucks on a sucky O) and Garrard (first time starter). Neither Houston or Jax was considered an above average passing team last season.

Very much agree with you however. Things don't work as intended b/c our leaders have failed, incredibly, to assemble the talent required in positions to do what they want.

Just wait for this season. Our DL is the same and our LB-ing is worse. I have no idea on earth what is going to prevent opposing O's to rush for an average of 150+ against us. I really don't.

[justasportsfan]

Just wait for this season. Our DL is the same and our LB-ing is worse. I have no idea on earth what is going to prevent opposing O's to rush for an average of 150+ against us. I really don't.


yeah, I was waiting for us to finish last year worst in franchise history. Never happened. I ain't waiting again.

[Mad Bomber]

Just wait for this season. Our DL is the same and our LB-ing is worse. I have no idea on earth what is going to prevent opposing O's to rush for an average of 150+ against us. I really don't.It's June. Let's revisit this in December, Nostradamus....

[Wys Guy]

It's June. Let's revisit this in December, Nostradamus....

LOL

Sure MB. BTW, while your at it, tracking me that is, what's your prediction?

Or are you going to just sit there and nitpick at all the one's that I'm 5% off on?

How about laying some of your own out?

Are there any "men" here in that way? All I see are stone throwers in glass houses quite frankly! I can understand it quite honestly as it's no fun standing around with one's pants around one's ankles in full view. ;)

I revisited ALL of my predictions on my own site, publicly, and candidly. I'm not at all ashamed of my accuracy. Been that way for seasons. I have yet to see one person that has challenged me on these things post their own in spite of my having offered them a public forum.

Will you be the first MB? Why am I thinking that you won't be? I'd be happy to post your own predictions, in details, on my site, here, whatever. I see and hear a lot of people criticizing. And why not, I criticize the team and its management. But then again, I also offer solutions, analyses, and statements of my own in contrast to fully document my position, not merely throwing out my unfounded opinion as if it means more than realities.

Anyway MB, anyone for that matter, you're all welcome to post your predictions side-by-side with mine. Here, on the front page of my site where I'd be happy to post your name alongside your proud predictions. Then, at season's end we'll revisit.

Otherwise, if you're not going to ante up, then while I stand by my predictions, I'll reject your fishing around for the few that I was marginally off on hoisting those as the colors of victory amongst the smoldering rubbish that was your headquarters.

;)

[Jan Reimers]

I don't understand flat out statements like "our LB-ing is worse." Did people making these kind of statements actually WATCH Fletcher and Spikes last year?

I know I'm stupid, and this is blasphemy, but I believe our LBs - a healthy Crowell, a second year Ellison, and a smart, griity, motivated Poz - will be much better than last year.

That, and the growth of Whitner and Simpson at the safety positions, will help immeasurably in stopping the run.

[Dr. Lecter]

And, if the offense can control the ball more, the defense will be more well rested.

[Wys Guy]

I don't understand flat out statements like "our LB-ing is worse." Did people making these kind of statements actually WATCH Fletcher and Spikes last year?

I know I'm stupid, and this is blasphemy, but I believe our LBs - a healthy Crowell, a second year Ellison, and a smart, griity, motivated Poz - will be much better than last year.

That, and the growth of Whitner and Simpson at the safety positions, will help immeasurably in stopping the run.

When your safeties are expected to stop the run, call me nuts Jan, but things aren't looking rosy.

As to the LBs analysis, "[you] believe" is the basis for it. Fine, but we presently have a combined 30 starts amongst all LBs on the roster, 24 of which are owned by Crowell, a dozen each in two seasons, never even having started a full season. Ellison did nothing consequential last season and was far from an average LB let alone any sort of impact player. Just because he posted a few decent games, decent, not great by any measure, against three of the worst offenses in the league then (Mia, Tenn, and Balt), means little.

If experience has no place in your analysis, then I simply don't know what to say or how to respond.

As for me, if those were the circumstances on any one of 31 other teams, I would predict the exact same thing, namely not a good year for that LB unit. Anything less would be dishonest. That doesn't even factor in any injuries. One injury to any of the starters and consider for a moment who backfills?

I'll pit "your belief" against my analysis of qualifying starts, experience, past play of the players that are starting, all coupled with a history of how other teams/units have performed in this way in the past any day of the week.

Now really, which of the two stacks of supporting information would you lay your IRA down on?

By the time Whitner and Simpson, particularly in a cover-2 with dubious CBs, are useful in doing anything but being a last line of defense in the running game, we'll be yielding 6.0 ypc.

[Wys Guy]

And, if the offense can control the ball more, the defense will be more well rested.

If our offense can control the ball perfectly we may achieve a 30:00 ToP.

Our opponents are going to run all over us and dink/dunk their way to passing success just as they did last year. Whether we actually shut down opposing deep passing games or whether our opponents merely utilized the short-medium passing game and running game nearly exclusively by design is moot.

All that our opponents will have to do is that dink/dunk short-medium passing game where our coverage sucked hind teet and then run the ball where our DL averaging 275 lbs. isn't going to hold up.

Why do you think it will? Is there an extended history amongst NFL teams, not merely a one-sy example like Tampa's '02 defense that had infinitely more talent and was far better coached, that suggests something else?

[Jan Reimers]

Wys, here are just a few of the things that you, Op, Pat and what I refer to as the "thinking" negative element (notice, I don't lump you with concreteboy, et. al.)
always seem to miss, belittle, or disregard:

1.) That young players actually get better, particularly from their first to second, and second to third, year. We have 8 to 10 key players in that category.

2.) That older, experienced players decline. Witness Spikes and Fletcher who, with all their experience, are no longer major forces on the field.

3.) That rookies sometimes play better than the aging, declining players they replace.

4.) That the players who have left the Bills were no longer amongst our best players, except for Clements - who actually is not as good as his reputation.

5.) That the failures of Butler and Donahoe do not assure the failure of Levy and Jauron.

6.) That your "facts" and "stats" are merely opinions, and you don't know any better than I how the coming season will go.