Chambers is overrated

[Pinkerton Security]

This is the second in a series of articles about overrated and underrated players. The rankings are based primarily on the 2006 metrics. This week's topic is overrated and underrated wide receivers.


Overrated wide receivers

Donald Driver
For sheer production, Driver had few equals last year, as he ranked fifth in the league in receptions and in receiving yards.

June 20 Glossary

YPA (Yards Per Attempt): A quick barometer of a quarterback/wide receiver/tight end's efficiency. Depth level: A measurement of how far downfield a receiver was on a pass attempt. It is measured from the point at which the receiver touched the ball. Short passes are 1-10, medium 11-19, deep 20-29, and bombs 30 or more yards downfield. Success percentage: The percentage of plays on which a player does something successful with the ball. Successful plays include completions (for offensive players), incompletions (for defensive players) and penalty plays that go in the player's favor. Missed passes: Inaccurate or dropped passes that cause an incompletion. Missed passes are used to measure how successful a QB/WR/TE could have been if not for the mistakes. They also help measure how lucky a cornerback was in coverage. • Complete Glossary

However, it took a huge number of pass attempts for him to amass these figures. When I rank wide receivers, I place the highest value on consistency and explosiveness. Driver certainly wasn't that explosive, as his 7.6 YPA ranked him 48th among wide receivers (of 67 qualifiers).
His 10.3 YPA on bomb passes (30-plus yards downfield) ranked him 39th in the league, and his 10.1 YPA on deep passes (20-29 yards) ranked him 44th.
Driver's consistency also left something to be desired. His success percentage, which used to be Driver's calling card, plummeted to a meager 57.6 percent last year, his lowest total in the four years I have been tracking metrics. He also had the most dropped passes of any wide receiver, and his dropped pass percentage (14.4) was the 12th worst in the NFL.
I'm not saying Driver is a bad wide receiver. I just think metrics such as these did not warrant the Pro Bowl starter slot he garnered last year.
Chris Chambers
Chambers isn't considered a great receiver, but his metrics indicate he wasn't even a good receiver last year. Chambers had the lowest YPA (5.1) and success percentage (44.8) of any wide receiver in the NFL in 2006. He ranked no higher than 49th in YPA at any depth level, so he lacked production across the board.
Chambers was hampered by bad quarterback play, but 14 of his 24 missed pass plays last year were drops. Even if some of those other 10 passes had been completed, though, it still wouldn't have brought his overall metrics back up to a respectable level.
Honorable mention
Randy Moss: He'll have to dramatically improve on his meager 6.2 YPA to keep the Patriots happy.
Greg Jennings: He is a Favre favorite, but his success percentage (45.2) was the second-lowest in the league.
Wes Welker: He is being touted as a vastly underrated player, but his 7.2 YPA last year ranked 55th in the league.
Torry Holt: He is one of my all-time favorite wide receivers, but his 7.5 YPA and 55.9 success percentage were his worst numbers in the four years I've been doing this. He also didn't deserve a starting spot in the Pro Bowl.



Underrated wide receivers

Terry Glenn
Terrell Owens gets the most press in Dallas, but the metrics indicate Glenn was the better receiver in 2006, and it wasn't even close. Glenn had the third-best overall YPA, the ninth-best bomb pass YPA and the seventh-best medium pass YPA. Contrast that with Owens' ranking in overall YPA (40th), bomb pass YPA (37th) and medium pass YPA (34th), and it is clear Glenn is the more consistent and explosive receiver. Owens is still a productive player, as evidenced by his 13 touchdowns, but Glenn is the far more reliable receiver.
Reggie Brown
Donte Stallworth (who left via free agency) and Kevin Curtis (who signed with the Eagles) have received most of the attention in Philadelphia this offseason, but if the 2006 metrics are any indication, the breakout receiver could be Brown. He ranked 12th in the league with a 9.6 YPA last year, putting him in the company of Reggie Wayne and Darrell Jackson.
He also ranked in the top 22 in bomb and deep pass YPA and had the sixth-highest medium pass YPA. Opposing defenses might be paying a lot of attention to Curtis this season, and Brown's metrics indicate he could make them pay for it.
Honorable mention
Bryant Johnson: He has been an inconsistent player for most of his career, but had a strong season last year, posting a 10.5 YPA.
Santonio Holmes: His 10.5 short pass YPA was not only the best in the league, but ranked 2.5 yards higher than the second-best receiver in that category.
Mark Clayton: His 33.9 bomb pass YPA was the highest in the NFL last season.
D.J. Hackett: Hackett ranked 10th in overall YPA (9.7), and first in medium pass YPA (15.1) and success percentage (84.6).

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=2908843&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab5pos1

Heres the link but its an insider article, some may not have it, so i posted it all.


I always thought Chambers was a good receiver, but maybe only bc he lit up the Bills for like 16 catches and 252 yds.

I think sometimes stats are deceving, but he makes a compelling argument. Still, I'd never turn down an Evans-Chambers Badger duo.

[The King]

Re: Chambers is overrated

I think Donald Driver is heavily under rated. The guy is never mentioned when it comes to the leagues best yet he goes out there and performs every week. When Javon Walker left he picked up the slack while getting no attention at all.

How was he mentioned and TO not? Owens dropped more balls than any other full time guy last year, he has lost his explosiveness and was out played by Terry Glenn.

Then they mention Greg Jennings as over rated? The guys rookie year and he played like a rookie, some flashes of the future while mistakes of a rook. I want to know who is hyping this guy up to be the next Chad Johnson? No one...

Whoever wrote this article clearly watched 4 games last year.

[justasportsfan]

Re: Chambers is overrated

Chambers may be overrated as a no. 1 . BUt I'd love for him to play opposite Evans.

[Philagape]

Re: Chambers is overrated

I agree on Chambers. He's an underachiever for most of his career. He has one 1,000-yard season out of six (sound familiar, Bills fans?). The classic case of having the physical tools to be a star but not the right intangibles.

[Ickybaluky]

Re: Chambers is overrated

I agree on Chambers. He's an underachiever for most of his career. He has one 1,000-yard season out of six (sound familiar, Bills fans?). The classic case of having the physical tools to be a star but not the right intangibles.

In his defense, he hasn't exactly had the league elite throwing him the ball.

Chambers needs to show more consistency. He is dominant at times, but disappears at others. He seems to drop passes in critical situations.

[Pinkerton Security]

Re: Chambers is overrated

I personally don't like hearing that Torry Holt is overrated. Sure, the stats he gave stated that. But how can arguably the best all-around receiver in the game be overrated? Thats like saying LT is overrated simply because he is the best RB in the game, but only averages 4.3 yds a carry while someone else averages 4.6, while watching him play you can tell hes simply the best, or top 2 or 3 if you like to argue.

Torry Holt has speed, some of the best hands in the game, great route running skills, and everything else you look for in a receiver. I think he is as good as the hype.

Chambers, as phil said, has all the tools, but also has had much incosistency at QB throwing to him. And idk how Jennings is overrated when most all casual football fans do not have any idea who he is. Driver puts up numbers, plain as that.


I think this guy simply sits in a cubicle with his calculator and doesnt even watch games, because some of these, excluding Randy Moss, are simply off-base IMO.

[tampabay25690]

Re: Chambers is overrated

Torry Holt, Chris Chambers , and Donald Driver overrated WR...WOW I think they are all great WR.

I would love to have any of the 3 as a WR in Buffao....

I think Lee Evans should have been mentioned as underrated, he just doesnt get enough attention...

[Bling]

Re: Chambers is overrated

This guy is an idiot. Only Moss, Chambers, and Jennings deserve to be on that list. Holt deserves all the praise he gets, Driver is underrated (as I always am able to pick him up late in FF), and Welker was never praised till the Pats picked him up and nobody has hyped him up to be more than a #3 WR.


As for Chambers, I understand where he's coming from. And I agree to a degree. He is overrated. However, when Chambers can turn on the light switch, he's easily one of the best WRs in the league. Only Harrison, Evans, Ocho Cinco, Holt, Smith can turn it on better than he can, imo. Owens is a little past his prime. If you actually look at the **** he's been through, you kind of feel for him. I believe he's only had Norv Turner as an OC for more than one year, besides that a new OC every year. The best QB of his career was Gus Frerotte. His OCs include Mike Mularkey, Norv Turner, Chan Gailey, someone in between Turner and Linehan whom I forget - none of which are known for vertical offenses. Sometimes the best you can do in a system like that is put up 800 yards receiving.

The only years I will hold against him were the Turner and Fiedler years (2 years if I remember correctly). Though Fiedler was a noodle arm, and Turner was known for "spreading the ball" and "pounding the rock", he also had a 1800 and 1300 yard rusher. Fiedler was a decent and 2nd best QB, and Turner is a well respected OC in this league (though he sucks at HC).

[Philagape]

Re: Chambers is overrated

In his defense, he hasn't exactly had the league elite throwing him the ball.

Neither did Eric Moulds, and he had a much better career.

The great WRs produce regardless

[dolphan117]

Re: Chambers is overrated

I believe this is a bit of a repeat of old information he has printed before. The reason I don't like it is that the receiver position is hugely dependant on the QB, offensive scheme, and play-calling for success. Some time ago this Chambers metric bashing actually prompted me look at what kind of a job we and others teams did at getting their number one receives the football, I did a little research and posted it on Finheaven.

Here is the cut and past from the thread-

There has been much debate on Chris Chambers and his lack of production this year and football outsiders even did an article that made him out to be the worst receiver in the league because of his woeful catch percentage of just 38.3 percent. That got me wondering just what kind of a job we were doing at getting our receivers the ball. I mean that’s an awfully low catch percentage but what if we were throwing Chris an inordinately large number of uncatchable balls? So I broke down our receivers as well as some from around the league to look at just what kind of job we have been doing at getting our receivers the ball in situations where they should be expected to make the catch. I mean its not the receivers fault if the balls gets batted down at the line, thrown over his head, or out of bounds ect. right? So here are the breakdowns. (If this looks familiar to some its because I did the same kind of breakdown during the year in a thread about Chambers but now that the year is done I wanted to do it again so we could look at the whole year.)

Marty Booker- Was thrown to 90 times and caught 55 of them for 747 yards and 6 Tds
Of those 90 throws we can subtract the following because they were uncatchable

Batted Down at Scrimmage= 1
Pass Overthrown= 8
Thrown Away Intentionally= 1
Pass Underthrown= 4
Pass Thrown Wide= 4
QB-Rcvr Miscommunicate= 3
Total unmatchable= 21
Link

So Booker had a “normal” opportunity to catch 69 balls and came down with 55 of them for an adjusted catch percentage of 79.7%. Not bad. 23% of the balls thrown to Booker were uncatchable
Other notes-Booker had 4 drops and was targeted 38 times when the blitz was on.

Wes Welker- Was thrown to 100 times and caught 67 of them for 687 yards and 1 TD
Of those throws we can subtract the following because they were unnatchable.

Batted Down at Scrimmage= 1
QB-Rcvr Miscommunicate= 1
Pass Overthrown= 7
Thrown Away Intentionally= 3
Pass Underthrown= 3
Pass Thrown Wide= 5
Pass Defensed= 7
Total unmatchable=27
Link

So Wes had a “normal” opportunity to catch 73 balls and came down with 67 of them for an adjusted catch percentage of 91.7% which is pretty outstanding. 27% of the balls thrown to Wes were uncatchable.
Other notes-Wes had 7 drops on the year and was thrown to 31 times when the blitz was on.

Chris Chambers-Was thrown to 154 times and caught 59 of them for 677 yards and 4 TD’s. Of those 154 throws we can subtract the following because they were uncatchable

Batted Down at Scrimmage= 5
QB-Rcvr Miscommunicate= 3
Pass Overthrown= 23
Thrown Away Intentionally= 9
Pass Underthrown= 10
Pass Thrown Wide= 12
Pass Defensed= 19
Pass Caught-OOB= 3
Total unmatchable= 84
Link

So Chambers had a “normal” opportunity to catch 70 balls and came down with 59 of them for an adjusted catch percentage of 84%. Not bad. 54.5% of the balls thrown to Chambers were uncatchable
Other notes-Chambers had 8 drops on the year and was thrown to 62 times when the Blitz was on.

For comparison lets look at some other receivers around the league

Steve Smith-Was thrown to 139 times and caught 83 of them for 1166 yards and 8 TD’s
Of those 139 throws we can subtract the following because they were uncatchable

Batted Down at Scrimmage= 4
Pass Overthrown= 13
Thrown Away Intentionally= 3
Pass Underthrown= 4
Pass Thrown Wide= 5
Pass Defensed= 10
Pass Caught-OOB= 2
Total unmatchable= 41
Link

So Smith had a “normal” opportunity to catch 98 balls and came down with 83 of them for an adjusted catch percentage of 84.6, not bad. 29.4% of the balls thrown to Smith were uncatchable.
Other notes-Smith had 10 drops on the year and was thrown to 48 times when the blitz was on.

Terell Owens-Was thrown to 152 times and caught 85 of them for 1180 yards and 13 TD’s. Of those 152 throws we can subtract the following because they were uncatchable.

Batted Down at Scrimmage= 2
QB-Rcvr Miscommunicate= 3
Pass Overthrown=12
Thrown Away Intentionally= 1
Pass Underthrown= 4
Pass Thrown Wide= 8
Pass Defensed= 13
Total uncatchable=43
Link

So T.O. had a “normal” opportunity to catch 109 balls and came down with 85 of them for an adjusted catch percentage of 77.9%, not great but not bad. 28.2% of the balls thrown to T.O. were uncatchable.
Other notes-T.O had 17 drops on the year and was thrown to 41 times when the Blitz was on.

Marvin Harrison- Was thrown to 148 times and caught 95 of them for 1366 yards and 12 TD’s. Of those 148 throws we can subtract the following because they were uncatchable.

Batted Down at Scrimmage= 3
QB-Rcvr Miscommunicate=1
Pass Overthrown= 14
Thrown Away Intentionally= 2
Pass Underthrown= 2
Pass Thrown Wide= 6
Pass Defensed= 14
Pass Caught-OOB= 2
Total unmatchable= 44
Link

So Marvin had a “normal” opportunity to catch 104 balls and he came down with 95 of them for an adjusted catch percentage of 91.3%, impressive. 29.7% of the balls thrown to Marvin were uncatchable.
Other notes- Marvin had 7 drops and was thrown to 42 times when the blitz was on.

Chad Johnson- Was thrown to 152 times and caught 87 of them for 1369 yards and 7 TD’s. Of those 152 throws we can subtract the following because they were uncatchable.

Batted Down at Scrimmage= 4
QB-Rcvr Miscommunicate= 3
Pass Overthrown= 17
Thrown Away Intentionally= 6
Pass Underthrown= 6
Pass Thrown Wide= 8
Pass Defensed= 9
Pass Caught-OOB= 2
Total uncatchable= 55
Link

So Chad had a “normal opportunity to catch 97 balls and he came down with 87 of them for an adjusted catch percentage of 89.6%, pretty good. 36.1% of the balls thrown to Chad were uncatchable. Other notes- Chad had 5 drops and was thrown to 48 times when the blitz was on.

The thing that jumps out to me is that a full 54.6 percent of the balls we threw to Chambers this year were uncachable. That’s a mind blowing stat to me. When we actually got him the ball in a normal kind of a situation he made the catch 84 percent of the time which really isn’t bad. Its not as high as some but its certainly not that bad.

He also didn’t have an inordinate number of drops when compared to other top receivers. And before you say “But I know he had more drops than that!” remember that these aren’t my stats, they are from Stats LLC and unless they are all rabid Chambers fans then they are probably pretty accurate. Their standards for what a drop is may be different than yours but they used the same standards for everyone else so it should be a wash.

It would seem to me that the biggest problem with Chambers production was simply that we did an awful job at getting him the ball in situations where he had a "normal" opportunity to make the catch. I guess the question is why that was the case?.. Did MM just not know how to use him? Did he just not have any chemistry with our QB’s? He was thrown to a great deal when the Blitz was on so maybe that was part of it, maybe the QB was trying to get it out to him to fast which led to bad throws…. I’m sure Joeys lack of downfield accuracy hurt Chambers more than our other receivers as he seemed to get those throws more than our other guys…. I don’t pretend to have all the answers here but I found these stats kind of interesting.

Hope that all made sense.

[Pinkerton Security]

Re: Chambers is overrated

wow....

[DraftBoy]

Re: Chambers is overrated

Chambers is an underrated WR, if Miami can give Green time we will all see what Chambers brings.

[dolphan117]

Re: Chambers is overrated

It still boggles my mind that an NFL offense could produce a year in which over half of the balls thrown to its number one receiver were unmatchable. Unbelievable. Boy am I glad Joey is gone and MM is no longer the OC. :shudder:

Edit-And just to add to my hatred of the MM offense look at what Lee Evans did under the genius.

First year-48 catches for 843 yards
Second year-48 catches for 743 yards
Last year with MM no longer being around-82 catches for 1292 yards.

Imaging that, MM leaves and Evans breaks out while Losman adds a full 20 points to his QB rating from the previous year. Jumps from 64.9 to 84.9 while his completion percentage jumped from 49.6% to 62.5%.

Chambers with Scott Linehan as OC in 2005
82 catches for 1118 yards while finally having the breakout year Dolphins fans have been waiting for.

In 06 with MM as OC-59 catches for 677 yards.

There is a reason MM went from being an OC to a HC to an OC and now a TE coach. The guy just isn't nearly as good as people thought he was.

[dolphan117]

Re: Chambers is overrated

And yes, some of that success from Losman and Evans can be chalked up to experience as both were entering their 3rd year which is when a lot of young guys light really goes on but I still think its a valid point that both played much better as soon as MM left.

[madness]

Re: Chambers is overrated

Rating receivers on metrics is fine...

if they happen to be robots.