Fantasy Football talk

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Fabiano's fantasy mailbag

By Michael Fabiano NFL.com Fantasy Expert

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I have the No. 10 overall selection in a 10-team league and want to take Peyton Manning and a running back with my first two picks. Should I take the Colts quarterback or take two backs instead and land someone like Marc Bulger or even Donovan McNabb (despite the risk) in the third round? Also, is Marshawn Lynch worth considering before the sixth round based on the fact that the Bills have the second-hardest schedule? -- C. Uecker; Bellevue, Wash.



Michael Fabiano: I'm not sure that Manning will even still be on the board at No. 10, but the decision to take him (if available) depends on the scoring system and the flow of the draft. First off, Manning has less first-round value in leagues that reward four points for touchdown passes. Second, it will be harder to pass on runners if the first nine owners ahead of you target the position. Even with the focus on backs, you should still be able to land a backfield that includes Joseph Addai, Rudi Johnson or Laurence Maroney and then add a quarterback such as Bulger or Tom Brady in the third round. Since this is only a 10-team league, however, it is a bit more viable an option to take Manning and wait on a second back until the third round because there should still be some attractive runners like Deuce McAllister, Edgerrin James and Lynch on the board. Lynch, who has been impressive in recent team workouts and is considered the favorite to start in Buffalo, is a terrific sleeper candidate and worth as much as a third- or fourth-round choice in all formats.

http://nfl.com/fantasy/story/10231731

Lynch, worth a 3rd or 4th rounder in fantasy ball?? I dont even think he'll start to begin the season, he may somewhere down the line, perhaps midseason, but I wouldnt take him that high even though i am in love with the dude.

[Roscoe'sChick&Waffs]

Re: Fantasy Football talk

I'll take Lynch in 3rd or 4th of my FF draft. He should get majority of carries.

[Wys Guy]

Re: Fantasy Football talk

Lynch will be starting by the time we play the Jets in week 4. You don't expend a 12th overall on a RB like Lynch and let him sit half the season.

And if for some odd reason the team did that, it would raise eyebrows as to what's wrong with him. It's not as if he's having to unseat Henry or Thurman here. It's Thomas. Thomas doesn't offer much.

If Lynch can't even offer what Thomas does and very soon this season, then it wasn't a good expenditure of a draft pick. I don't think that will happen.

Now he may not be much better than Thomas initially, but to be worse I just can't fathom happening.

Throw in his additional versatility which will be needed to operate Fairchild's offense and there's no way he isn't starting within the first four games, the Jets game at the latest if the coaches don't want him getting hammered vs. Denver, Pittsburgh, and NE's rushing Ds. But he'll line up as the starter by the Jets game at the latest.

The "test" for Lynch will be can he carry the ball 20+ times per game on average. You don't consume a 12th overall for a RB that can't.

Yet, at Cal he had more than 20 carries only three times in 13 games but had 17 or fewer carries 7 times in 13 games.

His YPC decreased from season to season the more carries he got. And against the two best and really only decent rushing Ds he faced, SC and UCLA, he averaged only 4.4 ypc, OK but far from great.

Also, as I pointed out in a recent piece, jockeying Thomas and Lynch in/out isn't exactly a seemless transition. Lynch has some moves, is a capable receiver out of the backfield, and is more versatile than Thomas by a long shot. Thomas is essentially an UTM rusher that's going to get you four yards BTTs. He doesn't have the corner speed or receiving assets that Lynch has.

So it isn't a simple "replacement in kind" when Thomas comes in to spell Lynch. Fairchild's offense can't run effectively with only Evans as a viable receiving option and Thomas in the backfield. Hell, it's questionable whether it can even be run with Lynch and Evans as the only two decent weapons. I say that it can't be, but we'll see.

[Saratoga Slim]

Re: Fantasy Football talk

Lynch will be starting by the time we play the Jets in week 4. You don't expend a 12th overall on a RB like Lynch and let him sit half the season.

And if for some odd reason the team did that, it would raise eyebrows as to what's wrong with him. It's not as if he's having to unseat Henry or Thurman here. It's Thomas. Thomas doesn't offer much.

If Lynch can't even offer what Thomas does and very soon this season, then it wasn't a good expenditure of a draft pick. I don't think that will happen.

Now he may not be much better than Thomas initially, but to be worse I just can't fathom happening.

Throw in his additional versatility which will be needed to operate Fairchild's offense and there's no way he isn't starting within the first four games, the Jets game at the latest if the coaches don't want him getting hammered vs. Denver, Pittsburgh, and NE's rushing Ds. But he'll line up as the starter by the Jets game at the latest.

The "test" for Lynch will be can he carry the ball 20+ times per game on average. You don't consume a 12th overall for a RB that can't.

Yet, at Cal he had more than 20 carries only three times in 13 games but had 17 or fewer carries 7 times in 13 games.

His YPC decreased from season to season the more carries he got. And against the two best and really only decent rushing Ds he faced, SC and UCLA, he averaged only 4.4 ypc, OK but far from great.

Also, as I pointed out in a recent piece, jockeying Thomas and Lynch in/out isn't exactly a seemless transition. Lynch has some moves, is a capable receiver out of the backfield, and is more versatile than Thomas by a long shot. Thomas is essentially an UTM rusher that's going to get you four yards BTTs. He doesn't have the corner speed or receiving assets that Lynch has.

So it isn't a simple "replacement in kind" when Thomas comes in to spell Lynch. Fairchild's offense can't run effectively with only Evans as a viable receiving option and Thomas in the backfield. Hell, it's questionable whether it can even be run with Lynch and Evans as the only two decent weapons. I say that it can't be, but we'll see.

I'm on board with most of the above.

I think to begin with we're going to see some version of the Duece McCallister/Reggie Bush show, with Thomas getting most of the up the middle running, and Lynch getting sweeps, catching passes etc. But you're right, we took Lynch to be the dynamic focal point of the offense, and I think he'll pretty quickly get the lion's share of the work. We'll probably do some situational rotating all season, but I don't think will be long before Lynch is the main man.

What I'm most curious about is Dwayne Wright's role. I would be very pleased to see him playing well enough to put Thomas on the bench.

[FlyingDutchman]

Re: Fantasy Football talk

I wouldnt take Lynch any earlier than 5th to 6th round. He very well could be a sleeper, but hes someone you could probably pick up late. I still cant decide whether to keep Willie Parker, or Mcherpe now that hes in Baltimore. I think could have a good year. Im leaning towards Paker though.

[ublinkwescore]

Re: Fantasy Football talk

Lynch will start from Day 1 - period - you heard it here first.

[FlyingDutchman]

Re: Fantasy Football talk

Check out this prediction from last year

08-05-2006, 04:17 PM	Fork Reply (w/Quote) Quick Reply #12
FlyingDutchman Registered User	Re: Let's talk some fantasy! By the way, for those who use defensive players in their league and return yards count, heres a little secret. Grab Devin Hester from Chicago. You probably wont even have to draft him, you can just pick him up. He will be returning kickoffs and punts (should be a lot of punts considering how nast their D is), as well as running in the nichol package. Hes my sleeper as the next Terrance Mcgee of fantasy. He should be good for at least 5 pts a game.

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[Wys Guy]

Re: Fantasy Football talk

I wouldnt take Lynch any earlier than 5th to 6th round. He very well could be a sleeper, but hes someone you could probably pick up late. I still cant decide whether to keep Willie Parker, or Mcherpe now that hes in Baltimore. I think could have a good year. Im leaning towards Paker though.

I totally agree. While he should start and get the full-time carries by week two or three, who knows what our brilliant coaching staff will actually do. Even so, while he's gotta be more than Thomas, I'm not expecting the world from him.

I broke down offensive film of him today to write a piece. I watched the SC and UCLA games, the toughest run D and toughest overall D that Cal played against. I see some issues and really wasn't all that impressed to be honest. IMO Lynch has a big edge in the passing game, but I was left thinking that he'll be a very average RB in terms of rushing. I wrote an entire piece breaking down various aspects of his play, but in a nutshell he goes down on first contact as a rule and really isn't all that fast. He does go forward when he gets the ball however and has exceptional field vision.

IMO where he has the opportunity to shine is in the passing game. I can see him busting or eventually becoming an above average RB but nothing special. I would be pretty surprised if he turned into a top-10 RB in the NFL.

I'm on board with most of the above.

I think to begin with we're going to see some version of the Duece McCallister/Reggie Bush show, with Thomas getting most of the up the middle running, and Lynch getting sweeps, catching passes etc. But you're right, we took Lynch to be the dynamic focal point of the offense, and I think he'll pretty quickly get the lion's share of the work. We'll probably do some situational rotating all season, but I don't think will be long before Lynch is the main man.

What I'm most curious about is Dwayne Wright's role. I would be very pleased to see him playing well enough to put Thomas on the bench.

I'm curious for sure to see how this all works out. He got pretty decent line play at Cal. We didn't provide that for our RBs last year. Lynch doesn't really seem to do much on his own. I'm sure he probably lit up some of the weak Ds in the college ranks, but this ain't that league.

It should be a very interesting season.