Losman is underrated

[Pinkerton Security]

Bulger still not appreciated

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<!-- end promo plug --> <!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: July 25, 2007
Comment (http://myespn.go.com/conversation/story?id=2947314)
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Print (http://proxy.espn.go.com/espn/print?id=2947314&type=story) <!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Quarterbacks are the subject of this week's installment of overrated and underrated players. No position in the league is more celebrated or criticized, so emotions tend to run high when putting together quarterback ratings.
<!---------------------INLINE TABLE (BEGIN)-------------------->
<!---------------------INLINE TABLE (END)--------------------> I try to take as much emotion out of the equation as possible by focusing my analysis on five main metrics: Yards per attempt, success percentage, SYPA, bad-decision percentage and weighted bad-decision percentage. These metrics cover just about every positive and negative a quarterback could bring to his team.
As has been the case in each of the previous installments, the rankings are based on how each player's 2006 metrics compare with his reputation. Pro Bowl berths are given a lot of weight in determining the perception of a player.


Overrated Quarterbacks

(http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6763)
Philip Rivers (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6763)
Rivers is a good quarterback, but I am not yet convinced he has reached the level of greatness his Pro Bowl berth would indicate.
His performance faded after about the midway point of the 2006 season. In the first 10 games last year, Rivers' composite passer rating was 99.7. Over the last six games, the rating dropped to 77.6.
It wasn't just his overall performance that suffered. I did a study late last year in an ESPN.com article (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=2709641) that showed Rivers had more than a few issues when facing a blitz. In a five-game stretch from weeks 11-16, Rivers had a passer rating of 23.8 on plays when the Chargers' opponent blitzed.
If Rivers had a long history of playing well, I might be able to overlook a late-season slump, but he has played well for only half of one season. I believe he needs to do more before being considered one of the league's great quarterbacks.
Brett Favre (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=1025)
Many of Favre's 2006 metrics were among the worst in the league. His 6.2 YPA put him in the company of Charlie Frye (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=7243) and Jason Campbell (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=7201). His total of 18 bad decisions was tied for the fourth-most in the league, and his 62 combined interceptions and near interceptions was easily the most in the NFL, even surpassing the much-maligned Rex Grossman (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6358). Favre simply isn't anywhere near the quarterback he was even just three years ago.
Others:
Jon Kitna (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=4157): Kitna gets a ton of credit for his strong leadership, but his 20 bad decisions ranked last in the league, and his 38 bad-decision points ranked next to last. Add in his nine lost fumbles last year and it is clear his turnovers and mistakes more than made up for his superb leadership skills.
Trent Green (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=2547): Green showed a lot of courage in coming back from a severe concussion last year, but his metrics after he returned were quite poor. His 6.5 YPA tied for 23rd in the league. His 60.4 success percentage was only slightly better than David Garrard (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5994)'s and was worse than Brad Johnson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=2160)'s. His 3.9 bad decision percentage was the 33rd-worst. The metrics indicate Green might not be the savior Dolphins fans are hoping he will be.



Underrated Quarterbacks

(http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5197)
Marc Bulger (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5197)
I know that Bulger made the Pro Bowl last year, but I believe he still doesn't get his due as one of the NFL's best quarterbacks. His 7.5 YPA was the eighth-best in the league and his 92.9 passer rating was seventh-best. Bulger had the fourth-lowest bad-decision percentage and the fifth-lowest weighted bad-decision percentage. He also had the fifth-lowest interception/near interception percentage. That Bulger was able to post these numbers in a new offensive system, and without Mike Martz calling the plays, says a lot for his ability.

(http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6781)
J.P. Losman (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6781)
Losman might be the best deep ball quarterback in the NFL today. His 698 bomb passing yards were the second-most in the league. He also had the fifth-highest YPA at that depth level. It isn't just a high YPA level that makes Losman a great vertical passer. He also had zero bad decisions on his bomb passes. That total wasn't a statistical anomaly either, as Losman's 33 bomb pass throws were the fifth-most in that category. If Jason Peters (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=7122) can keep Losman's blindside protected this year as well as he did late last year, Losman should be able to do even better on long passes in 2007.

Others:
Chad Pennington (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5047): The reason Pennington qualifies for this list is that he is a much better vertical passer than people think. He ranked 15th and 12th in bomb and deep-pass YPA last year. Pennington's 9.8 YPA on deep out passes was also the seventh-highest figure in the league. These metrics prove Pennington is able to beat a defense even on the toughest passes a quarterback has to throw.
Tony Romo (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6624): Romo was like Rivers in that his end-of-season performance tailed off, but his reputation seemed to take a much bigger hit than Rivers. This shouldn't have been the case, as Romo's end-of-season metrics were still among the best in the NFL. His 8.4 YPA was the highest in that category. Romo also had the second-highest success percentage and the highest SYPA rating.

[cocamide]

It's always nice to hear positive things. We can thank Evans too for JP being able to throw the long ball so well.

[mayotm]

The national perception about JP is slowly starting to change. The national media has actually had some decent things to say.

[OpIv37]

Well, being able to throw the deep ball alone doesn't make a QB good. Losman has some areas to work on.

That being said, I agree that Losman is underrated. I'm surrounded by Redskins and Ravens fans, and they all view Losman as the flailing, confused liability that he was in 2005. They don't realize that in '06, Losman was servicable most of the time and excellent at certain times.

I don't see Losman ever being an elite QB but I think he can be solid for us-consistent enough that teams can't cheat against the run and enough big- play ability to keep us in games.

[OpIv37]

one more thing- when it's all said and done, JP Losman will have a better career than Eli Manning.

[MikeInRoch]

one more thing- when it's all said and done, JP Losman will have a better career than Eli Manning.

No argument at all there.

[Pinkerton Security]

Well, being able to throw the deep ball alone doesn't make a QB good. Losman has some areas to work on.

That being said, I agree that Losman is underrated. I'm surrounded by Redskins and Ravens fans, and they all view Losman as the flailing, confused liability that he was in 2005. They don't realize that in '06, Losman was servicable most of the time and excellent at certain times.

I don't see Losman ever being an elite QB but I think he can be solid for us-consistent enough that teams can't cheat against the run and enough big- play ability to keep us in games.

I am looking forward to the Cowboys game, my cousin has the same perception you mentioned about Losman, and he thinks that Wade's D is gonna eat JP alive. They could, but I really think JP is gonna surprise him, as well as lots of others.

[Stewie]

I love watching losman throw deep. The kid is effortless.

[RedEyE]

How is Vince Young not on the overrated list?

[mayotm]

How is Vince Young not on the overrated list?I feel Vince Young certainly still has a lot to prove. However, he played pretty damn well for a rookie. He didn't have a good QB rating, but he had that team winning. Also, he has a knack for performing well in the clutch. He sure did kill the Bills.

[cocamide]

one more thing- when it's all said and done, JP Losman will have a better career than Eli Manning.

That might not be saying much though.

[OpIv37]

I am looking forward to the Cowboys game, my cousin has the same perception you mentioned about Losman, and he thinks that Wade's D is gonna eat JP alive. They could, but I really think JP is gonna surprise him, as well as lots of others.

the Cowboys game makes me nervous because Buffalo always seems to struggle in national games. I don't know why- I think it might have something to do with just nerves and a lack of experience being in the spotlight for most of the guys.

[cocamide]

the Cowboys game makes me nervous because Buffalo always seems to struggle in national games. I don't know why- I think it might have something to do with just nerves and a lack of experience being in the spotlight for most of the guys.

I agree. I can think of the Sunday night game against the Dolphins about 3-4 years ago. I think it was the 3rd game of the season, and we had just beaten the Pats and Jags. The expectations were high and our O let us down. Then there was the Pats game 2 years ago on, or around, Halloween. We were pretty much dominating the game, but you knew at some point we'd blow it. Out of all the games this year, I hope the Bills play the best against Dallas.

[ublinkwescore]

one more thing- when it's all said and done, JP Losman will have a better career than Eli Manning.

Way to go out on a limb there buddy.

[ublinkwescore]

I feel Vince Young certainly still has a lot to prove. However, he played pretty damn well for a rookie. He didn't have a good QB rating, but he had that team winning. Also, he has a knack for performing well in the clutch. He sure did kill the Bills.

Vince Young didn't start winning until his D stepped up and took a lot of pressure off of him - he still has a ways to go before he garners my respect as a legit QB.

[ddaryl]

Barning injury I really don't see any reason why JP couldn't end up being the Bills greatest QB.

A couple more years a few added pieces and there won't be no stopping him IMO. I fail to see what this young QB with his limited pro experience has done to think he'll just be serviceable. He throws a great ball, he doesn't thrown many INT's or make lots of mistakes especially considerng how sucky the OL has been in front of him for most of his career, and how crappy his run suppport has been to date.

He is just now getting a supporting cast worth while, and he has never worked within the same system for 2 years straight as of yet.

I think lots of Bills fans are foolishly selling him short.

[Yasgur's Farm]

td?

[mikemac2001]

one more thing- when it's all said and done, JP Losman will have a better career than Eli Manning.


and big ben ....i hate big ben

[Ed]

For a guy that throws so many deep passes, Losmans overall completion percentage of 62.5 is looking even more impressive.

[B-DON]

the Cowboys game makes me nervous because Buffalo always seems to struggle in national games. I don't know why- I think it might have something to do with just nerves and a lack of experience being in the spotlight for most of the guys.


cuz our team has sucked the past decade, this is our break out game. watch the media jump all over losmans nuts once this game is over

[justasportsfan]

cuz our team has sucked the past decade, this is our break out game. watch the media jump all over losmans nuts once this game is overthat's for sure. Don't forget, they are "america's team" and Romo is the new media darling.

[TacklingDummy]

td?

:wave:

Im not falling for the bait today.