LifetimeBillsFan
07-30-2007, 06:17 AM
While I am concerned that, at least at present, it appears that the Bills may end up going into this season with the same DT rotation that they had last year, after careful consideration, I think that the Bills accomplished pretty much what they wanted and managed to squeeze just about as much out of these as they could have.
Here's why I have come to this conclusion (those of you who don't like to read posts with lengthy analysis can skip this part if you are not inclined to reading :lol:):
The TKO/Holcomb trade: Overview
To understand this trade, from the perspective of the Bills' FO, you have to go back to the 2005 season.
While it is safe to say that JP Losman was not ready to lead that team to the playoffs when the season began, the fact is that, with E.Moulds as its public face, there was a full-scale revolt in the Bills' lockerroom against Losman being given the starting QB job instead of K.Holcomb. While Moulds was the guy who openly led the revolt in the media, it became apparent, as the season wore on, that he was correct in saying that he had the support of others in the Bills' lockerroom.
While these players were right about Losman not being ready and about the coaching staff being inept, the fact is that the players didn't get the job done on the field either. The result was that, with "the inmates trying to run the asylum", the team had a disastrous season that left the lockerroom fractured and in disarray.
M.Levy and D.Jauron were brought in to clean up this mess. And, the only way to do that was to clean out the lockerroom by getting rid of as many of the "lockerroom lawyers" and those players who were not willing to get on board with the new direction and attitude that Levy and Jauron were bringing to the team as they could...as quickly as they could--regardless of how talented or what kind of reputations those players had.
No matter what was said publicly by Levy or Jauron or anyone else at OBD, that was Job # 1. Of course they could not say this publicly in so many words, but actions speak louder than words and this was apparent from their actions in just the first couple of months of the Levy Regime. Ownership and down the line to front office management was determined to re-establish control over the team (and, by extension, the lockerroom). And, that could only be done by getting rid of players who were obviously part of the lockerroom revolt (Adams and Moulds), those who may have quietly supported or gone along with it who were no longer the players that they once were on the field and could be replaced (Milloy and Vincent), and those who were not going to get on board with the new program that was being instituted (McGahee).
While this meant purging the team of a lot of talent and many high-profile players, it was something that Ownership and Management understood had to be done. Why, some may ask. Because in the last 60 years only one team has had a lockerroom revolt and won a championship. That was the Cleveland Browns in 1964. And, that team was not only united in its hatred of its Head Coach, but led by Jim Brown and its other captains and did not have a QB controversy to deal with internally. For all of its high-profile players, the 2005 Bills shared little in common with that 1964 Browns team both on and off the field (when 3 Pro Bowl veterans couldn't figure out who to cover and left an undersized rookie to cover C.Chambers on the winning 2 point conversion in Miami that should tell you all that you need to know in this regard).
While, obviously, any team would like to replace the talent that it is losing or letting go with equal or superior talent, when you are trying to clean up a mess like the Bills were as a team at the end of the 2005 season, it is not always possible to do that when you are faced with having to purge so many talented and not-so-talented players. You have to hope that some of your younger players will step up not only their game, but to take more of a leadership role. And, you have to hope that you are not just good, but also lucky in drafting new players and in the free agent signings that you bring in.
But, even at that, you may not be able to get rid of everyone who may have been at least somewhat supportive of the lockerroom revolt. You have to hope that some of the team leaders will get on board with the new program. And, especially if you don't know what you really have in your kid QB, you have to try to cover your bets as much as you possibly can.
So, you keep a guy like Fletcher-Baker around in the hope that he will not only fit in with your new system and set a good example for your younger players, but that he will embrace the role of "elder statesman" and not talk too much about "wanting to win now" and all of his friends that you have jettisoned as part of your purge. You keep a guy like McGahee around, hoping he will get with the program, because he is your most proven offensive weapon. You keep a Holcomb around, even though he was the focal point of the revolt and certainly did nothing to help quash it, because you don't know what you have in your kid QB or whether, after the beating he took, he will be able to bounce back and be a leader for your offense. And, you keep a guy like Spikes around, even though he is starting to complain about all of the friends that you are shipping out of town in your purge, because he really wasn't a part of the debacle that occurred on the field in 2005 and you are hoping that he will get with the program and return to his pre-injury form, when he was clearly the team's best defensive player.
That's how the Bills went into last season.
And, we all know the results. While McGahee didn't always run hard and didn't get with the program, L.Evans had a breakout season supplanting McGahee as the team's best offensive threat and Losman emerged as the clear-cut choice as starting QB. Fletcher-Baker provided good leadership for the Bills' "kiddie corps" on defense and had another good statistical season, but wasn't a great fit in their new defensive system, made a couple of comments to the media complaining about all of the vets the team was getting rid of, and ended the season looking for more money and years than it would have been prudent for the team to invest in him. Spikes came back, but was injured again for much of the season and was virtually out-played by a rookie 6th round draft pick while he was out. In addition, Spikes made comments on more than one occasion during and after the season complaining about all of his friends that had been jettisoned by the team and, then, went to management and asked to be traded with two years and over $ 10 million remaining on his contract.
The Holcomb/ Spikes Trade: Holcomb
Holcomb's tenure in Buffalo was ended when JP Losman emerged as the team's starting QB last preseason. While C.Nall didn't really show enough to establish himself as the team's # 2 QB, it was apparent that Holcomb was not a fit in S.Fairchild's offense and his days in a Bills uniform were numbered. With the Bills wanting to bring in a young QB that they could tutor in Fairchild's offense, Holcomb was going to be cut. To get anything for Holcomb in a trade--even a dirty jock strap--has to be counted as a plus. For all intents and purposes, in effect, whatever the Bills end up coming away with from these two trades can be seen as being what they got in exchange for Spikes.
The Holcomb/Spikes Trade: Spikes
I know that before his injury TKO was the Bills best defensive player, that he was one of the most dynamic players the team has ever had, that he is a real warrior, that he has a truly engaging personality and was one of the most popular players on the team in recent years. I also am very well-aware of the argument that it can take two years for a player to recover fully from an Achilles heel injury--I made that argument myself on more than one occasion. And, I understand that Spikes is a guy who has the temperment to be a fiery team leader.
But, keeping in mind what I said was Job # 1 for the Levy Regime, let's look at TKO from the perspective of Bills management--and the management of other teams around the league--for a moment.
Despite being one of the highest paid players on their defense, for the last two seasons the Bills have gotten almost nothing out of Spikes. When he was on the field last season, his play was equaled by that of a rookie 6th round draft choice--whose development as a player would only be stunted by keeping TKO around because, if the Bills were to keep Spikes, he would have to be in the starting lineup or he would make such a fuss that it would adversely impact the team.
While it is true that it is possible that TKO may, like J.Peterson, regain his pre-injury All-Pro form, it is equally possible that he may not fully regain that form or may be prone to other injuries. The team might end up paying TKO more than $ 10 million more over the next two seasons only to end up with an average player or one who would spend a lot of time on the bench injured.
Moreover, there's no guarantee that Spikes would be a good fit in their defensive system where the LBs blitz very little and drop into coverage a lot. TKO is a player who really flourishes in a system where the LBs blitz a lot (Philly!) and can free-lance a bit more than in a Cover 2, where it is important for the LBs to take the right angles to the ball and make their "fits" in the run defense. Spikes seemed to have some difficulty with this last season, although he did have a good final game.
And, then, there is the question of TKO's leadership and winning attitude. Like it or not, for as good a player as Spikes has been, the fact remains that TKO has never been on a playoff team. Yes, some of that can be excused by the fact that he has played with some pretty pitiful offensive and defensive teammates, but still he has been a part of some defenses that have shown a tendency to collapse when the game is on the line late in the fourth quarter. And, for all of his obvious on-field fire, the fact remains that, on the two occasions when he addressed his teammates at halftime of close games, exhorting them to play better, on both occasions, his defensive mates left the lockerroom and immediately gave up crucial scores to the opposition before collapsing. Some leadership...either he's not much of a leader or they were not willing to follow him--in either event, it's an indication that something may be lacking in this regard.
Add to that the fact that, even after it was apparent that Levy was getting rid of players who were at the heart of the 2005 lockerroom revolt, Spikes took it upon himself to mention, on more than one occasion, that he was unhappy with the fact that the team was getting rid of so many of his friends. In at least one interview last season, TKO questioned the direction that the team was going in. This is not what you want from anyone, let alone someone who may be in a position to be a leader of your team when you are trying to re-establish control over a lockerroom that has recently had a revolt and you want to create a new and different atmosphere in your lockerroom. If you are trying to get everyone to buy into the new system and atmosphere, you simply can't have a high-profile, would-be or potential leader, going around complaining about the direction the team is going in and moaning about the fact that you got rid of his friends on the team. That is precisely the kind of player that you cannot have in your lockerroom!
And, finally, there is the question of money and playing time. As aforementioned, Spikes was scheduled to make more than $ 4 million this season and more than $ 6 million next year with no guarantee that he would be healthy enough to play effectively enough to be worth that kind of money. If the Bills were to have kept TKO, they would have had to start him and pay him, regardless of how well his injury would allow him to play or how good of a fit he was in the defense. That would mean keeping Ellison on the bench for most of this season, even though he played as well as Spikes did last season and, being younger, has more potential to develop as a player in a system that he where he is a good fit. If the Bills were to have done that, however, Spikes would have immediately begun to lobby publicly for a contract extension after this season, regardless of whether his play warranted it or not. With L.Evans and JP Losman coming close to the end of their contracts, this would have been a problem, especially with Spikes entering those post-30 years when LBs begin to slow down and TKO's injury history.
So, with Ellison showing promise and Crowell ready to take over his spot in the lineup, why deal with the headaches and uncertainties? Especially when TKO decided to approach management and ask for a trade.
By the time word got out that TKO had asked the Bills to trade him, there had already been speculation in the local media that the Bills might cut Spikes rather than pay him the more than $ 10 million that was remaining on his contract. If the local media was smart enough to see that as a possibility, you can be sure that there were some GMs around the NFL who also were aware of it as well.
TKO's trade value had already been driven down by his less-than-stellar play last season to begin with. The possibility that he might be a salary cap casualty further reduced his trade value. And, then, with news getting out that Spikes had asked the team to trade him, his trade value hit rock bottom.
With the influx of young, athletic LBs coming into the NFL this year from the draft, it was going to be difficult for the Bills to get much of anything for TKO under the circumstances. For those who like to compare TKO's potential recovery to that of J.Peterson, consider the fact that Peterson, a former Pro Bowler like Spikes, was signed by Seattle as a free agent--the 49ers got nothing for him. While Darwin Walker is no All-Pro and not the run-stopper that the Bills need at DT, he has been a decent pass-rusher and could have helped the Bills by freeing up John McCargo to rotate in at the 1-tech spot. So, there was some potential value to the Bills there, despite the fact that Walker was looking to have his contract extended and reworked.
While I am sure that the Bills would have liked to get a guarantee of more than a 6th round pick should Walker refuse to report, in addition to the 7th round pick that Philly threw into the deal, at least, in getting that 6th round pick worked into the deal, the Bills were able to "set a floor" for the trade, insuring that they would at least end up with a 6th and 7th round pick in exchange for TKO. Not great, but a lot more than San Francisco got for J.Peterson. And, in the process, the Bills got rid of two players that they very well may have ended up cutting in order to finish the task that was Job # 1 for the Levy Regime when it took over the team early in 2006.
The Walker Trade: Overview
As we all know, Philly sent Darwin Walker to the Bills because he wanted them to extend and rework his contract and, having a surplus of DTs, the Eagles were not going to do that. We all, also, know that Walker refused to report to the Bills for that same reason.
While, as I have pointed out, Walker could have helped the Bills at least address, if not solve, their problems at DT and it is hard to understand why the Bills would have traded for Walker, knowing what he wanted, if they were not willing to give him the kind of contract extension that he wanted, there is now some evidence that it might have been difficult, if not impossible, for the Bills to come to an agreement with Walker that would not have caused huge problems for the team in its dealings with other key players.
It should be obvious that Walker and his agent have been tracking the market for DTs around the NFL since he began demanding that his contract be extended and reworked after last season. Knowing the amount of money that Philly has invested in M.Patterson and B.Bunkley, Walker and his agent had to know that Philly was not about to give them what they were asking for. With the Eagles having a surplus of DTs, that could only mean that Philly would either try to trade or cut Walker. Either way, Walker could force a team to acceed to his contract demands.
To avoid losing Walker and getting nothing in return, Philly allowed Walker to shop himself around the league last spring. But, with teams knowing the situation, it appears that the best deal that Philly could come up with was the TKO/Holcomb trade in which they agreed to give up a 6th round pick if Walker refused to report to the Bills by Aug. 5.
If the Bills had immediately given Walker what he wanted, it is possible that he might have been happy to sign with Buffalo and reported to the OTAs. While it can be argued that that is what the Bills should have done, in truth, we really have no idea what kind of numbers would have satisfied Walker and his agent at that point--we just know that what the Bills offered was not acceptable to Walker--or what kind of effect that would have had on the Bills' salary structure. It can be argued that, if the Bills had extended and reworked Walker's contract, it would have prompted Pro Bowler A.Schobel and rising star J.Peters to demand that their contracts also be extended and reworked and complicated efforts by the Bills to possbily extend the contracts of L.Evans and JP Losman after this season.
Regardless, in the following weeks and months, Walker's position was bolstered and the Bills' position was seriously weakened by the contract that C.Redding signed with Detroit, by the injury suffered by R.Coleman, and by the legal problems and suspensions of T.Johnson and a couple of other DTs around the league. With the market for a quality NFL DT getting bigger and the price for one going up, there was no reason for Walker and his agent to lessen their demands and less likelihood that the Bills would be able to meet them. If the Bills did not meet Walker's demands or trade him to a team that would or that he would rather play for, all he and his agent had to do was wait until his rights reverted back to Philly and the Eagles were forced to cut him. Then, as a free agent, he could go to the team of his choice and/or sell himself to the highest bidder. Walker was in the best position possible. And, if the Bills wanted to get more for him than Philly's 6th round pick, it was up to them to do something.
But, of course, with everyone in the NFL knowing the situation, the Bills were in a tough spot.
The D.Walker Trade: Walker to Chicago
According to ESPN's story on the trade (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2953545&campaign=rss&source=NFLHeadlines ), Chicago was one of the teams that Walker talked to about a trade last spring. Unlike with the Bills, Walker's agent says that Walker will not hold out and is willing to take a one year deal from the Bears.
What that tells me is that Walker never had any intention of playing for the Bills unless he got a mega-millions extension from Buffalo. Based on that, I do not believe that the Bills could have satisfied Walker without damaging their salary structure and/or team unity. In which case, trading Walker (or letting him go back to Philly) was the only sensible option for them.
Trading Walker to Chicago and out of the AFC is a good move. While it does strengthen the Bears and, if Walker only signs a one year deal he could be back out on the market next offseason, Miami was one of the teams reported to be most interested in signing Walker if he went back to Philly and was cut. And, there are other teams in the AFC that might have been interested in Walker that the Bills would end up contending with not just this year, but in the future. Walker obviously likes the Bears and may consider staying with them if he has a good season in Chicago.
Getting a fifth round pick from Chicago is, obviously, better than getting the 6th round pick from Philly that Buffalo would have gotten had Walker reverted back to the Eagles, so that is a plus. The fact that it is a conditional pick that could go up based on playing time/performance is also a plus. I know that the Bears love their young DTs, but, with I.Scott, A.Boone and T.Johnson gone, Walker should get plenty of playing time, if he can stay healthy, with A.Garay and D.Davoracek competing for playing time with him. And, Walker's stats should definitely benefit from playing next to T.Harris when he isn't spelling him. I don't know what the conditions are for the Bills to get a better pick from Chicago, but I think there is at least a fair chance that they could end up with a 4th round pick out of the deal--which would be terrific.
CONCLUSION:
I know that there are a lot of Bills fans who think that the Bills "woulda/coulda/shoulda" gotten more for Takeo Spikes than what shapes up now to be a 5th round pick from Chicago and a 7th round pick from Philly. But, under the circumstances and given what SF got for J.Peterson in a similar situation, I think they pretty much got about as much as they possibly could have gotten and have made their lockerroom stronger by sending a message that those players who work hard and buy into what the team is trying to do (ie C.Kelsay, B.Moorman, etc.) will be rewarded, while those who don't will end up playing elsewhere.
Now, of course, none of this has helped to address the weakness of the interior of the Bills' defensive line. And, I must admit that this concerns me--especially the fact that it may mean that T.Anderson may still have a place on the roster. In my view, that means that John McCargo will play a huge role in determining just how good or bad the Bills defense will be this season. He must stay healthy all season and perform at a high level all the way through.
I also think that the departure of D.Walker means that the Bills will be looking closely at those teams that do have a surplus of DTs on their rosters. I would not be surprised to see them trade for a DT using one or more of the picks that they have in next year's draft or, if they are unable to do that, pick up a DT off of the waiver wire during the preseason.
If the Bills do not add a DT before the end of the preseason, there is one thing that does give me hope that they might still get better play from their DTs this season than they did last year: while they were not "good enough",the Bills did do a significantly better job of stopping the run in their final game against the Ravens with Jason Jefferson in the lineup instead of Tim Anderson. I know that's more of a comment on how bad Anderson is than how good Jefferson is, but it's at least something.... That and the fact that teams that switch to a Tampa Cover 2 tend to be much better their second season in the system than the first are at least reasons to hope.
Even though I expect the Bills young players--their rookies in particular, but also, on occasion, their second year players--to make some mistakes, I do expect them to be better, as a unit, at stopping the run, especially as the season goes on, than they were last year.
Here's why I have come to this conclusion (those of you who don't like to read posts with lengthy analysis can skip this part if you are not inclined to reading :lol:):
The TKO/Holcomb trade: Overview
To understand this trade, from the perspective of the Bills' FO, you have to go back to the 2005 season.
While it is safe to say that JP Losman was not ready to lead that team to the playoffs when the season began, the fact is that, with E.Moulds as its public face, there was a full-scale revolt in the Bills' lockerroom against Losman being given the starting QB job instead of K.Holcomb. While Moulds was the guy who openly led the revolt in the media, it became apparent, as the season wore on, that he was correct in saying that he had the support of others in the Bills' lockerroom.
While these players were right about Losman not being ready and about the coaching staff being inept, the fact is that the players didn't get the job done on the field either. The result was that, with "the inmates trying to run the asylum", the team had a disastrous season that left the lockerroom fractured and in disarray.
M.Levy and D.Jauron were brought in to clean up this mess. And, the only way to do that was to clean out the lockerroom by getting rid of as many of the "lockerroom lawyers" and those players who were not willing to get on board with the new direction and attitude that Levy and Jauron were bringing to the team as they could...as quickly as they could--regardless of how talented or what kind of reputations those players had.
No matter what was said publicly by Levy or Jauron or anyone else at OBD, that was Job # 1. Of course they could not say this publicly in so many words, but actions speak louder than words and this was apparent from their actions in just the first couple of months of the Levy Regime. Ownership and down the line to front office management was determined to re-establish control over the team (and, by extension, the lockerroom). And, that could only be done by getting rid of players who were obviously part of the lockerroom revolt (Adams and Moulds), those who may have quietly supported or gone along with it who were no longer the players that they once were on the field and could be replaced (Milloy and Vincent), and those who were not going to get on board with the new program that was being instituted (McGahee).
While this meant purging the team of a lot of talent and many high-profile players, it was something that Ownership and Management understood had to be done. Why, some may ask. Because in the last 60 years only one team has had a lockerroom revolt and won a championship. That was the Cleveland Browns in 1964. And, that team was not only united in its hatred of its Head Coach, but led by Jim Brown and its other captains and did not have a QB controversy to deal with internally. For all of its high-profile players, the 2005 Bills shared little in common with that 1964 Browns team both on and off the field (when 3 Pro Bowl veterans couldn't figure out who to cover and left an undersized rookie to cover C.Chambers on the winning 2 point conversion in Miami that should tell you all that you need to know in this regard).
While, obviously, any team would like to replace the talent that it is losing or letting go with equal or superior talent, when you are trying to clean up a mess like the Bills were as a team at the end of the 2005 season, it is not always possible to do that when you are faced with having to purge so many talented and not-so-talented players. You have to hope that some of your younger players will step up not only their game, but to take more of a leadership role. And, you have to hope that you are not just good, but also lucky in drafting new players and in the free agent signings that you bring in.
But, even at that, you may not be able to get rid of everyone who may have been at least somewhat supportive of the lockerroom revolt. You have to hope that some of the team leaders will get on board with the new program. And, especially if you don't know what you really have in your kid QB, you have to try to cover your bets as much as you possibly can.
So, you keep a guy like Fletcher-Baker around in the hope that he will not only fit in with your new system and set a good example for your younger players, but that he will embrace the role of "elder statesman" and not talk too much about "wanting to win now" and all of his friends that you have jettisoned as part of your purge. You keep a guy like McGahee around, hoping he will get with the program, because he is your most proven offensive weapon. You keep a Holcomb around, even though he was the focal point of the revolt and certainly did nothing to help quash it, because you don't know what you have in your kid QB or whether, after the beating he took, he will be able to bounce back and be a leader for your offense. And, you keep a guy like Spikes around, even though he is starting to complain about all of the friends that you are shipping out of town in your purge, because he really wasn't a part of the debacle that occurred on the field in 2005 and you are hoping that he will get with the program and return to his pre-injury form, when he was clearly the team's best defensive player.
That's how the Bills went into last season.
And, we all know the results. While McGahee didn't always run hard and didn't get with the program, L.Evans had a breakout season supplanting McGahee as the team's best offensive threat and Losman emerged as the clear-cut choice as starting QB. Fletcher-Baker provided good leadership for the Bills' "kiddie corps" on defense and had another good statistical season, but wasn't a great fit in their new defensive system, made a couple of comments to the media complaining about all of the vets the team was getting rid of, and ended the season looking for more money and years than it would have been prudent for the team to invest in him. Spikes came back, but was injured again for much of the season and was virtually out-played by a rookie 6th round draft pick while he was out. In addition, Spikes made comments on more than one occasion during and after the season complaining about all of his friends that had been jettisoned by the team and, then, went to management and asked to be traded with two years and over $ 10 million remaining on his contract.
The Holcomb/ Spikes Trade: Holcomb
Holcomb's tenure in Buffalo was ended when JP Losman emerged as the team's starting QB last preseason. While C.Nall didn't really show enough to establish himself as the team's # 2 QB, it was apparent that Holcomb was not a fit in S.Fairchild's offense and his days in a Bills uniform were numbered. With the Bills wanting to bring in a young QB that they could tutor in Fairchild's offense, Holcomb was going to be cut. To get anything for Holcomb in a trade--even a dirty jock strap--has to be counted as a plus. For all intents and purposes, in effect, whatever the Bills end up coming away with from these two trades can be seen as being what they got in exchange for Spikes.
The Holcomb/Spikes Trade: Spikes
I know that before his injury TKO was the Bills best defensive player, that he was one of the most dynamic players the team has ever had, that he is a real warrior, that he has a truly engaging personality and was one of the most popular players on the team in recent years. I also am very well-aware of the argument that it can take two years for a player to recover fully from an Achilles heel injury--I made that argument myself on more than one occasion. And, I understand that Spikes is a guy who has the temperment to be a fiery team leader.
But, keeping in mind what I said was Job # 1 for the Levy Regime, let's look at TKO from the perspective of Bills management--and the management of other teams around the league--for a moment.
Despite being one of the highest paid players on their defense, for the last two seasons the Bills have gotten almost nothing out of Spikes. When he was on the field last season, his play was equaled by that of a rookie 6th round draft choice--whose development as a player would only be stunted by keeping TKO around because, if the Bills were to keep Spikes, he would have to be in the starting lineup or he would make such a fuss that it would adversely impact the team.
While it is true that it is possible that TKO may, like J.Peterson, regain his pre-injury All-Pro form, it is equally possible that he may not fully regain that form or may be prone to other injuries. The team might end up paying TKO more than $ 10 million more over the next two seasons only to end up with an average player or one who would spend a lot of time on the bench injured.
Moreover, there's no guarantee that Spikes would be a good fit in their defensive system where the LBs blitz very little and drop into coverage a lot. TKO is a player who really flourishes in a system where the LBs blitz a lot (Philly!) and can free-lance a bit more than in a Cover 2, where it is important for the LBs to take the right angles to the ball and make their "fits" in the run defense. Spikes seemed to have some difficulty with this last season, although he did have a good final game.
And, then, there is the question of TKO's leadership and winning attitude. Like it or not, for as good a player as Spikes has been, the fact remains that TKO has never been on a playoff team. Yes, some of that can be excused by the fact that he has played with some pretty pitiful offensive and defensive teammates, but still he has been a part of some defenses that have shown a tendency to collapse when the game is on the line late in the fourth quarter. And, for all of his obvious on-field fire, the fact remains that, on the two occasions when he addressed his teammates at halftime of close games, exhorting them to play better, on both occasions, his defensive mates left the lockerroom and immediately gave up crucial scores to the opposition before collapsing. Some leadership...either he's not much of a leader or they were not willing to follow him--in either event, it's an indication that something may be lacking in this regard.
Add to that the fact that, even after it was apparent that Levy was getting rid of players who were at the heart of the 2005 lockerroom revolt, Spikes took it upon himself to mention, on more than one occasion, that he was unhappy with the fact that the team was getting rid of so many of his friends. In at least one interview last season, TKO questioned the direction that the team was going in. This is not what you want from anyone, let alone someone who may be in a position to be a leader of your team when you are trying to re-establish control over a lockerroom that has recently had a revolt and you want to create a new and different atmosphere in your lockerroom. If you are trying to get everyone to buy into the new system and atmosphere, you simply can't have a high-profile, would-be or potential leader, going around complaining about the direction the team is going in and moaning about the fact that you got rid of his friends on the team. That is precisely the kind of player that you cannot have in your lockerroom!
And, finally, there is the question of money and playing time. As aforementioned, Spikes was scheduled to make more than $ 4 million this season and more than $ 6 million next year with no guarantee that he would be healthy enough to play effectively enough to be worth that kind of money. If the Bills were to have kept TKO, they would have had to start him and pay him, regardless of how well his injury would allow him to play or how good of a fit he was in the defense. That would mean keeping Ellison on the bench for most of this season, even though he played as well as Spikes did last season and, being younger, has more potential to develop as a player in a system that he where he is a good fit. If the Bills were to have done that, however, Spikes would have immediately begun to lobby publicly for a contract extension after this season, regardless of whether his play warranted it or not. With L.Evans and JP Losman coming close to the end of their contracts, this would have been a problem, especially with Spikes entering those post-30 years when LBs begin to slow down and TKO's injury history.
So, with Ellison showing promise and Crowell ready to take over his spot in the lineup, why deal with the headaches and uncertainties? Especially when TKO decided to approach management and ask for a trade.
By the time word got out that TKO had asked the Bills to trade him, there had already been speculation in the local media that the Bills might cut Spikes rather than pay him the more than $ 10 million that was remaining on his contract. If the local media was smart enough to see that as a possibility, you can be sure that there were some GMs around the NFL who also were aware of it as well.
TKO's trade value had already been driven down by his less-than-stellar play last season to begin with. The possibility that he might be a salary cap casualty further reduced his trade value. And, then, with news getting out that Spikes had asked the team to trade him, his trade value hit rock bottom.
With the influx of young, athletic LBs coming into the NFL this year from the draft, it was going to be difficult for the Bills to get much of anything for TKO under the circumstances. For those who like to compare TKO's potential recovery to that of J.Peterson, consider the fact that Peterson, a former Pro Bowler like Spikes, was signed by Seattle as a free agent--the 49ers got nothing for him. While Darwin Walker is no All-Pro and not the run-stopper that the Bills need at DT, he has been a decent pass-rusher and could have helped the Bills by freeing up John McCargo to rotate in at the 1-tech spot. So, there was some potential value to the Bills there, despite the fact that Walker was looking to have his contract extended and reworked.
While I am sure that the Bills would have liked to get a guarantee of more than a 6th round pick should Walker refuse to report, in addition to the 7th round pick that Philly threw into the deal, at least, in getting that 6th round pick worked into the deal, the Bills were able to "set a floor" for the trade, insuring that they would at least end up with a 6th and 7th round pick in exchange for TKO. Not great, but a lot more than San Francisco got for J.Peterson. And, in the process, the Bills got rid of two players that they very well may have ended up cutting in order to finish the task that was Job # 1 for the Levy Regime when it took over the team early in 2006.
The Walker Trade: Overview
As we all know, Philly sent Darwin Walker to the Bills because he wanted them to extend and rework his contract and, having a surplus of DTs, the Eagles were not going to do that. We all, also, know that Walker refused to report to the Bills for that same reason.
While, as I have pointed out, Walker could have helped the Bills at least address, if not solve, their problems at DT and it is hard to understand why the Bills would have traded for Walker, knowing what he wanted, if they were not willing to give him the kind of contract extension that he wanted, there is now some evidence that it might have been difficult, if not impossible, for the Bills to come to an agreement with Walker that would not have caused huge problems for the team in its dealings with other key players.
It should be obvious that Walker and his agent have been tracking the market for DTs around the NFL since he began demanding that his contract be extended and reworked after last season. Knowing the amount of money that Philly has invested in M.Patterson and B.Bunkley, Walker and his agent had to know that Philly was not about to give them what they were asking for. With the Eagles having a surplus of DTs, that could only mean that Philly would either try to trade or cut Walker. Either way, Walker could force a team to acceed to his contract demands.
To avoid losing Walker and getting nothing in return, Philly allowed Walker to shop himself around the league last spring. But, with teams knowing the situation, it appears that the best deal that Philly could come up with was the TKO/Holcomb trade in which they agreed to give up a 6th round pick if Walker refused to report to the Bills by Aug. 5.
If the Bills had immediately given Walker what he wanted, it is possible that he might have been happy to sign with Buffalo and reported to the OTAs. While it can be argued that that is what the Bills should have done, in truth, we really have no idea what kind of numbers would have satisfied Walker and his agent at that point--we just know that what the Bills offered was not acceptable to Walker--or what kind of effect that would have had on the Bills' salary structure. It can be argued that, if the Bills had extended and reworked Walker's contract, it would have prompted Pro Bowler A.Schobel and rising star J.Peters to demand that their contracts also be extended and reworked and complicated efforts by the Bills to possbily extend the contracts of L.Evans and JP Losman after this season.
Regardless, in the following weeks and months, Walker's position was bolstered and the Bills' position was seriously weakened by the contract that C.Redding signed with Detroit, by the injury suffered by R.Coleman, and by the legal problems and suspensions of T.Johnson and a couple of other DTs around the league. With the market for a quality NFL DT getting bigger and the price for one going up, there was no reason for Walker and his agent to lessen their demands and less likelihood that the Bills would be able to meet them. If the Bills did not meet Walker's demands or trade him to a team that would or that he would rather play for, all he and his agent had to do was wait until his rights reverted back to Philly and the Eagles were forced to cut him. Then, as a free agent, he could go to the team of his choice and/or sell himself to the highest bidder. Walker was in the best position possible. And, if the Bills wanted to get more for him than Philly's 6th round pick, it was up to them to do something.
But, of course, with everyone in the NFL knowing the situation, the Bills were in a tough spot.
The D.Walker Trade: Walker to Chicago
According to ESPN's story on the trade (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2953545&campaign=rss&source=NFLHeadlines ), Chicago was one of the teams that Walker talked to about a trade last spring. Unlike with the Bills, Walker's agent says that Walker will not hold out and is willing to take a one year deal from the Bears.
What that tells me is that Walker never had any intention of playing for the Bills unless he got a mega-millions extension from Buffalo. Based on that, I do not believe that the Bills could have satisfied Walker without damaging their salary structure and/or team unity. In which case, trading Walker (or letting him go back to Philly) was the only sensible option for them.
Trading Walker to Chicago and out of the AFC is a good move. While it does strengthen the Bears and, if Walker only signs a one year deal he could be back out on the market next offseason, Miami was one of the teams reported to be most interested in signing Walker if he went back to Philly and was cut. And, there are other teams in the AFC that might have been interested in Walker that the Bills would end up contending with not just this year, but in the future. Walker obviously likes the Bears and may consider staying with them if he has a good season in Chicago.
Getting a fifth round pick from Chicago is, obviously, better than getting the 6th round pick from Philly that Buffalo would have gotten had Walker reverted back to the Eagles, so that is a plus. The fact that it is a conditional pick that could go up based on playing time/performance is also a plus. I know that the Bears love their young DTs, but, with I.Scott, A.Boone and T.Johnson gone, Walker should get plenty of playing time, if he can stay healthy, with A.Garay and D.Davoracek competing for playing time with him. And, Walker's stats should definitely benefit from playing next to T.Harris when he isn't spelling him. I don't know what the conditions are for the Bills to get a better pick from Chicago, but I think there is at least a fair chance that they could end up with a 4th round pick out of the deal--which would be terrific.
CONCLUSION:
I know that there are a lot of Bills fans who think that the Bills "woulda/coulda/shoulda" gotten more for Takeo Spikes than what shapes up now to be a 5th round pick from Chicago and a 7th round pick from Philly. But, under the circumstances and given what SF got for J.Peterson in a similar situation, I think they pretty much got about as much as they possibly could have gotten and have made their lockerroom stronger by sending a message that those players who work hard and buy into what the team is trying to do (ie C.Kelsay, B.Moorman, etc.) will be rewarded, while those who don't will end up playing elsewhere.
Now, of course, none of this has helped to address the weakness of the interior of the Bills' defensive line. And, I must admit that this concerns me--especially the fact that it may mean that T.Anderson may still have a place on the roster. In my view, that means that John McCargo will play a huge role in determining just how good or bad the Bills defense will be this season. He must stay healthy all season and perform at a high level all the way through.
I also think that the departure of D.Walker means that the Bills will be looking closely at those teams that do have a surplus of DTs on their rosters. I would not be surprised to see them trade for a DT using one or more of the picks that they have in next year's draft or, if they are unable to do that, pick up a DT off of the waiver wire during the preseason.
If the Bills do not add a DT before the end of the preseason, there is one thing that does give me hope that they might still get better play from their DTs this season than they did last year: while they were not "good enough",the Bills did do a significantly better job of stopping the run in their final game against the Ravens with Jason Jefferson in the lineup instead of Tim Anderson. I know that's more of a comment on how bad Anderson is than how good Jefferson is, but it's at least something.... That and the fact that teams that switch to a Tampa Cover 2 tend to be much better their second season in the system than the first are at least reasons to hope.
Even though I expect the Bills young players--their rookies in particular, but also, on occasion, their second year players--to make some mistakes, I do expect them to be better, as a unit, at stopping the run, especially as the season goes on, than they were last year.