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A big part of the equation is the raw number of players lost and signed. Last time I looked, the Bills had lost and signed the same number of players so it is a wash.
A big part of the equation is the raw number of players lost and signed. Last time I looked, the Bills had lost and signed the same number of players so it is a wash.
I thought it went beyond that though. let me check:
heres Wikipedia's comments:
Compensatory Picks
In addition to the 32 picks in each round, there are a total of up to 32 picks dispersed at the ends of Rounds 3 through 7. These picks, known as "compensatory picks," are awarded to teams that have lost more qualifying free agents than they gained the previous year in free agency. Teams that gain and lose the same number of players but lose higher-valued players than they gain also can be awarded a pick, but only in the seventh round, after the other compensatory picks. Compensatory picks cannot be traded, and the placement of the picks is determined by a proprietary formula based on the player's salary, playing time and postseason honors with his new team, with salary being the primary factor. So, for example, a team that lost a linebacker who signed for $2.5 million per year in free agency might get a sixth-round compensatory pick, while a team that lost a wide receiver who signed for $5 million per year might receive a fourth-round pick.
If fewer than 32 such picks are awarded, the remaining picks are awarded in the order in which teams would pick in a hypothetical eighth round of the draft.
Based on this, we would land a high comp pick for Nate IF we lost more than we gained. If not, we should at least get a 7th.
OK, heres more...way more than most people care, but some of it is very interesting:
Projecting the 2007 compensatory picks For the sixth consecutive year and seventh overall, I've attempted to project all of the compensatory draft picks that the NFL will award. In my past four projections, I've averaged 25.0 out of 32 exactly correct (going to the correct team in the correct round) and have been off by only one round on an average of 4.0 more. However, I'm not expecting to be that successful this year. For several reasons, these projections were the most difficult since my first attempt in 1998.
As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire. The number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula.
Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying the compensatory picks that have been awarded since they began in 1993, I've determined that the primary factor in the value of the picks awarded appears to be the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with an adjustment for playing time and a smaller adjustment for postseason honors. A simple method of determining for which qualifying free agents a team will be compensated is this -- for every player signed, cancel out a lost player of similar value. For example, if a team signs one qualifying player for $2 million per season and loses two qualifying players, one who got $1.8 million per season and one who got $4 million per season, the team will be compensated for the $4 million player.
It is possible for a team to get a compensatory pick even if it doesn't suffer a net loss of qualifying free agents, although those kind of comp picks come at the end of the seventh round, after the normal comp picks and before the non-compensatory picks that are added if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. There have been 11 of these "net value" type of comp picks awarded, and in each case, the combined value of the free agents lost was significantly higher than the combined value of the free agents signed. In all 11 cases, those teams lost the same number of qualifying free agents as they signed. No team has ever been awarded a comp pick after signing more qualifying free agents than they lost, no matter how significant the difference in combined value.
I should note that my comp pick formula is merely an attempt to project the results of the actual (secret) formula, which I'm sure is more precise and complicated than my simple simulation. I don't pretend to know the actual formula. But I think previous results indicate that my formula is a pretty good simulation.
In order to qualify for the comp equation, a player must have been a true Unrestricted Free Agent whose contract had expired or was voided after the previous season (i.e., he cannot have been released by his old team); he must sign during the UFA signing period (which ended July 24 last year); if he signs after June 1, he must have been tendered a June 1 qualifying offer by his old team; he must sign for at least a certain amount of money per season; and he cannot have been permanently released by his new team before a certain point in the season (which seems to be after Week 10) or, possibly, before getting a certain amount of playing time, unless he was claimed off waivers by another team.
The most difficult part about projecting the comp picks is determining all of the cutoff points -- the minimum salary needed to qualify and the value ranges for each round of compensatory picks. In the past, I'd take the previous year's approximate cutoff points and increase them by the same percentage as the increase in RFA tenders for the previous season, which was roughly the increase in the salary cap before any league-wide adjustments. However, the 2006 Collective Bargaining Agreement revision and the jump in the salary cap that came with it make that a questionable thing to do this year. The RFA tenders increased 10 percent, the salary cap increased 19.3 percent, the rookie minimum salary increased 19.6 percent, the four-year veteran minimum salary increased 8.3 percent, and the seven-year veteran minimum salary increased 6.0 percent. The NFL could have used any one of those increases in the comp formula -- or it could have used a completely different number. And there's no telling if or how the formula was changed in new CBA. After a thorough review of all of the information I've collected, I took a wild guess and increased the cutoff point for qualifying by a small percentage and the cutoff points for each round of comp picks by increasingly larger percentages.
Last year, the lowest-paid player who qualified for the NFL's comp equation was Antowain Smith, who signed for $690,000 per season, played in all 16 games and started seven games. The highest-paid player who is known to have not qualified was Idrees Bashir ($640,000), but two years ago, three players signed for at least $660,000 per season and did not qualify. This year, there are three players who seem to be on the bubble for qualifying and eight players that would seem to be above the bubble but could be disqualified if the NFL uses a larger increase than I did for the minimum salary needed to qualify. The three bubble players are Chad Williams ($700,000 per season, 15 Games Played/1 Game Started), Keith Newman ($710,000, 11 GP/0 GS, cut Dec. 12 after 13 games) and Corey Ivy ($720,000, 13 GP/0 GS). I'm projecting that only Ivy will qualify. Newman would be the least likely to qualify because of his minimal playing time (fewer than 50 plays all season, and only on special teams). Two years ago, Cornell Green, who signed for $710,000 per season in 2004 and played only one play, did not qualify for the equation. So even with small increases in the minimum needed to qualify, Newman would seem to be in a similar situation, given that his salary was exactly the same and his playing time was only slightly more. The eight players who seem to have signed for enough money to qualify all got between $750,000 and $765,000 per season. They are Kevin McCadam ($765,000, 16 GP/0 GS), Grey Ruegamer ($755,000, 16/1), Raonall Smith ($755,000, 16/0), Anthony Clement ($750,000, 16/16), Ephraim Salaam ($750,000, 15/14), Shaun Williams ($750,000, 12/12), Kenny Wright ($750,000, 16/9) and Jamar Fletcher ($750,000, 13/2).
Last year, regardless of playing time or postseason honors, the only third-round comp player got $5.51 million per season, fourth-round comp players got $4.167 million to $5.004 million, fifth-round comp players got $3.491 million to $4.375 million, sixth-round comp players got $1.706 million to $3.04 million, and seventh-round players got $1 million or less. Note that the upper range for seventh-rounders is misleading because none of last year's comp picks were for players who signed for between $1 million and $1.7 million per season. In 2005, three of the seventh-round comp picks were for players who signed for between $1.5 million and $1.75 million per season.
Another thing that made this year's projections difficult was that there were three unusual cases for qualifying players. For the first time, a qualifying player who could affect the comp picks was traded. Michael Bennett ($1.5 million, 11/0) was signed by New Orleans and traded to Kansas City for a fourth-round pick. New Orleans wouldn't receive any comp picks regardless of whether Bennett counts as a player signed for them. But Kansas City would not get a comp pick if Bennett counts as a player signed for them. Because there was no previous such case to set a precedent, I had to take an educated guess for whether Bennett would count against Kansas City. I'm projecting that Bennett will not count against the Chiefs, based on the simple fact that they already gave up one draft pick for him, and if he counts as a signing, he would cost them another pick. But I could be wrong. Also this year, a player signed for less than a qualifying salary but renegotiated for a higher salary during the season and could now qualify. Nate Webster originally signed a one-year contract for $585,000 with Denver, but during the regular season, he renegotiated that to a three-year deal. I used his partial $585,000 salary and the remaining value of his three-year deal to determine that his final contract value is $928,000 per season, which would mean he qualifies. But again, I could be wrong. The third unusual case is Mike Vanderjagt, who signed for $1.833 million per season but was released Nov. 27 after 12 weeks (and 11 games, although he missed one with an injury). There has never been a player who was cut after Week 10 and did not qualify for the equation when he otherwise would have, based on his salary. But as I said earlier, the NFL might have a minimum amount of playing time required in order for players who were released to qualify for the comp equation, and none of the previous players cut after Week 10 were kickers or punters. Because every previous player with a qualifying salary who was cut after Week 10 has counted in the equation, I'm projecting that Vanderjagt will count, too. But again, I could be wrong.
I'll take "collossal mistakes made by our GM" for $500 Alex.
I dont understand hoarding cap money if we dont make the playoffs or dont intend to resign our own like JP and Evans.
But, I can see how we let Nate leave with Youbouty and now signing Webster. The thought that Youbouty could emerge may have been enough. But thats unproven vs. a proven player
He was one of the biggest signings in the offseason.
you let someone "steal" an overrated, underperforming used car and expect to get a porsche in exchange when perhaps a rusting hulk of a sixties era VW Beetle is more appropriate?
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