If the season were to start right now ...

[HenryRules]

if the season were to start right now, I don't think the Bills would be capable of a .500 record. Here's my reasons,

First, while Reed <i>may</i> be able to step in and fill Price's role on offense, we now have absolutely no depth whatsoever on offense. Whereas last year, an injury to Bledsoe would have been the only injury we would have had trouble dealing with, and even then, with Moulds, Price, and Henry, and a switch to a shorter passing game getting more use out of Centers or Riems we would have enabled someone like AVP to have some success. Now, if any of Bledsoe, Moulds, Henry, or Teague go down, we are in deep trouble. If Bledsoe or Moulds goes down, we're gonna start seeing 8 or 9 in the box due to an inability to have any deep passing game whatsoever. If Teague goes down, we have no one to play center at all. Last year, if Moulds (or Price) went down, we could increase Reed's or Riems involvement in the offense ... this year we can start to pass the ball more to Shaw or Campbell, not anywhere near the quality of last year. Last year we had Conaty to backup at center, this year ... i dunno who. Over the course of a season with our current offensive personnel, we'd be extremely lucky to finish in the top 15 offenses in the league.

Then we have our defense. First let me say that I love the signings of Posey and Spikes. However, while replacing Robinson was probably our biggest need on defense, Posey for Newman wasn't needed nearly as much as depth at CB/DT and with the release of Jenkins, now S. While our starters are improved over last year, that's partly because last year's starters were horrible. And still, if any of Pat Williams, Spikes, Fletcher, Winfield, Clements, or Wire goes down, our defense will be just as bad if not worse than last year's. Even when all healthy, our defense will probably be middle of the pack (10-15) or so simply because we do not have the # of quality DTs or corners needed to succeed in today's NFL where having 3 starting-quality CBs and a 4th worthy of being a nickel CB is mandatory for being a top-level D. Add in an injury to any of the forementioned players, and we're back to being in the bottom 10 D's. Not a very good outlook at all.

Finally, our special teams. If Lindell signs, I think that's a big improvement over Hollis. If our kicking hadn't been so horrible the year before, there's no way that Hollis would get the respect he got last year. The guy was middle-of-the-pack at best on field goals/consistency and one of the worst at kickoffs. Lindell will help us big time. Signing Shaw to help our punt return while looking good on paper is probably going to be wasted. I really think that our special teams problem is more coaching-related then it is personnel-related. Why we didn't replace Danny Smith when we replaced Ronnie Vinklarek I will probably never understand. While I think Pat Ruel could be an upgrade over Vinklarek and I think last year's OL could have pass blocked better, I don't think our OL underperformed anywhere near as badly as our ST's did.

So, if we're almost completely healthy this year, I see us having a middle of the road offense, a middle of the road defense, and bad return/coverage teams, which would probably be good enough for right about .500. Toss in the expected injuries, which we're probably due to get considering how lucky we were last year, and with the players we have right now, I think 7-9 would be an achievement.

All that being said, I love the work that TD did last year and hope he can duplicate that success the rest of this offseason, I just don't see people available on the free agent market that can really help us. And unlike many others here, I don't expect much to be available after June 1st. Aside from Washington, no one has gone ultra crazy since free agency started, and at the start there weren't as many teams in bad cap situations as there normally are anyway.

[casdhf]

Our defense was descent at the end of the season, I think we're a 10 win team right now

[Voltron]

I some what agree with you HR but let's see what happens in June after the June first cuts. TD has said on many occasion that this is only the begining. Backups will be added after June first and i think Conaty will resign if TD wants him here. He has been no where so far in FA that I have seen on this site at least.

[The Natrix]

I made a long post but I couldn't send it for some reason.

anyway, it basically said that your whole premise is flimsy at best.

[Tatonka]

i would agree with about 90% of what you said..

dt being the key to our defense leaves us very vunerable right now with no worthy replacements avaiable via FA.. that means that we are looking at a rookie being there which means we cant expect much or a retred that got owned from last year.

we shall see.

[HenryRules]

Originally posted by The Natrix
I made a long post but I couldn't send it for some reason.

anyway, it basically said that your whole premise is flimsy at best.

I'm curious ... which of the following statements do you believe:

We have good depth at the skill positions on offense.

We have good depth on the interior offensive line.

We have good depth anywhere on defense.

We have good special teams coaching.

None of the above are important to a winning team.

[casdhf]

They're definately not as important as good starters. We had good depth on D last year. We started about 5 backups.

[HenryRules]

I agree that without solid starters you have no chance at being a good team, but in a 16-game season, you have to be able to deal with injuries as well, and I don't think our depth allows us to deal with any injuries at all.

[kgun12]

Here where your wrong. Name any team in the NFL with good back ups! Are WR's right now are better than NE, the Bucs, and the Ravens the year they won the SB. Our O line is solid to include back up Price, Conaty hasn't signed with anyone yet so once he finds out what he's worth the Bills will either sign him or draft our back-up. OH YEA IT'S FRECKIN MARCH!lol!

[HenryRules]

KGun,
I agree its March, that's why I said that I hope TD does better the rest of the offseason, I just don't see why everyone else is so excited. As far as naming teams that have good backups ... I think the other teams in our division have backups at least as good as ours.

On the Pats - Kevin Faulk looked pretty solid when he was used last year and Daniel Graham is a good TE option to have if Fauria goes down, Huard isn't great but not bad. Couldn't tell you a thing about their OL-depth due to my ignorance of backup OL around the league. That's pretty solid offensive depth for a team with a Belichek D. Their D is hard to judge right now - I doubt Harrison or Jones is a backup safety to start the season, but Phifer and Poole are pretty solid guys to have that aren't starters (I'll count McGinest as the starter at LB, if he's considered a backup, then he's pretty solid there as well). And Vinateri is money on special teams which is what I think our main failing is. They've also got 2 high 1st rounders to provide solid depth.

The Fins - I can't believe I have to say they're good to make a point, but here goes - with Mare, their kicking game is gonna be solid ... and I think Surtain-Madison-Fletcher is a very solid CB threesome. Robert Edwards would give me a lot more confidence than Joe Burns (I think Sammy Morris is moving into Centers' role now and is no longer a backup RB but a FB). Don't know much more about their offseason, so I can't comment any further.

The Jets - Testaverde is a solid backup QB - horrible starter, but for a game or two, I'd take him hands down over AVP ... Santana Moss as a 3rd WR is better than Shaw IMO and Lamont Jordan looked pretty good last year. Their special teams and defensive depth are hurting, but I think they're having a horrible offseason and don't think its a good thing to think "we're better off than the Jets". Another team with a couple of first rounders which should help their depth.

[RedEyE]

Nice post HR. I agree for the most part. The offense is weaker, the defense has only filled the middle of the field. I think that Lindell is a gamble (look at his #s in 2001) and Hollis should have recieved the contract instead. In short, we were .500 last season and I feel that we are weaker offensively this season. With all other solid FAs signed the Bills will have to rely on young draftees to fill holes - that won't happen. I'm dissapointed in the release of Centers. His rcv abilitites are greatly needed this season without Price and Jay R. Crosby can't catch a cold. Henry is going to have to step it up a notch and hang onto the ball. All the young players and all the new Bills are going to need time to find chemisty. IMO the Bills will be lucky to make .500 again this season the rest of the division is strong and will give our DL fits. Not sure what happened in the Adams negotiations, but we really need him. Shaw is a special teamer not a real recieve threat. Reed will hav to fill Price's shoes with less weapons diverting the attention of the opposing defense.

[Seano]

HR , I can't sit through your entire post!! Maybe one discertation but not two in one thread. I'm assuming the end of your last statement was about no depth . Shaw isn't bad, Jennings can play center , Price is very underated--Marcus not Peerless, Kevin Thomas? will come on as the third CB, Preliou will become the back up SS and we're full of second string D-linemen we just need a couple first stringers. IN SHORT we'll be OK after the draft and then June.

[HenryRules]

As far as our WRs being better than the Pats, Bucs, Ravens when they won the Super Bowl.
The Ravens had one of the best D's of all time - our D is mediocre at best.
The Pats D played amazing in the playoffs - our D is mediocre at best.
I respectfully disagree that Johnson, McCardell, and Jurevicius are worse than Moulds, Reed, and Shaw. And if you're talking about receiving threats in general, which was my main point, Pittman is better than Henry and Dilger/Dudley is better than Moore/Campbell. Oh, and the Bucs D was arguably the best in football last year - our D is mediocre at best.

[colin]

The offense was together for the first time, with 4 linemen new to their position, and nearly all young. New QB, and a new offense.

Although we lost price, every other aspect of our O is gonna improve considerably.

[Tatonka]

jenning can NOT play center.. no way..

[Doc]

Yes it's march and the Bills are far from done. I don' t think they cut Robinson and Centers at this time without an idea where that money was going, i.e. they would have cut at least Centers a lot sooner. Also remember that the coaching was upgraded immensely over last year. This year the Bills have 6 guys with coordinating experience and 4 coaches with head coaching experience, compared to 2 and 1 last year, and barely at that. Also Ronnie Vinklarek was out of his league and the O-line didn't respect him. Whether they respect Ruel I don't know, but the "experts" seem to think it was a great move by the Bills, whereas I didn't hear anything about Vinklarek.

[HenryRules]

Doc, I wasn't saying that I don't think Vinklarek should have been replaced, I was just saying that before replacing Vinklarek, I would have replaced Danny Smith.

[BuffaloRanger]

No O-line depth scares me. I also am not really confident in an O-line that gave up 50+ sacks. So DB holds onto the ball. So he's a statue. If that is so, the O-line needs to be improved, not just "oh well, sacks will happen". I hope ruel helps. I would be much happier with a stud C being brought in to compete with TT. If TT gets beat out, he'd provide great depth at OT/C.

Any running game we have this year will really be dependant on the line. Teams won't have to overplay the pass as much. The line has to really come through this year.

[LABillsFan]

The schedual has to be mentioned as well. It is tougher than last years and the Bills lost 3 starting offensive players. Price, centers and JR, weather you think they were good or not doesn't play into the fact that they knew the system. JR and LC were not utilized enough. Can JR block? No, but given enough passes he can make a difference, the same can be said for LC when the formation is designed correctly. The front four on the D side is where the wild card is. If Marcus Jones does return healthy it will add to the line in upgrade and depth, but the question is still in the middle without another DT. This is where LeBeau will earn his money. He has got to disguise and scheme to cover the weakness and I believe he will. Still, this team is still at least 1 year away from making a big enough dent to make it to the SB. I don't think we'll be seeing big shoot outs next season, The offense will be more clock conscious and the D will be stronger but just like the Bills every other team is upgrading.

[Ron C.]

At this moment we are a better team. And we still have a full draft and 8M+ in cap space to work with.

[HenryRules]

Ron, I really don't see how you can say we're a better team right now ... we've basically traded Peerless, Centers, and Riems, for Spikes - definitely degrading our offense significantly and upgrading our defense at a quasi-important position.

[The Natrix]

Originally posted by HenryRules
degrading our offense significantly

how can say that?

Centers and Reims are worthless for the power game that is OBVIOUSLY being implemented. Price is far from worthless but When a power running game is being installed, Moulds, Reed and Shaw will be more than adaquate.

Give it up dude, the offense is looking solid. It might not look deadly but most of the SB winning teams didn't need one. With another year of experience and possiblt an addition, the OL will be solid, Henry is a machine, Crosby is a very underrated blocker and Bledose is Probowl QB. Moulds is an animal, Reed is something special and Shaw should be able to do what Reed did last year.

There is 8 mil to spend and the draft is upcoming, so why are you crying about depth?

You really need to be more positive.

[BambinoSux]

How come everyone mentions signings and releases but no one mentions what might be the most important aspect of the game = experience. Basically since you're saying we will do worse than we did last year, you are saying that Big Mike, Reed, Wire, Schobel, Clements and all of our young players have reached their ceiling. I think you gotta factor those positions as improvements because I am sure all of those guys will improve. I'd say 9-7 w/ no Adams (which still might happen) and 8 mil AND the draft, which TD has shown he can add quality players with.

[Tatonka]

i wont be surprised to see a WR taken early.. with the speed in the 4.3s that johnson from penstate showed, he is a big, fast guy we could use to stretch the field..

wright is still on the roster too.. and will be a year along.. i remember him being drafted as a speedster as well.. then there is rone? i think that is his name.. he was wr #5 or so last year.

[Tatonka]

it is very tough to say, if the season were to start now... obviously there is a plan in the front office.. so to grade them well before the plan is done is just not fair..

you can say if the season were to start now.. but it isnt..

you can say if bledsoe goes down.. but he hasnt..

think about any team really.. if priest goes down.. kc is done.. if gannon goes down.. see ya.. ect ect..

[Throne Logic]

Thank you, BambinoSux. I was yelling pretty much the same thing at my monitor as I read through this thread.

Buffalo had two MAJOR problems last year (there were a number of small ones, but only TWO major ones):

1) Defense was young and inexperienced. In the second half of the season they began to show dramatic improvements. Never underestimate the strength of experience.

2) The Offense was pretty much set up to rely 100% on Bledsoe. Unbalanced. Drew isn't good enough to do this. No one is. Offense NEEDS balance. Without Price, Gilbride will be forced (because it's the only way this bonehead will do it) to run the ball occationally.

Besides, as someone else mentioned, name another team in the NFL that has solid depth at all positions. Free Agency and the CAP just don't allow for it.

Is Buffalo a lock for the Superbowl? No. But to say they are not improved over last season, well, that's just rediculous.

BTW, Buffalo went into last season with the #1 most difficult schedule. I don't put much stock in this. You really cannot fairly judge strength of schedule until after the season is over.

[colin]

The biggest thing that hurt our O last year was Henry's fumbling. It caused Gilby to get away from the running game, and obviosly when we pass, it is deep option routs and we did not have a consistant dump off guy (Henry and that TE we signed from TB last year could be). If Henry just cuts his fumbles in half, we will have a MUCH better O.

Don't forget we have a new starting quality FS, a very good pass rushing SSLB, and 2 new DEs, with Jones having some signifigant upside in passrushing, and who is MUCH better than our previos #2 DE. That is several upgrades in several key areas, right NOW.

We WILL sign or draft a stud DT, probably Adams, but perhaps someone else, and I think we will get some kind of big fast WR too. 4 out of the 5 linemen on our O are gonna be better this year than last, and our D coaching is very improved.

The Bills are a way better team and organization than they were a year ago.

[WG]

Untrue Colin. Henry's fumbles only cost us twice, believe it or not. The "biggest thing that hurt our O last year" was Drew's INTs, 15 of them and 3 fumbles for 18 TOs in 7 losses, each and everyone contributing to the loss.

I realize that's an extremely unpopular opinion for Bills fans, but what you said simply isn't true. Henry had two costly, 1 in a loss to Denver. Drew had 18 costly, in 7 losses to the 7 other teams we lost to. Henry was not pivotal in those losses fumble wise.

[WG]

All I know is that if we don't finish at least 10-6 this year, and I'd like to say 11-5, then there's gonna be an awful lot of skeptics a brewin'. We already have the talent to win the division and that's w/o Adams possibly signing or us getting a top DT in the draft and w/o our draft overall and additional signings w/ some of the very generous cap room we have left.

I can tell you that if Drew tosses 15 INTs in 7 losses again, or even close to it, there's gonna be a campaign underway to not sign him past his three seasons. You just can't have a QB who throws away the top half of the games on the schedule and expect to do well.

Many excuses were floated for Drew last year which are getting a pass from people like me who are critical of his past performances both here and in N.E., but a repeat of that this year and given our improvements the basis for those excuses won't exist.

If there's one thing that I still think can prevent us from getting to the SB, it's Drew's erratic and poor play in the games that mean the most.

HR is right however, at the present time we have no depth on our OL. We're fine at the skill positions. If Moulds had gone down last year we'd have been in the same boat. Price couldn't have carried the load as the leading WR. That much will be evident this year in Atlanta.

But I thought by now we'd have resigned Conaty, but we haven't. I don't know how TD cannot sign him back. All we have is Price otherwise and I'm still assuming that we offer Conaty a contract. He's nuts if he thinks we're gonna skate thru this season injury free on the OL again. It ain't gonna happen, especially if we have no depth. It'll be a jinx.

If Drew goes down, I'm still confident that one of our backups would be sufficient and possibly Brown could surprise. On D, we have more depth than we've ever had now in the secondary. Our LBs are solid and we have decent depth. Our DL, well, we don't even have starters at DT and one DE unless Jones works out after serious injuries.

There's plenty more work to do. As usual, depth is always key, but then again, depth can be picked up following June 1st cuts. We just don't want to have to rely on them for starters, DT for example.

[HenryRules]

Wys, I disagree that our depth at skill positions is fine.
Last year if Moulds went down, we had Price as a deep threat, Reed, Riems and Centers/Henry for underneath ... not as good as when Moulds was healthy but definitely good enough to pose an attack and keep teams from putting 8 or 9 in the box to stop the run.
This year if Moulds goes down, we have Shaw as our best deep threat. Can anyone honestly say that last sentence with a straight face? Our passing offense will consist of Reed, Shaw, Moore, and Henry. I don't think that's anywhere near as good as Price, Reed, Riems, Henry/Centers. So to say we are in the same boat is a bit of an exagerration.

Also, as far as us still having 8 mil to spend and that being good enough ... I'd agree except I don't see where/who TD is going to spend this money on. Its definitely not a receiver as Dyson, Price, and Jenkins have all been deemed unworthy of our money ... that pretty much means that unless we draft someone, Moulds, Reed, and Shaw are our receiving options ... that doesn't give me confidence. As far as the draft, this year's receivers are weak ... for those holding out hope of a Josh Reed in the middle of the second round ... it ain't happenin.
And I don't see who he wants to spend our 8 mil on the defensive side ... Tebucky Jones wasn't worth our money (my take on the rumours is that we were interested for a while but dropped out), Thornton wasn't worth our money, Sam Adams doesn't seem to be worth our money (am I the only one that finds it petty that we're arguing over a cap hit of a few hundred thousand per year with a guy that could potentially save our defense).

And as far as the draft ... which DT that Donohoe has drafted previously makes you think that he'll find one this year?

To me, Donohoe is beginning to look like a general that wins the battles but loses the war.

[superbills]

Originally posted by HenryRules
if the season were to start right now, I don't think the Bills would be capable of a .500 record.

...But the season doesn't start right now and we're not done. I realize that you were trying to make a point and it is a valid one that, if the season did start today, the Bills would do so with some holes left unfilled. But, we're only in March, the owners meetings haven't even taken place, we have a draft to do and a June deadline to wait for, and yet we're making doomsday predictions fora season that starts in 6 Months. Now, again, I'm not saying that your points aren't valid and, indeed, if TD does not address some of these issues, we'll be in serious trouble, but I believe he will. No need to get all worked up when there's so much that will take place before the real season does begin. We will find capable backups, our defense, I would argue, is already better than mediocre, and our offense will be more balanced and will control the ball which will help our better defense. In other words I think we're already in okay shape and more than capable of a .500 record. TD will bring that to playoff status with the rest of the offseason and all of this will be moot. You'll see...

[HenryRules]

Initially I wasn't really getting worked up ... I started the thread as a change of pace from the rumours/signing threads.

I do think this is a valid time to raise the discussion as its the equivalent to the 5-game mark of the offseason (a third of the way through the major offseason events - initial signings; pre-draft, draft, and post-draft; and June 1st cuts and sigings being the 3 major groups.

[superbills]

Okay, but given that scenario, I think we've had a heck of an offseason, so far. I think that if you formulate an opinion of our progress given that we're only 1/3 of the way through the offseason, it should be a little more on the positive side in light of our aquisitions. I don't believe that the releases will have that severe of an impact. Also, since we recouped a first round draft pick for Price, any projections regarding his departure should be reserved until after the draft, IMO.

[colin]

Wys

I said

"The biggest thing that hurt our O last year was Henry's fumbling. It caused Gilby to get away from the running game".

Getting away from the run hurt us.

[John Doe]

I'm with Bambino and Throne: experience means a lot to young players. Even guys that did not see a lot of game action (Pucillo, Houghton, Burns, Denney, Irons, Bannan, Steveson) benifitted by having gone through a training camp and season. They are still not proven players, but they should be a lot better than last season. The O-line returns intact with a year under their belt at their positions. Also, Sammy Morris is a very sure-handed reciever - I don't think that the loss of Centers is that great.

[G. Host]

A RB who hasn't proved yet that he knows how to hold onto the ball and will only lose it more with more carries.

[colin]

If the season started today, our D would hurt some AFCE *****es!!!!!