Perception vs. Reality

[Wraith]

This is not and WILL NOT be another J.P. Losman-bashfest, understood?

I am simply interested in whether fans here think short range is J.P.'s "worst range" and if those fans also feel he is a bad short-range passer relative to other quaterbacks in the league. Reading through various topics, this opinion seems to be pretty popular.

Some definitions:

Short-range: Passes thrown 10 yards from the line of scrimmage in the air or less (including passes behind the line of scrimage).

Mid-range: Passes thrown 11 - 20 yards from the line of scrimmage in the air.

Long-range: Passes thrown greater than 20 yards from the line of scrimmage in the air.

Which range is Losman the worst at?

[THATHURMANATOR]

He seems to be off on his short to mid range passes.

[ddaryl]

He does seem to not be able to recognize the quick short open reciever as often as necessary preferring to let the WR's get open further downfield. Which is why he seems to hold the ball a tad long.

He also seems to struggle to be able to set up that pretty layup pass for the back coming out of the backfiled as a dump off.

[Wraith]

How do you think he compares to the rest of the league in those ranges?

Which quaterback(s) do you think excel in the short or mid-range?

[TacklingDummy]

It's mid-range.

His best is 31-40 yards.

He sucks at passes between 11-30 yards.

Behind the line 66-98, 440 yards, 67.3% Comp. %, 1TD 1 INT, 76.1 RAT.

1-10 yards: 151-204, 1265 yards, 74.0 C%, 8 TDs, 5 Ints. 92.5 RAT

11-20 yards: 29-69, 491 yards, 42.0 C%, 1 TD, 2 INTS, 59.5 RAT

21-30 yards: 13-32, 386 yards, 40.6 C%, 3 TD, 5 Ints, 77.9 RAT

31-40 yards: 6-16, 321 yards, 37.5 C% 5TDs, 0 Ints, 125.0 RAT, Thank You Lee Evans.

41+yards: 3-10, 148 yards, 30.0 C%, 1 TD, 1 Int, 72.9 RAT

The people who voted short -range are ill informed.

[Wraith]

Right now the poll is showing 5 votes for short-range, 1 vote for mid-range, and 0 votes for long-range. A very small sample size, to be sure, but would anyone argue that the results would be significantly different with a larger sample size? I doubt it. There are really two questions I want answered:

1) Is short-range really Losman's worst area?

2) Is Losman a below average short-range passer?

Similar questions but subtley different. I don't think anyone would argue against Losman's long-range prowess. But I when break down the numbers, I was incredibly surprised. The statistics say that when Losman passes in the SHORT-RANGE he gets results that are ABOVE league average.

To me, the two main statistics to describe passing is completion percentage and yards per completion. The significance of completion percentage is fairly obvious. Yards per completion is used instead of yards per attempt because yards per attempt is heavily influenced by completion percentage. Yards per completion may indicate whether a quarterback is setting up his receiver to get yards after the catch by hitting him in stride, etc. Basically I want to know: How often can the receivers catch the ball and when they can catch the ball, how far can they go?

26 starting quarterbacks were evaluated. 6 were omitted because their statistics were unavailable from the ESPN.com splits. I included the first and worst in every category, as well as notable quarterbacks such as Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees, for comparisons sake. Some interesting results:

Passes thrown behind LOS:
COMP%:
Rank
1st: Charlie Frye (80.0%)
4th: Tom Brady (73.7%)
11th: J.P. Losman (67.35%)
17th: Peyton Manning (63.77%)
23rd: Drew Brees (61.07%)
26: Matt Leinart (50.0%)

YPC:
Rank
1st: David Garrard (8.83 YPC)
2nd: Tom Brady (8.43 YPC)
8th: Drew Brees (7.11 YPC)
9th: J.P. Losman (6.67 YPC)
20th: Peyton Manning (5.61 YPC)
26th: Matt Hasselbeck (2.85 YPC)

1 - 10 Yards past LOS:
COMP%:
1st: Jon Kitna (74.39%)
3rd: J.P. Losman (74.02%)
6th: Peyton Manning (71.08%)
11th: Tom Brady (69.78%)
12th: Drew Brees (69.09%)
26th: Vince Young (55.47%)

YPC:
1st: Donovan McNabb (9.97 YPC)
17th: J.P. Losman (8.38 YPC)
18th: Peyton Manning (8.35 YPC)
22nd: Drew Brees (8.23 YPC)
24th: Tom Brady (8.17 YPC)
26th: Charlie Frye (7.75 YPC)

As you can see, Losman is in the top half of the league in every category except YPC 1 - 10 Yards. In that category, where he is ranked 17th, he is still ahead of Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and most surprisingly, Tom Brady. So what does this mean? That our perceptions are wrong? It seems like it to me, after all it's hard to argue with results.

Now the kicker: Losman's main area of improvement is not short-range at all, but rather mid-range:

11 - 20 Yards past LOS:
Comp%:
Rank
1st: Tony Romo (68.75%)
2nd: Peyton Manning (67.46%)
4th: Drew Brees (61.70%)
23: J.P. Losman (42.03%)
24: Tom Brady (41.98%)
26: Mark Brunell (34.09%)

YPC
Rank
1st: Bruce Gradkowski (48.00 YPC)
4th: Drew Brees (19.45 YPC)
10th: Tom Brady (18.68 YPC)
23rd: J.P. Losman (16.93 YPC)
24th: Peyton Manning (16.64 YPC)
26th: Eli Manning (16.23 YPC)

Despite the fact that in both categories, Losman has some pretty damn good quarterbacks ranked below him, he is one of the worst overall when looking at both COMP% and YPC between 11 - 20 yards. This is where he needs to improve the most.

The interesting thing is how far off the fan's perception is. How often do we ever complain about Losman's 15 yard passes? But the numbers say something different. It's one example of how far removed our perception can be from reality when judging quarterback play and it's why I have to laugh when people judge quarterbacks by appearances alone.

[TacklingDummy]

\
1) Is short-range really Losman's worst area?

2) Is Losman a below average short-range passer?



1) No. Mid-range is.

2) No. He's above average on short-range passes. He should be, afterall he learned from Captain Checkdown Kelly Holcomb.

[TacklingDummy]

Homers don't like reality.

[mikemac2001]

Captain Checkdown Kelly Holcomb.

:clap:

[Night Train]

It's mid-range.

Reading the Safety and MLB when throwing the inside slant and reading the CB on the 15 yard out. All about poise and his reaction to pressure. Fairchild can temper that by making him check off to the RB,TE and not force the bad pass.

But if he cannot solve those demons, he'll never see another contract here. Throws a great deep ball but teams will just bring heavy pressure and succeed most of the time until he beats them underneath with prudent throws.

I'm rooting for the guy but Edwards is next in line if he struggles this year. He can't keep forcing balls when the rush is heavy.

[Ebenezer]

let the kid air it out and throw it downfield 5 or 6 times a game....

[YardRat]

YPC isn't that significant of a stat for comparison purposes.

Mannings lower YPC is irrelevant, considering his higher completion % would equate to roughly 400 more yards from scrimmage over the course of a year based on 100 attempts.

[Typ0]

He throws a great long ball....the rest of his throws are below average. You need to get more from an NFL QB.

[bocephuz]

He's pretty solid on the mid range out routes (mostly because of his arm strength)... it's the slant routs and in routes where he struggles. He needs to be conditioned to take 3 step drops and have the faith to thread it in there on the slants .. that is the sign of a confident quarterback who is not improvising all the time. Hopefully Fairchild can get him going on that.

[Wraith]

He throws a great long ball....the rest of his throws are below average. You need to get more from an NFL QB.

The numbers show he's an above average short range passer.