Pat's Official Season Prediction Time

[patmoran2006]

I was going to do a long, detailed write-up on how I think the Bills season was going to go. But decided against it because as soon as a few select homers read two sentences they'd stop reading and the thread would just get ripped to shreds with personal bull****. Guess what, I really don't care about spelling or grammar now, though just like with anything negative homer central will turn it into that instead of any actual football talk.

so I'll save myself the energy and trouble and get on with it; very informal and not really caring too much.



Offense: Very unimpressed. Lee Evans is a stud but that's all we have. Marshawn Lynch will develop into a solid back, but not with this brutal right side of the offensive line blocking for him. You'll all be craving Terrence Pennington by week four, that's how bad I think Walker is going to suck. Jason Whittle is a journeyman backup for a reason. And as the popular phrase ALL SPRING long on here went, I ask you.. Our offensive line as a whole is 'much improved' how?

Peerless Price will have a great game (like last week vs Tenn) then dissappear for a month. Josh Reed will give you exactly what he has for the past several years; good effort, occcasional production and not much else. Roscoe Parrish will be improved, maybe very much so.

Tight ends? LOL. Robert Royal sucks. Everett, wow he's showing us this preseason how serious he is about becoming important.

As for Losman. I think he is what he is. He's got heart a ton of it. He's getting leadership skills. He throws maybe the BEST long ball in all of football. But he's inaccurate FAR too often on short and medium passes, he's generally a horrible decision maker and his interceptions are amongst the ugliest I've ever seen.

Summary: I don't know any other way to say it. They are NOT good enough. Lynch is a rookie and needs a hell of a lot more from the OL after Peters and Dockery.. If you can find some magical way for Dock and Peters to block 11 guys on each play, then please let me know. Lynch will get better, but it will be a process. For those thinking of a 1300 yard rookie season, forget about it. Lee Evans will be huge like he was last year, mainly because he's SO good that even though teams know he's gonna get open deep, he still does. Price and Reed suck.. parrish is a solid three, royal is a wasted FA signing and Losman is the roller-coaster QB EVERYONE here deep down knows he is.


DEFENSE
Not only is this defense terrible. It may be one of the worst defenses I've EVER seen.

They honestly dont have a single strength on this unit. Schobel is good, VERY good in fact. But as a whole, the pass rush is inconsistent at best. They are BRUTAL against the run.. Kyle Williams has "heart" but what good does that do him when guys like Mangold are pushing back into the 5th row of the stands when they run the ball. Tripplett was a completely insignificant FA who got significant money. Darwin Walker was traded for but wouldnt even report. John McCargo has some talent but takes too many plays off, when he's not getting hurt.

Our LB corp is NOT good. Ellison cant tackle to save his life. Crowell is talented but battling injuries, again.. Poz will be a good linebacker anyone can see that.. But it will take some time, especially in this defense.

Our cornerbacks are such a joke there isnt a need for explanation.. The absolute worst in the entire NFL bar NONE. whitner and simpson are close to being considered a "strength" but arent there yet. Even if they are, they're not good enough to cover up for the 10 million times our CB's are going to get beat-- thats when an offense will even bother to need to throw the ball against us.

Summary: The worst defense in the division, maybe the worst defense in the league; and certainly one of the worst defenses this team has seen in well over a decade.
=====================================================
Special Teams: very good as always.

Schedule: Brutal. We can EASILY be out of the divisional race by the time the Monday nighter with Dallas is over.

OUTLOOK: Hate on me all you want. Im unbiased and I speak my mind. In 2008 I expect this team to be better. This year.. LOL I'm not blind. I dont think so.

They can't run and they cant stop the run. It's going to be a very ugly season when you can't do either of those right.

Prediction: 4-12 ///// last in the AFC East.

(and I also predict Jauron and maybe even Levy get fired after the season)

[tampabay25690]

I dont see either of those 2 guys leaving....I do agree next year will be the year that shows. We need to win soon this franchise will be in serious trouble if they don't. This years schedule is ABSOULUTELY BRUTAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I can see us going 0-3 to start, I dont know if the team is even ready to start the season......I think the starters should play the whole game against DETROIT, god knows they havent showed anything yet.....They need to get there **** together or it will get awfully cold at the RALPH in DEC....Well dont the SABRES play there on JAN 1, we can look forward to that...

[Dr. Lecter]

The last pre-season game was discouraging, for sure. The tackling was awful. The O-line really struggles with Preston in there. I still think they want Butler at Guard.

Pat, a few weeks ago you were very optimistic. Why the radical change?

[duhbilz]

I was going to do a long, detailed write-up on how I think the Bills season was going to go. But decided against it because as soon as a few select homers read two sentences they'd stop reading and the thread would just get ripped to shreds with personal bull****. Guess what, I really don't care about spelling or grammar now, though just like with anything negative homer central will turn it into that instead of any actual football talk.

It's never as bad as it seems and it's never as good as it seems. I would think the only thing to do would be to wait and see what happens. I think the same record as last year is possible anything above that, consider it a bonus. If you indeed think next year is the year, one more 6-10, 7-9 season won't be so bad.

[TacklingDummy]

4-12 to 6-10 may be good for the Bills.

The Bills of the late 80's/early 90's were built on high draft picks.

The recent Bills have sucked but they haven't sucked enough to get higher draft picks.

[Mitchy moo]

12-4, we win the div. on a tie-breaker.

[xXSpIkes5IXx]

The defense really hasent beent that bad...

Am i missing something? Or are people just obsessed with how the team looks on paper like they always are?

[patmoran2006]

The last pre-season game was discouraging, for sure. The tackling was awful. The O-line really struggles with Preston in there. I still think they want Butler at Guard.

Pat, a few weeks ago you were very optimistic. Why the radical change?

I am still very optimistic in the sense there is a LOT OF YOUNG talent on this roster. That's why until now you've heard nothing of me predicting an actual record.

I predict this mark because of

A) That young talent isnt going to start to shine until 2008 at the earliest, ESPECIALLY on the defense. By those guys I mean Whitner, Simpson, Poz, McCargo and possibly Crowell (Im starting to worry about his body breaking down on him). Maybe Elllison, dont know.

B) I don't like Jauron.

C) This schedule is hard

D) I"ve been saying it for months, this OL is NOT GREATLY IMPROVED, in fact its not improved at all, execpt for LG.

E) IN Clements and Fletcher gone as well as Spikes (going by the way he's looking as opposed to ellison right now)-- at least for this ONE YEAR we've lost a lot more in FA than we gained.

and finally F) We absolutely cannot stop anyone on defense. Our run defense is soft and its compounded by the worst collection of CB's I can ever remember this team having.

Like I said before.. IF these young kids continue to grow well and IF Losman develops into a smarter QB and finally IF we have a really solid off-season next year-- 2008 could be a "worst to first year"

It sure as hell aint going to be this year though, and I'm not sold on Levy or Jauron being here next winter either. If and again that's IF Walker and Dockery flop on the OL, someone has to answer for those horribly expensive blunders-- and that should be the GM.

[Mudflap1]

Got news for you guys... Peters and Dockery have sucked so far as well. It's only preseason I know. It'll be nice to see some guys show some heart and step up to the plate once the season starts (I hope).

Jon

[jamze132]

I loook at it like this...

If we can score more points than we allow the other team to, we should win some games this year. YEHA!

[YardRat]

I think we can beat Denver.

[Dr. Lecter]

4-12 to 6-10 may be good for the Bills.

The Bills of the late 80's/early 90's were built on high draft picks.

The recent Bills have sucked but they haven't sucked enough to get higher draft picks.

Not really. Bruce and Bennett (and he was acquired via trade) were the only high picks.

Kelly was mid-late 1st. Thurman was round 2. Reed round 4. Tasker was a waiver pick up. Metzelaars was a trade. Hull was an UDFA. Wolford was mid-late 1st. Ballard was round 11. Hansen was round 2.

[Bufftp]

The Brick Wall defense, bricks of swiss cheese that is, set the tone for the season. The offense gels by weeks 4 or 5 and keep us in games and make them interesting. 6-10 or 7-9.

[mybills]

When I saw this thread title, I thought you meant NE. I almost neg'd you into oblivion.

[don137]

IMO you lost a lot of credibility when you say the OL is not improved at all. While he is no pro bowler Walker is an improvement at RT. People seem to put a bullseye on his back but he has done admirable this preseason. Having Butler and Fowler out really hurt this offensive line and made it look porous. Dockery is coming along slower than hoped but will anchor with Peters to form a great left side.
Offensive lines take a while to build continuity and gel. They will get there. I wish they got cohesive in preseason but I blame it partly on injuries, partly on the players and partly on the country club setting of training camp. I guess one forgets how bad they were but to say they will not be any better after only a couple preseason games is poor analysis.

[Tatonka]

so I'll save myself the energy and trouble and get on with it; very informal and not really caring too much.



but still clearly caring enough to post something on the topic of how the bills will suck because you love the attention.

[Tatonka]

IMO you lost a lot of credibility when you say the OL is not improved at all.

you are implying that there was any credibility what-so-ever left for him to lose prior to starting this thread?

[Tatonka]

Not really. Bruce and Bennett (and he was acquired via trade) were the only high picks.

Kelly was mid-late 1st. Thurman was round 2. Reed round 4. Tasker was a waiver pick up. Metzelaars was a trade. Hull was an UDFA. Wolford was mid-late 1st. Ballard was round 11. Hansen was round 2.

dont confuse him with facts.

[TacklingDummy]

Op is right. All you do is attack people.

[Tatonka]

you made a ridiculously inaccurate statement by saying the good bills teams were built with high draft picks.. and you were proven 100% totally and completely wrong.. dont get pissy with me because your post looks like a total ****ing idiot.

[TacklingDummy]

you made a ridiculously inaccurate statement by saying the good bills teams were built with high draft picks.. and you were proven 100% totally and completely wrong.. dont get pissy with me because your post looks like a total ****ing idiot.

I was wrong. Not 100% wrong. They were built on some high round draft picks.

There's no need to act like a 2 year old in response.

[Tatonka]

one high round draft pick.. bruce smith..

you were 100% wrong.. it is what it is.. just be a man about it.

[Dr. Lecter]

Can you two argue via the PM system?

Thanks.

[TacklingDummy]

one high round draft pick.. bruce smith..

you were 100% wrong.. it is what it is.. just be a man about it.

Shane Conlan wasn't a high round draft pick?
Frank Reich?
Thomas?
Reed?
Odoms?
Already agree Bruce was.


Be a man about it like you were in response?

[TacklingDummy]

Can you two argue via the PM system?

Thanks.

Not arguing. Trying to have a manly conversation.

[Dr. Lecter]

Shane Conlan wasn't a high round draft pick?
Frank Reich?
Thomas?
Reed?
Odoms?
Already agree Bruce was.


Be a man about it like you were in response?

High round picks and high picks are different. I think people assumed high pick were top 5 or top 10 guys the Bills drafted.

[bledslow]

you made a ridiculously inaccurate statement by saying the good bills teams were built with high draft picks.. and you were proven 100% totally and completely wrong.. dont get pissy with me because your post looks like a total ****ing idiot.


PWNED





Btw,bills will be 4-12 this year,5-12 at best

[The Answer]

The defense really hasent beent that bad...

Am i missing something? Or are people just obsessed with how the team looks on paper like they always are?

The Answer knew their were PR moles from OBD drive posting on this board and this confirms it.

"The defense really hasn't been that bad" LOL

~The Answer

[Tatonka]

Shane Conlan wasn't a high round draft pick?
Frank Reich?
Thomas?
Reed?
Odoms?
Already agree Bruce was.


Be a man about it like you were in response?

conlan was 8th overall.. so i will give you that one.

nate odoms was a second round pick.

reed was a 4th round pick.

thomas was a 2nd round pick.

frank riech was a 3rd round pick.

my point was that you said that the superbowl teams were build of high draft picks.. i forgot about conlan, but all the guys we had back then (aside from conlan and bruce, were not high draft picks at all..

[TacklingDummy]

conlan was 8th overall.. so i will give you that one.

nate odoms was a second round pick.

reed was a 4th round pick.

thomas was a 2nd round pick.

frank riech was a 3rd round pick.

my point was that you said that the superbowl teams were build of high draft picks.. i forgot about conlan, but all the guys we had back then (aside from conlan and bruce, were not high draft picks at all..

They were built on both.

I said High Round, which doesn't mean just the first round.

Reich was the 1st pick in the 3rd round.
Odoms 1st pick in second round.
Reed, 2nd pick in 4th round.
Thomas 13th pick in 2nd round (40th overall)

I was wrong but not completely wrong.

[Tatonka]

fair enough.. when you said high picks.. i assume you mean actual high picks.. not first day picks..

[bocephuz]

7-9 ... I see this season as a carbon copy of last season.

They'll struggle mightily in the first half of the season ( tough teams+a lot of inexperience = bad news).However, the second half of the schedule looks very favorable and I think some of the young guys should start to "get it" by then and we should see some decent gelling and a nice little run of wins against weaker teams like Miami, Cleveland and the Giants.

This team is still way too young and short on talent to beat more than one or two playoff caliber teams this year ( I can see them beating Denver due to the emotion of the home opener ( Cutler may not be able to handle the pressure of that one) but other than that they'd be lucky to beat any of the good teams on the schedule.

[dplus47]

I think we can beat Denver.

agreed. denver looks bad right now, and they have a tendency to look bad in their openers. miami blew them out a couple of years ago. i'm not sure this saves the bills from a long season, but it's always nice for fans to get the first one early, and that's a possibility vs. the donks.

[Bone]

I just wanna beat pissburgh

[John Doe]

You'll all be craving Terrence Pennington by week four, that's how bad I think Walker is going to suck.

I don't know why you would possibly think that Pennington is better than Walker.

It boggles the mind.



Prediction: 4-12 ///// last in the AFC East.

(and I also predict Jauron and maybe even Levy get fired after the season)

At least you are consistent with your prediction of last year - you continue to believe that the Bills are little better than an expansion team.

I think that you will be equally wrong this year.

9-7

[Earthquake Enyart]

I thiought this was the other Pat. :ill:

[HHURRICANE]

I can't believe I am feeling worse now than I did a year ago at this time. How is this possible?

A few months ago I was at 9-7 but I'm hard pressed to give them more than 6 wins.

Sadly...6-10.

[gr8slayer]

It could be worse. At least we're not the Dolphins.

[BillsFever21]

An improvement(if that) on previous junk doesn't mean it is good.

If you live in a 40yr old trailer worth $5k and instead buy a house worth 12k does that make that house nice? It's an improvement over what you had before though so with your theory it must mean you have a house to brag about. It's still a cockroach infested dump that is being lived in.

As where Walker may be an improvement it doesn't mean he is good and our line will be good. You can have improvements but still suck. This guy gave up 11 sack last year. Blame it on Oakland all you want but it's his job to block the guy in front of him and he was terrible at it. Even the worst line in the league last year didn't want him. Oakland's line was the worst but our line was in the Top 5 worst in the league and Peters didn't give up 11 sacks.

This is the sad state of many Bills fans in this day of age. They are happy with what they got even if it is a slight improvement. Even if that improvement isn't good enough to make us a good team they are happy just not being mathematically out of the playoff hunt by Week 11.

If Walker is an improvement it isn't by much. A late round rookie draft choice in Pennington performed better then Walker did last year in only a half of season of football.

This line is still bad. Dockery is the only obvious upgrade but he is not a Top Guard in the game like Steve Hutchinson even though we paid him the same money. With how bad our line is it will take more then just a Top 10-15 Guard in the game to make it respectable. This line will still be bad this year whether it is a slight improvement. The slight improvements still doesn't make our OL in the Top half of the league. It might just be a Top 10 worst OL in the league instead of a Top 5. New players doesn't equal new results. The same was said for guys like Tutan Reyes last year at this time in the season about how our OL was improved because he was clearly better then Bennie Anderson from the year before. Did that make it a good OL?




IMO you lost a lot of credibility when you say the OL is not improved at all. While he is no pro bowler Walker is an improvement at RT. People seem to put a bullseye on his back but he has done admirable this preseason. Having Butler and Fowler out really hurt this offensive line and made it look porous. Dockery is coming along slower than hoped but will anchor with Peters to form a great left side.
Offensive lines take a while to build continuity and gel. They will get there. I wish they got cohesive in preseason but I blame it partly on injuries, partly on the players and partly on the country club setting of training camp. I guess one forgets how bad they were but to say they will not be any better after only a couple preseason games is poor analysis.

[BillsFever21]

An improvement(if that) on previous junk doesn't mean it is good.

If you live in a 40yr old trailer worth $5k and instead buy a house worth 12k does that make that house nice? It's an improvement over what you had before though so with your theory it must mean you have a house to brag about. It's still a cockroach infested dump that is being lived in.

As where Walker may be an improvement it doesn't mean he is good and our line will be good. You can have improvements but still suck. This guy gave up 11 sack last year. Blame it on Oakland all you want but it's his job to block the guy in front of him and he was terrible at it. Even the worst line in the league last year didn't want him. Oakland's line was the worst but our line was in the Top 5 worst in the league and Peters didn't give up 11 sacks.

This is the sad state of many Bills fans in this day of age. They are happy with what they got even if it is a slight improvement. Even if that improvement isn't good enough to make us a good team they are happy just not being mathematically out of the playoff hunt by Week 11.

If Walker is an improvement it isn't by much. A late round rookie draft choice in Pennington performed better then Walker did last year in only a half of season of football.

This line is still bad. Dockery is the only obvious upgrade but he is not a Top Guard in the game like Steve Hutchinson even though we paid him the same money. With how bad our line is it will take more then just a Top 10-15 Guard in the game to make it respectable. This line will still be bad this year whether it is a slight improvement. The slight improvements still doesn't make our OL in the Top half of the league. It might just be a Top 10 worst OL in the league instead of a Top 5. New players doesn't equal new results. The same was said for guys like Tutan Reyes last year at this time in the season about how our OL was improved because he was clearly better then Bennie Anderson from the year before. Did that make it a good OL?




IMO you lost a lot of credibility when you say the OL is not improved at all. While he is no pro bowler Walker is an improvement at RT. People seem to put a bullseye on his back but he has done admirable this preseason. Having Butler and Fowler out really hurt this offensive line and made it look porous. Dockery is coming along slower than hoped but will anchor with Peters to form a great left side.
Offensive lines take a while to build continuity and gel. They will get there. I wish they got cohesive in preseason but I blame it partly on injuries, partly on the players and partly on the country club setting of training camp. I guess one forgets how bad they were but to say they will not be any better after only a couple preseason games is poor analysis.

[Carlton Bailey]

Good stuff, Pat, but I can't see Ralph Wilson ever firing Marv Levy. In this case, rightly so. I think Levy has done a pretty good job so far. And four wins is a bit harsh. Seven seems about right.

[patmoran2006]

I was going to do a long, detailed write-up on how I think the Bills season was going to go. But decided against it because as soon as a few select homers read two sentences they'd stop reading and the thread would just get ripped to shreds with personal bull****. Guess what, I really don't care about spelling or grammar now, though just like with anything negative homer central will turn it into that instead of any actual football talk.

so I'll save myself the energy and trouble and get on with it; very informal and not really caring too much.



Offense: Very unimpressed. Lee Evans is a stud but that's all we have. Marshawn Lynch will develop into a solid back, but not with this brutal right side of the offensive line blocking for him. You'll all be craving Terrence Pennington by week four, that's how bad I think Walker is going to suck. Jason Whittle is a journeyman backup for a reason. And as the popular phrase ALL SPRING long on here went, I ask you.. Our offensive line as a whole is 'much improved' how?

Peerless Price will have a great game (like last week vs Tenn) then dissappear for a month. Josh Reed will give you exactly what he has for the past several years; good effort, occcasional production and not much else. Roscoe Parrish will be improved, maybe very much so.

Tight ends? LOL. Robert Royal sucks. Everett, wow he's showing us this preseason how serious he is about becoming important.

As for Losman. I think he is what he is. He's got heart a ton of it. He's getting leadership skills. He throws maybe the BEST long ball in all of football. But he's inaccurate FAR too often on short and medium passes, he's generally a horrible decision maker and his interceptions are amongst the ugliest I've ever seen.

Summary: I don't know any other way to say it. They are NOT good enough. Lynch is a rookie and needs a hell of a lot more from the OL after Peters and Dockery.. If you can find some magical way for Dock and Peters to block 11 guys on each play, then please let me know. Lynch will get better, but it will be a process. For those thinking of a 1300 yard rookie season, forget about it. Lee Evans will be huge like he was last year, mainly because he's SO good that even though teams know he's gonna get open deep, he still does. Price and Reed suck.. parrish is a solid three, royal is a wasted FA signing and Losman is the roller-coaster QB EVERYONE here deep down knows he is.


DEFENSE
Not only is this defense terrible. It may be one of the worst defenses I've EVER seen.

They honestly dont have a single strength on this unit. Schobel is good, VERY good in fact. But as a whole, the pass rush is inconsistent at best. They are BRUTAL against the run.. Kyle Williams has "heart" but what good does that do him when guys like Mangold are pushing back into the 5th row of the stands when they run the ball. Tripplett was a completely insignificant FA who got significant money. Darwin Walker was traded for but wouldnt even report. John McCargo has some talent but takes too many plays off, when he's not getting hurt.

Our LB corp is NOT good. Ellison cant tackle to save his life. Crowell is talented but battling injuries, again.. Poz will be a good linebacker anyone can see that.. But it will take some time, especially in this defense.

Our cornerbacks are such a joke there isnt a need for explanation.. The absolute worst in the entire NFL bar NONE. whitner and simpson are close to being considered a "strength" but arent there yet. Even if they are, they're not good enough to cover up for the 10 million times our CB's are going to get beat-- thats when an offense will even bother to need to throw the ball against us.

Summary: The worst defense in the division, maybe the worst defense in the league; and certainly one of the worst defenses this team has seen in well over a decade.
=====================================================
Special Teams: very good as always.

Schedule: Brutal. We can EASILY be out of the divisional race by the time the Monday nighter with Dallas is over.

OUTLOOK: Hate on me all you want. Im unbiased and I speak my mind. In 2008 I expect this team to be better. This year.. LOL I'm not blind. I dont think so.

They can't run and they cant stop the run. It's going to be a very ugly season when you can't do either of those right.

Prediction: 4-12 ///// last in the AFC East.

(and I also predict Jauron and maybe even Levy get fired after the season)
I'll admit I didnt think Losman would look THIS BAD..
And Jauron IS Headed towards the unemployment line, and Levy will hopefully follow him (retire Marv, you've been a legend in Buffalo, don't tarnish it by continuing to be over your head as a GM)